High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[The Ham]

Here a picture of a classical alternative to Eurostar Here. There are plenty of things that could have an effect, drop in fuel prices, innovations in Electric cars, and increased road building to name three very quick and easy ones.The demand for Eurostar never existed in the first place, it was based on spurious growth forecasts, it wasn't just out by a little bit, it was out by a factor of 3.

HS2 is based on passenger growth of 2.5% per year, therefore to be out by a factor of 3 would result in passenger growth of just over 0.8% or only a tiny amount more than the population growth of the UK. It should also be noted that even the last year's worth of growth which was seen as very poor showed a growth rate of 3%.

If this low (but still higher than the growth rate used for HS2) is what we see until the opening of the full HS2 network (assuming no extra growth from anywhere, not even the opening of the first phase of HS2. We would see the level of passengers expected in 2033 in 2028 (or five years early). However, if the passenger growth rate is just 0.25% higher we'll see passenger numbers hitting this levels a further 2 years earlier.

If the railways see similar growth to what they have seen in resent years and it carries on at about 5% we could see the 2033 passenger numbers achieved in 2022 (or 11 years ahead of when they "should" be achieved).

Therefore I would suggest if anything the growth rates used for HS2 are more likely to be much lower than what will be achieved.

Yes, some of the modelling for HS1 was wrong, but that does not mean that all modelling for all rail projects is wrong.



With regards to your three things that would have an impact on the use of the railways:

Drop in fuel prices would have an impact, but perhaps not as much as some think, as often the reason for not driving is as much to do with time as it is to do with cost. Although it would reduce the demand for rail travel only until such a point as the roads are so congested that they are no longer reliable to travel on (which depending on where in the country may not be very much).

Electric cars wouldn't have much of an impact as although there are some who travel by train because it is green, they are likely to be very few and far between - and anyway a train is still likely to be better for the planet. Likewise if it was to with cost then it still falls at the lack of road capacity hurdle.

Increasing road building is politicly bad news. Although politicians want to be seen to be fixing congestion they are no longer willing to spend big money to do so because all that happens in the problem gets moved along the road a bit. That and if you think that the environmentalists are moaning about HS2 that will just pales into insignificance compared to the noise that they would make about any fairly minor new road scheme.

 

[Metrailway]

Increasing road building is politicly bad news. Although politicians want to be seen to be fixing congestion they are no longer willing to spend big money to do so because all that happens in the problem gets moved along the road a bit. That and if you think that the environmentalists are moaning about HS2 that will just pales into insignificance compared to the noise that they would make about any fairly minor new road scheme.

I guess you haven't read the news recently - The Government announced recently a £28 billion road investment plan. The Highways Agency will be turned into a publicly owned company on similar lines to Network Rail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23334409

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul/15/network-rail-road-building-spree

 

[gordonthemoron]

I guess you haven't read the news recently - The Government announced recently a £28 billion road investment plan. The Highways Agency will be turned into a publicly owned company on similar lines to Network Rail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23334409

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul/15/network-rail-road-building-spree

we're doomed

 

[pablo]

we're doomed

You may be.
The meek shall inherit the earth. The rest of us are off to the stars....
where we won't need HS2; a £28billion road prog or Estuary airport.

 

[The Ham]

I guess you haven't read the news recently - The Government announced recently a £28 billion road investment plan. The Highways Agency will be turned into a publicly owned company on similar lines to Network Rail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23334409

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk-news/2013/jul/15/network-rail-road-building-spree

It has been carefully worded as road investment plan as not all the money will be spent on new roads (or even on reducing road congestion). For example a chunk of it will be spent on using hard shoulders as running lanes as well as other "easy" (and therefore fairly cheap) fixes to road congestion and another pot has been put aside to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.

Any anyway in the greater scheme of things it will have little impact (if any) on the numbers of people using the railways.

 

[jon0844]

I was very worried about hard shoulder running but must admit it seems to work pretty well. The cover from loads of cameras does mean it's quite easy to take it out of use if someone does break down.

It does, therefore, seem a logical thing to expand.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I was very worried about hard shoulder running but must admit it seems to work pretty well. The cover from loads of cameras does mean it's quite easy to take it out of use if someone does break down.

It does, therefore, seem a logical thing to expand.

Yes its good, but not overnight. IMHO overnight we need a safe zone. Someone half awake might not notice a small car with hazards on in middle of night.

 

[The Ham]

Yes its good, but not overnight. IMHO overnight we need a safe zone. Someone half awake might not notice a small car with hazards on in middle of night.

