High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[edwin_m]

By the time they've split a HS2 set at Toton and run it round the sharp curves via Trent to Nottingham or Derby, it would be only 10min or so ahead of a classic train from London.

 

[RichmondCommu]

By the time they've split a HS2 set at Toton and run it round the sharp curves via Trent to Nottingham or Derby, it would be only 10min or so ahead of a classic train from London.

But the same could be said of having to travel to Toton from West Bridgford! But at least if a classic compatible set ran into Nottingham people wouldn't have to change trains.

 

[gordonthemoron]

except there isn't a station (or rail line) in West Bridgford

 

[YorkshireBear]

But the same could be said of having to travel to Toton from West Bridgford! But at least if a classic compatible set ran into Nottingham people wouldn't have to change trains.

But people don't live in city centres much anymore and if they catch the train they drive to city centre, how is that any different to driving to Toton?

 

[RichmondCommu]

except there isn't a station (or rail line) in West Bridgford

Which is even worse as they've got to drive out to Toton! And in fairness I didn't say it had!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But people don't live in city centres much anymore and if they catch the train they drive to city centre, how is that any different to driving to Toton?

Because in many cases people have to drive a fair bit further to get to Toton re my example with West Bridgford. And if you're taking the bus it makes things even more inconvenient.

 

[HSTEd]

But the same could be said of having to travel to Toton from West Bridgford! But at least if a classic compatible set ran into Nottingham people wouldn't have to change trains.

With the ring road, I don't think Toton is actually much further away in travel time terms from West Bridgford than the Midland station is (10-15 minutes tops apparently according to Google).
Considering you would be saving rather more than that in travel time terms, people will do it.

Orbital buses would also be available to avoid the "but then everyone will drive" argument.

 

[edwin_m]

With the ring road, I don't think Toton is actually much further away in travel time terms from West Bridgford than the Midland station is (10-15 minutes tops apparently according to Google).
Considering you would be saving rather more than that in travel time terms, people will do it.

Orbital buses would also be available to avoid the "but then everyone will drive" argument.

With respect, have you ever attempted to use the Nottingham ring road anywhere near peak times? Speaking as an actual resident of West Bridgford who has to use it occasionally I wouldn't recommend it for a quick and stress-free journey any time after mid-afternoon until early evening (I never need to use it in the mornings so can't comment on that time).

Despite this car access to Toton is probably as good as to any single place in the East Midlands, but in my view that's not good enough. Good public transport links to the principal long distance transport hub are essential, but on its own the flow of passengers using HS2 won't be enough to provide anywhere near the public transport links of central Nottingham and Midland station. There will be a tram route useful to people in the western suburbs, and some bus routes of varying quality, but otherwise forget it. Despite having award winning operators and being one of the few places outside London with increasing bus usage, Nottingham has no orbital bus service to speak of and HS2 won't change that.

Either a through HS2 train to Nottingham via Toton or a well-timed connecting train will only beat the classic network between London and Nottingham by 10min or so, which is in my view not enough to sacrifice a HS2 path for the through train or to expect passengers to make an extra change for the connection.

So my view is that some people will use Toton or London journeys, and it is certainly relevant if travelling north from Nottingham. But it is not a sufficient solution for journeys between Nottingham and London so a fast and frequent service is still needed at the existing Midland station. In practice this won't be too difficult to do, as Leicester will still need a decent London service and there is no major capacity problem with extending some of these trains to Nottingham.

Substituting Derby for Nottingham in the above and say Mickleover for West Bridgford, much the same applies.

 

[Martin222002]

I'm not sure if these have already been posted, but the two reports linked below give a very good idea of what services might be like once HS2 is open.

The first report is by Network Rail, produced to advise the DfT of the options for the existing rail network once HS2 phase 2 has been completed.

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/improvements/high-speed-rail/better-connections-options-for-the-integration-of-high-speed-2.pdf

The second report has been produced for the South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire PTEs, and as such focuses on the ECML, MML and XC routes.

http://www.wymetro.com/uploadedFiles/WYMetro/Content/news/releases/Post%20HS2%20Timetable%20Options%20Study%20-%20Technical%20Report%20FINAL.pdf

In regards to the MML, which people have been focusing on, the Network Rail report says the following.

