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High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

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The Ham

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The sensible option would be for DOR to be allowed to bid on all franchises. I would imagine that after a couple of resounding victories the other TOCs might up their game at bidding time.
On the surface, that would seem a good idea......but who would it rely on for working capital?

It could be possible to run the DOR "bids" so that they had defined returns to the government (i.e. if everything carried on within defined rules they would pay the government a set amount and would provide a, b & c as improvements over the existing situation).

It would then be for the TOC's to try to better that package without having sight of it (either by more improvements and/or more money to the government), if their package exceeds the DOR's "bid" then they are short listed.

Once short listed all the packages are compared and negotiations happen with the short-listed TOC's to get them to improve their offer and/or take on board some of the improvements suggested by others. If none get short listed then DOR runs the franchise for a set amount of time (say 7 years) and then re-tender the franchise.

Some of the more profitable franchises would then almost always be in the hands of the TOC's, however some others (i.e. Northern) may be DOR run from time to time as DOR may offer bids with much better improvements for only a little less return to the government.
 
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Moonshot

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Ham...what you have just described there is in fact what some opponents of HS2 were calling for....ie blind bids from the private sector, though in this case it includes the infrastructure. I wouldnt like to speculate however just how many bids would have been recieved.....I suspect none!!

In which case seen as though we as a nation have already voted for this ( it was in all 3 parties last election manifesto ) we cant complain if it ultimately turns out to be a white elephant. But we will never know that until the whole thing has been fully in operation for about 10 years or so....2042 by my estimate...
 

Realfish

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It was interesting today to hear a couple of people criticising the proposed 'sell-off' of the Government's stake in Eurostar. I know HS1 isn't Eurostar, but the argument today from politicians and analysts and the ubiquitous Wolmar went along the lines that it would be daft to sell it; Eurostar is profitable and it has brought regeneration and growth to the areas that it (and presumably SE HS services) serve.

Only a few weeks ago the anti-HS2'ers were saying that HS1 had been a failure (and again last night on a Five Live discussion, said HS2 wouldn't bring the hoped for growth).
 
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edwin_m

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E.On also opposed the building of East Mids Pkwy (EMD), but have since built a new pedestrian gate onto the access road so their staff can access it from their offices...

HS2@EMD aint gonna happen
Toton is a brownfield site & has much better connections to centres of population, more bus routes passing nearby & the Tram will be extended there.

Maybe so, although by 2032 the power station will presumably have gone leaving a large area of brownfield right next to the station.

The main advantage of the Parkway is that it has frequent train services to the major and some of the minor settlements in the East Midlands. Unfortunately the number of passengers joining/leaving HS2 probably isn't enough to fill a frequent connecting service, so these will either need a large subsidy or be introduced by diverting existing services and making other journeys longer.

However I do agree it won't have any tram connection and not much in the way of buses, though what is now the Nottingham Skylink might revert to the A453.
 

IKBrunel

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Hmm, good point that Ratcliffe coal fired power station is near end of life and in the absence of a viable carbon capture & storage technology, there won't be a new coal station built there. Certainly coal is dead in the UK as far as E.On is concerned. But I wonder if E.On would try to re-use the grid substation by putting a new gas or biomass plant there? It has the rail & road connections needed for biomass, but I suspect the cost of a new gas pipeline might exclude that option.
 

HowardGWR

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Hmm, good point that Ratcliffe coal fired power station is near end of life and in the absence of a viable carbon capture & storage technology, there won't be a new coal station built there. Certainly coal is dead in the UK as far as E.On is concerned. But I wonder if E.On would try to re-use the grid substation by putting a new gas or biomass plant there? It has the rail & road connections needed for biomass, but I suspect the cost of a new gas pipeline might exclude that option.

Knowing the asset strippers, it'll be housing they would want to build, except of course the site is on the flood plain (of course that's why the power station is there). One cannot deny that there is a case for EMP as it does sit on the junction. Who wants a tram when rail is available to both Beeston and Long Eaton directions? You could also much easier achieve platform to platform changes without reversing one's orientation. .
 

Kettledrum

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Maybe so, although by 2032 the power station will presumably have gone leaving a large area of brownfield right next to the station.

The main advantage of the Parkway is that it has frequent train services to the major and some of the minor settlements in the East Midlands. Unfortunately the number of passengers joining/leaving HS2 probably isn't enough to fill a frequent connecting service, so these will either need a large subsidy or be introduced by diverting existing services and making other journeys longer.

However I do agree it won't have any tram connection and not much in the way of buses, though what is now the Nottingham Skylink might revert to the A453.

