High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[WatcherZero]

I think it's very clear that many anti-HS2 campaigners just want more financial compensation and will eventually cave in when they get what they want*. Likewise, the Government will know that money talks and give them what they want, eventually.

It's a game, but I am certain HS2 will go ahead.

* And these people will likely be the already wealthy land owners in big homes, rather than Joe Public.

Not much changed since the Victorian railways were built then!

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Apparently the HS2 Action Alliance (HS2AA) have raised the £100,000 necessary to appeal the high court ruling.

Opponents of the HS2 high-speed rail project are to appeal against a High Court ruling concerning an environmental assessment of the £33 billion scheme.

The HS2 Action Alliance (HS2AA) had argued the government was required to proceed with a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as part of going ahead with plans for the London to Birmingham phase of the project.

But this was one of nine legal challenges thrown out in a ruling in March by Mr Justice Ousely.

Today, HS2AA said it had raised the necessary £100,000 to appeal the SEA decision, and the Court of Appeal would hear the case on June 10.

A National Audit Office (NAO) report has recently questioned the business case and the funding for HS2, and the Major Projects Authority has raised doubts about the ambitous scheme.

HS2AA director Hilary Wharf said today: “The British public have joined the NAO and Major Projects Authority and are putting their hard-earned cash up to hold the Government to account for their incompetent handling of this white elephant.

“The fact that HS2 Ltd chose the same day as the publication of the NAO report to slip out the wholly inadequate HS2 environmental statement, and is giving just eight weeks for a highly complicated consultation, shows that they simply don’t care what irreparable damage HS2 would do to our environment.”

A Department for Transport spokesman said: “The judge was firm in dismissing these challenges and the Government will continue to defend any challenge in the Court of Appeal.

“It is unfortunate but inevitable that opponents of HS2 will do what ever they can to delay the Government’s plans, but the Government remains committed to delivering HS2 as quickly as possible.”

http://www.london24.com/news/politics/campaigners_raise_100_000_to_appeal_hs2_ruling_1_2215231

Here we go again :roll:

 

[HSTEd]

The fact that we are unlikely to see the hybrid bill for Phase 1 pass in this parliament has me concerned that the project will be axed.
Especially as it could be presented as a sop to those people who are raising hell about a half dozen other issues.

 

[Mikey1984]

Whilst I don't disagree in principle with HS2 there are a number of issue that concern me:
-First and foremost is the time scale. By the time the line is up and running will High speed rail still be the most effective technology available, or will new systems have been developed. (for example Maglev)
-Has the best route been chosen. The line won't connect directly to HS1 or Heathrow. Would a Frankfurt Airport style hub at Heathrow have been better and terminating the line at Stratford.
-It has been said that trains will be able to run at 250mph using existing technology. Is this realistic, the fastest lines overseas currently run at 200mph.
Also trains will be able to run at approx. 3 min intervals again is this realistic.
-Will the line at Birmingham be a terminus. Does this mean services beyond will have to reverse back out or will they by-pass Birmingham.

I don't know how the current plan was reached and I am just not convinced that this is the best solution.
By the time the 1st phase is complete I worry that enthusiasm for the project will have waned and some important aspects wont be implemented, or will be diluted.

 

[si404]

Whilst I don't disagree in principle with HS2 there are a number of issue that concern me:
-First and foremost is the time scale. By the time the line is up and running will High speed rail still be the most effective technology available, or will new systems have been developed. (for example Maglev)
<snip>
-It has been said that trains will be able to run at 250mph using existing technology. Is this realistic, the fastest lines overseas currently run at 200mph.
Also trains will be able to run at approx. 3 min intervals again is this realistic.

These concerns contradict!

-Has the best route been chosen. The line won't connect directly to HS1 or Heathrow. Would a Frankfurt Airport style hub at Heathrow have been better and terminating the line at Stratford.

The line will connect to HS1, via an entirely segregated link. It is unlikely to be used much - at least during the day as Euston-St Pancras is not enough of a hardship and serving them such a pull on passenger numbers.

Stratford International is a white elephant and also unexpandable (especially not for turning 18tph around). Plus you would need to demolish a large area of Somers Town for Euston Cross (and given the long walks to the tube, it would be CR2 and Thameslink that will take all the strain, and despite the large trains and high frequencies they won't take it) as you would need a zone 1 station. If you plug HS1 and HS2 together, then the cramptness and passenger congestion (roughly 300 passengers a second boarding trains to the north and the same disembarking from the north) will increase as you get the HS1 passengers as well, only losing a handful of passengers for through journeys. All in all an unpleasant experience for the sake of a tiny fraction of passengers (perhaps those who live west of Euston are somehow more important than those east of Euston - similar area demolished in both cases).

