High Speed 2 - do we really need it?

[jon0844]

How do you know SET has won the franchise?!

 

[grey_man]

Okay, lets look at some figures, just for arguments sake lets looks at a worst case scenario and HS2 cost 20% more than WCML services (The real world like for like difference of a HS1 ticket from London to Folkstone) . That would put an advance single up from £25 to £30 and a peak time ticket booked the day before up from £110/130 to £132/£156. Now what will happen if you were willing to travel slower is that WCML services in order to compete would have to reduce prices as I think it's fair to say tourists will pay the £5 to go the 'prestigious' HS2 service and businesses will find the extra £30 odd pound to get to London quicker and be guaranteed a seat. And as I said this the worst case scenario and there will be choice, choice which breeds competition.

I'm not sure how much some people are expecting HS2 service to be when they say only rich businessmen will be able to travel on HS2? I'm sure even the poorest of tourist could find an extra £5 if they booked in advance and wanted to travel on HS2 and get to London half an hour earlier.

But then again you can travel to Paris from London at high speed next day for £124 so the figures I derived are almost irrelevant. A ticket from London to Paris costing the same as on from Warrington to London. which means the fact that Eurostar travels at high speed doesn't even factor into the cost.

I like the way some critics suggest that HS2 will cost a fortune but have made no efforts themselves to come up with a suggested price for a ticket. Worst case or otherwise.

I know you're sincere, but you can't just cherry pick numbers and challenge people who are raising a legitimate concern without any evidence while glibly expecting them to fork out an extra 20% on an already uneconomic fare. Assuming my £261 standard return to London increases by let's say 4% a year for the next 20 years - based on trends I've seen since I first became a regular user over 15 years ago that would be a conservative estimate. That would make a standard return fare on WCML £572. If HS2 is 20% more, that would be £686.
Now I know conditions may change in the interim and there are mitigating factors like advance booking and off peak and so on, but that is ridiculous. My typical fare at the moment to travel is around £130 return if I book in advance and the timings are right and meetings don't overrun etc, so in 2021 by your logic my typical case on HS2 would be £320.
Who knows what the fares will be? But it can already be uneconomic to travel in certain situations without banging 20% on top of above inflation fare rises for two decades and not just for small businesses. I worked recently with a North West company that was spending over £2million on travel a year. They have already rewritten their policies on travel, including to deal with the fact that groups of employees travelling to meetings on trains is simply not viable. It would drive them out of business in the end. They now teleconference in more situations which they understand is not ideal for client relationships but feel they have no choice but to take these sorts of decisions. Least worst again.
These are genuine concerns and while everybody is arguing about the viability of tracks, compatibility, ten minute time savings and braking systems, people who already use trains are wondering whether anybody is looking at radical changes to how the railways are structured and their relations with passengers.

 

[jon0844]

We sometimes need to send people to do interviews at short notice, and our company now has a policy of getting the cheapest ticket - and, so far, we've always been able to get an advance ticket the day before travel. The cost isn't now issue for us, but rather the problem of deciding the correct trains to get (losing the flexibility of an open ticket) when staff can't know how long you'll be - so staff either have to rush away, or book a later train back that means wasting time hanging around. Like the airlines, it can sometimes be worth buying more than one ticket and choosing which one to use on the day, as it's still cheaper than an open ticket.

The last trip someone made to Manchester was £33, with the ticket booked at around 5.20pm the night before. He would have spent more on a taxi to his final destination than the train trip! When will things like that be made more competitive?

If HS2 is talking up having the capacity to run trains literally a few minutes apart, it will be able to move a quite shocking number of people up and down it - so it stands to reason that there will be cheaper fares. How could there not be?

What's more, in 10-20 years, the standard class offering is likely to be quite a lot different to now. New trains are already offering first-class features to all, making first class itself seem pointless (besides a bit more leg room, free Wi-Fi or a meal).

 

[Greenback]

I'm not sure I have such a rosy vision of the future! If the industry continues to be organised as it is now, the TOC's will charge whatever they judge the market will bear. They will be primarily interested in the maximisation of revenue, as now. This will mean, in all likelihood, that there will be some very, very cheap fares, and also some fares which the average person would describe as eye wateringly expensive.

