High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[MidlandMainlie]

Several of tommorows papers look like they have had early access to a Network Rail study on economics/alternatives to HS2 which states that without HS2 there would be 14 years of disruption from the upgrading of existing lines. Nothing been published yet on NR website?

Edit: Seems all the major media groups have had access to the Governments revised business case for HS2 that will be published on Tuesday and includes reports from NR and Atkins.

Report will say upgrading the WCML, ECML, and MML will require 2,770 weekend closures totalling 144,000 hours of disruption.

This could really come back to bite Ed Balls in the proverbial. Imagine the government comments of "Labours Alternative" and think they know better than Network Rail.

 

[billio]

The only problem with threatening 14 years of disuption if HS2 does not go ahead is the hiatus for many northern cities left waiting 20 years or more for the second phase to be built.
Improvements are needed sooner than that, and if these improvement will go ahead as part of the promised non-HS2 rail investment, what's the difference ?.

 

[jones_bangor]

I suspect many eyes will be on the revised cost-benefit ratio.

Some suggestions that if it's less than 1.5, HS2 is in big trouble, especially as a project like this one will probably run over budget, eroding the figure further.

One thing about Great Central is that it will take freight off the other lines?

 

[jon0844]

I might be a little naive, but I can't see why it would almost certainly run over budget when it's a new-build (bar, say, encountering some unknown problems when tunnelling or something).

By comparison, I'd have little faith in believing any budgets for upgrading existing lines.

Yet clearly the anti-HS2 brigade will play it like this;

a) Discount any revised budgets for HS2 as they'll clearly overrun - so £50bn, £80bn.. who knows?

b) Gladly accept any price for upgrading the existing lines, so as to show how much cheaper it will be and therefore the obvious and logical choice.

 

[ainsworth74]

Also considering that the contingency fund is already a massive part of the £50bn budget that the overrun of budget would have to be gigantic for it to increase the cost.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Also considering that the contingency fund is already a massive part of the £50bn budget that the overrun of budget would have to be gigantic for it to increase the cost.

Wouldn't let that get in the way or reopening the great central. Because apparently they can upgrade Marylebone, get through Leicester and Nottingham and do loads of work in Manchester, as well as reopen the Woodhead and many other things for 6 billion. Dream world, i would put at least double that on it.

 

[Lankyline]

So all of a sudden alternatives start to appear, just watch the political manoeuvring begin, what's the next alternative reopen peak district?? Hack off sustrans ? ( personally wouldn't object to that ) compulsory purchase, implications for heritage rail etc etc the list goes on, all in the name of politics & the next election. The question is what would the best alternative be to HS2 ?

 

[HSTEd]

I suspect many eyes will be on the revised cost-benefit ratio.

Some suggestions that if it's less than 1.5, HS2 is in big trouble, especially as a project like this one will probably run over budget, eroding the figure further.

One thing about Great Central is that it will take freight off the other lines?

It would have to run 30% of its projected budget to "go over budget".
If not more.

The actual construction is only projected to cost something like £28bm/

 

[Domeyhead]

I suspect many eyes will be on the revised cost-benefit ratio.

Some suggestions that if it's less than 1.5, HS2 is in big trouble, especially as a project like this one will probably run over budget, eroding the figure further.

One thing about Great Central is that it will take freight off the other lines?

Does anyone know the financial performance (and original C/BR) of Section 2 of HS1? What is interesting is that this line had to be built to make sense of the prior Tunnel+Section 1 investment, yet its own capital cost must have been at least as high as HS2 in real terms. I have heard that has never even come close to achieving its forecast loading despite Eurotunnel and Eurostar now making operating profits.

 

[Loki]

Does anyone know the financial performance (and original C/BR) of Section 2 of HS1? What is interesting is that this line had to be built to make sense of the prior Tunnel+Section 1 investment, yet its own capital cost must have been at least as high as HS2 in real terms. I have heard that has never even come close to achieving its forecast loading despite Eurotunnel and Eurostar now making operating profits.

I can't give you exact numbers but HS2 will not have these problems for sure. When HS1 was built cheap air flights did not exist. HS2 has a different purpose that no other means of transport will take care of during its construction.

 

[pablo]

Judging by the hiatus on the WCML this morning, south of Rugby, HS2 cannot come too soon. Exceptional Wx? But this sort of thing is happening frequently for one reason or another, which suggests that it's over stressed at present.

 

[YorkshireBear]

BBC report this morning has someone from action alliance saying network rail are lying and that WCML only needs work in three places to provide enough capacity. She should do stand up. I have seen the report there is no chance.

 

[HSTEd]

Only three places..... Euston, Lichfield Trent valley and Wigan

 

[Loki]

BBC report this morning has someone from action alliance saying network rail are lying and that WCML only needs work in three places to provide enough capacity. She should do stand up. I have seen the report there is no chance.

Oh, so that person completely ignores the need of gauge clearances? Okay.
Also, can you please link us to the report if it's available to the public yet?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Oh, so that person completely ignores the need of gauge clearances? Okay.
Also, can you please link us to the report if it's available to the public yet?

I can not sorry as I am on my phone.
It is based around 51M proposals ao search that in google. It is a good read what they are suggesting basically removes all local services off WCML and offers no real improvements to MML and ECML.

 

[The Ham]

The 14 years of disruption, if the upgrade of the existing lines goes ahead, may be in addition to HS2 - although HS2 would likely be starting start 5 to 10 years later than currently planned.

This would be because rail growth has been storming ahead of where the model used for determining if HS2 was needed. As such if the upgrades to the existing lines happen (which would then allow for an increase in the number of passengers) it is likely that even those upgrades would be insufficient within a fairly short time frame. Therefore either more upgrades would be needed or HS2 would be needed.