There are also disadvantages in the idea of HS2 stopping at East Midlands Parkway instead of Toton.

1. East Midlands Parkway is surrounded by fields so simply isn't a destination in its own right. It would only be a railhead or transport interchange, whereas Toton has lots of residential areas within walking distance.
2. The potential brownfield site of the current power station at East Midlands parkway is on the wrong side of the station for HS2, and you'd need to huge re-modelling of the HS2 route to be able to use it.
3. Although the HS2 route goes very close to the East Midlands Parkway site it would be the other side of the car park, rather than next to the existing station buildings.
4. The HS2 route is on a curve when it goes to the East Midlands Parkway site, and the principle for the High Speed platforms is that they must be straight. The existing plans for the HS2 route would need extensive re-modelling to make it work, so it's not going to happen.

Best Way to use East Midlands Parkway might be for there to be a spur off High Speed 2 calling at East Midlands Parkway on route to terminating in central Nottingham. If you're going to do that though, you might as well build a station at East Midlands airport on the spur first.
 

edwin_m

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There are also disadvantages in the idea of HS2 stopping at East Midlands Parkway instead of Toton.

1. East Midlands Parkway is surrounded by fields so simply isn't a destination in its own right. It would only be a railhead or transport interchange, whereas Toton has lots of residential areas within walking distance.
2. The potential brownfield site of the current power station at East Midlands parkway is on the wrong side of the station for HS2, and you'd need to huge re-modelling of the HS2 route to be able to use it.
3. Although the HS2 route goes very close to the East Midlands Parkway site it would be the other side of the car park, rather than next to the existing station buildings.
4. The HS2 route is on a curve when it goes to the East Midlands Parkway site, and the principle for the High Speed platforms is that they must be straight. The existing plans for the HS2 route would need extensive re-modelling to make it work, so it's not going to happen.

Best Way to use East Midlands Parkway might be for there to be a spur off High Speed 2 calling at East Midlands Parkway on route to terminating in central Nottingham. If you're going to do that though, you might as well build a station at East Midlands airport on the spur first.

1. Depends what happens with the power station. Even if the whole area around Toton is built up with housing, it will still be a station where other access modes dominate over walk-up.

2, 3. No more than a couple of hundred metres away. A travolator or similar connection could be provided.

4. Indeed it is, but I don't think that was one of the stated reasons for HS2 to prefer Toton previously. I agree that creating a straight here would require quite a bit of change to the alignment to the south-west, but this is in a rural area so should be feasible if someone decided to look at it.

A spur into Nottingham has been ruled out, and although I think this is unfortunate I can see valid reasons relating both to the difficulties of engineering it and the level of demand not justifying a scarce path on the London-Birmingham section. I really can't see any merit in a station at East Midlands Airport, as the airport itself won't attract many passengers from outside the local area and being away from the classic rail network it has no scope for feeder rail services unlike either Parkway or Toton.
 

HowardGWR

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I admit I have not ploughed through all the original docs on HS2 (our colleague Chris125 has, I think) and am wondering what the demand figures are for two CC units from Derby and Nottingham that join at EMP and thread onto HS2 (and vice versa)?
 

IKBrunel

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HS2 at Toton has strong support from local MPs and councillors. They have figured its an easier sell (more local benefits) than more housing which was being looked at the current owners of the former Toton east yard and was being opposed heavily by residents of nearby Toton estates who use it for dog walking. Any discussion of HS2 station at EMD is academic really (sorry).
I'm not sure if councils will get Section 106 developers contributions from HS2 Ltd if it builds a station on their patch? but they would certainly get section 106 contributions from any other private developments on infill patches of land left once the HS2 station is built.

Said Toton residents have been successful in getting a number of footpaths registered on Toton East Yard, but that's also academic, HS2 will get them diverted.
 

edwin_m

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I admit I have not ploughed through all the original docs on HS2 (our colleague Chris125 has, I think) and am wondering what the demand figures are for two CC units from Derby and Nottingham that join at EMP and thread onto HS2 (and vice versa)?

What units? There is no connection to HS2 at EMP and no classic compatible service to either Derby or Nottingham.
 

edwin_m

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There isn't any HS2 (yet).

I admit I have not ploughed through all the original docs on HS2 (our colleague Chris125 has, I think) and am wondering what the demand figures are for two CC units from Derby and Nottingham that join at EMP and thread onto HS2 (and vice versa)?

Seeing as you are also using the present tense for something that is (or more correctly isn't) in the future then I don't see why you feel the need to criticise me for it.
 
