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Heathrow Third Runway

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YorkRailFan

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London Heathrow airport is reviewing its long-term expansion options, including the possibility of reigniting plans to build a third runway.

Plans were in place for the expansion of the UK hub pre-Covid, but were shelved amid the devastating impact of the pandemic on airline traffic.

Speaking at the Airlines 2023 conference in London today, Heathrow chief strategy officer Chris Annetts said that under new chief executive Thomas Woldbye, options for long-term capacity growth at the hub are again being considered.“The question is how do you deliver [airport expansion] and when does it come,” he states. “That’s the big question that we’re now discussing with Thomas joining us about a month ago.

“We are now actively reviewing that and trying to work out the answer to that questionAcknowledging that “expansion as a programme has a lot of baggage with it”, Annetts nevertheless says that the need for more airport capacity in the UK is demonstrated by “long-term demand forecasts that still look broadly the same as they did pre-Covid”.

Heathrow has “plenty of room to grow in the short to medium term” with its current two-runway system, but fulfilling the UK’s “full growth potential” would require projects such as Heathrow’s third runway and the use of a second runway at Gatwick, he suggests.

Speaking at the same event, UK transport minister Mark Harper said of a potential third runway at the British Airways hub: “If Heathrow want to bring forward a proposal, that will obviously get looked at in the proper way.“I can’t set out a view either way.”

Harper notes that as transport secretary, he would “effectively be the planning authority” for the project.

Article Link: https://www.flightglobal.com/airlin...xpansion-options-under-new-ceo/155921.article

It's frustrating, Heathrow wants and needs a third runway, I would argue that they need a fourth runway, but the Government refuses to accept it, but neither would a Labour Government.
 
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Harpers Tate

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If a few more carriers made better use of the "real" provincial airports - like VA (VS) do at Manchester, which is as good or better a location for a big chunk of the country (i.e anywhere north of about Birmingham) from an access POV - rather than transiting everybody via LHR as BA do - then, for every such passenger, there would be 4 passenger movements saved at LHR per round trip. Or 2 if they arrive at LHR as I would normally - by train.

If it takes some encouragement for them to do so then so be it. How about a USA TSA outpost a la Dublin or Shannon?
 

Tetchytyke

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As I said in the other thread, Heathrow doesn’t need a third runway. What it needs to do is get its airlines to manage their slots more effectively.

The current market is for smaller planes more frequently. Fine, but when one A380 carries the same number of passengers as two Boeing 787s, there’s your obvious solution if you need more capacity.

It’s the same problem as with UK railways- slots being filled with piddly little planes and then the airlines claiming they need more slots. No, they need to upgauge.

On top of that, one third of all passengers through Heathrow are transiting, and that’s been consistent for at least the last 20 years. I don’t think it’s quite as simple as telling BA to use more provincial capacity, that’s not how a hub-and-spoke model works, but in my experience most people off BA domestic are transferring to a BA connection, usually long haul. I’m sure a direct BA Manchester-JFK would wash its face.
 

Watershed

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The current market is for smaller planes more frequently. Fine, but when one A380 carries the same number of passengers as two Boeing 787s, there’s your obvious solution if you need more capacity.
Given the value of Heathrow slots (as much as $75m apiece), you can be sure that the airlines would already be doing so if it were profitable. The fact of the matter is that the A380 is too large and inefficient to profitably run on most routes - it's cheaper for BA/AA to run 10 JFK-LHR flights in the space of 5 hours using 777s, rather than operating say 2 or 3 less with just A380s.

Furthermore, A380s have a much higher separation requirement for following smaller aircraft, so unless you were to operate enough flights with A380s to guarantee being able to slot in another one behind (as happens with Emirates at Dubai) you'd be losing nearly as much capacity as you gain.

On top of that, one third of all passengers through Heathrow are transiting, and that’s been consistent for at least the last 20 years. I don’t think it’s quite as simple as telling BA to use more provincial capacity, that’s not how a hub-and-spoke model works, but in my experience most people off BA domestic are transferring to a BA connection, usually long haul. I’m sure a direct BA Manchester-JFK would wash its face.
Aer Lingus' cost base is evidently much lower, hence IAG choose to operate MAN-JFK flights through them rather than BA.
 
