High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[PR1Berske]

Finally we get to the point of it, you don't have any answers, therefore all your ramblings about upgrades and timetabling are bluster and nonsense

Maybe, just maybe, I'm an ordinary passenger who won't always have each and every piece of evidence to hand?

 

[jon0844]

I did no such thing, you're taking my quote out of context. I have no doubt that timetabling is complex, but I also know it's stuck in the past. Why not revisit the usual way of doing things to find better and more responsive timetabling solutions?

Stuck in the past? Someone working it out on a sheet of lined paper, with hand drawn columns?

I think you'll find it is fairly complex and even after creating a new timetable, it will be tweaked over time to take into account pinch points and even characteristics of certain rolling stock. And of course you have the working timetable vs the public one, where you can sometimes spot how complex it all is.

But, hey, if you can shake things up and find loads of new paths then don't be selfish and sit back doing nothing. Speak to these people (some are on here) and tell them. They'll thank you and, as a rail user, so will I.

 

[CalderRail]

There aren't any more "responsive" timetabling solutions, because there isn't any room an the timetable.

 

[PR1Berske]

Stuck in the past? Someone working it out on a sheet of lined paper, with hand drawn columns?

I think you'll find it is fairly complex and even after creating a new timetable, it will be tweaked over time to take into account pinch points and even characteristics of certain rolling stock. And of course you have the working timetable vs the public one, where you can sometimes spot how complex it all is.

But, hey, if you can shake things up and find loads of new paths then don't be selfish and sit back doing nothing. Speak to these people (some are on here) and tell them. They'll thank you and, as a rail user, so will I.

Don't patronise me, I've not suggested it's that primitive, you're putting words in my mouth. That kind of arguing is no way to behave on a public forum and is possibly against forum rules. "I think you'll find..." is a pretty childish way of speaking, too.

I am suggesting that the existing timetables could be examined from top to bottom to find greater or more efficient use of existing stock.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Maybe, just maybe, I'm an ordinary passenger who won't always have each and every piece of evidence to hand?

So am I, but I have bothered to read up on HS2 and realise that it is the only viable solution to the capacity problems on the Southern WCML and that no one opposed to HS2 be it the 51M group, HS2 Action Alliance, IEA, TPA, Alistair Darling, Peter Mandelson etc. have come up with a viable alternative that meets the capacity needs for the near and distant future.

 

[Tobbes]

[HS2's] selling point is the 15 minutes saved for Birmingham commuters, and that's £20bn which could be going anywhere else.

Simply untrue, as repeatedly outlined above.

WCML upgrades work when they're focused and relevant to travellers needs.'

Hmm, like increased services, reduced journey times, greater range of travel options? Sounds suspiciously like HS2....!

That means spending money wisely

Indeed!

on approaches into and out of stations,

Confused.... you think that the answer is in improving station layouts (presumably without increasing their actual footprint)??

it means finding new ways to run services into busy destinations, particularly interchanges.

Yes, and I suspect that the rail industry favours that, too.... and invests heavily in attempting to deliver it - e.g. Virgin VHF timetable. However, when you reach capacity, there are limits to what improvements you can make.

I don't know exactly how to the final degree,

Evidently! Or indeed, the first degree.

just as you and other cheerleaders can't tell me when "passengers would be turned away from busy trains" and other outlandish scarestories.

Outlandish scarestories? Well, suggest you look back at pricing demand off the railways - it's not about bouncers on stations..... :roll:

 

[jon0844]

Don't patronise me, I've not suggested it's that primitive, you're putting words in my mouth. That kind of arguing is no way to behave on a public forum and is possibly against forum rules. "I think you'll find..." is a pretty childish way of speaking, too.

You didn't say how outdated they were, just as you don't qualify most of what you say. Sorry if I made an incorrect assumption based on such limited information. I withdraw that element of my post.

And there's a report icon on every post. Let the moderators decide if I'm being childish and that this is against the rules.

 

[marcouk2]

The HS2 line to Leeds and Manchester -- when it comes -- will be in the 2030s maybe even 2040s. Absolutely useless by that time for all manner of reasons. Why not spend a fraction of the cost on improving the existing networks around those two cities? Why wait 20+ years for a HS2 line when there's improvements needed now that'll be starved of much needed funds?