It should be easy enough to have retain the hard shoulder outside of the peak hours overnight. This does however mean that during many of the winter months (when it can also be wet causing a lot of glare) there may still be periods of higher risk.

It should however be noted that there will be refuges places at intervals for people to pull into. However the spacing of these is still more than the current spacing of the emergency phones and it is not always easy to be able to breakdown next to one of them!

 

[Geezertronic]

In my experience of using the hard shoulder running on the M42, M25 and now M1 & M6 I've never known hard shoulder running to be used outside of peak times so overnight use shouldn't be an issue.

Either way it is similar to someone who has broken down on the hard shoulder of a night and a distracted driver veering into the lane, or a motorway that is lane restricted due to roadworks and a car breaking down in one of those active lanes (although the speed is reduced to 40/50 in the roadwork instances, not that some people adhere to the restricted speed)

 

[WatcherZero]

Phase 2 consultation quietly launched today, not see any publicity about it apart from a quick mention on the radio at breakfast. Doesnt really seem to be anything new, mostly based on last years content though the justification has been rewritten a bit to tackle the myth of teleworking and better highlight links to Liverpool and improvements to the classic network from freed up capacity

 

[RichmondCommu]

I think this is being viewed from the wrong angle. Of cause people who work in central London and live in or close to London are going to make a bit of a fuss it they have to go and work in a regional office for a period of time, as it means having to live somewhere different for that time.

How it should be viewed is that HS2 will allow people living in and around Birmingham, Nottingham/Derby, Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds to be able to work in central London without having to move to London or somewhere close to London. This is where the positive economic effects for these areas come from, as you would have people earning more in London but being able to spend their earning where they locally live, rather than in or around London if they lived in the south east.

Oh look I agree that HS2 represents opportunities for people who live in those cities to work in London without having to live there.

However, its ridiculous to suggest that people are going to start migrating from the SE to the North or that companies are going to relocate as a result of HS2 being built.

 

[HSTEd]

However, its ridiculous to suggest that people are going to start migrating from the SE to the North or that companies are going to relocate as a result of HS2 being built.

Perhaps not, but it will likely stop the current flow, which is southwards.

This is why the population of most northern cities is dropping, the best example of this being Sheffield.
People might not like the idea of proud northern cities being reduced to dormitories for commuters, but the alternative is massive economic decline that will eventually leave something that most resembles Detroit.

 

[Metrailway]

Perhaps not, but it will likely stop the current flow, which is southwards.

This is why the population of most northern cities is dropping, the best example of this being Sheffield.
.

Unless I'm missing something Sheffield's population has increased in recent years according to the ONS.

2001 - 513,234

2011 - 551,800

Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle, Stoke-on-Trent, etc all have higher populations today than in 2001.

 

[jon0844]

In my experience of using the hard shoulder running on the M42, M25 and now M1 & M6 I've never known hard shoulder running to be used outside of peak times so overnight use shouldn't be an issue.

Either way it is similar to someone who has broken down on the hard shoulder of a night and a distracted driver veering into the lane, or a motorway that is lane restricted due to roadworks and a car breaking down in one of those active lanes (although the speed is reduced to 40/50 in the roadwork instances, not that some people adhere to the restricted speed)

Now most roadworks are 'monitored' by SPECS, I find that most people do keep to the speed limit by and large. You rarely (well I rarely) see people just going for it. I'd never speed through roadworks anyway.

And at any time of day, stopping on the hard shoulder puts you in danger - so get the hell out and to a place of refuge (ideally on these bits of road, see if you can make it to the actual refuge spot where there's a place to wait).

I've never seen hard shoulder running outside of the peaks, and that can include Sunday afternoon/evening as people head back to London. I doubt there's much need at any other time, as our wide roads are (like the railway network with loads of rolling stock) only really required for these peaks and could happily be one or two lanes wide the rest of the time.

I do find the new bit of the M1 from the M25 to Luton a little confusing though, as there are loads of gantries with LED text signs and the lane open/closed signs, yet they have decided that when you the 'hard shoulder for emergencies only', only to say this on every third or fourth sign?

And why not have the red X to show it's not for use (useful especially for foreign visitors that might not understand just text?).

 

[HowardGWR]

Now most roadworks are 'monitored' by SPECS, I find that most people do keep to the speed limit by and large. You rarely (well I rarely) see people just going for it. I'd never speed through roadworks anyway.