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YorkRailFan

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As I said in the other thread, Heathrow doesn’t need a third runway. What it needs to do is get its airlines to manage their slots more effectively.

The current market is for smaller planes more frequently. Fine, but when one A380 carries the same number of passengers as two Boeing 787s, there’s your obvious solution if you need more capacity.

It’s the same problem as with UK railways- slots being filled with piddly little planes and then the airlines claiming they need more slots. No, they need to upgauge.

On top of that, one third of all passengers through Heathrow are transiting, and that’s been consistent for at least the last 20 years. I don’t think it’s quite as simple as telling BA to use more provincial capacity, that’s not how a hub-and-spoke model works, but in my experience most people off BA domestic are transferring to a BA connection, usually long haul. I’m sure a direct BA Manchester-JFK would wash its face.
I think the issue the industry has is that its found itself in a cycle of airlines ordering smaller, twin jets, so when manufacturers do build a larger aircraft (think A380 and 747-8) airlines don't order them, so manufacturers not building them.
 

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I'm surprised anyone books connecting flights with BA via Heathrow. Their shorthaul operation seems incredibly unreliable from my own personal experience. If any minor thing goes wrong at Heathrow it has immense knock-on effects on their shorthaul operation.

A significant number of fellow customers on short haul flights from popular tourism destinations in Europe and north Africa seem to be Americans connecting at Heathrow onto BA or American Airlines flights to the USA and it is this which Heathrow seems to really excel at. Certainly if I lived outside of the South East I don't know if I'd ever be loyal to BA but would instead connect via Amsterdam.
 

Tetchytyke

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Given the value of Heathrow slots (as much as $75m apiece), you can be sure that the airlines would already be doing so if it were profitable. The fact of the matter is that the A380 is too large and inefficient to profitably run on most routes
I’d say the cost of Heathrow slots encourages slot-sitting, to be quite honest. Which is why you get the small jets running more frequently- if BA stop running LHR-JFK pretty much hourly then they’ll have to give up the slots.

The A380 isn’t the solution to all routes, obviously, but there is a *lot* of surprisingly small planes flying out of Heathrow. Look at the number of A319s and B737s.
 

Mojo

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If they have Avios to spend and are rapidly approaching a deadline, then yes, it can make a difference.
But if you don't use such airlines then why would you be collecting Avios? If I didn't live within the catchment area of London airports then there is no way I would choose to transfer via Heathrow.
 

YorkRailFan

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But if you don't use such airlines then why would you be collecting Avios? If I didn't live within the catchment area of London airports then there is no way I would choose to transfer via Heathrow.
I too don't transfer at Heathrow, but I guess passengers who prefer to check in their bags at smaller airports like Edinburgh and then only have to transfer at Heathrow, meaning that they don't have to stress about it in such a big airport as Heathrow.
 

Tetchytyke

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If I didn't live within the catchment area of London airports then there is no way I would choose to transfer via Heathrow.
I think most people go on price. If KLM/Air France are cheaper they’ll use them, if not it’ll be BA or Lufthansa or whoever. Most people don’t fly enough to get status with any airline.

I wouldn’t say Heathrow is any more unreliable or difficult to use than Schiphol or CDG.
 

gabrielhj07

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The current market is for smaller planes more frequently. Fine, but when one A380 carries the same number of passengers as two Boeing 787s, there’s your obvious solution if you need more capacity.
Where are these A380s going to come from? Most airlines that have them already send them to Heathrow.
 

