High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[Planman]

I am not suggesting that EVERY train will be empty. However each train has a thousand seats, I am not sure of the 1st Standard mix, and upto 14 trains an hour, bearing in mind an 11 car Pendalino has 589, 25% are First. That is a hell of lot of seats to fill.

For those of us who do not get free travel, £ is the main driver. HS2 is a premium product, HS1 carries a 25% fare premium., and the Transport Secretary has stated that if you do not book in advance you will pay a lot of money on HS2. If you are on business, normally you want flexibility and may not be able to book at the last minute. And according to the Transport Secretary this is going to benefit business. If you have a large expense account I am sure it will be great.

Whoever wins the franchise will have to pay lots of money for it so therefore they will want to charge high fares.

KPMG report, TGV and everyone else says that to be successful high speed travel has to be affordable and that is totally contrary to the Government policy of making punters pay more. Just look at the number of empty firsts class seats and people standing in the standard section. Why is it so strange that people will continue to use the normal services if HS2 is too expensive.

 

[HSTEd]

I am not suggesting that EVERY train will be empty. However each train has a thousand seats, I am not sure of the 1st Standard mix, and upto 14 trains an hour, bearing in mind an 11 car Pendalino has 589, 25% are First. That is a hell of lot of seats to fill.

The figures I derived from TGV Duplex seating plans for a 400m TGV-GC esque set come out at:
1352 Total Seats
-1108 Standard Class
- 244 First Class
- 3 dedicated wheelchair slots

And Bombardier claims that you can manage 18 trains per hour reliably, although not all of them are Captive sets, and a lashup of 2 200m Compatible sets will tend towards only 700 seats.

For those of us who do not get free travel, £ is the main driver. HS2 is a premium product, HS1 carries a 25% fare premium.

HS1 still has reasonable alternatives to the other end because it was not built to relieve capacity overload in Kent, it was built because the Eurostar's slow moving tour of Kent was embarassing when compared to the dash across northern France on the other side of the channel.

The idea is that HS2 will be the only product for city-to-city travel along its corridor, not the 'premium one'.

, and the Transport Secretary has stated that if you do not book in advance you will pay a lot of money on HS2.

You may not have noticed, but you pay a lot of money on the WCML if you do not book in advance, it makes little difference.

Whoever wins the franchise will have to pay lots of money for it so therefore they will want to charge high fares.

.... That doesn't follow.
The operator will want maximum income.
If charging more always lead to greater income then the operator could just charge £1bn per seat.

Cheap fares may not raise much income per seat, but they raise a hell of a lot more than the fare you can charge on an empty seat (which is zero).

The best way to make money in High Speed Rail is to pile 'em high, sell 'em cheap.

KPMG report, TGV and everyone else says that to be successful high speed travel has to be affordable and that is totally contrary to the Government policy of making punters pay more. Just look at the number of empty firsts class seats and people standing in the standard section. Why is it so strange that people will continue to use the normal services if HS2 is too expensive.

Because the prices won't be too expensive.
Because they will be cheaper.

Remember, this may be an odd concept, but the politician is probably lying.
You should have more trust in what KPMG and SNCF are saying because they don't have to handle things for short term political gain.

 

[edwin_m]

Steam roller it through? I wouldn't say 10 years from early planning to first construction is steam rolling it through. Steam rolling it through is what we did when we first built the railways.

Heathrow even more so. Built under WW2 emergency powers but with no real wartime use and the firm intention to make it the main civil airport afterwards.

 

[AndyLandy]

I am not suggesting that EVERY train will be empty. However each train has a thousand seats, I am not sure of the 1st Standard mix, and upto 14 trains an hour, bearing in mind an 11 car Pendalino has 589, 25% are First. That is a hell of lot of seats to fill.

For those of us who do not get free travel, £ is the main driver. HS2 is a premium product, HS1 carries a 25% fare premium., and the Transport Secretary has stated that if you do not book in advance you will pay a lot of money on HS2.

