High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[Darren R]

I may have missed something, but in none of the so-called business plans for HS2 does it account for the damage HS2 will do to the 1st Class market on the WCML, which will surely drastically change virgin's business model.

Any thoughts?

Contrary to popular opinion, this country does not plan long-term, multi-billion pound infrastructure projects around Richard bloody Branson! How fewer first class tickets he manages to flog by 2035 is not a consideration!

 

[The Ham]

Contrary to popular opinion, this country does not plan long-term, multi-billion pound infrastructure projects around Richard bloody Branson! How fewer first class tickets he manages to flog by 2035 is not a consideration!

Oh, I thought it did. Isn't he the saviour of the railways, as since he started running trains passenger numbers started growing again?!?!

 

[steamdrivenand]

I do wish that detractors of HS2 would think before they post their negative waves and stop applying the current situation to something that's 20 years out in the future.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I do wish that detractors of HS2 would think before they post their negative waves and stop applying the current situation to something that's 20 years out in the future.

He did ask rather than state it as a fact....

 

[AndyLandy]

Contrary to popular opinion, this country does not plan long-term, multi-billion pound infrastructure projects around Richard bloody Branson! How fewer first class tickets he manages to flog by 2035 is not a consideration!

Well, quite, but there will need to be consideration as to what happens to the future of the WCML.

I'm sure this has been raised elsewhere on this thread, but whatever IC services end up on the WCML post-HS2, they won't be anything like the ones we've got today.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Well, quite, but there will need to be consideration as to what happens to the future of the WCML.

I'm sure this has been raised elsewhere on this thread, but whatever IC services end up on the WCML post-HS2, they won't be anything like the ones we've got today.

Exactly, and so the Dft (quite rightly) has planned the WCML franchises around it with the next one ending in 2026 at Phase 1 opening (flexible in case of HS2 delays) and then the franchise will also have changes in 2033 but not a franchise change just requirements written in in 2026 for when Phase 2 opens. ECML and MML i believe will run to 2033 so that when they need to alter they can.

 

[WatcherZero]

After this second version, capacity freed up by phase 2, they are reportedly working on a third version, what services will be like on the classic compatible lines alongside HS2 trains which will be as interesting if not more for me.

 

[brianthegiant]

There are some good ideas in that document, but at the current stage of planning it's not much more than a wishlist - if all the suggestions were implemented then some parts of the network that are close to capacity today would have even more trains!

I think it's also starting to highlight the challenge on the Midland Main Line, where Leicester needs at least as many fast services as now because it doesn't benefit from HS2, but the double track to the south will struggle to take the suggested extra slower services.

Hmm, I wonder if there will be a case to 4 track the remaining sections of MML south of Leicester at some point, especially given it's part in the electric spine?
Or if post WCML-upgrade 4-tracking will remain out of fashion for the forseeable future.

 

[edwin_m]

Hmm, I wonder if there will be a case to 4 track the remaining sections of MML south of Leicester at some point, especially given it's part in the electric spine?
Or if post WCML-upgrade 4-tracking will remain out of fashion for the forseeable future.

Most of Kettering to Leicester was only ever double track. Might be more do-able to restore the rest of the four tracking out to Kettering and then double via Corby and electrify onwards to Syston, thus taking the Spine freight (if any) away from Leicester and also allowing a more frequent service to Kettering and Corby. Leicester trains would either be non-stop or serve Market Harborough and call at Kettering for intermediate connections.

 

[mister-sparky]

By the time HS2 is built and open, first class "hopefully" won't exist. The fact it still does in 2013 is ludicrous.

 

[HSTEd]

By the time HS2 is built and open, first class "hopefully" won't exist. The fact it still does in 2013 is ludicrous.

Unless you are proposing to dispose of standard then I think first class will always be around.

And I don't just say this because I still have a first class PRIV.....


Anyway: What the tax fraudster does is of no concern of the DfT.
And the ICWC franchise will probably effectively cease to exist as anything but a subset of the London Midland franchise (what is that called?).
I would think that the one that will be in effect in 2033 will be the last, if it is not folded in with the LM successor at the opening of Phase 1.