AM9

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Back on the topic of the third runway, given the time that it would take to bring that expansion into meaningful use, I think that the whole scope of air travel will change, possibly forcing the global airline industry to reduce its carbon and geogaphical impact. This will particularly be relevant to Western Europe where other travel and communication modes will be seen as less damaging.
The increasing resistance of both local and provincial interests to large scale development in West London will in my view probably make sure that little or no real progress will made on the expansion before 2050. It will be far too easy to keep kicking the can into the long grass whilst at the same time, actual demand for air travel will be constrained by rising costs.
 

telstarbox

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As I said in the other thread, Heathrow doesn’t need a third runway. What it needs to do is get its airlines to manage their slots more effectively.

The current market is for smaller planes more frequently. Fine, but when one A380 carries the same number of passengers as two Boeing 787s, there’s your obvious solution if you need more capacity.

It’s the same problem as with UK railways- slots being filled with piddly little planes and then the airlines claiming they need more slots. No, they need to upgauge.

On top of that, one third of all passengers through Heathrow are transiting, and that’s been consistent for at least the last 20 years. I don’t think it’s quite as simple as telling BA to use more provincial capacity, that’s not how a hub-and-spoke model works, but in my experience most people off BA domestic are transferring to a BA connection, usually long haul. I’m sure a direct BA Manchester-JFK would wash its face.
I'm sure people would use it but would BA need to base more staff and catering kit at MAN to make it work?
 

Tetchytyke

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Back on the topic of the third runway, given the time that it would take to bring that expansion into meaningful use, I think that the whole scope of air travel will change, possibly forcing the global airline industry to reduce its carbon and geogaphical impact
I’d agree with that aspect too. By the time an expansion is agreed, designed, built, and put into operation, the expansion of airports is going to look like a huge anachronism.

Where are these A380s going to come from?
Somewhere between a third and half of all A380s built remain in storage.

My wider point was that Heathrow is clogged up with lots of small planes and, rather than concreting over yet more huge chunks of west London, airlines should consider up-gauging to meet capacity. Look how many departures from Heathrow are using A319s or Boeing 737s.
 

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Somewhere between a third and half of all A380s built remain in storage.
It wasn't so long ago that the A380 looked like an aircraft that was no longer appropriate to the global maket and many major airlines were trading down to A350s and B787s. Although I think that Airbus won't build any more or direct successors, there will be a healthy market for those in storage for some time.


My wider point was that Heathrow is clogged up with lots of small planes and, rather than concreting over yet more huge chunks of west London, airlines should consider up-gauging to meet capacity. Look how many departures from Heathrow are using A319s or Boeing 737s.


That is likely as the new breed of mid-sized aircraft (e.g. A330NEO, A350 & B787) have minimum runway requirements that are easily met by many short haul destinations, especially in Europe.[/QUOTE]
 
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I too don't transfer at Heathrow, but I guess passengers who prefer to check in their bags at smaller airports like Edinburgh and then only have to transfer at Heathrow, meaning that they don't have to stress about it in such a big airport as Heathrow.

Excellent service if you are coming from Central Scotland with the wonderful Lounges at Edinburgh and Glasgow added to those at Heathrow.

For those eligible The First Wing at T5 is also an excellent perk.

These days I just travel with a rucksack having been burnt numerous times awaiting luggage.

They should just get on and build the Third Runway as soon as possible.
 

Lost property

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I'm sure people would use it but would BA need to base more staff and catering kit at MAN to make it work?
BA inc BOAC / BEA had a base at MAN for many years and certainly a non code share JFK service.

Enter the BAR debacle. They closed BFS virtually overnight, GLA had a token gesture due to the politics...GLA >LHR > LGW was a well established career path, MAN was reduced to little more than a line station, funnily enough once the lease on the hangar expired, and BHX was the last to fall.

Even LGW went, eventually.

BA isn't known as London Airways for nothing
 

gabrielhj07

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Somewhere between a third and half of all A380s built remain in storage.

My wider point was that Heathrow is clogged up with lots of small planes and, rather than concreting over yet more huge chunks of west London, airlines should consider up-gauging to meet capacity. Look how many departures from Heathrow are using A319s or Boeing 737s.
The problem is that airlines can stimulate demand by flying small planes frequently.