HS2 is focused on London, it doesn't matter about the one or two exceptions, it's a London-centric proposal which begins and ends at the already stuffed Euston. It's selling point is the 15 minutes saved for Birmingham commuters, and that's £20bn which could be going anywhere else.

So you're saying that HS2 which isn't even planned to start construction until 2017 will stop the funding of improvement schemes currently running in the north, some of which are planned to finish before 2017.
Will the HS2 company be buying up all the OHLE that's been installed/Tearing up the new loops/chopping up new platforms? :roll:

Or maybe Network Rail will be concentrating on HS2 come 2017, let's have a look at CP5 (2014-2019)... Nope no mention of using the money requested for constructing HS2, the only mention of HS2 I could find in the strategic business plan for CP5 was for £36m to help project development at physical interfaces between networks.

And my head just can't get round a non-circular rail network that both starts and ends at the same place.

Plus I thought the cost of HS2 according to you was £73B, is it now only £20B? Or are you now saying that the cost of Birmingham to Manchester/Leeds alone will cost £53B?

 

[dggar]

Why is anybody replying to anything posted by PR1Berske?

 

[jon0844]

I don't know. I know he's winding us all up, yet I keep doing it.

Maybe he'll get me banned and I can stop!!

Trolls usually consider that a success, and he's now started down the 'breach of rules' track - one of the most common actions to try and win an argument.

 

[PR1Berske]

So you're saying that HS2 which isn't even planned to start construction until 2017 will stop the funding of improvement schemes currently running in the north, some of which are planned to finish before 2017.
Will the HS2 company be buying up all the OHLE that's been installed/Tearing up the new loops/chopping up new platforms? :roll:

Or maybe Network Rail will be concentrating on HS2 come 2017, let's have a look at CP5 (2014-2019)... Nope no mention of using the money requested for constructing HS2, the only mention of HS2 I could find in the strategic business plan for CP5 was for £36m to help project development at physical interfaces between networks.

And my head just can't get round a non-circular rail network that both starts and ends at the same place.

Plus I thought the cost of HS2 according to you was £73B, is it now only £20B? Or are you now saying that the cost of Birmingham to Manchester/Leeds alone will cost £53B?

You're deliberately misrepresenting what I've said.

Why is anybody replying to anything posted by PR1Berske?

It's a message-board on which questions and answers are exchanged, it's what happens. I'm giving my opinion, just as others are. My opinions are asked to be expanded upon, whilst pro-HS2 campaigners are allowed to say whatever the like.

I don't know. I know he's winding us all up, yet I keep doing it.

Maybe he'll get me banned and I can stop!!

Trolls usually consider that a success, and he's now started down the 'breach of rules' track - one of the most common actions to try and win an argument.

I've already told you how lazy it is to go "TROLL". I know, as well as you do, how trolls behave, and it's a far way removed from what I'm doing.

All my posts have been genuine. I simply object to HS2, and as a simple member of the public, I cant always provide detailed answers or alternative proposals. I simply don't accept the project at all, and have tried my best to answer as a complete novice without access to all the facts and figures.

I didn't come here to wind people up for laughs - that behaviour is tedious and boring, and has actually stopped me from going to another forum I visit until a troll over there "dies down".

My point to you about breaking forum rules was on a single specific post where you appeared to show my saying something that I hadn't actually said.

There is a difference between standing up for an opinion and "trolling". I think you've misunderstood that difference.

 

[jon0844]

You don't really give your opinion though (other than not wanting HS2, which is fine to say). Everything else is cherry picking stuff other people have said, and continuing to do so when it is proven to be rubbish.

An opinion might be that you expect it will run over budget (but accepting what the budget is, not something made up by others that includes other projects, or using an inflation adjusted figure).

You might have an opinion about the route, and so on.

That's what debate is about.

All people are doing here is trying to correct your mistakes and getting frustrated when you wind us up with stupid signatures and then get worse as times on because some people aren't rising to your actions.

That's basically what trolling is, and you tick all the right boxes. Sorry if that upsets you, but maybe you need to look back at what you've posted over the weekend.

 

[PR1Berske]

I've posted my opinions, answered questions, and offered suggestions.

