High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[Ironside]

That's very helpful Ironside thank you. I hope DfT do better than I did in a recent case, where we were represented by Landmark (not their fault I hasten to add, but not being able even to have the case heard was a bitter blow).

It would appear that judges have been told to be very strict on what they allow to go forward to court. We were advised our case was a cast iron one too.

I cannot see, on the evidence so far presented, that the scheme progress could be held unlawful when there is no indication that the EIA will not be done?

I think your right theirs not much chance of them winning, I suppose it's a last role of the dice.

 

[IKBrunel]

http://news.sky.com/story/1151599/hs2-should-be-put-on-hold-mps-committee-says

Personally I am broadly in favour but I doubt even the first part will ever be built.
Every time another "no to HS2" story appears it's chances diminish.

As Higgins said recently we had a similar level of negative press in the years leading up to the Olympics, but that still happened. The economists are saying interest rates low & unemployment high - build infrastructure, IMF included. HS2 is now the DfTs largest project for the medium term, it isn't going to get axed in a hurry.
Labour are making critical noises in the runup to the election, just the same as the Tories made noises about reviewing HS2 & possibly an M40 alignment leading up to the last election. The whole M40 idea quickly melted away once they were in power & understood the project in more detail. Many of the worst affected areas are Tory safe seats, which they are unlikely to lose even with anti HS2 sentiment. UKIP with their anti HS2 line might weaken Tory majorities & maybe swing a few marginal seats to LibDem or Labour but they wont get a majority anywhere in Westminster seats.

Axing HS2 would be worse politically than building it because it would look like they just wasted all the project costs to date, certainly for the current Govt. If Labour get the next Govt and axed HS2, they would look bad in a lot of northern constituencies which are keen on HS2.

Either way there isn't actually a lot to gain for either of the 3 main parties by axing HS2.

 

[swt_passenger]

When/if the appeal is turned down, will costs be awarded against Bucks CC etc?

How much could this saga cost their council tax payers, and how many of them, outside the vocal minority, will actually be that worried about HS2?

 

[HowardGWR]

As Higgins said recently we had a similar level of negative press in the years leading up to the Olympics, but that still happened. The economists are saying interest rates low & unemployment high - build infrastructure, IMF included. HS2 is now the DfTs largest project for the medium term, it isn't going to get axed in a hurry.
Labour are making critical noises in the runup to the election, just the same as the Tories made noises about reviewing HS2 & possibly an M40 alignment leading up to the last election. The whole M40 idea quickly melted away once they were in power & understood the project in more detail. Many of the worst affected areas are Tory safe seats, which they are unlikely to lose even with anti HS2 sentiment. UKIP with their anti HS2 line might weaken Tory majorities & maybe swing a few marginal seats to LibDem or Labour but they wont get a majority anywhere in Westminster seats.

Axing HS2 would be worse politically than building it because it would look like they just wasted all the project costs to date, certainly for the current Govt. If Labour get the next Govt and axed HS2, they would look bad in a lot of northern constituencies which are keen on HS2.

Either way there isn't actually a lot to gain for either of the 3 main parties by axing HS2.

I don't know what Ms Creagh's (the new Labour spokeswoman's) game is but, that a game is being played, there is no doubt. She switched with Ms Eagle and came from Environment. Now it would have been more believable had she expressed doubts from that portfolio than from where she is now.

In the last Labour Government, John Prescott and friends strengthened environmental protection for AsONB by writing the following principle into planning guidance.

No development should be allowed to damage an AONB (in this case the Chilterns) if the aims of the development could possibly be achieved elsewhere.

Note 'possibly' rather than 'preferably'. The question that antis would be asking if we still had that principle intact (it was swept away when Greg Clark for the Tories came out with his 'simplified' NPPF which went through on the nod) is why it is not 'possible' for the HS2 phase 1 route to avoid the Chilterns AONB. I am sure it 'could'.

As it is, 9 miles of the 14 are in tunnel, and there are other short 'green tunnels' as well, so the planning issue is whether the designers have mitigated sufficiently.

