High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[Tobbes]

I think that he also addressed a question I've been banging on about - the current timetable is based on simply moving the DfT Crossrail budget to HS2. This asks the question:

"How much HS2 can I build next year for £2bn?"

rather than

"Work out the most efficient way of building HS2, and tell me how much it will cost next year."

No one has suggested a major engineering reason that there couldn't be multiple bits of the build happening at once, though there is a legal/political one: the hybrid bill covers only phase 1, so the phase 2 plan / build will be later. But there's no reason why phase 2 shouldn't include the Scottish link, and be built as efficiently as possible.

Tobbes

 

[Chris125]

Did he? I thought he just gave a pretty standard we will look at all options type answer suggesting that the Northern section could be built faster than 20 years and the Independent read too much into it.

That's the impression I had too, I really can't imagine he would even consider delaying Euston-Birmingham but bringing forward completion of phase 2 is a different matter.

According to the Yorkshire Post he answered a question about starting in the north as follows:

“We should certainly look at it,” he said. “At the moment it’s driven by the legislative process.

“The current timetable has the Royal Assent for the second stage in 2020. That’s a long way from now... Surely we can make that quicker. If we can, all options are open.”

Sir David made clear he intends to “look closely” at how the benefits of HS2 can be brought forward, as the Government battles to shore up support for the flagship infrastructure scheme, which has been repeatedly criticised by MPs over recent months.

“I think if you’re in the North, you want to see the benefits earlier,” he said. “I don’t think people want to wait until 2032 or 2035 to see the benefit, and that is something I will look closely at.”

Chris

 

[MidlandMainlie]

That's the impression I had too, I really can't imagine he would even consider delaying Euston-Birmingham but bringing forward completion of phase 2 is a different matter.

According to the Yorkshire Post he answered a question about starting in the north as follows:

“We should certainly look at it,” he said. “At the moment it’s driven by the legislative process.

“The current timetable has the Royal Assent for the second stage in 2020. That’s a long way from now... Surely we can make that quicker. If we can, all options are open.”

Sir David made clear he intends to “look closely” at how the benefits of HS2 can be brought forward, as the Government battles to shore up support for the flagship infrastructure scheme, which has been repeatedly criticised by MPs over recent months.

“I think if you’re in the North, you want to see the benefits earlier,” he said. “I don’t think people want to wait until 2032 or 2035 to see the benefit, and that is something I will look closely at.”

Chris

I think we all would like to see the phase 2 construction brought forward, maybe starting at both ends and meeting in the middle. However what effect would that have on the budget and would it be politically acceptable?

 

[HowardGWR]

That's the impression I had too, I really can't imagine he would even consider delaying Euston-Birmingham but bringing forward completion of phase 2 is a different matter.

According to the Yorkshire Post he answered a question about starting in the north as follows:

“We should certainly look at it,” he said. “At the moment it’s driven by the legislative process.

“The current timetable has the Royal Assent for the second stage in 2020. That’s a long way from now... Surely we can make that quicker. If we can, all options are open.”

Sir David made clear he intends to “look closely” at how the benefits of HS2 can be brought forward, as the Government battles to shore up support for the flagship infrastructure scheme, which has been repeatedly criticised by MPs over recent months.

“I think if you’re in the North, you want to see the benefits earlier,” he said. “I don’t think people want to wait until 2032 or 2035 to see the benefit, and that is something I will look closely at.”

Chris

Especially after saying the southern end of the WCML is 'full'.

 

[Wavertreelad]

Given the investment that Peel is making to the infrastructure of the North West with Port of Liverpool and other schemes these comments may be of interest to readers

http://www.liverpool2.com/timeline/86-liverpool2-and-hs2

 

[IKBrunel]

The actual David Higgins discussion at the transport committee, can be viewed here:
www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/MeetingDetails.aspx?meetingId=13927

He made a couple of other good points:
The capacity created/release by building HS2 is the equivalent of building 2 motorways.

The BCR is based on a very conservative estimate of 2% annual passenger growth, The growth last year was 4%.

 

[deltic]

The BCR is based on a very conservative estimate of 2% annual growth, The UK economy grew by 4% last year.

If only - UK growth last year was 0.3% - we havent had growth above 2% since 2007

 

[Muzer]

The actual David Higgins discussion at the transport committee, can be viewed here:
www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/MeetingDetails.aspx?meetingId=13927

He made a couple of other good points:
The capacity created/release by building HS2 is the equivalent of building 2 motorways.