If the TOC has done their sums right, they will have some customers who are quite prepared to pay the highest fares, and others who will pay the lowest fares because they will fit their travel plans around the availability of the cheapest tickets.

The whole argument about ticket cost is a bit pointless, really, as the fares will be dependent on government policy about who should pay for the railways. It's also ridiculous to pluck figures out of the air, since £50 now is worth less than it was in 1990. It's a bit like the stories of how much things would cost iin thrity years time that I used to read in my youth - or people saying they used to have a night out on less than a fiver!

I really don't think that arguing over whether an average ticket (if there is such a thing) is going to cost £100 or £500 advances the argument of either side.

 

[grey_man]

jonmorris

I take the point and I've enjoyed cheap fares but I know what the average fare is and even that is only acceptable when one or two people are travelling. Three or more makes a car the best option. So too do prices for one person at times. I'm not convinced by the 'stands to reason' argument because there are profound flaws in the network, no great sign they are being addressed so a structural monopoly combined with more ticketing complexity may be the result, not greater competition.

Get some commitments on sorting out this sort of stuff and I'll happy clap HS2 all the way.
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I'm not sure I have such a rosy vision of the future! If the industry continues to be organised as it is now, the TOC's will charge whatever they judge the market will bear. They will be primarily interested in the maximisation of revenue, as now. This will mean, in all likelihood, that there will be some very, very cheap fares, and also some fares which the average person would describe as eye wateringly expensive.

If the TOC has done their sums right, they will have some customers who are quite prepared to pay the highest fares, and others who will pay the lowest fares because they will fit their travel plans aroudn the availability of the cheapest tickets.

The whole argument about ticket cost is a bit pointless, really, as the fares will be dependent on government policy about who should pay for the railways. It's also ridiculous to pluck figures out of the air, since £50 now is worth less than it wa sin 1990. It's a bit liek that stories of how much things would cost iin thrity years time that I used to read in my youth - or people saying they used to have a night out on less than a fiver!

I really don't think that arguing over whether an average ticket (if there is such a thing) is going to cost £100 or £500 advances the argument of either side.

A fair point. It's a long way off.

 

[jon0844]

I really don't think that arguing over whether an average ticket (if there is such a thing) is going to cost £100 or £500 advances the argument of either side.

You are right that there's no point talking about an actual price, but if the route runs to high-capacity, there will surely be a low-cost airline style approach to ticketing just as there is now - thus very cheap tickets.

There may be a number of restrictions, even certain times of the day, but I doubt every seat will be a fortune - any more than they might opt to run it like a first class only service (as they did in Sweden when the X2000 launched).

Politics will play a part, but if they have nice long trains with lots of seats then, like an Airbus A380, you can reduce the per-passenger cost. Who knows, you might even find that HS2 becomes the cheap mass-transit route, while the services on the classic route opt to go for quality, for those who may accept a longer journey to enjoy a meal on the trip.

Or they may not.. we obviously don't know and can only guess. However common sense tells us that, in today's money, no TOC will charge everyone £600 to go to/from Birmingham however fast it might be.

 

[YesToHS2]

@GreenbackMy. I understand what you saying about trying to predict fares, but crtics (I don’t mean you Grey Man) try to make out that HS2 ticket costs will be astronomical and only fat cat business men will be able to afford them, but how can they themselves know this? The make these bold statements such as tickets will cost a fortune and that there are alternatives but don’t suggest viable alternatives and don’t even try to estimate how much these astronomical tickets will be.

If the case against HS2 was so strong, critics would be able to come up with a whole host of green and cheaper alternatives to HS2, they would be able to prove that tickets would be unaffordable and would not have to mislead the public quite so blatantly. That is why, to answer an question once posed I often feel it is necessary to pick up on points made by critics.

Prices on the WCML will not get any better if HS2 isn’t build, they can only get worse. The whole reason that some tickets are so unreasonably high at the moment is because TOCs are trying to price people off of certain routes and times.

I firmly believe that competition and extra capacity will lead to fairer tickets for all.