 

[AndyLandy]

a subset of the London Midland franchise (what is that called?).

It's the "West Midlands" franchise, I believe.

 

[Manchester77]

West Midlands Franchise

I don't know because ICWC by 2026+ will hopefully have routes such as Blackpool, Shrewsbury, Telford, Bolton - Euston as well as the current North Wales - London services.

Perhaps a modified ICWC franchise could be created with London - Brum, Manchester, Liverpool (current principle WC routes) transferring to the new 'HS2' franchise (Idk whether Glasgow classic compatible services would be best operated by HS2 / ICWC) and then a smaller ICWC franchise covering the route mentioned in the above paragraph as well as Manchester - Glasgow (current TPE) services and maybe even the electric XC Manchester - Bournemouth services?

I don't know it just seems a lot to be stuck onto the West Midlands franchise

 

[RichmondCommu]

As long as the price remains equal between high speed and classic most people are going to use high speed rail if there journey is on the high speed route.

This is where I have my doubts. In terms of Europe all the other networks charge a premium for traveling on quicker trains so why will HS2 be any different?

 

[Martin222002]

This is where I have my doubts. In terms of Europe all the other networks charge a premium for traveling on quicker trains so why will HS2 be any different?

Germany's ICE service do not have a premium to travel on them, with the small exception of their few 'Sprinter' faster running services.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Germany's ICE service do not have a premium to travel on them, with the small exception of their few 'Sprinter' faster running services.

But from my experience the majority of ICE services run on existing routes where the line speed is limited. I think 'faster running services' is the key here. And from my experience the SNCF charge more for using their LGV services. You need ask yourself why it costs to more to travel from KX to Peterborough with EC than it does with FCC.

 

[Ironside]

This is where I have my doubts. In terms of Europe all the other networks charge a premium for traveling on quicker trains so why will HS2 be any different?

Mostly because the govt says it will, which is no guarantee another govt won't change that. The Uk with HS2 will be a little different from France in that they have the Lgv but there classic lines are in a bit of a state, though this could change by the time we get HS2.

It makes sence to me to keep the prices the same so as to get most of the passengers who's journey is covered by HS2 onto those trains so the classic lanes can be used for more commuter, semi fast, freight or cross country services.

 

[tbtc]

You need ask yourself why it costs to more to travel from KX to Peterborough with EC than it does with FCC

The same standard tickets are interchangeable between them.

However the slower operator has an incentive to sell cheaper "operator specific" tickets (like LM between London and Birmingham).

I don't think anyone has a problem with LM or Chiltern selling cheaper "operator specific" tickets from London to Birmingham than the standard Virgin tickets?

 

[gordonthemoron]

Germany's ICE service do not have a premium to travel on them, with the small exception of their few 'Sprinter' faster running services.

DB train prices, most expensive first:

1. ICE Sprinter
2. ICE
3. IC/EC
4. Regio

 

[YorkshireBear]

I would hope this is how it operates. But i would really suggest WCML,MML,WCML operators don't try and get passnegers off HS2 and focus on serving the intermediates.

Coming to think of it. HS2 could be the best thing to happen to Cross Country rail travel in the UK for quite a while...

 

[Wirral]

I may have missed something, but in none of the so-called business plans for HS2 does it account for the damage HS2 will do to the 1st Class market on the WCML, which will surely drastically change virgin's business model.

Any thoughts?

This is a very good point. There will be a huge difference in value between the WCML and ECML franchises pre and post HS2. This has to be taken into account for in the HS2 costs as if HS2 did not go ahead then the Franchise value would be much higher.

The direct result of HS2 will to be to dramatically reduce the value of the WCML and ECML franchise. Not only will the HS2 ticket costs have to cover the cost of construction but the loss in value of both east and west coast franchises as it will be taking high paying customers off both.

 

[Ironside]

This is a very good point. There will be a huge difference in value between the WCML and ECML franchises pre and post HS2. This has to be taken into account for in the HS2 costs as if HS2 did not go ahead then the Franchise value would be much higher.