 

[CalderRail]

No, you've regurgitated other peoples opinions, failed to understand what the questions put to you are, and suggested nonsense that doesn't resolve the core issue.

 

[PR1Berske]

You don't really give your opinion though (other than not wanting HS2, which is fine to say). Everything else is cherry picking stuff other people have said, and continuing to do so when it is proven to be rubbish.

An opinion might be that you expect it will run over budget (but accepting what the budget is, not something made up by others that includes other projects, or using an inflation adjusted figure).

You might have an opinion about the route, and so on.

That's what debate is about.

All people are doing here is trying to correct your mistakes and getting frustrated when you wind us up with stupid signatures and then get worse as times on because some people aren't rising to your actions.

That's basically what trolling is, and you tick all the right boxes. Sorry if that upsets you, but maybe you need to look back at what you've posted over the weekend.

The natural consequence of you shouting "TROLL" at everyone who isn't an expert or is just an ordinary person with only newspaper reports or somesuch coming here to discuss HS2 is this thread becoming a pro-project echo chamber.

This isn't the first time I've felt that this forum doesn't like outsiders or passengers very much, and only supports others in the industry.

 

[jon0844]

I am not in the industry so that accusation just fell flat too.

You can see no point in HS2, that's fine. But why then come here and ignore people that have industry knowledge?

You not only ignore them, but come back with stupid summaries, and a budget that you keep changing!

 

[Chris125]

The HS2 line to Leeds and Manchester -- when it comes -- will be in the 2030s maybe even 2040s. Absolutely useless by that time for all manner of reasons. Why not spend a fraction of the cost on improving the existing networks around those two cities? Why wait 20+ years for a HS2 line when there's improvements needed now that'll be starved of much needed funds?

That kind of investment is already under way with the Northern Hub and North West/TP electrification, and there's no reason to think it won't continue into CP6 and beyond - after all, the one thing that does have near universal support is that investment in the rail network should not be compromised to pay for HS2.

No, the real risk to such schemes comes from trying to make do without HS2 - not only would they have to compete against further WCRM-type upgrades for funding but paths too; given the relative profitability of Intercity and local services (especially in the North West and North East) there's only going to be one victor.

Of course some believe scrapping HS2 could make more money available for such schemes, but that simply isn't realistic - the cost of HS2 isn't upfront but a few billion per year over two decades; there is no lump sum to become available in the short term, nor could a government give any meaningful long term commitment that in 4 or 5 parliaments time an 'extra' £2-3bn a year will be spent on alternative schemes.

Chris

 

[Dave1987]

I still want to know what's so unintelligent about the Voyager planning system. I've seen it and believe me it is a very very intelligent system. It is not a system your average joe (like me ) can possibly understand without some serious training and experience.

PR1Berske one thing you don't seem to understand is timetable managers have requests all the time from councils asking for extra services. Timetables are scrutinised very very closely and optimised to match the available infrastructure and rolling stock. For example London midland now have 110mph emus so they can make use of the fast lines out of Euston for so long until a pendo is right up their chuff then they are back on the slow lines. That called optimisation of track and rolling stock within the timetable.

 

[Philip Elliott]

VoyagerPlan is not intelligent, trust me on that! It only took ATOS 2 years to sort out a fault created by a program update:roll:

From a digramming perspective it is little more than a glorified word processor. It is knowing what to input the system that is the skill.

ATOS asked us how it can be improved, we came up with 3x the number of features it currently has.

It really is awful

 

[bnm]

Yes and that is a 2030 figure based on inflation. I've already commented on that.

And it is somehow wrong to include inflation when estimating the cost of something? The inflation will, of necessity, be estimated. As should be so with the HS2 Ltd/DfT estimates of the project costs. Have they failed to consider inflation? Bit remiss of them if they have.

Inflation has always been an upward trend over decades. Nothing ever goes down, in pure number terms, over long periods. Are you suggesting, or hoping, that we have two decades of deflation to make the current predicted (by HS2 Ltd and the DfT) £50.1bn seem more attractive?

When you have Govt. departments disagreeing over costs (even if one is only doing so privately at the moment) then it's time to worry that the cost estimates that are in the public domain may not be as robust as you thought.