Unlike the WCML which parallels much of the HS2 Phase Two line, the HS2 service pattern does not directly replicate existing MML intermediate services. As such, the released capacity available on the MML is anticipated to be primarily increased on-train capacity due to the transfer of some long distance passengers from Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield to Meadowhall and/or East Midlands Hub (at Toton) HS2 stations. Whilst there will be some shift in long distance demand from the existing network to HS2, the requirement to maintain connectivity on the MML and North East to Midlands and the South cross country flows may justify the maintenance of a similar level of service as currently. This aspiration was strongly expressed at the stakeholder events, both by internal and external parties.

As this shows, both reports indicate that there is unlikely to be much of a change to the level of service on the MML post HS2.

 

[swt_passenger]

The first report was linked to a few days ago back in post #3553 by YorkshireBear. A page or so later I predicted it would probably be lost in the noise, and it has been...

 

[HSTEd]

More wonderful DfT future proofing planning then! My last eyeball of the proposed lines into Curzon St seemed to allow a connection with no trouble AFAICS.

Strange, as the two lines north of Brum are planned to link in to the present lines at the northern ends. In fact this feature is used to shew how all the Regions will benefit from HS2.

Not the SW though apparently.

Well the fastest electrodiesel passenger train I know of is only capable of 250kph (A Talgo 250 set like the one that has just crashed) which means you will lose 3.15 seconds for every kilometre travelled (compared to 320kph).
That means you will lose a whole path (150s of headway) every 48km.

Its basically impossible to run a CC train into the Southwest unless the cross country route is completely electrified.

 

[Martin222002]

The first report was linked to a few days ago back in post #3553 by YorkshireBear. A page or so later I predicted it would probably be lost in the noise, and it has been...

I had a feeling it had been, and too true!

 

[Philip Elliott]

But people don't live in city centres much anymore and if they catch the train they drive to city centre, how is that any different to driving to Toton?

Apart from all those massive developments of flats built in the last 15 years you mean?

Again, you forget the people heading to Nottingham. HS2 is so biased towards people heading to London / Birmingham, forgetting the significant flow in the other direction (and where there is a greater scope for growth)/

 

[RichmondCommu]

With the ring road, I don't think Toton is actually much further away in travel time terms from West Bridgford than the Midland station is (10-15 minutes tops apparently according to Google).
Considering you would be saving rather more than that in travel time terms, people will do it.

Orbital buses would also be available to avoid the "but then everyone will drive" argument.

In all fairness, the fact that you have had to consult Google suggests that you are not familiar with the Nottingham road network. No shame in that but as someone who knows Nottingham well I would suggest that even with little traffic West Bridgford to Toton Sidings would take 20 minutes. And in the morning peak the ring road can quickly crawl to a stand still, especially when you get close to the QMC.

However, people living in the western suburbs will of course be a lot closer to Toton. Coming from Derby the A52 is very bad in the morning peak when of course a lot of people will be travelling to London.

The problem with orbital buses is that they tend to stop to pick everyone else up. Not ideal when you're heading for a day in the Smoke!

 

[HowardGWR]

Well the fastest electrodiesel passenger train I know of is only capable of 250kph (A Talgo 250 set like the one that has just crashed) which means you will lose 3.15 seconds for every kilometre travelled (compared to 320kph).
That means you will lose a whole path (150s of headway) every 48km.

Its basically impossible to run a CC train into the Southwest unless the cross country route is completely electrified.

Thanks for that reminder. I must admit I was envisaging the electrification, at least Bristol or Cardiff to Birmingham, to be in place for my proposed very high speed service. An electric-powered Cardiff to Birmingham via Bristol Parkway and thereafter onwards north via HS2 could provide a real multi-region benefit to HS2 (if the route from Newport to Gloucester is on its own not sufficiently COBA-beneficial, although I am sure it is).