And at any time of day, stopping on the hard shoulder puts you in danger - so get the hell out and to a place of refuge (ideally on these bits of road, see if you can make it to the actual refuge spot where there's a place to wait).

I've never seen hard shoulder running outside of the peaks, and that can include Sunday afternoon/evening as people head back to London. I doubt there's much need at any other time, as our wide roads are (like the railway network with loads of rolling stock) only really required for these peaks and could happily be one or two lanes wide the rest of the time.

I do find the new bit of the M1 from the M25 to Luton a little confusing though, as there are loads of gantries with LED text signs and the lane open/closed signs, yet they have decided that when you the 'hard shoulder for emergencies only', only to say this on every third or fourth sign?

And why not have the red X to show it's not for use (useful especially for foreign visitors that might not understand just text?).

What on earth has any of this petrol head stuff have to do with HS2?

 

[WatcherZero]

On Newsnight head of HS2 Ltd and the Minister said they would be putting out a new business case in the Autumn, the current consultation materials where it calculates the predicted net increase in commercial floorspace of HS2 developments perhaps gives a clue as to what they will be using to weight the statistics more heavily in favour, including the BCR of office and retail developments around the stations in addition to the increase in commercial property value and direct station retail already counted.

 

[Metrailway]

Newsnight's main story tonight was HS2.

On Newsnight, another Labour figure came out as an 'anti'. Former Labour rail minister Tom Harris (2006-2008), has come out as anti-HS2 claiming that the original costs were "written on the back of a fag packet" and that he would be unable to defend "a £50 bn train line which doesn't need to be built" to his constituents during a time of austerity which will last for several years.

As the revised business case will be published in the autumn, Newsnight asked two transport economists, David Parish and Chris Castles to estimate the BCR after the budget rose and the NAO recommended changes. They claim that the BCR would go down from the current 1.4 to 0.5 - 0.6. They also claim that the alternatives to HS2 proposed by some local authorities as well as Central Government consultants have a better BCR (They didn't state them!).

Alison Munro, the Chief Exec of HS2 Ltd, defended the project by saying that the BCR may not go down and that the BCR is not the most important thing. The most important point of HS2 is that it provides additional capacity as the WCML will be full by 2020. Simon Burns, the current rail minister, repeated a similar message saying that the Jubilee Line Extension only had a BCR of 0.4, yet is a tremendous benefit to London.

 

[tbtc]

Newsnight's main story tonight was HS2.

On Newsnight, another Labour figure came out as an 'anti'. Former Labour rail minister Tom Harris (2006-2008), has come out as anti-HS2

I thought Tom Harris was anti-rail full stop?

I don't remember much happening under his two years in the job (i.e. pre-Adonis)?

 

[WatcherZero]

I dont know about him, seems middle of the road on rail. Blairite MP from Glasgow though a unionist and anti-capitalist, thwarted ambition to lead the party in Scotland, history of putting his foot in it and courting controversy. Two years as a junior transport minister then sacked by Brown in 2008, did step down as a shadow minister last month after only a year back in the shadow cabinet citing family reasons.

 

[mister-sparky]

BCR's are based on usgage now. not what it will be in 20 years time. thats why they're ignoring it for hs2

 

[HSTEd]

Unless I'm missing something Sheffield's population has increased in recent years according to the ONS.

2001 - 513,234

2011 - 551,800

Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle, Stoke-on-Trent, etc all have higher populations today than in 2001.

Ooopps, thats another misremembered statistic for me.... what has actually happened is that they have grown more slowly than the south and there have been rather worrying demographic shifts.
Younger people are abandoning these areas and moving closer to London as that is where the well paid work is.

If you want to avoid London sucking up an ever greater proportion of the population then we have to build HS2.


As to the politics, it appears if the relevant Acts of Parliament are not passed by the next election the project will be dead.

 

[Nym]

Compare as well the cost of building HS2 and likely speading the work around the UK moreso than it already is (a lot of companies are moving support functions out of London) to that of improving transport capacity in London....?

A small extention to a line with no additional rolling stock currently planned is costing £1bn for two stations and 6km of tunnel...

 

[YorkshireBear]

Unless I'm missing something Sheffield's population has increased in recent years according to the ONS.

2001 - 513,234

2011 - 551,800

Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle, Stoke-on-Trent, etc all have higher populations today than in 2001.

But is that the same level of increase cities in the south have seen? Population rises too remember, an increase in population isn't all that matters.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

In my experience of using the hard shoulder running on the M42, M25 and now M1 & M6 I've never known hard shoulder running to be used outside of peak times so overnight use shouldn't be an issue.