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Chris125

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The problem with running classic-compatible trainsets into the existing Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield stations isn't how popular they'd be in isolation, but how the benefits compare to using the same paths for services that continue on the new line to Leeds/York/Newcastle etc - unsurprisingly HS2 Ltd found the latter produced greater benefits.

Chris
 

HowardGWR

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Seeing as you are also using the present tense for something that is (or more correctly isn't) in the future then I don't see why you feel the need to criticise me for it.
I'm not criticising you. Quite clearly I was examining a scenario but you didn't understand that. I think this discussion should end here (please).
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The problem with running classic-compatible trainsets into the existing Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield stations isn't how popular they'd be in isolation, but how the benefits compare to using the same paths for services that continue on the new line to Leeds/York/Newcastle etc - unsurprisingly HS2 Ltd found the latter produced greater benefits.

Chris

Yes I am sure it did, thanks for that. However this was prior to wider debate and I suspect the local councils may feel differently about it. My post was designed to explore whether the EMD stop could be more attračtive to the locals, even if it had a lower CBR.
 
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jon0844

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Just got this press release today:

HillgrovePR said:
Fibre-to-the-premises would be of more financial beneficial to Britain than HS2 say IT entrepreneur

The coalition government is forcing through plans to spend upwards of £45 billion on a new high speed railway (HS2) but bringing the country’s businesses access to superfast broadband through fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) would be cheaper and far more financial beneficial to the country says leading IT entrepreneur Scott Fletcher.

“The way we conduct business is rapidly changing and will continue to change in the future. The only thing that we can predict for certain is that the fast interchange of data will be an essential feature of the digital age,” said Scott Fletcher who is the chairman and founder of UK cloud infrastructure specialists ANS Group.

“The need for face to face business meetings, and hence the need for superfast trains, will become less important in a world that is more dependent on digital conferencing and mobile computing devices.

“By the time the first phase of HS2 becomes operational in 2026 it may well be now more than a quaint obsolescence,” he said.

Transport minister Patrick McLoughlin told the House of Commons that HS2 would be producing ‘around £50bn worth of economic benefits once it is up and running’ but even the National Audit Office disputes this figure.

The government's calculations include £12.6 billion for time saved on business travel, but the NAO reports this ‘uses a simplifying assumption that time spent travelling is unproductive’. To this end, it would be more productive to simply provide faster broadband and more carriages on existing inter-city trains.

“I just cannot accept that spending that amount of money on cutting a journey time from London to Birmingham by 20 minutes will have anything like the financial benefits that are claimed for HS2,” said Mr Fletcher.

“Superfast fibre-to-the-premises broadband would be of immense benefit to British business in the short term and would accelerate the development of new technology in the long term.

“If this country is to see any benefit from HS2 we should be accelerating growth and employment in the new technology centres in the north of England. We should be planning to build the railway from north to south and not the other way round,” said Mr Fletcher.

ABOUT SCOTT FLETCHER

Scott Fletcher is one of the country’s leading entrepreneurs, heading up companies with a total valuation in excess of £75m. Scott founded what is now his largest business, ANS Group, from his back bedroom in 1996 at the young age of 22.

Scott has overseen the growth of ANS since its inception, including floating on PLUS markets. The company now has a turnover of £50m and healthy net profit margins of approximately 10%. Scott is also Chairman and lead investor in Gödel Technologies.

Scott has been named Entrepreneur of the Year for the North West at the National Business Awards, IOD Young Director of the Year and The PLUS Markets Chairman of the Year.

Scott's has served on the board of FC United of Manchester and the Manchester Academy, and currently sits on the Greater Manchester Local Enterprise Partnership. He has also donated significant sums of money to The Prince’s Trust, Caudwell Children and The Manchester Children’s Hospital.

Given he uses the '20 minutes saving to Birmingham' suggests he's a paid up member of a certain organisation that spouts this nonsense. But hey, chuck some more carriages on current trains - job done!

I guess he'd rather the Government gave him some money to sell his servers and switches, and hasn't considered that HS2 will not hold back the improvements in broadband connectivity anyway and that we'd need (and get) both regardless.
 
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The Ham

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I guess he'd rather the Government gave him some money to sell his servers and switches, and hasn't considered that HS2 will not hold back the improvements in broadband connectivity anyway and that we'd need (and get) both regardless.

The problem with broadband investment is that it tends to to last very long. In that it wasn't that long ago when 1mb/s was a good broadband speed, and only a few years ago when up to 8mb/s was being criticised in the press for being miss leading as not everyone could get it. Whilst I've just signed up for up to 70mb/s.

