Help required looking at a SOBC (Strategic Outline Business Case)

[CambrianView]

Having never seen a Strategic Business Outline Case (SOBC) before, or the Department for Transport's response to one, I've no idea how to judge the one I'm linking to here:

OswestryGobowenFOIAppendix.pdf

www.whatdotheyknow.com

Please can someone here with a bit of experience of the raillway industry take a look at this document for me and give me some idea of the key points, and the direction the applicant is having to move to take the restoration project to the next phase.

Many thanks

 

[Alfonso]

The covering letter says it will be funded to delivery which sounds very positive

 

[CambrianView]

The covering letter says it will be funded to delivery which sounds very positive

I'm part way reading through the entire document, so not yet in a position to be clear on what the Department for Transport's reply is. I'm not sure whether funding will be made up to the point of construction, or the contruction itself.

 

[zwk500]

Please can someone here with a bit of experience of the raillway industry take a look at this document for me and give me some idea of the key points, and the direction the applicant is having to move to take the restoration project to the next phase.

One Key page is Page 55 of the PDF, Table 10 - High Level options appraisal.

All Heavy Rail options are advised for rejection. 3 Light Rail/VLR options are marked 'retain' - A VLR shuttle to Gobowen, a tram between Oswestry-Gobowen, and a Tram-train running onto the rail network. Also Bus/Active travel not ruled out.

Also look at Appendix A - the risk register. Some quite significant 'high' risks there.

 

[CambrianView]

One Key page is Page 55 of the PDF, Table 10 - High Level options appraisal.

All Heavy Rail options are advised for rejection. 3 Light Rail/VLR options are marked 'retain' - A VLR shuttle to Gobowen, a tram between Oswestry-Gobowen, and a Tram-train running onto the rail network. Also Bus/Active travel not ruled out.

Also look at Appendix A - the risk register. Some quite significant 'high' risks there.

Many thanks, zwk500.

I'm slowly working through the entire report but have taken note of the Outline Risk Register (page numbered 82). This table suggests more research work is needed by CHR and DfT.

Regarding the very first page from the then Minister of State for Rail to the local MP inwhich he says "...I am delighted to be able to confirm that the project will funded to delivery, subject to future updates to the project business plan". Having read sections of the Strategic Outline Business Case I got the impression that the DfT were in talks with Network Rail about the restoration project, so I asked Network Rail if they were currently in talks with Cambrian Heritages Railways. A representative of Network Rail phoned earlier today to really only restate what the SOBC says and that all development projects have been on hold due to the general election.

I made reference to the Rail Minsters' letter quoting "funding to delivery" seeking clarification as to whether that meant administrative funding or actual capital funding. He said he'd look into that for me.

 

[Llanigraham]

"Funding to deliver" doesn't mean that there is money to rebuild the line. It means that there is money to look into all the different options, one of which could still be "forget it"!

 

[zwk500]

Regarding the very first page from the then Minister of State for Rail to the local MP inwhich he says "...I am delighted to be able to confirm that the project will funded to delivery, subject to future updates to the project business plan".

Worth pointing out that at this point the only thing that's been recommended to deliver is the OBC. Which may still conclude the VLR options aren't viable on closer inspection.

Having read sections of the Strategic Outline Business Case I got the impression that the DfT were in talks with Network Rail about the restoration project, so I asked Network Rail if they were currently in talks with Cambrian Heritages Railways. A representative of Network Rail phoned earlier today to really only restate what the SOBC says and that all development projects have been on hold due to the general election.

The outcome of the SOBC appears to be that heavy rail isn't viable for this proposal. It also strongly hints in the narrative that the project's best chance of success is to operate entirely separately from the national rail network, as that's when costs balloon. NR are not going to be particularly interested in this project as there's not really a lot for them to do on the isolated options and the Tram-Train running to Shrewsbury is going to be far more problems than it's worth from a maintenance and operations point of view.

In order to get a rail option for this study, the best chance of success will be to engage with National Highways, as the A5 is fundamental to this project, the VLR people, and possibly try and talk to Midland Metro (or whatever they're called now) about Trams vs VLR. Although what I'd actually be pursuing at this point is a 'fixed' bus link to Gobowen or even Shrewsbury station, with through rail ticketing and times in journey planners. This is a shorter lead (so lower costs and quicker returns), and will form the basis of some actual data with which to develop a Light Rail proposal at a later point.
Google says it's a c.35 minute drive to Shrewsbury down the A5, so two coaches operating an hourly service from Oswestry Coach park with a good layover in Shrewsbury to connect to as many things as possible with times, fares and delay repay would be relatively easy to setup.

 

[30907]

The outcome of the SOBC appears to be that heavy rail isn't viable for this proposal. It also strongly hints in the narrative that the project's best chance of success is to operate entirely separately from the national rail network, as that's when costs balloon.

I wonder if the VLR etc options would make crossing the A5 easier? Traffic lights rather than a full LC?

 

[Bald Rick]

Although what I'd actually be pursuing at this point is a 'fixed' bus link to Gobowen or even Shrewsbury station, with through rail ticketing and times in journey planners. This is a shorter lead (so lower costs and quicker returns), and will form the basis of some actual data with which to develop a Light Rail proposal at a later point.

Exactly right - this is what should happen. And it could be done for rather less then the cost of developing the next stage of the ‘rail’ project, with immediate benefits.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Jul 2024 ==

I wonder if the VLR etc options would make crossing the A5 easier? Traffic lights rather than a full LC?

There is simply no way a level crossing of any type is going to be permitted on the A5 / A483. Not least that the disbenefits in terms of extended journey time for road users, additional fuel costs and carbon emissions resulting from stopping and starting will be likely to far outweigh the journey time benefits and carbon reductions of the ‘rail’ link.

It’s so obvious that a dedicated shuttle bus/coach service with through ticketing is the answer here. Cheap, easy, more accessible, more frequent, and quick.

 

[CambrianView]

I may have added this link before, but this is the press cutting anouncement after the Department for Transport responded to the SOBC last year:

Full steam ahead: Delight at funding for Oswestry to Gobowen community rail line

Bosses at Oswestry's heritage railway say they are thrilled at news that the Government has agreed to foot the bill for a community rail link connecting the town to the mainline, with a stop at the country's orthopaedic hospital.

www.shropshirestar.com

The article quotes officials for the client saying "The Department of Transport has funded to delivery but that does have caveats including being dependent on future updates."

I'm currently ploughing through the SOBC to identify these "caveats".

 

[nwales58]

All Heavy Rail options are advised for rejection. 3 Light Rail/VLR options are marked 'retain' - A VLR shuttle to Gobowen, a tram between Oswestry-Gobowen, and a Tram-train running onto the rail network. Also Bus/Active travel not ruled out.

Pretty clear already which options will be chosen then. As an interim 'quick win' of course. Which lasts until revenue funding for the bus/DRT is re-prioritised elsewhere.

Once you have DRT in place, why take the traffic to the shuttle when it would be better for the users to carry on the extra couple of miles to Gobowen station or the orthpaedic hospital?

People above pointing out 'funding to deliver' means to complete the study are spot on, to me it's PR obfuscation.

 

[Mag_seven]

This issue is being discussed here:

Oswestry to Gobowen branch line reopening - The Truth

The plan is in two phases: A light railway from Gobowen to Park Hall Halt (and access to the local hospital), and from there under the A5 via a new tunnel, estimated to cost over £9 million, to Oswestry. This is a single track line. The plan is to run the service every hour at first, tying in...

www.railforums.co.uk

Please use that thread.