This would be a layer on top of the present XC 'stop at every market town' approach.

 

[tbtc]

Its basically impossible to run a CC train into the Southwest unless the cross country route is completely electrified.

If we are talking twenty years time (i.e. when HS2 will be open to Leeds/ Manchester) then I'd put money on the XC line from Birmingham to Bristol/ Cardiff/ Exeter/ Plymouth being electrified.

Maybe not Newquay/ Paignton, but I reckon some "Classic Compatible" service could run (not saying "should", not saying "will", just saying "could")

With all due respect I don't that's a particularly sensible idea. It wouldn't be practical for everything running north of the East Midlands to call at either Nottingham or Derby. However the DfT should consider running three or four services to Derby and Nottingham every day, splitting them at Toton. Don't forget people in this country don't tend to like changing trains and I think this will put people off using HS2

The problem is that if we run "Classic Compatible" services to Nottingham and Derby then we'll need to run them to Sheffield to and to Coventry and to Wolverhampton and...

...all of a sudden, the simple concept of HS2 becomes a tangled muddle.

Well I think we can all agree that the DfT is not going to subsidise HS2 as it will want to get as much of its money back as it can. And assuming that the operator will have to pay a pretty hefty premium to run the services this will be treated as a cost to the business. Now considering that the operator will want to make a profit and pay dividend to its shareholders, this will all have to be considered when setting prices. It’s the same as any other business

Just like any business with a fixed cost, you try to make the biggest profit you can by maximising revenue and minimising costs - whether your fixed cost (renting a shop, premium to the DfT) is £1 or £1,000,000.

If marginal revenue of doing something (running an extra service, cutting ticket prices etc) exceeds the marginal cost of doing that then you'll do it - the premium will be the same either way.

There are things to bash HS2 about (I'm certainly not saying I'd design it like the Government have!), but I don't think that the level of premium that the DfT may receive is a reason to criticise it.

 

[HowardGWR]

I
There are things to bash HS2 about (I'm certainly not saying I'd design it like the Government have!), but I don't think that the level of premium that the DfT may receive is a reason to criticise it.

What, in a nutshell, would you change in the 'design' as you put it?

Leave the London terminus /OOC/ two lords route, etc issue aside please.

 

[AndyLandy]

The problem is that if we run "Classic Compatible" services to Nottingham and Derby then we'll need to run them to Sheffield to and to Coventry and to Wolverhampton and...

...all of a sudden, the simple concept of HS2 becomes a tangled muddle.

HS2's problem in this area will be that it runs into Curzon Street. People say passengers don't like changing trains, but if you streamlined the process, by designing a station to facilitate changes, you could run normal classic Intercity trains beyond the end of HS2.

Provide a covered platform with a waiting room, make sure connection times aren't outrageous (maximum 30 minutes) and have the connecting trains call at the same platform island as the HS2 trains and you'd have a perfectly reasonable solution to providing ongoing connections to lots of places without having to provide a CC set for every destination.

 

[gordonthemoron]

HS2's problem in this area will be that it runs into Curzon Street. People say passengers don't like changing trains, but if you streamlined the process, by designing a station to facilitate changes, you could run normal classic Intercity trains beyond the end of HS2.

Provide a covered platform with a waiting room, make sure connection times aren't outrageous (maximum 30 minutes) and have the connecting trains call at the same platform island as the HS2 trains and you'd have a perfectly reasonable solution to providing ongoing connections to lots of places without having to provide a CC set for every destination.

Like they do on a smaller scale at Sestokai in Lithuania

 

[HSTEd]

They do that sort of thing in Japan at the end of Shinkansen lines, but surely you could manage cross platform interchanges with the classic set already present when the HS2 set arrives and opens its doors?

But either way, we have the idea that people hate changes.

 

[AndyLandy]

They do that sort of thing in Japan at the end of Shinkansen lines, but surely you could manage cross platform interchanges with the classic set already present when the HS2 set arrives and opens its doors?

But either way, we have the idea that people hate changes.