Compare this to the majority of the rolling stock in the UK being built more than 10 years ago and the number of miles of new lines which have been built in the last 100 years!
 

tbtc

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Just got this press release today:

Given he uses the '20 minutes saving to Birmingham' suggests he's a paid up member of a certain organisation that spouts this nonsense. But hey, chuck some more carriages on current trains - job done!

I guess he'd rather the Government gave him some money to sell his servers and switches, and hasn't considered that HS2 will not hold back the improvements in broadband connectivity anyway and that we'd need (and get) both regardless.

Someone flogging something thinks that we should cut government spending on one thing, so we can all buy his product? :lol:

I've tried to explain to people that we've had broadband for many years now, most people of working age have mobile phones capable of "video conferencing", we've had huge great leaps forward in technology and yet we still see demand for rail travel going up and up.

If you'd shown me an iphone (or equivalent device) in the 1990s, and all the things that this pocketsized device can do, I'd have imagined that we'd all be working from home by 2013, nobody would need to commute to an office ever again, we'd have no more "rush hour". But however good technology gets, the demand for trains goes up and up.
 

jon0844

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His company sells equipment to keep the entire world connected, yet he seems to assume that people will all stay in one location if they get superfast broadband? Far from it, as the Internet opens up the world - people are travelling more, not less.

Many people are working from home at least some of their time, and any moves to have flexible season tickets might allow more people to do so (at the moment, you can't have a season ticket that takes into account working 1 or 2 days a week at home, especially if you don't even know what days they might be).

I work from home, but still travel into London regularly. To work from home all the time without going out would make me go stir crazy. In fact, if I have worked at home most of the week, it makes me want to go out and travel even more at weekends and holidays. Not everyone will become a hermit just because they've got fast Internet!

And there's also that other little detail that people miss. Our population is growing at a tremendous rate, so even if we got a lot more people working from home, I still can't see it being enough to reduce demand. All we can hope for is a little less congestion on some routes in the peaks, but when you already have off-peak services struggling in some places you need to build more capacity.

Like HS2 and beyond.
 
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WatcherZero

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The problem with broadband investment is that it tends to to last very long. In that it wasn't that long ago when 1mb/s was a good broadband speed, and only a few years ago when up to 8mb/s was being criticised in the press for being miss leading as not everyone could get it. Whilst I've just signed up for up to 70mb/s.

Compare this to the majority of the rolling stock in the UK being built more than 10 years ago and the number of miles of new lines which have been built in the last 100 years!

Telecommunications infrastructure also tends to be self financing, it makes enough revenues from business and residential customers to cover installation and servicing. It doesnt really need Government investment.
 

HSTEd

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Telecommunications infrastructure also tends to be self financing, it makes enough revenues from business and residential customers to cover installation and servicing. It doesnt really need Government investment.
For a certain portion fo the population

Long gone are the days when the GPO would hook anyone up who requested a line (although they might have to wait while they got an installation crew out).

Large swathes of the country are dark zones for internet.

IMO the solution would be a huge state programme to aim for universal point-to-point Fibre optic connections to every single household and business in the United Kingdom.
Would cost £20bn but would allow the same infrastructure to be used for univerasal broadband in the ten gigabit range as the speed required continues to increase.
Considering the amount spent on broadband in the UK its probably not a terrible investment in the long run.
For one thing you could effectively turn off things like FreeSAT.
 

jon0844

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I wonder when we'll reach a speed that's more than enough for most people (certainly residential and for most businesses). We've got 4K video coming and 8K will follow - but ultimately, there'll have to be a point where most people will never have a 16K or 32K HD TV in their home.

TV/video streaming is probably one of the biggest needs for fast broadband - and we're always working on better data compression to reduce file sizes.

Now I guess you might wish to download an Ultra HD movie and obviously the faster the better, but aren't we expecting that eventually we'll have a fast enough Internet connection that enables us to stream almost exclusively? Why download and fill storage space if you can access it in the cloud? Many companies like Google and Microsoft already want that reality now, even though we're not quite there yet.

I'm still making do with 4-6Mbps on ADSL, 20-25Mbps on 3G and around 50Mbps on 4G (but my 4G connection is capped at 8GB a month, which isn't much good). When I get FTTC broadband, I'll hopefully get around 60-70Mbps and I can't imagine that I'll need that for anything more than downloading files that much quicker. Naturally, I'll probably go for 100, 200 and higher but that's because I work in technology. I won't really need it!

That is unless I'll be wanting to stream 4K TV to multiple rooms in the house (different broadcasts) at the same time.

But, this is off topic - except for the fact that as said above, faster broadband will happen anyway and HS2 isn't going to stop it.
 