I'm sorry, this is just nonsense. If we run 14,000 seats every hour up HS2, that's a huge number of people to move. There's no way you'll find anything close to that number of people who'll pay a 'premium' fare. The HS2 operator will almost certainly look at a quota-controlled model, just like just about every other successful transport service does. There'll be some expensive fares, and some cheap ones.

For sure, the WCML operator of the time might look to sell some promotional fares to try and cash in on some long-distance customers who are happy to take a slower service (much as London Midland do currently) but even in the current system, it's possible to get Virgin tickets cheaper than LM ones. I don't see any reason this would be different for HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

I doubt the ICWC replacement would be able to grab significant numbers of passengers from the HS2 operator using the "cheap fares, don't care about time" model.

Since London Midland and its successors can do that cheaper and slower than Virgin can.

 

[jon0844]

HS2 doesn't even need to operate at full capacity from day one anyway. It will be around for a while.

If, and it's a big if, trains are somehow left empty then the timetable will be adjusted accordingly.

I don't see our population falling anytime soon (bar some natural disaster or plague) so I still think we'll be okay in the long term.

 

[tbtc]

HS2 doesn't even need to operate at full capacity from day one anyway. It will be around for a while

An important point - its not about solving all of 2013's problems, or even solving all of 2033's problems, but 2053, 2073...

 

[RichmondCommu]

What's the answer though?

We're not allowed any infrastructure improvements that don't equally benefit everywhere?

That way lies pork barrel politics.

Well thats the problem, there isn't an answer! Which is exactly why the travelling public are going to continue to question the wisdom of spending £50bn on a single railway line. Not to mention a railway line that doesn't serve any new destinations.

I have an organisation of people who all commute into London. For those who commute in from Northants it seems like a great idea. For everybody else it seems to be a case of using a sledge hammer to crack a nut. That's not my opinion, it's the opinion of SE commuters.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Isn't part of the reason for HS2 to "bridge the north-south divide"?
If you invest in the "north" it inevitably means the money will not be spent in the "south".
We've had decades of disinvestment in the north and HS2 attempts to rebalance things a little.

I have to say I have my doubts about this given how difficult it will be to encourage people to relocate to the North without paying out a fortune in compensation.

I find it hard to believe that unique places like Cambridge will lose out economically, and Aberdeen has its place as the UK oil capital which HS2 is not going to change.

For what its worth, given that the North Sea oil and gas fields are in terminal decline Aberdeen is screwed.

In fact, lower journey times on HS2 will benefit everywhere in Scotland.

Given that Scotland appears to be hell bent on independence, why should we be concerned with them?

 

[tbtc]

Well thats the problem, there isn't an answer! Which is exactly why the travelling public are going to continue to question the wisdom of spending £50bn on a single railway line. Not to mention a railway line that doesn't serve any new destinations

As you are aware, HS2 is one of a number of schemes/ improvements that we are going to see over the next generation, it's not the single solution to everything.

We're not betting £50bn on everything - its one of a number of schemes.

Not sure why you are criticising it for not serving any new destinations, given the amount of criticism that it's already had for serving Totton!

 

[RichmondCommu]

As you are aware, HS2 is one of a number of schemes/ improvements that we are going to see over the next generation, it's not the single solution to everything.

We're not betting £50bn on everything - its one of a number of schemes.

Not sure why you are criticising it for not serving any new destinations, given the amount of criticism that it's already had for serving Totton!

As previously stated these are the opinions of other people commuting into London, not my own! As such I'm not the one criticising the lack of new destinations but for the traveling public who don't use the WCML it does appear to be a lot of money. Hence my point about trying to win over hearts and minds!

 

[AndyLandy]

I doubt the ICWC replacement would be able to grab significant numbers of passengers from the HS2 operator using the "cheap fares, don't care about time" model.

Since London Midland and its successors can do that cheaper and slower than Virgin can.

Will there even be an ICWC service? Surely there'll be the commuter service (London Midland's successor) and HS2. I can see the West Midlands franchisee having some semi-fast services, but I don't see the WCML carrying full-on IC traffic, post-HS2.

Not sure why you are criticising it for not serving any new destinations, given the amount of criticism that it's already had for serving Totton!