BA have up to 5 daily LHR-JER rotations, which, taking the 19th November as an example, are all operated by their A319s. Assuming an average load factor of 93% across those 5 flights, BA could offer the same capacity on the route with 3 A321neos. If they did that, however, the loss of frequency (and therefore convenience) would reduce the demand for flights on that route - the old XC 'more trains with fewer coaches' fallacy. Not to mention the losses from withdrawing the A321neo from routes on which it is already profitable.
 

mpthomson

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I’d agree with that aspect too. By the time an expansion is agreed, designed, built, and put into operation, the expansion of airports is going to look like a huge anachronism.


Somewhere between a third and half of all A380s built remain in storage.

My wider point was that Heathrow is clogged up with lots of small planes and, rather than concreting over yet more huge chunks of west London, airlines should consider up-gauging to meet capacity. Look how many departures from Heathrow are using A319s or Boeing 737s.
Nothing like, there are very few now in storage. Just about every airline has reactivated them. There are just shy of 200 in service out of 251 built, and Lufthansa has announced that it's reactivating a further one.
 

Ted633

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Somewhere between a third and half of all A380s built remain in storage.

My wider point was that Heathrow is clogged up with lots of small planes and, rather than concreting over yet more huge chunks of west London, airlines should consider up-gauging to meet capacity. Look how many departures from Heathrow are using A319s or Boeing 737s.
Just because a route operates numerous times a day with small aircraft doesn't mean you can swap it for a couple of flights with larger aircraft. Reducing frequency while maintaining capacity doesn't tend to work. The Airbus A300 was originally designed to operate as a high capacity, shorter range aircraft. It was only when it's range was increased that it became the success it is today.
 

Tetchytyke

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If they did that, however, the loss of frequency (and therefore convenience) would reduce the demand for flights on that route
Given the environmental impact of aviation, I fail to see any downsides to this.

Just because a route operates numerous times a day with small aircraft doesn't mean you can swap it for a couple of flights with larger aircraft.
Well you can, very easily.

The airlines may prefer not to, obviously, but that’s not the same thing at all. The fact BA would rather fly five A319s compared to three A321s to a destination is nowhere close to justifying the huge environmental destruction that an enlarged Heathrow would cause.
 

lachlan

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Excellent service if you are coming from Central Scotland with the wonderful Lounges at Edinburgh and Glasgow added to those at Heathrow.

For those eligible The First Wing at T5 is also an excellent perk.

These days I just travel with a rucksack having been burnt numerous times awaiting luggage.

They should just get on and build the Third Runway as soon as possible.
No, we shouldn't be encouraging more air travel until we have proven sustainable means of flight. journeys from London to the central belt can be done by train or coach.
 

AlastairFraser

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Article Link: https://www.flightglobal.com/airlin...xpansion-options-under-new-ceo/155921.article

It's frustrating, Heathrow wants and needs a third runway, I would argue that they need a fourth runway, but the Government refuses to accept it, but neither would a Labour Government.
They don't need a 3rd or fourth runway. There is plenty of capacity at Southend and the terminals/maintenance facilities/runway can be upgraded for much, much less.
Move a lot of short haul low cost there from Gatwick and then shift a lot of BA short to medium haul there from Heathrow (excluding domestic connections.)
Now you have enough free slots!
 

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Move a lot of short haul low cost there from Gatwick and then shift a lot of BA short to medium haul there from Heathrow (excluding domestic connections.)
How does this help when over a third of customers at Heathrow are on connections?
 

AlastairFraser

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How does this help when over a third of customers at Heathrow are on connections?
Because BA runs a fair number of European flights from Heathrow, and the more valuable connections are on to long haul services not available from regional airports.
 

Mojo

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Because BA runs a fair number of European flights from Heathrow, and the more valuable connections are on to long haul services not available from regional airports.
But are you not suggesting that the short haul BA routes are moved to Gatwick, meaning that customers will no longer be effectively able to connect at Heathrow? Most connections at Heathrow are international, primarily from European destinations to the US.
 
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