WatcherZero

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I dont know, true 3d tv? (rather than two offset 2d images) The bandwidth requirements for that would be atrocious. Theres already three dimensional projectors that use lasers or light projected onto smoke to create depth of image.

95% of homes will have broadband by 2017, its pretty much impractical to get universal coverage for the same reason free to air TV doesnt have 100% coverage forcing some people to rely on sattelite tv. However when a UK Company like Immarsat can afford to launch a Billion Pound sattelite network to provide global coverage offering 50Mbps down and 5Mbs up for only a few tens of thousands of subscribers then yes I would say it was self financing.
 
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HowardGWR

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But, this is off topic - except for the fact that as said above, faster broadband will happen anyway and HS2 isn't going to stop it.

The debate of course is about the other way around -will faster broadband negate the usefulness (word chosen carefully) of HS2. The difference,as an OP said, is that the the comms industry gets its finance with expectations of big profits so that public money is not involved, whereas HS2 will not happen without the tax paper being prepared to cough up.

I have wondered about that last sentence. Assuming HS2 could pass the planning hurdles, could it attract money in the same way as comms projects do?

A couple of decades ago, it was said that BR Inter-City was profitable. Could that be so for HS2?
 

HSTEd

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I dont know, true 3d tv? (rather than two offset 2d images) The bandwidth requirements for that would be atrocious.
Frankly I am not entirely sure how you would practically image things in 3D, so bandwidth is hardly our problem.

A 4320p 100fps 3D image with a 22.2 channel surround sound will apparently eat about 600-1000Mbps once compresssion for transmission is complete.
This is effectively the highest performance television standard we will ever require since at that point it appears we have hit the resolution limits imposed by human physiology.

So 1-10GBps should be able to cope, which is well within the capability of reasonable cost P2P FTTH connections. (If you are going for FTTH you are better off going P2P anyway since it turns out fibre costs almost nothing, it is just the cost of digging the trenches in the first place that dominates over everything, including maintenance)

Theres already three dimensional projectors that use lasers or light projected onto smoke to create depth of image.
Most of those volumetric systems are of questionable usefulness as an entertainment system because of the horrible buzzing noise made by many types, especially the ones that use laser ionisation of the air.

95% of homes will have broadband by 2017,
According to the ONS there will be roughly 23 million households in the United Kingdom by 2017, which means there will be 1,150,000 households without broadband?

That is quite a lot really.
Additionally many of the areas will have only broadband as it is understood today, some of which have connections slower than my first ever broadband connection (300kbps) which is effectively useless for most of the value added tasks that can be performed with broadband these days.

I am afraid that this is another case of "go big or go home".
Universal fibre broadband would have numerous benefits, both directly to the state's finances and indirectly to the populace in terms of increased convenience, economic activity and acccess to huge quantities of information and entertainment.

its pretty much impractical to get universal coverage for the same reason free to air TV doesnt have 100% coverage forcing some people to rely on sattelite tv.
Universal Coverage is only impractical because the state is unwilling to pay for it. Numerous studies by various engineering consultancies have priced up the entire programme at around the ~£20bn mark.
It's about as practical as having effectively universal provision of running water and electricity, which we have now, largely due to the action of state monopolies that were run on the basis that access to these services was critical to the functioning of society. For instance, see the provisions of the 'Electric Lighting (Clauses) Act 1899'.

Broadband is rapidly becoming just as critical to functioning in a modern society and will provide numerous benefits in terms of reduced expenditure on services that it partially replaces, such as conventional television broadcasting.

However when a UK Company like Immarsat can afford to launch a Billion Pound sattelite network to provide global coverage offering 50Mbps down and 5Mbs up for only a few tens of thousands of subscribers then yes I would say it was self financing.

Unfortunately if you ever try to actually price up an Immarsat data plan you can rapidly see why it is self financing.
And lets not forget the Iridium fiasco.

But anyway, back on topic.
 
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LexyBoy

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What I tell people ridiculing HS2 is:
HS2 is an engineering solution thought up by Network Rail to the problem of how best to deal with network capacity, which has gained political support because (a) it's the best solution and (b) it is likely to have wider economic benefits.

rather than HS2 being a political project which is being imposed on the Railway, which is I think how it is seen.

Fair assessment?
 

IKBrunel

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I would be interested to see a 10-15 point timeline of key milestones leading up to Adonis announcing HS2.
Would probably include

end of WCML upgrade
NR new lines report
Climate Change Act
various greengauge reports
Decision not to build heathrow 3rd runway

but I'm not clear on the chronology..
 
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