Haha! I somehow can't see HS2 (or any HS) line ever serving Totton. Now Toton, that's possibly a different matter.

 

[HSTEd]

Those hearts and minds aren't winnable.

They will only be satisfied by the axing of the project, which is not an acceptable result.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Will there even be an ICWC service? Surely there'll be the commuter service (London Midland's successor) and HS2. I can see the West Midlands franchisee having some semi-fast services, but I don't see the WCML carrying full-on IC traffic, post-HS2.

I doubt it somehow, I think the rump ICWC operations will be folded into the LM-succesor.

 

[Philip Elliott]

Will there even be an ICWC service? Surely there'll be the commuter service (London Midland's successor) and HS2. I can see the West Midlands franchisee having some semi-fast services, but I don't see the WCML carrying full-on IC traffic, post-HS2.

Apart from Coventry, Stoke, Macclesfield, Chester etc etc

How many times does it need to be mentioned:roll::roll:

 

[tbtc]

As previously stated these are the opinions of other people commuting into London, not my own! As such I'm not the one criticising the lack of new destinations but for the traveling public who don't use the WCML it does appear to be a lot of money. Hence my point about trying to win over hearts and minds!

People commuting into London are seeing a lot of money spent on Crossrail, upgrading Thameslink, electrifying the GWML (two coach 165s replaced by EMUs)...

...nobody ever worried about the "hearts and minds" of those outside the capital when it came to making those investment decisions.

 

[AndyLandy]

Apart from Coventry, Stoke, Macclesfield, Chester etc etc

How many times does it need to be mentioned:roll::roll:

What makes you think they'll continue to get an ICWC service? I can see Stoke/Macclesfield/Chester potentially being served by HS2 CC stock, or by semi-fast services under the West Midlands franchise.

 

[tbtc]

Apart from Coventry, Stoke, Macclesfield, Chester etc etc

How many times does it need to be mentioned:roll::roll:

Do people travelling from Coventry to London expect a full meal on board?

If Stoke to London justifies 125mph running with a buffet car and the likes then am sure there'll be a market for a TOC providing that kind of service.

If these places only get the current level of service because they are on the way to somewhere else then that becomes a different story.

 

[TheGrew]

Apart from Coventry, Stoke, Macclesfield, Chester etc etc

How many times does it need to be mentioned:roll::roll:

The only destination on that list that WONT be able to be operated by CC stock coming off HS2 Phase 1 will be Coventry which lets face it isn't all that far from the Birmingham Interchange Station. Yes the speed of connectivity between Milton Keynes and place like Chester, Stoke etc will most likely get slower. However are these really big markets?

 

[HSTEd]

Going from a Pendolino to a 110mph Class 350 type service costs something like 6 minutes on Coventry-London.

Hardly catastrophic.

 

[Philip Elliott]

What makes you think they'll continue to get an ICWC service? I can see Stoke/Macclesfield/Chester potentially being served by HS2 CC stock, or by semi-fast services under the West Midlands franchise.

Have you even read any of the HS2 documentation? Where are these magic paths to accomodate additional CC services/ Do you really expect Chester passengers to put up with a 350 taking an hour longer or do you want them to drive to Crewe (that'll do wonders for road congestion):roll:

The only destination on that list that WONT be able to be operated by CC stock coming off HS2 Phase 1 will be Coventry which lets face it isn't all that far from the Birmingham Interchange Station. Yes the speed of connectivity between Milton Keynes and place like Chester, Stoke etc will most likely get slower. However are these really big markets?

So in your mind we should only target London bound passengers and screw everybody else? What a wonderful vision you have:roll:

Pray tell how people get from Coventry to Birmingham airport without adding to congestion along the M6 or A45 or could you explain why they should head in the wrong direction and then pay for a more expensive ticket.

And you wonder why so many people prefer ro drive with attitudes like that.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Pray tell how people get from Coventry to Birmingham airport without adding to congestion along the M6 or A45 or could you explain why they should head in the wrong direction and then pay for a more expensive ticket.

They will probably get the train?

