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Heatwave thresholds

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Jamesrob637

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Will there be any change to the 3-day heatwave thresholds in the UK? On the eastern side, they extend to very near Scarborough. However, on the western side, Warrington or north Derbyshire (the Greater Manchester border) is the limit, some 50 miles south.
 
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styles

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There's a reason I moved from London to Scotland.

Even then, I'm considering fitting aircon into my home office. About a grand, so not cheap, but I work in this room what, 8 hours a day.

Is there an official threshold for a heatwave?
 

styles

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Three consecutive days when the maximum daily temperature exceeds a pre-determined threshold. In Scotland, believe this is 25°C. Can be higher elsewhere in the U.K. (In London, it's 28°C).
You're right.

I found this web page on the Met Office website for anybody interested. No text to quote from the page as it's mainly a map of the UK with different temperature thresholds, with basically the south east of England being 27-28 degrees C, Midlands and south west being 26 degrees C, and everywhere else being 25 degrees C.


Also, to answer the original question, I found this web page, which demonstrates how the heatwave thresholds have changed over the years:


The original heatwave thresholds were based on a reference climate period for 1981-2010. The heatwave definition was intended to be flexible and to be reviewed and revised in order to follow our changing climate and represent heatwaves relative to the “current” climate. Therefore the thresholds are moving to the most recent 1991-2020 climate averaging period introduced in January this year. 6 counties are moving from a 27°C threshold to 28°C, one from 26 to 27°C, and one from 25 to 26°C.

heatwave-thresholds.png


The central map above shows the original thresholds, the right hand one the updated thresholds and, as an additional demonstration of our changing climate, the left hand one shows what they would have been if we had had this definition in place for 1961-1990.

Counties changing from a 27C to a 28C threshold:

Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire

Counties changing from a 26C to a 27C threshold:

Lincolnshire

Counties changing from a 25C to a 26C threshold:


East Riding of Yorkshire

So it does appear that the heatwave thresholds are continuously reviewed. They were last updated in 2022, so fairly recently. I could certainly see them change again in my lifetime.
 

dangie

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There's a reason I moved from London to Scotland.

Even then, I'm considering fitting aircon into my home office. About a grand, so not cheap, but I work in this room what, 8 hours a day.
Didn't Billy Connolly say 'Scotland has two seasons.... June and Winter...'
Will the aircon do heating as well?
 

styles

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Didn't Billy Connolly say 'Scotland has two seasons.... June and Winter...'
Will the aircon do heating as well?
I honestly do not feel the (UK) cold. I despise UK heat though.

I camp in the Highlands in winter in a 1-season sleeping bag designed only for summer use, and I sleep like a baby.

I go to Snowdonia/Eryri on a sunny weekend and I wake up feeling absolutely awful with the heat.

I've camped in countries like Egypt, uninhabited Croatian islands in the Adriatic, Libya; and I absolutely hate it.

Our heating is barely on even in winter - we use blankets and then heat individual rooms rather than the whole house. (We do put the heating hot water on a short time each day to prevent pipe problems). I switch it on when my mum comes because she feels the cold.

I am not built for warm temperatures at all. I can't stand it.
 

dastocks

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Even then, I'm considering fitting aircon into my home office. About a grand, so not cheap, but I work in this room what, 8 hours a day.
You should consider a decent sized ceiling fan as an alternative. When I lived in New York 30+ years ago I read an article about these: back then the argument was that you got 90% of the effect of full aiir-conditioning at less than 10% of the cost. Given the rise in electricity prices since then I suspect the balance of costs favour a ceiling fan even more.

I fitted ceiling fans in my bedroom and living room when I got back (they are still there over 30 years later) and have never felt uncomfortably hot in the home since then.
 

Jamesrob637

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Yeah, I'm right on the border of 25 and 26, but I think Greater Manchester should fall into the 26 category because it's way more urban than the surrounding counties.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

You're right.

I found this web page on the Met Office website for anybody interested. No text to quote from the page as it's mainly a map of the UK with different temperature thresholds, with basically the south east of England being 27-28 degrees C, Midlands and south west being 26 degrees C, and everywhere else being 25 degrees C.


Also, to answer the original question, I found this web page, which demonstrates how the heatwave thresholds have changed over the years:




So it does appear that the heatwave thresholds are continuously reviewed. They were last updated in 2022, so fairly recently. I could certainly see them change again in my lifetime.

Although Cheshire is 26, and so is East Yorkshire, which is hardly the Midlands!
 

styles

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Yeah, I'm right on the border of 25 and 26, but I think Greater Manchester should fall into the 26 category because it's way more urban than the surrounding counties.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==



Although Cheshire is 26, and so is East Yorkshire, which is hardly the Midlands!
I knew somebody would pick up on this. I thought putting basically in italics might suggest I'm summarising, but maybe not.