Georgie boy at the Treasury will not be signing a blank check for the DfT.

 

[bnm]

I don't know. I know he's winding us all up, yet I keep doing it.

Yes, you keep doing it, and you keep straying close to making it personal. In fairness, so does PR1Berske. Others have done so as well.

Someone who is passionate about something and has an alternative point of view to yours is not necessarily on a wind up.

Engage the opposition with well reasoned arguments (and I say that to both sides of the debate) and not by making it personal.

Running through this thread there is far too much labelling of the anti- camp as being NIMBY's, a mob, uninformed, on a wind-up etc, etc.

PR1Berske style doesn't match mine, too bombastic, but I share many of his (more coherent ) points. He may be a little more entrenched in his views than I am, but the current pro- arguments are actually moving me more firmly into the anti- camp rather than convincing me I should be supporting HS2.

Finally, it is actually OK to say "I don't have all the answers." Many of a scientific bent will often say, "We just don't know." That's why you debate, to find the answers. Or offer up alternative answers. There is often no one right or wrong.

 

[Dave1987]

VoyagerPlan is not intelligent, trust me on that! It only took ATOS 2 years to sort out a fault created by a program update:roll:

From a digramming perspective it is little more than a glorified word processor. It is knowing what to input the system that is the skill.

ATOS asked us how it can be improved, we came up with 3x the number of features it currently has.

It really is awful

Fair enough if that is your opinion. It looked a lot more than a glorified word processor when I have seen it. From what I gathered the main think wrong with it was it can be quite slow. But hey I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong so maybe we could get more intelligent timetable program's. in your opinion is PR1Berske right then could a more intelligent timetable program eek out more space on the WCML??

Plus someone who has over 30 years in train planning (my relative) disagrees with you about VoyagerPlan. He says it has a few minor problems but on the whole a much better system than what NR have.

 

[jon0844]

Surely a glorified spreadsheet, not word processor?

 

[yorksrob]

That kind of investment is already under way with the Northern Hub and North West/TP electrification, and there's no reason to think it won't continue into CP6 and beyond - after all, the one thing that does have near universal support is that investment in the rail network should not be compromised to pay for HS2.

No, the real risk to such schemes comes from trying to make do without HS2 - not only would they have to compete against further WCRM-type upgrades for funding but paths too; given the relative profitability of Intercity and local services (especially in the North West and North East) there's only going to be one victor.

Of course some believe scrapping HS2 could make mBore money available for such schemes, but that simply isn't realistic - the cost of HS2 isn't upfront but a few billion per year over two decades; there is no lump sum to become available in the short term, nor could a government give any meaningful long term commitment that in 4 or 5 parliaments time an 'extra' £2-3bn a year will be spent on alternative schemes.

Chris

Of course , Alistair Darling will be well aware that it isn't really possible to guarantee investment on a large number of uprade projects over several decades. This is unfortunately true regardless of whether HS2 goes ahead or not. The issue arises when you have a long,, ongoing project that has to be finished, and how other projects are affected when the overall cost of the railway is called into question. This is particularly the case when we bear in mind that public discourse has difficulty in distinguishing capital expenditure and day to day running costs.

 

[si404]

If we were stupid enough to cancel HS2, wouldn't we end up closing or reducing the services to many of the local stations along the southern WCML to try to create enough paths for the more important ICWC services? Wouldn't that have a more drastic effect on the property values of the area than any new HS line?

And on the CML too.

With HS2, there would be the ability to slow down CML Birmingham services, as well as WCML - Wendover people would have improved service northwards from Princes Risborough, Amersham and the Chalfonts from Beaconsfield. Or people from the Chilterns can drive to Watford Junction and get ICWC services to many northern destinations, unlike what is planned to happen under 51M where the currently mediocre intercity service at Watford will get worse, if not cease to exist.

Add to that the improved local services on the WCML, and you will take quite a few cars out of Chesham - there's less incentive for Berko people to drive to Amersham for the as-good, but cheaper service to London if theirs is considerably better than Amersham's (which the way things are going on the Met).

 

[Tobbes]

Is there a critique of 51M's alternative that they set out in 2011? I did a search and didn't find anything.

Thanks

Toby

 

[Dave1987]

Surely a glorified spreadsheet, not word processor?