That would be ideal, assuming there's only one classic set. But if that's the case, you might as well be running a CC set up HS2.

It's more if you wanted to provide follow-on services from Birmingham to multiple different destinations in the North: Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, maybe even Lincoln via Nottingham. You'd struggle to have all those trains in-platform at the same time.

You could probably serve one or two primary destinations using CC stock, and make the others a change at a well-designed interchange station.

People only hate changes if they mean carting baggage up and down stairs, and waiting around on draughty platforms for the best part of an hour. If you made the changing process painless, I'm sure people would be much less bothered by the prospect.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

People only hate changes if they mean carting baggage up and down stairs, and waiting around on draughty platforms for the best part of an hour. If you made the changing process painless, I'm sure people would be much less bothered by the prospect.

But they still have to cart their baggage off the train, and then when the connection arrives, have another round of carting it on the train and hunting round for a space to put it. Plus face the risk that if the first train is delayed they miss the connection. Then there's the psychological feeling of an interruption to their journey.

You can certainly make changing trains easier, but I can't see how you'll ever prevent it from being a very significant factor in many people's journey perception.

I have friends who, even when the change is a simple cross-platform one with a 10-15 minute wait, and they have no luggage, will still go out of their way to avoid changing trains.

 

[Ironside]

But they still have to cart their baggage off the train, and then when the connection arrives, have another round of carting it on the train and hunting round for a space to put it. Plus face the risk that if the first train is delayed they miss the connection. Then there's the psychological feeling of an interruption to their journey.

You can certainly make changing trains easier, but I can't see how you'll ever prevent it from being a very significant factor in many people's journey perception.

I have friends who, even when the change is a simple cross-platform one with a 10-15 minute wait, and they have no luggage, will still go out of their way to avoid changing trains.

Some people are also afraid of having to navigate a station they are not familiar with and under time pressure, especially if the line has a reputation for unreliable trains.

 

[HowardGWR]

Going back to the OP who said there was no planned interchange with HS2 from New Street, I've had a look at the maps

See

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05032issue3.pdf

and

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05032issue3.pdf

and

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05031issue3.pdf

These are the maps for the HS2 phase 1 entrance to Brum from the great junction at Water Orton. One can see lots of opportunities for connection between present lines and HS2 and indeed it is not entirely clear that this is not envisaged already.

This being the case, we have to think of HS2 as being just another layer for inter-regional travel and indeed it has been so promoted, for northern regions which initially reacted that 'they had been left out' like York and Newcastle.

If that is the case, then I don't see why other regions such as Wales, SW and SE will not similarly be running Compatibles to Leeds and Newcastle, for a step change in inter city travel, missing out stops at the smaller towns that are served by the current XC services.

@tbtc

Did you give any further thought to my request for your proposed alternative designs for HS2 that you mentioned?

 

[AndyLandy]

But they still have to cart their baggage off the train, and then when the connection arrives, have another round of carting it on the train and hunting round for a space to put it. Plus face the risk that if the first train is delayed they miss the connection. Then there's the psychological feeling of an interruption to their journey.

You can certainly make changing trains easier, but I can't see how you'll ever prevent it from being a very significant factor in many people's journey perception.

I have friends who, even when the change is a simple cross-platform one with a 10-15 minute wait, and they have no luggage, will still go out of their way to avoid changing trains.

Some people are also afraid of having to navigate a station they are not familiar with and under time pressure, especially if the line has a eruption for unreliable trains.

Like most things in life, it's probably a bell-curve. There'll always be some people who'd rather spend 4 hours travelling all around the country than to take a 2-3 hour journey that involves a change somwhere.

But if you can't rid yourself of changes entirely (i.e. we can't run CC sets to every Northern city) then you should at least look to making the interchange as painless as possible. By making the change cross-platform, and running frequent enough connecting services, you make the process easy and reliable. You won't win over everyone, but you should win over enough.

 

[joeykins82]

... I've had a look at the maps

See

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05032issue3.pdf

and

http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05032issue3.pdf

Those links are the same

 

[Rational Plan]

No one minds too many changes on the tube as you know you'll only have to wait a 5 minutes at most for another train. It sort of still works if both services are half hourly, but you know with your luck, you'll just miss the connection and have to wait half an hour.