The direct result of HS2 will to be to dramatically reduce the value of the WCML and ECML franchise. Not only will the HS2 ticket costs have to cover the cost of construction but the loss in value of both east and west coast franchises as it will be taking high paying customers off both.

Yes nearly all of the customers that are travelling between the cities that will be served directly by high speed trains for the whole journey will use the high speed service. Hopefully the reduced traffic will give NR enough time and space to continue fixing the WCML and then it will be able to run a reliable service. Once this is achieved there should be enough new custom for either commuter, short distance, cross country, or partially compete for customers going from non high high speed stations to big cities. To clarify if there is a passenger who wants to get from say Milton Keynes to Manchester they might choose to stay on a semi fast direct train or swap at Birmingham and get on a HS2 train.

There will certainly be a net movement of people onto the high speed lines but there will still be many people using the classic lines too.

 

[YorkshireBear]

This is a very good point. There will be a huge difference in value between the WCML and ECML franchises pre and post HS2. This has to be taken into account for in the HS2 costs as if HS2 did not go ahead then the Franchise value would be much higher.

The direct result of HS2 will to be to dramatically reduce the value of the WCML and ECML franchise. Not only will the HS2 ticket costs have to cover the cost of construction but the loss in value of both east and west coast franchises as it will be taking high paying customers off both.

Then add in the higher usage from intermediate stations such as Milton Keynes, Grantham, Rugby etc and the new journey opportunities to London created by Lincoln, Burton etc and it all comes back about even.

 

[The Ham]

Then add in the higher usage from intermediate stations such as Milton Keynes, Grantham, Rugby etc and the new journey opportunities to London created by Lincoln, Burton etc and it all comes back about even.

...although probably even as it was a few years ago, rather than today's passenger numbers. It should also be noted that longer distance passengers pay more than shorter distance passengers but take up seats for a lot longer, so any post HS2 railway would likely see high passenger numbers over shorter lengths (i.e. busy from MK rather than Brum).

 

[WatcherZero]

Also the expected fall in fertility over the new century doesnt appear to be happening, baby boom increased the UK population by 420,000 last year, biggest baby boom since the early 70's.

 

[pablo]

..and here's a spanner in the works for you:
http://www.pleiade.org/loxreport2013.html again.
Scoll down to report no 9. Also rail links to WCML, MML and ECML are proposed but they are hidden in the road link proposals. Good reading.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

..and here's a spanner in the works for you:
http://www.pleiade.org/loxreport2013.html again.
Scoll down to report no 9. Also rail links to WCML, MML and ECML are proposed but they are hidden in the road link proposals. Good reading.

That will never get built in a million years! The furore over HS2 would pail into insignificance if that ever gets proposed as government policy

 

[Ironside]

..and here's a spanner in the works for you:
http://www.pleiade.org/loxreport2013.html again.
Scoll down to report no 9. Also rail links to WCML, MML and ECML are proposed but they are hidden in the road link proposals. Good reading.

As an overview, the large document is a proposal to build a four runway airport near abingdon oxfordshire. It has been sent to the government as part of the runway review.

 

[swt_passenger]

That will never get built in a million years! The furore over HS2 would pail into insignificance if that ever gets proposed as government policy

They weren't too keen on that major reservoir west of Abingdon either, but I bet they'd take it in preference to an international airport...

 

[RichmondCommu]

The same standard tickets are interchangeable between them.

But the cheaper tickets are certainly not interchangeable.

However the slower operator has an incentive to sell cheaper "operator specific" tickets (like LM between London and Birmingham).

I don't think anyone has a problem with LM or Chiltern selling cheaper "operator specific" tickets from London to Birmingham than the standard Virgin tickets?

Of course not but let's not try and pretend that prices on HS2 will be the same as the MML. The presumption will always be made that people will pay more for a quicker service and this won't change with the introuction of HS2.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I would hope this is how it operates. But i would really suggest WCML,MML,WCML operators don't try and get passnegers off HS2 and focus on serving the intermediates.

But in terms of the East Midlands to London services it would make sense for EMT to do this with 125 mph running and I suspect lower fares. Unless of course classic compatibles start running into Derby and Nottingham, in which case everything changes.