 

[Greenback]

@GreenbackMy. I understand what you saying about trying to predict fares, but crtics (I don’t mean you Grey Man) try to make out that HS2 ticket costs will be astronomical and only fat cat business men will be able to afford them, but how can they themselves know this? The make these bold statements such as tickets will cost a fortune and that there are alternatives but don’t suggest viable alternatives and don’t even try to estimate how much these astronomical tickets will be.

If the case against HS2 was so strong, critics would be able to come up with a whole host of green and cheaper alternatives to HS2, they would be able to prove that tickets would be unaffordable and would not have to mislead the public quite so blatantly. That is why, to answer an question once posed I often feel it is necessary to pick up on points made by critics.

Prices on the WCML will not get any better if HS2 isn’t build, they can only get worse. The whole reason that some tickets are so unreasonably high at the moment is because TOCs are trying to price people off of certain routes and times.

I firmly believe that competition and extra capacity will lead to fairer tickets for all.

I agree that extra capacity is needed, and I can buy into the argument that this extra capacity might actually push prices down. The whole point, though, is that no one can know what will happen. That's why the fares argument, whichever view is put forward, is ultimately irrelevant!

I am becoming more convinced of the benefits of HS2, as it is easier to pull apart most fo the arguments against it than those in favour of it!

 

[jon0844]

What is a greener alternative to a railway line?

Walking it pretty good, but I doubt we'll see many people walk from London to Birmingham and beyond.

Cycling?

An electric car? Well, if it had the range, that would be quite good - but think of the bulk/weight to move one person if a train can also run on electricity and carry many more. Certainly less energy per person, unless the train is totally empty at least.

Coaches?

Flying?

No, railways are the future. The only future, as far as I can tell.

 

[YesToHS2]

I think it’s been good to have a debate about prices. But think most people agree that we need capacity and that not building HS2 will not help reduce prices.

If I find my self in a position where I can raise peoples concerns to some one that can actually make changes then I will. The YesTo campaign is starting to be taken seriously now so you never know. I’m certainly not blindly supporting HS2 and want to see a network that works for the UK and fulfils is remit to shorten the north south divide.

 

[Wyvern]

SKY NEWS: High Speed Rail Link A 'White Elephant'

 

[Geezertronic]

SKY NEWS: High Speed Rail Link A 'White Elephant'

They had someone on the local West Midlands news saying something similar... saying that the money would be better spent on existing commuter routes. People who say these things don't seem to fully understand what they are saying (especially some of the comments I read in the Taxpayers Alliance PDF) as the existing commuter lines will benefit from extra capacity if/when the longer distance train journeys are diverted onto HS2

 

[vtiman]

I believe that they know exactly what they are saying and doing. sowing the seeds of discontent. for example the public mood towards higher income earners like say bankers is not exactly one of sympathy. so if you portray hs2 as some king of exclusive gentlemens club for fat cats exclusive usage whilst the mere mortals are shunted into cattle trucks on the sidings, the public will support that view.

or if you say that it is a waste of money everyone down the pub can mutter and nod their heads in unison and say "oh another white elephant" like the beer it goes down well and people lap it up !

because we are currently in a recession and people are losing their jobs (needlessly in my opinion) and everything including travel is getting more expensive it is very hard to explain that we still have to plan for the future and that we will hopefully not be in recession when the construction begins anyway.

if we have a government that is cutting back on the public sector which it seems to have a dogma against we might not be able to alter this situation until maybe the next election if then. it is all very well to say that the £30 billion would be better spent on schools and hospitals and not hs2 but if the government isnt going to do it anyway we cant throw away that amount of investment for the jobs and opportunities it will create.

i believe we must deal with the debt but i condem the lib con ! it is funny that we dont hear much criticism of crossrail and thameslink - out of site out of mind perhaps !

 

[Geezertronic]

i believe we must deal with the debt but i condem the lib con ! it is funny that we dont hear much criticism of crossrail and thameslink - out of site out of mind perhaps !

That's because Crossrail and Thameslink don't run through the Chilterns

 

[YesToHS2]

"or if you say that it is a waste of money everyone down the pub can mutter and nod their heads in unison and say "oh another white elephant" like the beer it goes down well and people lap it up !"

It’s just a shame these people don’t realise 10,000 of them come be building the dam thing.

I say build it now, if public infrastructure schemes can help China ride the recession out why not the UK? Build it now and build it to Scotland.