AFAIK, we never heard a dickie bird from Ms Creagh (actually Mrs Pulham) about this issue when she had the Environment portfolio, and now she is echoing Ed Balls about costs, even though those have hardly budged, except for all the pie in the sky estimates for 'unknowns' and the claptrap from polemicists.

All a bit puzzling; what are Balls and she up to?

 

[tbtc]

UKIP with their anti HS2 line might weaken Tory majorities & maybe swing a few marginal seats to LibDem or Labour but they wont get a majority anywhere in Westminster seats

Are UKIP anti-HS2?

I thought that they were in favour of it (and a high speed line from London to Exeter too)?

 

[Chris125]

All a bit puzzling; what are Balls and she up to?

'Politics' is probably the simple answer - Ed Balls is desperate to look tough when it comes to government spending and sees an opportunity with a project he's no great fan of.

That doesn't mean he's going to guarantee Labour will cancel it, Ed Miliband still supports it, but he wants to look responsible and therefore make a u-turn sound possible without actually committing to one - something politicians do all the time, such as Labour and potential re-nationalisation. Maria Eagle, who'd been convinced of the need for HS2, clearly wasn't prepared to go along with this so she was swapped for someone who could both support the project and voice doubts without losing credibility.

Chris

 

[si404]

When/if the appeal is turned down, will costs be awarded against Bucks CC etc?

How much could this saga cost their council tax payers, and how many of them, outside the vocal minority, will actually be that worried about HS2?

This week's Bucks Exaggerator headline is the council leader saying that they will need to up Council Tax, or they won't be able to provide services, like fixing the mass of potholes.

Of course, we've known that the council has been running on not much more than essentials (and struggling to provide some of them due to wasting money on non-essential things) for about 5 years and they've wanted to give that impression for longer: I think the lights went out on rural roads about 2006, though the electricity bill savings still haven't paid for the speed limit reductions on those roads that we done to allay safety fears.

The article has no mention of services the council provide that we can do without - the HS2 lawsuits, or the recent pork project of lots of new brown signs all across the parts of the county that I've seen, for instance. OK, the paper's strongly anti-HS2 stance will mean that they will back the council to the hilt on HS2, but no mention of the spending tens of thousands on new brown signs (none of which were needed, and several worse than pointless) in the Amersham/Chesham Bois/Little Chalfont area alone.

 

[WatcherZero]

Are UKIP anti-HS2?

I thought that they were in favour of it (and a high speed line from London to Exeter too)?

Their last manifesto had probably the most ambitious and expensive HS2 concept of any party with three new lines to the North East, Birmingham and Bristol (but not North West). However they are now the most anti-HS2 party. The 180 makes sense when you look at where the majority of their supporters are located.....

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Their last manifesto had probably the most ambitious and expensive HS2 concept of any party with three new lines to the North East, Birmingham and Bristol (but not North West). However they are now the most anti-HS2 party. The 180 makes sense when you look at where the majority of their supporters are located.....

In other words they are bing political opportunists that are and jumping on the anti-HS2 bandwagon to gain votes in the affected areas :roll:

 

[dggar]

In other words they are bing political opportunists that are and jumping on the anti-HS2 bandwagon to gain votes in the affected areas :roll:

Well, who would have thought it?

 

[HowardGWR]

'Politics' is probably the simple answer - Ed Balls is desperate to look tough when it comes to government spending and sees an opportunity with a project he's no great fan of.

That doesn't mean he's going to guarantee Labour will cancel it, Ed Miliband still supports it, but he wants to look responsible and therefore make a u-turn sound possible without actually committing to one - something politicians do all the time, such as Labour and potential re-nationalisation. Maria Eagle, who'd been convinced of the need for HS2, clearly wasn't prepared to go along with this so she was swapped for someone who could both support the project and voice doubts without losing credibility.

Chris

I am sure your are right Chris but they have to make up their minds as Ms Creagh stated that they have to vote on it next Spring, I believe.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I suppose you have seen this report.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/government-considers-hs2-terminus-old-6172982?