The BCR is based on a very conservative estimate of 2% annual growth, The UK economy grew by 4% last year.

Ewwww, silverlight. Any Linux users, you might want to use this link to the direct stream: mms://wms002.twofourdigital.net/UKParliament/Archive/0000023462.wmv

 

[33Hz]

As the man said the southern end of the WCML is full now, starting HS2 from the northern end would make very little sense.

 

[Chris125]

If only - UK growth last year was 0.3% - we havent had growth above 2% since 2007

I believe Higgins was referring to passenger growth.

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

Well the annual spend is indeed low so there is probably some room industrially for the pace to be sped up, you could also phase the works so that when a certain skill is finished on phase 1 they move on to phase 2 without waiting for everything else to finish. If I remember back to the Gantt chart for Phase 1 the only part of the project taking the full schedule allotment to complete was Euston remodelling, everything else finished several years faster and either started later or had fallow periods working then several years without work before work resumed again. I think I remember it may even have been physically possible to open Birmingham airport-Old Oak and later Birmingham central a couple of years earlier than the project deadline for Euston services.

 

[AndyLandy]

Well the annual spend is indeed low so there is probably some room industrially for the pace to be sped up, you could also phase the works so that when a certain skill is finished on phase 1 they move on to phase 2 without waiting for everything else to finish.

It wouldn't surprise me if the estimates for completion are so conservative that when we actually get started, we can celebrate how we delivered HS2 ahead of schedule!

 

[jon0844]

They've actually been building it for years. The tunnelling has been going on unnoticed for months, while the workers clearing a path on the land disguised themselves as farmers harvesting their crops...

 

[TrainBoy98]

They've actually been building it for years. The tunnelling has been going on unnoticed for months, while the workers clearing a path on the land disguised themselves as farmers harvesting their crops...

I don't suppose there is actually a possibility of that happening? Would be great if they had!

 

[Ironside]

HS2 paving bill report stage and 3rd reading tabled for 31 October according to parliament.uk

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06624

 

[Wavertreelad]

Perhaps Boris may be on the right track. Sorry about the pun!

http://youtu.be/VR9kRqdRbtA

 

[jon0844]

Perhaps Boris may be on the right track. Sorry about the pun!

http://youtu.be/VR9kRqdRbtA

As long as we use quality building materials!

 

[Wavertreelad]

As long as we use quality building materials!

Totally agree, but any import from China would automatically be required to comply with EU standards by law. Any major infrastructure projects even if awarded to a foreign contractor will inevitably result in much of work subcontracted to local firms using local materials as it is usually not cost effective to import similar products in bulk with perhaps the exception of certain types of steel. Don't forget most of the cars we now drive that are built in the UK are manufactured from steel which originates in the Far East. We have come along from the rust buckets more or less entirely produced locally 40 years ago.

I suspect what he was alluding to as far as HS rail is concerned is using the skills and technology that the Chinese have developed building or upgrading 11000 miles of railway by the end of 2015, 4200 miles of which is HS. In addition he was having a go at the planning process and the amount of money we spend on it, especially bringing in consultants with vastly inflated fees, etc., I am not suggesting by the way we throw we should be throwing people out of their houses and demolishing property as they apparently do in China when they decide to build a new project, but it does seem to me that the present process is vastly too expensive before a sod of earth is turned.

 

[jon0844]

Wow. Newsnight tonight.

Shocking attempt by the BBC to discredit the scheme on the basis that towns not on the line will suffer hugely (such as Cardiff and Cambridge - both places that will benefit from other projects).

And it was back to £50bn with the accusation that it was made up and untrue.

 

[tbtc]

Wow. Newsnight tonight.

Shocking attempt by the BBC to discredit the scheme on the basis that towns not on the line will suffer hugely (such as Cardiff and Cambridge - both places that will benefit from other projects).

And it was back to £50bn with the accusation that it was made up and untrue.

I like Newsnight, but this is a really "thin" story.

We've gone from complaints that "HS2 won't be a benefit" to complaints that "HS2 will be so much of a benefit to the places that it serves that places like Aberdeen and Cardiff will miss out".

As you say, we are spending huge money on improvements to places (like Cardiff) and HS2 will free up a lot of capacity for services to other places (fewer 125mph trains over Welwyn means more space for extra Cambridge trains).