But when you require more than two connections? Then you really start wondering bout late trains.

Then of course when it comes to long distance trains how many of us can afford to pay walk on fares. So if you have to catch the 15.13 train, do you want to chance a connection that just leaves you 15 minutes between trains. It's not like the full service airlines, if your plane is late and you miss your connection they'll put you on the next flight, with trains you are out of luck (from personal experience).

If certain connections are time critical you'll want to pad your timings and before you know it you spend half of journey waiting at stations. At which point you decide to drive instead.

 

[jon0844]

This is a problem when you have connections. To be 'covered' with some tickets you need to go by approved connection times, some of which are ridiculously long. That effectively makes changing trains take a very long time.

 

[AndyLandy]

Then of course when it comes to long distance trains how many of us can afford to pay walk on fares. So if you have to catch the 15.13 train, do you want to chance a connection that just leaves you 15 minutes between trains. It's not like the full service airlines, if your plane is late and you miss your connection they'll put you on the next flight, with trains you are out of luck (from personal experience).

If certain connections are time critical you'll want to pad your timings and before you know it you spend half of journey waiting at stations. At which point you decide to drive instead.

This is a problem when you have connections. To be 'covered' with some tickets you need to go by approved connection times, some of which are ridiculously long. That effectively makes changing trains take a very long time.

None of these problems are insurmountable. Firstly, my experience is if a train is delayed, you can always get the next connection, whatever your ticket type.

If you're guaranteeing a well-designed interchange station, you can make the minimum interchange time only five minutes.

The issue of ongoing connections is still true, but I don't see how it's any different from making ongoing connections now.

For sure, it won't be for everyone, but I don't see any reason why we couldn't make a well-designed and efficient transfer process so that passengers coming off the end of HS2 can make practical and convenient onward connections to major destinations in the North.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The problem is that if we run "Classic Compatible" services to Nottingham and Derby then we'll need to run them to Sheffield to and to Coventry and to Wolverhampton and...

...all of a sudden, the simple concept of HS2 becomes a tangled muddle.

I concur that CC's can't be expected to serve every station because of their location in comparison to the proposed route of HS2. That certainly rules out Coventry and for that matter Leicester. However, I do think that more of an effort should be made to take HS2 to the people rather than almost forcing customers to make all the changes. As things stand at the moment, if you live in Wolverhampton the DfT will expect people to change at New Street and walk across to Curzon Street and many will see this is as an inconvenience.

It’s a real pity that New Street can't be expanded with a new lower level but obviously this would cost way too much money. I take your point that we don't want to make HS2 too complicated but at the moment I think it's too simple! I think the DfT is missing a trick here; HS2 should be designed so it feeds into the Cross Country network with a fleet of Eurostar type trains that can tilt on classic lines. That way we make full use of HS2 and serve a lot more people.

Just like any business with a fixed cost, you try to make the biggest profit you can by maximising revenue and minimising costs - whether your fixed cost (renting a shop, premium to the DfT) is £1 or £1,000,000.

If marginal revenue of doing something (running an extra service, cutting ticket prices etc) exceeds the marginal cost of doing that then you'll do it - the premium will be the same either way.

There are things to bash HS2 about (I'm certainly not saying I'd design it like the Government have!), but I don't think that the level of premium that the DfT may receive is a reason to criticise it.

I have no problem at all with the operators of HS2 paying a premium, in fact having inherited a brand new railway and brand new stock I'd be pretty annoyed if they didn't! My only hope is that the operator of HS2 doesn't sign up for something that ultimately they can't afford if the premium is set too high.

 

[HowardGWR]

Those links are the same

Apologies:

The third one (to the Curzon St terminus) is


http://assets.dft.gov.uk/publications/hs2-maps-20120110/hs2arp00drrw05033issue3.pdf

All the maps are available at

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hs2-revised-line-of-route-maps

Hope that helps.