If at that point HS2 was built then the upgrades would be almost worthless until such time as passenger numbers were overloading the existing lines again. Whilst if further upgrades were chosen then the increases in capacity would be either smaller steps and/or for much higher costs.

It may even be found that during the upgrades that the upgrades will not be enough and that HS2 would need to be started on at the same time as the upgrades with the upgrades being used to just keep the network coping with passenger numbers until such time as HS2 is finished.

Conversely if HS2 phase 1 is built and during its construction (or at least before Phase 2 is started on) the number of passengers on the railways falls (and it would have to be very dramatic i.e. more than 15%, as that is where we're at now!) then passenger numbers would be no worse than they were when HS2 was first envisaged with a by-pass to a very busy section of railway. If the fall didn't happen until after phase 2 was started on then fall would have to be even more dramatic. Either way we're hardly likely to be left with a train line which wasn't used.

Alternatively, if HS2 goes ahead it may even be possible that there will be the need for a number of the upgrades to be built to keep the network coping with passenger numbers until such time as HS2 is finished and/or to provide the existing network with the ability to run more services to more places once HS2 is built.

 

[gordonthemoron]

I can not sorry as I am on my phone.
It is based around 51M proposals ao search that in google. It is a good read what they are suggesting basically removes all local services off WCML and offers no real improvements to MML and ECML.

So I was right when I posted on Daily Mail website that without HS2 they'd have to close all commuter stations south of Rugby then?

 

[WatcherZero]

Anyone also notice Action Alliances 'Alternative Investment Strategy' spends a fortune on road and local rail schemes, but not a single pound in their own areas..... Its like they dont want investment in their backyard or something!

 

[Philip Elliott]

So I was right when I posted on Daily Mail website that without HS2 they'd have to close all commuter stations south of Rugby then?

No you were wrong. The 51m report is a suggestion of services on the fast lines. The slow lines report has never been released to the public.

 

[Polo Mint]

Isn't the government doing a crucial vote this week? I will be waiting eagerly to see how it turns out, I can imagine there will be a few rebel MP's.

The government is doing a lot of fighting this week, with the article claiming that the alternative to HS2 would be upgrading existing lines, which would close lines on weekends for 14 years.

 

[WatcherZero]

Could be a few rebels, its a crucial vote yes but not expected to be challenged, more crucual will be another vote later. Labour MP's have apparently been encouraged to use this week as a fallow week if they want/need so they wont be mounting a challenge on the vote or whipped to attend Westminster.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I see that the Goverment will today set forth its fifth HS2 project explanation.

 

[Ironside]

Isn't the government doing a crucial vote this week? I will be waiting eagerly to see how it turns out, I can imagine there will be a few rebel MP's.

The government is doing a lot of fighting this week, with the article claiming that the alternative to HS2 would be upgrading existing lines, which would close lines on weekends for 14 years.

On Thursday the third vote on the preparation bill takes place in the house of commons, after which it goes on to the house of lords. The main bill starts to go to the house of commons next spring.

 

[HSTEd]

Anyone got a link to this document?

 

[IKBrunel]

http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2013-14/highspeedrailpreparation.html

shows timetable & link to pdf of actual bill

 

[WessexEclectic]

This would be because rail growth has been storming ahead of where the model used for determining if HS2 was needed. As such if the upgrades to the existing lines happen (which would then allow for an increase in the number of passengers) it is likely that even those upgrades would be insufficient within a fairly short time frame. Therefore either more upgrades would be needed or HS2 would be needed.

Do you have a reference for this underestimated growth? Given the growth of passengers after 'privatisation' was not predicted, why are the models right this time? Thanks!

 

[Ironside]

BBC writes that benefit ratio drops from 2.5 to 2.3.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24721214

Alls fine then!

 

[gordonthemoron]

according to yesterday's Daily Wail, there's only 50 miles of GCR missing and it'd only cost £6 billion (omitting trains, Crossrail2 etc) & it's Bern gauge (that's what they meant, they probably don't know what Bern gauge is). They also think GCR goes to Birmingham.

What they neglected to mention was that commuters south of Aylesbury would lose their services completely amongst various other half truths and pie in the sky thinking. Plus they totally ingnored the fact that the Woodhead tunnels are used by National Grid.

 

[HowardGWR]

BBC writes that benefit ratio drops from 2.5 to 2.3.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24721214

Alls fine then!

Yes, Richard Westcott reports
'they've now cut by a third the value of business time lost on a train (from £47.18 an hour to £31.96 an hour)'.

This was referred to by me a while back. Travelling on firm's business has a higher value for time saved than (for example) leisure travellers.

Opponents moaned that people can now work on the train. Actually we have to assume they will have super wifi on all HS2 trains which is reasonable.

However, I am sure you are now thinking, 'hold on, won't they also have it on conventional trains, so that the time saved is only that portion of the journey when no work is being done?'

What (without seeing the detailed calculations) is interesting to me is 'with which transport method are they comparing and how many of each.'

If people change from WCML to HS2 then the above applies. If they switch from car or plane to HS2, the benefits are huge indeed. Even if theoretically the plane was slightly quicker overall (not from Brum it isn't for example) the fact you can't use wifi makes an enormous difference except when you are faffing about in the departure lounge. Just some thoughts.

 

[ainsworth74]

Plus they totally ingnored the fact that the Woodhead tunnels are used by National Grid.

Though I believe it's been stated that the National Grid could use the old Woodhead tunnels leaving the 'new' tunnel for rail use. They just chose the new tunnel simply becuase it was newer.