I just wonder if such a proposal has legs. XR will get you from OOC to the West End, Heathrow and City in short order.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I suppose you have seen this report.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/government-considers-hs2-terminus-old-6172982?

I just wonder if such a proposal has legs. XR will get you from OOC to the West End, Heathrow and City in short order.

My only concern with that proposal is will it lead to severe overcrowding on Crossrail not to mention that OOC has no links to the tube network proposed, surely it's better to have two London stations to spread the load across the transport network?

 

[HSTEd]

It would also mean that XR2 would be of little use, which means we would have to come up with an XR3 to support Old Oak Common.

Loading everything onto one station does not sound like a good idea to me.

 

[mister-sparky]

My only concern with that proposal is will it lead to severe overcrowding on Crossrail not to mention that OOC has no links to the tube network proposed, surely it's better to have two London stations to spread the load across the transport network?

Well the Central Line at North Acton, and the Bakerloo Line at Willesden Jct aren't very far away

 

[jon0844]

It would also mean that XR2 would be of little use, which means we would have to come up with an XR3 to support Old Oak Common.

I'm waiting for the faster XR3i service...

 

[HowardGWR]

Well the Central Line at North Acton, and the Bakerloo Line at Willesden Jct aren't very far away

Also, I take it you are familiar with the Overground OOC plans? ("Poirot moustache"?).

 

[Ironside]

I'm waiting for the faster XR3i service...

The Cosworth Line!

 

[Kettledrum]

I am sure your are right Chris but they have to make up their minds as Ms Creagh stated that they have to vote on it next Spring, I believe.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I suppose you have seen this report.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/government-considers-hs2-terminus-old-6172982?

I just wonder if such a proposal has legs. XR will get you from OOC to the West End, Heathrow and City in short order.

Barking mad idea.

It needs a station at OOC and Euston to enable passengers to disperse across London more easily. Just having a terminus at OOC would destroy the passenger base and destroy the business case, as planned time savings would evaporate.

 

[edwin_m]

Barking mad idea.

It needs a station at OOC and Euston to enable passengers to disperse across London more easily. Just having a terminus at OOC would destroy the passenger base and destroy the business case, as planned time savings would evaporate.

But everyone's now saying it's all about capacity not time savings?!

To answer that I think it's better to think of it slightly differently. If HS2 finishes at OOC hardly anybody will use it because despite themselves being slower, trains to classic termini will give faster end-to-end journeys to most of the places people are going to.

Also I'm not sure there is room at OOC for the 10 high speed platforms that are needed for the London terminus.

 

[Chris125]

I suppose you have seen this report.

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/government-considers-hs2-terminus-old-6172982?

I just wonder if such a proposal has legs. XR will get you from OOC to the West End, Heathrow and City in short order.

There is no prospect of HS2 terminating at Old Oak Common, it has been ruled out as a terminus in the past for a variety of reasons that continue to apply.

This is a non-story cooked up by the FT, whose writer asked Lord Deighton if he would look at scrapping this section - he simply gave a perfectly generic reply of “Looking at opportunities to do things more efficiently is something we are prepared to consider".

The DfT later clarified that "It is absolutely right that Lord Deighton looks at how costs can be controlled and how we manage the project – that is what he was referring to. It remains the case that HS2 will go into Euston and that will be spelt out in [legislation]”.

Chris

 

[HowardGWR]

There is no prospect of HS2 terminating at Old Oak Common, it has been ruled out as a terminus in the past for a variety of reasons that continue to apply.

This is a non-story cooked up by the FT, whose writer asked Lord Deighton if he would look at scrapping this section - he simply gave a perfectly generic reply of “Looking at opportunities to do things more efficiently is something we are prepared to consider".

The DfT later clarified that "It is absolutely right that Lord Deighton looks at how costs can be controlled and how we manage the project – that is what he was referring to. It remains the case that HS2 will go into Euston and that will be spelt out in [legislation]”.

Chris

They had better get the legislation through before Balls ever gets his way then, as I bet Camden Council (Labour) will be influencing him right at this moment.