Anyway Cheshire is the midlands in my view, as somebody who lives in Scotland, so there we are. Happy to have a white collar fight to settle the matter and agree that the whole 'northern' obsession is garbage and not even true :)
 

Class 317

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I don't believe that thresholds are likely to be revised upwards much more in future. The threshold inform weather warnings and are set to inform vulnerable people, health, emergency services, employers etc off increases in risks posed by sustained hot weather. These weather warnings then trigger contingency plans to mitigate effects etc.

What I can see happening is changes to the weather warnings that come alongside them to better reflect the likely health effects particularly of extremely hot weather in the late 30's and early 40's zone.
 

bleeder4

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It's probably about time we passed legislation requiring property developers to install aircon as standard in new-build homes. We are one of the few developed countries that doesn't do it. I think only something like 5% of our homes have aircon, whereas even our closest neighbour France is up to 20%. As aircon system also do heating, it would also improve the rate at which we get rid of gas boilers and radiators etc
 

Tetchytyke

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It's probably about time we passed legislation requiring property developers to install aircon as standard in new-build homes.
No, the last thing we need is more air conditioning. They are electricity hungry and the heat they pump out just makes the outside hotter.

The problem in the UK is summer is the same as it is in winter: a lack of proper insulation. Proper insulation keeps the both the cold and the heat out of the building. We need better insulation, we need shutters on windows, we need ceiling fans.
 

bleeder4

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No, the last thing we need is more air conditioning. They are electricity hungry and the heat they pump out just makes the outside hotter.

The problem in the UK is summer is the same as it is in winter: a lack of proper insulation. Proper insulation keeps the both the cold and the heat out of the building. We need better insulation, we need shutters on windows, we need ceiling fans.
In today's Health & Safety, risk-averse, society I doubt that ceiling fans would be allowed. I haven't seen one in years! Too much risk of someone jumping up and getting their head sliced. Can't say I agree, but it's the society we now find ourselves living in.
 

gswindale

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I certainly agree that we do need ceiling fans - we had our living/dining rooms redecorated and new flooring put in five or so years ago - the old lights were absolutely horrible, so also needed replacing. Our idea was, partly due to the size of the room, to replace the ceiling lights with combined fan/lights, but we could not find any that looked suitably modern enough to stop our room looking like it was still stuck in the 1970s!
 

dastocks

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In today's Health & Safety, risk-averse, society I doubt that ceiling fans would be allowed. I haven't seen one in years! Too much risk of someone jumping up and getting their head sliced. Can't say I agree, but it's the society we now find ourselves living in.
There are plenty of places selling them. The point of a large fan (I think mine are around 1.8m diameter) is that it moves a lot of air fairly slowly. My installations are definitely *not* H&S compliant because I have fairly low ceilings. The rotating mass is low and, although you'll certainly feel it if you get in its way, it has never drawn blood.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I certainly agree that we do need ceiling fans - we had our living/dining rooms redecorated and new flooring put in five or so years ago - the old lights were absolutely horrible, so also needed replacing. Our idea was, partly due to the size of the room, to replace the ceiling lights with combined fan/lights, but we could not find any that looked suitably modern enough to stop our room looking like it was still stuck in the 1970s!
I'm looking at a website called lights.co.uk right now. Seems to have a good selection of styles.
 

D1511

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I honestly do not feel the (UK) cold. I despise UK heat though.

I camp in the Highlands in winter in a 1-season sleeping bag designed only for summer use, and I sleep like a baby.

I go to Snowdonia/Eryri on a sunny weekend and I wake up feeling absolutely awful with the heat.

I've camped in countries like Egypt, uninhabited Croatian islands in the Adriatic, Libya; and I absolutely hate it.

Our heating is barely on even in winter - we use blankets and then heat individual rooms rather than the whole house. (We do put the heating hot water on a short time each day to prevent pipe problems). I switch it on when my mum comes because she feels the cold.

I am not built for warm temperatures at all. I can't stand it.
Ah, you're one of these people that "run hot". It's an actual thing, and I have a doctor hillwalking mate who is the same as you, so he uses a flimsy little sleeping bag that weighs nothing, whereas I "run cold" and take my sea to summit 3 season bag!
Hope to meet you up the hills one day! :lol:
 

styles

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Ah, you're one of these people that "run hot". It's an actual thing, and I have a doctor hillwalking mate who is the same as you, so he uses a flimsy little sleeping bag that weighs nothing, whereas I "run cold" and take my sea to summit 3 season bag!
Hope to meet you up the hills one day! :lol:
Sometimes I think I'd prefer to run cooler, because I can make myself warmer with layers etc but can't make myself cooler really.

But then I remember that I get away with a 600g sleeping bag that takes up barely any space in the bag.

Pros and cons to each! I mainly dislike running warm because overseas hiking/camping trips are just uncomfortable. Alps can be the dream though. Scotland north of the central belt is a good sweetspot (bar the midges).
 

D1511

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Sometimes I think I'd prefer to run cooler, because I can make myself warmer with layers etc but can't make myself cooler really.

But then I remember that I get away with a 600g sleeping bag that takes up barely any space in the bag.