 

[NSEFAN]

Have you even read any of the HS2 documentation? Where are these magic paths to accomodate additional CC services/ Do you really expect Chester passengers to put up with a 350 taking an hour longer or do you want them to drive to Crewe (that'll do wonders for road congestion)

Why are you talking about class 350s and journeys taking longer. Surely express journeys to Stoke/Macclesfield/Chester can use HS2 phase 1 using classic-compatible high speed sets, so they can use the existing line north of Birmingham?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Why are you talking about class 350s and journeys taking longer. Surely express journeys to Stoke/Macclesfield/Chester can use HS2 phase 1 using classic-compatible high speed sets, so they can use the existing line north of Birmingham?

What he is saying is there isn't the spare paths for that to happen...

In my eyes it adds more case to the Eastern direct leg to Leeds.

 

[tbtc]

So in your mind we should only target London bound passengers and screw everybody else? What a wonderful vision you have:roll:

One moment people complain about the "downgrading" of services from Stoke to London, but when people suggest what alternative services may run in twenty years time (maybe broadly similar to now, but with an extra stop or two to improve frequencies in Trent Valley/ Milton Kenyes (etc) they are criticised for being London obsessed?

And do you really think there'll be only a couple of trains an hour from Coventry to Birmingham? Doubt it...

 

[AndyLandy]

Where are these magic paths to accomodate additional CC services

They're currently being used by Pendolinos.

 

[RichmondCommu]

People commuting into London are seeing a lot of money spent on Crossrail, upgrading Thameslink, electrifying the GWML (two coach 165s replaced by EMUs)...

...nobody ever worried about the "hearts and minds" of those outside the capital when it came to making those investment decisions.

That's because none of those examples have cost £50bn! I appreciate that Crossrail is costing a lot of money (£20bn) but London is the power house of the UK economy and needs to maintain its position in the world.

Hearts and minds are very important with regard to HS2, especially given that political decisions are often made on the back of public opinion. And no Government is immune from U turns.

 

[HSTEd]

You could run a turn up and go service between Coventry and Birmingham International over the loop line thanks to the lack of fast-running Pendolinos (it would be all shacks but that is not terrible overall I would think).

6tph or more enough for you?

And there is no evidence that the via HS2 ticket would be "more expensive".
It would likely be cheaper as it costs the state less to subsidise a HS2 seat than a classic one (which would take 66 minutes or maybe slightly more depending on stopping pattern).

 

[Philip Elliott]

They're currently being used by Pendolinos.

where are the paths on HS2 to allow the additional CC services you speak of?

 

[tbtc]

That's because none of those examples have cost £50bn! I appreciate that Crossrail is costing a lot of money (£20bn) but London is the power house of the UK economy and needs to maintain its position in the world.

Hearts and minds are very important with regard to HS2, especially given that political decisions are often made on the back of public opinion. And no Government is immune from U turns.

So nobody worries about Northeners' "hearts and minds" when it comes to spending billions on London, but when the same funding stream starts being spent on HS2 (once Crossrail has been completed), we have to keep those down south happy?

(removes tongue from cheek)

 

[HSTEd]

You're being incredibly dense, where are the paths on HS2 to allow the additional CC services you speak of, the 390s aren't using them:roll:

18 paths available.
9 for the Captive services.

That leaves 9 slots, or 18 200m CC services, an hour for classic compatible trains.

I think we can match ICWC path for path without too much trouble.

 

[AndyLandy]

You're being incredibly dense, where are the paths on HS2 to allow the additional CC services you speak of, the 390s aren't using them:roll:

OK, firstly you can lose the ad hominems, there's no need for it.

I find it remarkable that HS2 is going to be at capacity from day one. Are we really saying that there won't be any capacity for a couple of additional CC services per hour?

It seems crazy to me to invest so much into the new line, only for it to pick up only some of the existing ICWC traffic. Surely it makes the most sense to put freight and regional/stopping services on the WCML and punt as much of the IC stuff to HS2 as possible.

If I'm wrong, feel free to explain why. Educate me, so I know better.