-Will the line at Birmingham be a terminus. Does this mean services beyond will have to reverse back out or will they by-pass Birmingham.

Yes and the latter.

The spur will allow access to all three Birmingham radials (London, NE, NW), while the two northern routes will have access to the London one avoiding a reverse and can stop at Birmingham International en-route.

This all saves a massively expensive through-Birmingham route that wouldn't be sensible or direct for the NE.

 

[Geezertronic]

First and foremost is the time scale. By the time the line is up and running will High speed rail still be the most effective technology available, or will new systems have been developed. (for example Maglev)

Whilst there may be other options such as Maglev available now and in the future, they are not compatible with any of the existing infrastructure both here in the UK or via France so any such line that would differ from the railways you see today would be in isolation and would definitely be the white elephant the anti-brigade want it to be

 

[Chris125]

-It has been said that trains will be able to run at 250mph using existing technology. Is this realistic, the fastest lines overseas currently run at 200mph.
Also trains will be able to run at approx. 3 min intervals again is this realistic.
-Will the line at Birmingham be a terminus. Does this mean services beyond will have to reverse back out or will they by-pass Birmingham.

While the alignment allows future 250mph operation should it become feasible, the business case is based on 225mph operation - as described in the technical analysis "none of the technologies identified are unproven and the core systems underpinning our specification are available now", for example ETCS level 2 and the Alstom AGV. ATO may be needed for reliably operating 18tph, but there's twenty years until that is needed.

Birmingham Curzon St will be a spur off the main 'Y' route, and will work in a similar way to Virgin services today - those not heading to and from the city will bypass Birmingham to the East, avoiding any time penalty.

Chris

 

[edwin_m]

The predicted run times are actually based on an Alstom AGV but it is assumed that speed will be lower than the train's maximum or the prevailing line speed. Thus the actual train could probably shave a few minutes off the predictions.

The extra costs of designing for 400km/h instead of a slightly lower speed are actually pretty small, and at several places along the route the curves needed to achieve an acceptable alignment will impose a lower maximum speed.

 

[HSTEd]

I believe the train used for the planning assumptions was the TSI Reference train, which means the actual train-sets could be AGVs, TGV Duplex, Siemens Velaros or any of a number of other platforms.

I myself hope for Duplexes for obvious reasons. (And my wish would be they would be in permanent 400m formations with intermediate powered bogies a la V150)

 

[RichmondCommu]

I myself hope for Duplexes for obvious reasons. (And my wish would be they would be in permanent 400m formations with intermediate powered bogies a la V150)

In many respects I agree with you (there's a first ).However I do feel that a certain amount of flexibility is required (just like the SNCF and DB) and the only way you'll achieve that is by using a fleet that consists of some classic compatible stock.

 

[HSTEd]

In many respects I agree with you (there's a first ).However I do feel that a certain amount of flexibility is required (just like the SNCF and DB) and the only way you'll achieve that is by using a fleet that consists of some classic compatible stock.

SNCF at-least is trending away from running single 200m sets anyway, thanks to the widespread employment of yield management.
If we can disperse all the excess tickets with sufficient income to justify a pair of sets anyway, we might as well increase capacity further by employing a 400m set. (And the required income per seat is incredibly small per kilometre travelled)

 

[RichmondCommu]

SNCF at-least is trending away from running single 200m sets anyway, thanks to the widespread employment of yield management.
If we can disperse all the excess tickets with sufficient income to justify a pair of sets anyway, we might as well increase capacity further by employing a 400m set. (And the required income per seat is incredibly small per kilometre travelled)

But it would surely be better to have some compatible sets that can run a limited service up the WCML and ECML to perhaps run as far north as Preston and Newcastle? I really do feel that it would allow us to reach a lot more of the population.

 

[HSTEd]

But it would surely be better to have some compatible sets that can run a limited service up the WCML and ECML to perhaps run as far north as Preston and Newcastle? I really do feel that it would allow us to reach a lot more of the population.

Indeed it would be an idea to have a limited number of such sets. But Classic Compatible should be an add-on, not the primary operation on the route.

 

[edwin_m]

The plan is to have a fleet of Classic Compatibles that work to Liverpool/Manchester/Scotland under phase 1 and under Phase 2 will still work to Liverpool and Scotland but also Newcastle. In Phase 1 captive (Euro-standard) stock will work only to Birmingham but in Phase 2 more of these will be brought in to serve Manchester and Leeds.