The problem is that anyone paying attention for only a couple of minutes will only hear "HS2 is bad" (without any consideration of whether a line from London to Leeds/ Manchester should be expected to benefit Cardiff or whether any money is being spent on railways around Cardiff).

Still, the story distracted from that "polar bear" jumper at the start of the episode...

 

[Gareth Marston]

Wow. Newsnight tonight.

Shocking attempt by the BBC to discredit the scheme on the basis that towns not on the line will suffer hugely (such as Cardiff and Cambridge - both places that will benefit from other projects).

And it was back to £50bn with the accusation that it was made up and untrue.

Essential the beeb now concedes there is a business case for HS2 for Manchester etc!

 

[jon0844]

It makes no sense until you realise tbtc has it spot on - no matter what the complaint is about HS2, it still makes it sound bad.

I certainly noticed that the most recent moan is only valid if you now have to accept HS2 is in fact going to be a massive boost for all the places along the route! That totally contradicts what was said before, but will almost certainly be used as a new weapon by the very same people who simply don't want it in their back garden.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Wow. Newsnight tonight.

Shocking attempt by the BBC to discredit the scheme on the basis that towns not on the line will suffer hugely (such as Cardiff and Cambridge - both places that will benefit from other projects).

And it was back to £50bn with the accusation that it was made up and untrue.

The point is though Cardiff is not having £50bn thrown at it! I concur that it will benefit from electrification (along with the rest of South Wales) but it will noT benefit from HS2.

 

[jon0844]

But isn't that a silly argument for the BBC to pursue? Of course HS2 won't benefit Cardiff, but neither will electrification to Wales benefit people in Scotland, or Crossrail benefit those in Cumbria...

The benefits to other places will come from different schemes, possibly one day being HS3 and HS4. None of which will happen if we can't even build HS2!

 

[RichmondCommu]

But isn't that a silly argument for the BBC to pursue? Of course HS2 won't benefit Cardiff, but neither will electrification to Wales benefit people in Scotland, or Crossrail benefit those in Cumbria...

The benefits to other places will come from different schemes, possibly one day being HS3 and HS4. None of which will happen if we can't even build HS2!

The problem is HS2 is proving to be a hard sell on the basis that it will only directly benefit half a dozen towns. And in all fairness it won't cost £50bn to electrify the GWML! I agree that Crossrail is slightly different until you realise how much the rest of the UK depends on London in terms of economics.

 

[jon0844]

The places HS2 will supposedly now benefit massively (at the expense of other places) if you believe what the BBC 'exposed' aren't exactly insignificant towns.

Small places like London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool...

And then the indirect benefits for people at smaller stations that now get a more frequent service with the fast trains moving away.

Or the improved freight which will benefit places way off the routes, with indirect benefits for just about everyone.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The places HS2 will supposedly now benefit massively (at the expense of other places) if you believe what the BBC 'exposed' aren't exactly insignificant towns.

Small places like London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool...

And then the indirect benefits for people at smaller stations that now get a more frequent service with the fast trains moving away.

Or the improved freight which will benefit places way off the routes, with indirect benefits for just about everyone.

In all fairness I don't think anyone would suggest that London, Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool are either small or insignificant. However, to someone living in Essex, the South West or Surrey (as an example) HS2 would appear to offer very little in the way of benefits to rail users.

And although I would class myself as an enthusiastic supporter of rail freight, it's hard to see how much scope there is for taking more freight off our motorways.

 

[jon0844]

I don't expect my daily life to be transformed by HS2, bar the times need to travel to the places connected.

I will however benefit from the new Hatfield station, bridge and car park being built between now and next October... which won't benefit many others unless they are going to that station.

HS2 isn't trying to do everything. It won't cure cancer or bring world peace either!

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

 

[RichmondCommu]

I don't expect my daily life to be transformed by HS2, bar the times need to travel to the places connected.

I will however benefit from the new Hatfield station, bridge and car park being built between now and next October... which won't benefit many others unless they are going to that station.

HS2 isn't trying to do everything. It won't cure cancer or bring world peace either!

This is exactly why HS2 is proving to be a hard sell. You and I can see the benefits but the £50bn is of no use to commuters away from the WCML. And this is precisely the point that the BBC is making.

 

[WatcherZero]

The list in question.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/18_10_13_newsnight_hs2.pdf