Either way it is similar to someone who has broken down on the hard shoulder of a night and a distracted driver veering into the lane, or a motorway that is lane restricted due to roadworks and a car breaking down in one of those active lanes (although the speed is reduced to 40/50 in the roadwork instances, not that some people adhere to the restricted speed)

For the South Yorkshire M1 scheme they have repeatedly said it will be 24 hour 4 lanes with no hard shoulder. Hence emergency services have had a bit to say about that. As they were basing their agreement on the M42 model not the one that is being implemented.

 

[Mainliner]

HS2 preparation bill got through it's first of two days at the Committee stage. The Public Bill Committee have not amended the bill in any way!

They mustn't read Private Eye either...

http://www.private-eye.co.uk/pictures/strips/cartoons/small/1344_b.gif

 

[jon0844]

What on earth has any of this petrol head stuff have to do with HS2?

Not a lot, other than there being suggestions that we build more roads to make HS2 less necessary.

I like cars. I like trains. I also like planes and even ride a bike on occasion! Personally, we need all modes of transport and for people to use the best option at any given time.

Thus, we need HS2 and other line upgrades (HS2 isn't the only line we should be building in the next 50-100 years), as well as road improvements.

 

[JohnB57]

Compare as well the cost of building HS2 and likely speading the work around the UK moreso than it already is (a lot of companies are moving support functions out of London) to that of improving transport capacity in London....?

A small extention to a line with no additional rolling stock currently planned is costing £1bn for two stations and 6km of tunnel...

A cynic would say that was an indication of how dramatically the cost of HS2 has been underestimated.

 

[HSTEd]

A cynic would say that was an indication of how dramatically the cost of HS2 has been underestimated.

Not really, tunnels are cheap.
Just note that one billion pounds of the Crossrail budget is going on Tottenham Court Road station alone.
HS2 can't get that much more expensive because its at the point where it would almost be cheaper to put the entire thing in a continuous series of TBM drives.

There are few stations and those are what cost the money these days.

 

[Metrailway]

Ooopps, thats another misremembered statistic for me.... what has actually happened is that they have grown more slowly than the south and there have been rather worrying demographic shifts.

Yes, you and YorkshireBear are right to highlight that London has grown at a faster rate than the Northern cities. But the main reason of population growth in the UK over the past ten years is immigration, and it is the major reason why London's population is expanding at a faster rate than the Northern cities. The vast majority of immigrants have settled in or around London.

I struggle to see how HS2 would change that. London was and currently is a Global Capital - the vast majority of migrants are always going to settle in or near London. Most economic migrants would not commute from Manchester to low/middle income jobs in London, despite the cost of living in the capital.

Younger people are abandoning these areas and moving closer to London as that is where the well paid work is.

If you want to avoid London sucking up an ever greater proportion of the population then we have to build HS2.

Places like Sheffield, Leeds and Newcastle have a greater proportion of 16-24 year olds than London...

London has a high proportion of 0-15 year olds, but again this is mainly due to the recent patterns of immigration, and how foreign born mothers tend to have more children than British born mothers. HS2 is unlikely to change that.

As to the politics, it appears if the relevant Acts of Parliament are not passed by the next election the project will be dead.

Yes if the relevent bills for phase 1 do not become acts before the election, then the project is likely to be dead. Alison Munro, HS2 Ltd Chief Exec., was quoted in the press a week or so ago saying that it would be very challenging but not impossible for the hybrid bill for phase 1 to pass by March 2015.

As far as I know, the hybrid bill for phase 2 will be introduced after the 2015 General Election.

 

[tbtc]

Places like Sheffield, Leeds and Newcastle have a greater proportion of 16-24 year olds than London...

This may be because they are smaller places with a large number of students (which has a disproportionate affect upon the population statistics).

The problem that places like Sheffield face is *keeping* these bright young things (which is why we have things like the Advanced Manufacturing Park being built).

If you could commute to London in roughly an hour (around the same time it takes to get to a job in Leeds or Manchester) then you could keep more of these Graduates (who wouldn't automatically feel that the only option for them was London once they've finished their degree).

 

[HSTEd]

Indeed, you have to correct for University population, which is some huge percentage of the population of Newcastle and Sheffield and to a lesser extent Manchester.
London is not a university dominated city like they are.

EDIT:

Between them the two Sheffield Universities have 63,000 students.
Which is a far higher percentage of the population than in London.

The two major Newcastle Universities have ~50,000.