I've asked my relative about VoyagerPlan in response to Phillip Elliott's comment and he says that VoyagerPlan is the best system around. It has a few minor drawbacks but much much better than the system NR have. Now considering he has over 30 years experience in train planning I think his opinion counts for a lot.

 

[Philip Elliott]

Fair enough if that is your opinion. It looked a lot more than a glorified word processor when I have seen it. From what I gathered the main think wrong with it was it can be quite slow. But hey I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong so maybe we could get more intelligent timetable program's. in your opinion is PR1Berske right then could a more intelligent timetable program eek out more space on the WCML??

Plus someone who has over 30 years in train planning (my relative) disagrees with you about VoyagerPlan. He says it has a few minor problems but on the whole a much better system than what NR have.

Capacity is worked out on pen and paper so a new program wouldn't make a difference. However, with a little tweaking of the current timetable, the fast lines would be able to provide 2tph Liverpool, 2tph Glasgow and 1tph Trent Valley (plus a slower one via Northampton) and possibly and additional fast Northampton.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Being the best system around doesn't mean it is any good...

It is also the only system for TOCs...

 

[tbtc]

I understand why some people are against HS2 - I was against it myself once upon a time (and have previously explained why I don't agree with every aspect of the current design). Generally I can appreciate someone else's viewpoint, even when I don't agree with them.

But the frustrating thing about the HS2 debate is that the "anti" brigade don't seem to want to understand things.

• HS2 isn't just a route from London to Birmingham (it'll run to Manchester/ Leeds, with proposals for it to run to Glasgow/ Edinburgh too)
• HS2 isn't a "busway"
• HS2 isn't planned to cost £73bn in today's prices (£73bn in 2033 is equivalent to something like £40bn in 2013)
• HS2 will benefit people north of Manchester (since services from Glasgow/ Edinburgh/ Newcastle will run on HS2 tracks to save time)
• HS2 isn't just about "saving fifteen minutes" - in the same way that Crossrail isn't just about "saving fifteen minutes between Docklands and Paddington"
• We are spending lots of money this decade on infrastructure in Leeds/ Manchester/ Birmingham - and also on Bristol/ Southampton/ Hitchin/ Windermere/ Barking (so HS2 isn't starving the existing network/ we don't have to wait twenty years to see infrastructure improvements)
• If you didn't spend the "£40bn" on HS2, the Government isn't going to give Network Rail a blank cheque to spend it on whatever they want

I'm happy to listen to realistic alternatives - but the fact that there seems to be no sensible suggestions just strengthens the case for HS2.

Never been called that before, the cheque is in the post....

It does annoy me when I see the references to "bureaucrats" in the railways from those who have no idea how much work is required to get things running/ keep things running.

Some enthusiasts seem to think that because they've managed to operate an oval of Hornby track they can run the WCML...

The natural consequence of you shouting "TROLL" at everyone who isn't an expert

I thought you are an expert - after all you've identified lots of massive stations that could be built for £10m, found all sorts of gaps in the timetables that would enable loads of new services to be introduced and have solved congestion in rush hour (by telling people they should have taken an earlier train)...

...shame you won't share your top secret plans with us mere mortals, of course... :cry:

 

[HowardGWR]

Capacity is worked out on pen and paper so a new program wouldn't make a difference. However, with a little tweaking of the current timetable, the fast lines would be able to provide 2tph Liverpool, 2tph Glasgow and 1tph Trent Valley (plus a slower one via Northampton) and possibly and additional fast Northampton.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Being the best system around doesn't mean it is any good...

It is also the only system for TOCs...

It's very good that there is timetable expertise here. Just a simple question, if I may - do we need 6 tracks on the WCML (given no increase in capacity in parallel elsewhere) between the London area and (at least) Crewe over the next twenty years with a year on year growth of 2%?

Yes or no?

All the rest, it seems to me, is a side issue.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I understand why some people are against HS2 - I was against it myself once upon a time (and have previously explained why I don't agree with every aspect of the current design).

Could you please point us to that posting or repeat it? I have asked you this before, but noting your critique of the OP (and agreeing with you), perhaps it would be helpful to the rest of us, who have lost sight of your criticisms?

Thanks in advance.