Hereford to Southport. Advance fare availability.

[trainophile]

Been checking for my usual Hereford to Southport return journey, outward 26th Sept, return 29th Sept, and I find that the £13 lowest price AP tickets that I always get suddenly fizzle out between Tues 27th and Weds 28th Sept, rocketing up to £20. This is the same for both directions from that date forward, as far as any APs are available (currently 30th Sept).

Seems (a) a bit steep an increase all in one go, and (b) a funny time to do it, mid-week.

When I looked last week there were no AP tickets at all loaded post-27th, then these £20 ones appeared. I've played around with different routes but they all come back the same.

Is this ATW's means of imposing a price increase I wonder? Or could there be some other explanation?
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Over 200 views and no comments! Got everyone baffled then? I had thought some kindly ATW employee might know what was going on.

Still the same scenario today so it looks as if the days of £13 tickets on that particular route are at an end. Funny they should leap to £20, as they used to have £16 ones as well as the £13 ones.

Oh well, I'm sure there's a reason .

 

[John @ home]

Over 200 views and no comments! Got everyone baffled then?

I don't think that the lack of responses means that anyone is baffled. I think there are a number of factors which may lead to the lack of responses.

First, I don't think the title given to the thread encourages people to open it. Sept 28th - Lowest AP fares suddenly disappeared suggests to me that, for a particular journey, Advance tickets at the lowest price level were available and then suddenly became unavailable. Well, that's what happens with Advance tickets. I know it's not what the OP's post says, but the misleading title may mean that fewer people read this thread.

Second, Advance fares are not regulated. Train companies choose whether to offer them and, if they decide to offer them, choose how many tickets (if any) to make available at each price level. They use quite sophisticated software to vary the number at each price level by time of day and day of the week in order to maximise revenue. For Hereford to Southport, ATW set route AP Shrewsbury fares at 4 levels: £13, £16, £20 and £23. Virgin set route VWC & Connections fares at 12 levels: six Standard from £10 to £41.50 and six First Class from £27.50 to £82.

It does not surprise me that the lowest levels of Advance fare are not always available.

 

[trainophile]

Ah, thanks John, at least I don't feel like the invisible Mrs No-mates now!

Reason I am surprised/puzzled is that I'd been watching for the release of AP tickets for that week, so checking every day until some appeared. When they eventually did, the first two days of the week still had the normal range, but from Weds 28th onwards there was nothing but a list of £20 ones. It's extremely unlikely that they put some £13 & £16 ones up and they were all snapped up for the entire day within a few hours - often I've been able to get £13 ones as close as a week before travel. My first thought was that there must be something "on" that weekend so they know they can sell full fares, but it's not school holidays or anything else that I can think of, and even so I'd expect at least a small allocation of the cheap ones to be made available, on past experience.

Apologies if the title was misleading, I couldn't think how to phrase it in a few words. It still attracted many people to read it, but obviously did not generate enough interest to prompt anyone before yourself to reply.

I'm now waiting to see what subsequent weeks have to offer. It does appear that they have decided they can't afford to sell anything less than £20 for that journey in future. I suppose there could be a clue in that Hereford to Chester is £25, and that's half the distance to Southport.

 

[Squaddie]

Reason I am surprised/puzzled is that I'd been watching for the release of AP tickets for that week, so checking every day until some appeared. When they eventually did, the first two days of the week still had the normal range, but from Weds 28th onwards there was nothing but a list of £20 ones. It's extremely unlikely that they put some £13 & £16 ones up and they were all snapped up for the entire day within a few hours...

It sounds as though that is exactly what happened.

Why didn't you snap up the £13 ticket yourself when you had the chance?

 

[trainophile]

It sounds as though that is exactly what happened.

Why didn't you snap up the £13 ticket yourself when you had the chance?

No sorry I think you misunderstand. At no time were there any tickets at less than £20 available for my journey (by any route) from 28th Sept onwards. Obviously if I'd seen one I would have snapped it up.

 

[Squaddie]

No sorry I think you misunderstand. At no time were there any tickets at less than £20 available for my journey (by any route) from 28th Sept onwards. Obviously if I'd seen one I would have snapped it up.

Ah, I see now. I did misunderstand your previous post. I should have read it more carefully.

 

[DaveNewcastle]

. . . . At no time were there any tickets at less than £20 available for my journey (by any route) from 28th Sept onwards. . . . . .

then its not clear what has "suddenly disappeared".

Either they were available and "suddenly disappeared", which suggests that they were bought immediately (and why not?); or they were never made available, in which case I wonder if the OP is making an assumption. The assumption that a TOC will continue to make the same number of tickets available at each price level for travel on the same service every day of every week?