The classic compatibles will have to be a bespoke design so are expected to cost a lot more than captive high speed stock. They will have to be 200m sets as many stations on the classic network can't accept a 400m set, but will run in coupled pairs on HS2 and potentially also on the WCML to Carstairs to split for Glasgow and Edinburgh. It is also proposed to split them at Crewe with one set going to Liverpool and if electrified by then the other set could run to Chester or beyond.

 

[The Ham]

The classic compatibles will have to be a bespoke design so are expected to cost a lot more than captive high speed stock.

...or the same as if we didn't build HS2 to European gauging requirements, so not much different to our existing IC trains (other than they go a bit faster).

 

[gordonthemoron]

...or the same as if we didn't build HS2 to European gauging requirements, so not much different to our existing IC trains (other than they go a bit faster).

Then all would have to be bespoke as there are no 300km/h trains that would fit the UK loading gauge

 

[Chris125]

...or the same as if we didn't build HS2 to European gauging requirements, so not much different to our existing IC trains (other than they go a bit faster).

I'm not sure that going 100mph quicker can really be called a 'bit faster'

Chris

 

[WatcherZero]

Virgin were again calling for the line between Wigan and Carlisle to be upgraded in anticipation of HS2 phase 1 classic compatible services this week.

People in various places seem to be arguing for straightening and upgrading the existing WCML as much as possible rather than a completely new line between England and Scotland. You can kind of see their point that the cost of a completely new line while leaving the existing WCML next to empty apart from freight and a few rural services would not be value for money.

Maybe four track and grade seperate it all the way and you could get a decent speed out of the old girl, still im having trouble balancing the speed improvements and personal desire for a proper high speed line to Scotland on new alignment against the cost, its not as easy as the HS2 phase 1 and 2 to make the sums balance.

 

[Kali]

-First and foremost is the time scale. By the time the line is up and running will High speed rail still be the most effective technology available, or will new systems have been developed. (for example Maglev)

There is a fairly detailed study somewhere showing that in economic terms, there's very little point going faster than 200-250mph anyway - the small time savings are not worth the considerable extra cost. I wish I could remember where it is ( possibly a maglev site, I'll try and find it when I have time ).

TImes have changed when something as low-impact as a railway line can be blocked by environmental arguments, when not so long ago large roads were being driven through protected areas...

I always assumed any classic-compatible sets would probably be the current Eurostar units, somewhat refurbished & replaced on HS1 by full Euro gauge sets. Somehow I can see a newbuild of units like that being quietly forgotten...

 

[edwin_m]

Virgin were again calling for the line between Wigan and Carlisle to be upgraded in anticipation of HS2 phase 1 classic compatible services this week.

There will need to be some upgrading, but probably not as soon as this week.

Unless significant route enhancements are made the classic compatibles will be slower than Pendolinos on existing infrastructure due to the lack of tilt. It may be that this has to be accepted for journeys such as Carlisle-Glasgow as the downside of having quicker journeys between Glasgow/Edinburgh and Birmingham/London.

One of the major design issues with the classic compatible will be to cater both for standard UK platforms and for HS2 platforms which will be lower and further from the track. Adding the necessary moveable door steps to an existing design would be difficult - they are a lot more complicated than the ones on Pendolino, similar to the ones Eurostars have. The Eurostars themselves will be 30 years old by the time HS2 phase 1 opens, and whatever top speed HS2 settle on will probably be greater than their 186mph maximum.

As I pointed out previously there is a continuing need for classic compatible sets after the opening of HS2 phase 2 so best to bite the bullet and order some for 2024 rather than upgrading the elderly Eurostars only to have to replace them not many years later.

 

[gordonthemoron]

I always assumed any classic-compatible sets would probably be the current Eurostar units, somewhat refurbished & replaced on HS1 by full Euro gauge sets. Somehow I can see a newbuild of units like that being quietly forgotten...

that's a great idea, plus the North of London sets currently with SNCF

 

[Geezertronic]

People in various places seem to be arguing for straightening and upgrading the existing WCML as much as possible rather than a completely new line between England and Scotland. You can kind of see their point that the cost of a completely new line while leaving the existing WCML next to empty apart from freight and a few rural services would not be value for money.

Are we sure that the costs for this take into consideration the impact this would have on the WCML and its passengers (and freight) for the duration of such an upgrade? Presumably there would have to be significant closures and bus substitutions to be able to accommodate the required alignment changes.

 

[HSTEd]

Then all would have to be bespoke as there are no 300km/h trains that would fit the UK loading gauge

Well there is one.....


I will get my coat.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Virgin were again calling for the line between Wigan and Carlisle to be upgraded in anticipation of HS2 phase 1 classic compatible services this week.

People in various places seem to be arguing for straightening and upgrading the existing WCML as much as possible rather than a completely new line between England and Scotland. You can kind of see their point that the cost of a completely new line while leaving the existing WCML next to empty apart from freight and a few rural services would not be value for money.