Pros and cons to each! I mainly dislike running warm because overseas hiking/camping trips are just uncomfortable. Alps can be the dream though. Scotland north of the central belt is a good sweetspot (bar the midges).
Running a bit colder than most certainly helps on days like today, as I appear marginally less dishevelled than my fellow passengers on 1F22 this afternoon! I've done a fair bit of warm weather hillwalking too, mostly in Mallorca, and it comes in handy there. But carrying 2kg more weight on multi day hikes in the winter is a lot less fun.....so as you say, swings and roundabouts! But I think I prefer the ability to put some extra layers on when I'm cold to being roasted and not having any more layers left to remove!
 

styles

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Running a bit colder than most certainly helps on days like today, as I appear marginally less dishevelled than my fellow passengers on 1F22 this afternoon! I've done a fair bit of warm weather hillwalking too, mostly in Mallorca, and it comes in handy there. But carrying 2kg more weight on multi day hikes in the winter is a lot less fun.....so as you say, swings and roundabouts! But I think I prefer the ability to put some extra layers on when I'm cold to being roasted and not having any more layers left to remove!
I think on balance I'd also prefer that option!

Maybe if I go to a sauna/steam room every day for a year I can acclimatise? :D
 

D1511

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I think on balance I'd also prefer that option!

Maybe if I go to a sauna/steam room every day for a year I can acclimatise? :D
I'll ask my doctor friend if that's an option. I suspect probably not! :lol:
 

D1511

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If you could ask them for a David Lloyd gym+spa membership on prescription that would probably do the trick :D
Not sure that would qualify for social prescribing..... :D
A discount card for Edinburgh Leisure is the most I've ever seen!
 

JamesT

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I don't believe that thresholds are likely to be revised upwards much more in future. The threshold inform weather warnings and are set to inform vulnerable people, health, emergency services, employers etc off increases in risks posed by sustained hot weather. These weather warnings then trigger contingency plans to mitigate effects etc.
As @styles said in post #4, the thresholds were revised at the start of the decade to be relative to the average temperatures of the previous three decades. They'll do it again at the start of the next decade. As it seems pretty much every year recently has been hailed as the 'hottest on record', a baseline of 2001-2030 is almost certainly going to have higher averages than the current 1991-2020. Therefore 10°C above average is going to be higher than the current values.
 
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1D54

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Big thank you to the lovely EMR station mistress at Narborough who appeared from the ticket office at midday and handed out ice cold bottles of water to the half dozen passengers waiting for a train on a platform with no shade. It was much appreciated.
 

Cdd89

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The problem in the UK is summer is the same as it is in winter: a lack of proper insulation. Proper insulation keeps the both the cold and the heat out of the building. We need better insulation, we need shutters on windows, we need ceiling fans.
Nobody ever makes this argument about heating in winter though. People accept that some level of heating is required during the coldest days, but don't seem to accept that some level of cooling is required during the hottest days. It's bizarre.

I had AC installed in my flat a few years ago and I get huge amounts of use out of it :)
 

Tetchytyke

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People accept that some level of heating is required during the coldest days, but don't seem to accept that some level of cooling is required during the hottest days.
The same thing applies in both directions: in winter you don’t want to let the cold in/the heat out, and in summer you don’t want to let the heat in/cold out.

People have survived for millennia without air conditioning by building their buildings properly to keep them cool.

Instead we now build everything out of glass and then use huge amounts of electricity to pump the heat outside.
 

Cdd89

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People have survived for millennia without air conditioning by building their buildings properly to keep them cool.
You're entitled to your view, but just remember that if flats are built without air conditioning, people will add it for themselves. And these systems are far more wasteful than those built into the buildings. For example, my system uses 5 m³ of water per day - and I run it basically 24/7 during summer.

That said, I think the even bigger inexcusable thing is that the UK / London still has buses going around without air-conditioning. Apart from being unpleasant, it's a great way to deter people from using public transport! And if someone uses a bus in summer and has a bad experience, the effect will likely persist long beyond.
 

stadler

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Air Conditioning is absolutely a necessity nowadays. I installed air conditioning in my house after that major heatwave a few years ago and it is the best investment i made. In the summer like the recent heatwave you really appreciate it. When the temperature is above 20° it is simply too difficult to keep cool using any other methods. Even well insulated houses get hot in such temperatures.
 

gswindale

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Air Conditioning is absolutely a necessity nowadays. I installed air conditioning in my house after that major heatwave a few years ago and it is the best investment i made. In the summer like the recent heatwave you really appreciate it. When the temperature is above 20° it is simply too difficult to keep cool using any other methods. Even well insulated houses get hot in such temperatures.
Not sure where you live, but here in Berkshire, we hit the tropical high of about 24C this afternoon. House seems perfectly pleasant this evening with just the fanlight open.
 

Harpo

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Our home is SE-NW. On hot days the routine is blinds down and windows closed hot (SE) side, windows open cool (NW) side. If needed, switch on the cooker extractor (SE side) to draw air across from the cool side. Evening/night, open both sides.

No air con needed.
 
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