There is no obligation for a TOC to do that, and indeed one of the benfits of Advance ticketing is that the TOC can use them to manage the demand - a technique which only works if the TOC actively adjusts their availability in response to the anticipated fluctuations in demand.

 

[trainophile]

Okay, I seem to be getting bogged down in semantics here. My bad, as the young 'uns say.

I started travelling from Hereford to Southport and back a couple of times a month in July 2008, when the cheapest AP single tickets were £10. In 2009 they were £11, in 2010 £12, and until the end of Sept this year they have been £13. Is it unreasonable of me to infer that this is an ongoing concessionary fare for this particular journey, subject to early booking and the t&cs of Advance tickets?

I was not aware that TOCs can withdraw previously offered ticket prices at will. I assumed (my bad again) that price increases happened probably annually, and with the courtesy of some publicity. I have learnt a lot from the comments in this thread.

Moral of the story, don't take anything for granted where ticket prices are concerned .

 

[John @ home]

Moral of the story, don't take anything for granted where ticket prices are concerned.

The only fare with some degree of predictability is a regulated fare. For Hereford - Southport, the regulated fare is the Off-Peak Return (SVR), currently £55.70.

The train operator's franchise requires them to make regulated fares available and places restrictions on the amount of any price increase and any limitations on the times at which they may be used.

The Hereford - Southport SVR forms part of a basket of fares and the train company is allowed to increase the total income from the basket by no more than RPI + 1% (2011) or RPI + 3% (2012, 2013 and 2014).

At present the Hereford - Southport SVR may be used at any time, but break of journey is not permitted on the outward leg.

The recent McNulty report into Rail Value for Money describes Standard Advance Single fares as "quasi-regulated". In doing this, consultants Steer Davies Gleave, the authors of this part of the McNulty report, have assumed that nobody would be daft enough to buy an inflexible Advance ticket at a higher price than a regulated flexible ticket. But that doesn't prevent the train companies offering them for sale at such a price. This is reported quite frequently on this forum.

 

[yorkie]

I will change the topic title, as it is confusing.

Is it unreasonable of me to infer that this is an ongoing concessionary fare for this particular journey, subject to early booking and the t&cs of Advance tickets?

I don't think I really understand the question.

I was not aware that TOCs can withdraw previously offered ticket prices at will. I assumed (my bad again) that price increases happened probably annually, and with the courtesy of some publicity. I have learnt a lot from the comments in this thread.

Moral of the story, don't take anything for granted where ticket prices are concerned .

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/times_fares/advance_conditions.html

Availability

Tickets must be purchased in advance of travel. They are sold in limited numbers and so subject to availability.

 

[FGWman]

It does sound like the fares have increased. Advance fares are unregulated and can be withdrawn and increased by any amount. The next fares round is actually due at the beginning of september.

With the long booking horizons perhaps they have just loaded the new fares onto the system. Until the next fares manual is issued sometime in August we wont really know.
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Just to add Ive checked the current NFM and fares do show at £13, £16 and £20. There is also supposed to be a Virgin west coast + connections advance for £10 - have you ever managed to get one of those ?

 

[trainophile]

It does sound like the fares have increased. Advance fares are unregulated and can be withdrawn and increased by any amount. The next fares round is actually due at the beginning of september.

With the long booking horizons perhaps they have just loaded the new fares onto the system. Until the next fares manual is issued sometime in August we wont really know.
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Just to add Ive checked the current NFM and fares do show at £13, £16 and £20. There is also supposed to be a Virgin west coast + connections advance for £10 - have you ever managed to get one of those ?

Thanks all, and thanks Yorkie for finally knocking my thread title into shape!

FGWman... shhhh... I have actually sorted a very circuitous Southport to Hereford trip for £10 on the 29th by searching "via Stafford", but I thought if I mention it here it might disappear, as it could just be a glitch - seems odd to get an extra hour's travel for half the most direct route(s) cost. That was going to be my fallback in future (at least until I get tired of the four changes!).

Unfortunately try as I might I can't find an equivalent one in the Hereford to Southport direction.

Yorkie the question you don't understand (and on re-reading it I don't blame you) was simply my misunderstanding as to the assumed continuity of longstanding AP fares. In four years my journey has only increased by £1 per year, yet suddenly two levels are removed. It seemed a bit draconian, but I now understand that they are under no obligation to continue with a particular AP fare just because it has always been like that.
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Well... just to conclude this saga, I've checked today and they have now reinstated the £13 fares! So whether it was a mistake, oversight, or they read this thread I don't know, but anyway I am happy now. Pity I've bought a £10 long-way-round one, although I suppose it adds to the fun!