Well WCML could absorb all the freight operations on both main lines currently, and possibly even the S&C, which would allow that route to be rationalised to something usable for a light multiple unit service.

Problem is upgrading the WCML gives you none of the capabilities that are granted by a new build line, we are stuck with classic compatible sets to the Central Belt indefinitely, which eat up paths that we simply don't have to spare.

It has to be a newbuild line, and despite the Scottish Government apparently wanting to gold plate it with a west coast route, I remain convinced that an East Coast route is the only real option.
It means that the Scottish connection only has to cover the distance between Newcastle-Edinburgh-Glasgow rather than all the way from Manchester.

It makes no sense to build two high speed lines parallel to each other when there is barely enough traffic to support one. So unless you propose to leave Tyne and Wear out on a limb forever there is only really one option. (And the travel time difference is a matter of a few minutes on a several hour journey).

 

[Kali]

that's a great idea, plus the North of London sets currently with SNCF

As was mentioned above they'll be rather old by then, whether that's too old is I suspect a political issue in the end. I've always assumed a somewhat cynical path of least resistance. Newbuild would be cheaper than UIC guage clearing route extensions at least, despite any long term benefits that would bring.

 

[Chris125]

I always assumed any classic-compatible sets would probably be the current Eurostar units, somewhat refurbished & replaced on HS1 by full Euro gauge sets. Somehow I can see a newbuild of units like that being quietly forgotten...

I really can't see that happening - the existing 373's will be up to 40 years old when phase 2 opens, and with every available path in demand it would be madness to use trainsets without the performance and capacity benefits of distributed traction with a top speed nearly 40mph slower. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the Eurostar fleet had already been retired by the time HS2 opens.

Chris

 

[StupidQuestion]

If HS2 is extended to Scotland from the Western branch and is also extended to Newcastle on the Eastern branch, would it be possible to just build a connecting HS link from Newcastle west, connecting somewhere around Carlisle, roughly along the A69 route? It would only be 30 miles or so,wouldn't require new stations and would allow Newcastle/Leeds/East midlands-Scotland HS services and perhaps Newcastle-Liverpool/Manchester if a transpennine HS line had not been built by then. But maybe there is something that would stop this I'm not sure.

 

[snowball]

To be pedantic, Newcastle to Carlisle, centre to centre, is 58 miles.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Virgin were again calling for the line between Wigan and Carlisle to be upgraded in anticipation of HS2 phase 1 classic compatible services this week.

People in various places seem to be arguing for straightening and upgrading the existing WCML as much as possible rather than a completely new line between England and Scotland. You can kind of see their point that the cost of a completely new line while leaving the existing WCML next to empty apart from freight and a few rural services would not be value for money.

The existing line already sees quite high commuter flows at least as far as Lancaster, even though these are poorly catered for by the existing irregular timetables (lots of trains but on several different routes with little coordination between the routes so the trains aren't evenly spaced). It's very plausible that there's a lot of suppressed demand because of this. I would imagine significant commuter traffic would further extend to Carnforth if more than an hourly service stopped there. There are also several places where there almost certainly would be significant demand if stations existed (eg. Lancaster University, Hest Bank).

So as long as the Government aren't totally idiotic in how they approach it, it's highly unlikely that the existing lines would remain 'next to empty' if the new line was built (other than possibly beyond Oxenholme). Rather, the new line would free up the existing line for better local services. With some investment in new stations etc. you can be fairly certain it would be heavily used.

Besides, would a new high speed line even stop at all the stations the existing line serves? If they really want it to be high speed then running non-stop from Preston to Carlisle would seem quite plausible.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure that going 100mph quicker can really be called a 'bit faster'

Chris

OK, up to 80% faster than our current fastest trains then.

The point being that we currently have to custom build trains to fit our network, so the CC stock design and build process wouldn't be too different from what we currently have to do to get IC trains. Whislt a large chunk of the fleet (at least post phase 2) will be off the shelf tains.

 

[StupidQuestion]

To be pedantic, Newcastle to Carlisle, centre to centre, is 58 miles.

Haha yeah, I was just guessing to be honest.
You are right, it is 58 miles by road I checked, but the link would not need to go centre to centre. If a Newcastle hs spur and station is built with the line approaching from the West (to avoid going through so many built up areas) then the distance between there (just west of Newcastle) and north of Carlisle as the crow flies is 40 miles. Obviously the line wouldn't be completely straight but I doubt it would be too much more. It would surely be cheaper to build than a hs line all the way to Edinburgh which would have to be more than double the length, wouldn't it?