Thanks for the quote.

 

[Chris125]

They had better get the legislation through before Balls ever gets his way then, as I bet Camden Council (Labour) will be influencing him right at this moment.

I don't think there's too much to be worried about on that front, the following comments were reported a few days ago in the Camden New Journal -

Ed Miliband insists 'national interest' of £50 billion HS2 rail link must come before Camden opposition


LABOUR leader Ed Miliband this morning (Thursday) said he "understood" concerns about how Camden will be hit by the government's HS2 rail link, but his party remained supportive of the £50 billion project.

During a tour of Camden Town, he said: "There are two issues on HS2, there's the overall issue and we've said we are in favour of HS2, although ensuring that it is value for money. That's the important thing, there can't be any blank cheques. The second thing is the local concerns and that's got to go through the proper planning processes - and I do understand the local concerns in Camden as a local resident. I do, but that's the process it has got to go through."

If Ed Miliband was going to 'play to the crowd' when it comes to HS2 this is where I would have expected him to do so.

Chris

 

[NotATrainspott]

Could the HS1-HS2 link ever include a link to the GWML as well? Since both OOC and Stratford are planned to have so much money invested in them I can imagine there being at least some demand for services not serving London terminii but instead serving them. Attaching Javelin services to normal HS2 ones makes no sense, but something like (GWML extension) - Reading - OOC - Stratford - Ebbsfleet - Ashford makes sense. The IEPs are going to be capable of the same 225km/h top speed as the Javelins and are all going to be equipped with ECTS/ERTMS from the factory, and the Javelins (which will be fitted with ECTS when HS1/Channel Tunnel/LGV Nord are upgraded too) would be able to continue along the newly-electrified GWML. If it happened, it would almost certainly hinge upon the connection being double-track and completely isolated from the normal network. It would also help take long-distance cross-London passengers away from Crossrail (which will be full almost as soon as it is built) and reduce journey times for that too.

 

[HSTEd]

Little room for a double track surface alignment, which is one everyone talks about tunnels.

Frankly myself I would prefer a single track tunnel alignment because I like the idea of using the NLL alignment space for a further expansion of LO.

 

[YorkshireBear]

How much would just a tunnel under London likely cost? Surely the major expense of Crossrail is the Stations?

 

[HSTEd]

How much would just a tunnel under London likely cost? Surely the major expense of Crossrail is the Stations?

Well the cost of Crossrail is the stations primarily, but it could easily cost another billion pounds or more (depending on if it was a single or double track alignment).
Is it really worth it?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Well the cost of Crossrail is the stations primarily, but it could easily cost another billion pounds or more (depending on if it was a single or double track alignment).
Is it really worth it?

Doubt it, was just curious as to the cost :P

 

[Chris125]

Could the HS1-HS2 link ever include a link to the GWML as well? Since both OOC and Stratford are planned to have so much money invested in them I can imagine there being at least some demand for services not serving London terminii but instead serving them.

If there was enough cross-London demand it would be infinitely cheaper just to terminate certain Southeastern High Speed services at Old Oak Common, where there will be an easy interchange with GWML and HEx services. It will also keep the congested GWML and increasingly busy HS1 operationally separate, avoiding knock on delays from one affecting the other.

Chris

 

[deltic]

Surprised by the David Higgins suggestions that the northern section of HS2 should be built first. The planning for phase 2 is running about 2 years behind phase 1. Phase 1 bill is unlikely to get through Parliament till 2016 and if phase 2 went straight after it would be lucky to be passed by 2020 election. Logistically couldnt run both bills at the same time. To build HS2 phase 2 first would have to pull phase 1 bill - wait till 2015 for submission of phase 2 bill assuming new government still supportive. Meanwhile all money spent on phase 1 would be wasted as the whole case would have to be redone for when it did get submitted to Parliament

 

[WatcherZero]

Did he? I thought he just gave a pretty standard we will look at all options type answer suggesting that the Northern section could be built faster than 20 years and the Independent read too much into it.