Greater Manchester Bus Franchising Assessment

[HSTEd]

That's fine as long as it avoids the stupidity of having to enforce change at some ridiculous point or making people have to walk inordinate distances.

Forced changes are to a large degree counterproductive, but we should not have people who change subsidise artificially cheap fares for people who want to avoid changing modes.

People sitting on a bus all the way costs the system money as bus capacity is more expensive to provide than tram capacity

 

[nerd]

That clogs up local buses though, and gets in the way of people making local journeys.

The marginal cost of a passenger on a tram is much lower than the marginal cost on a bus - so we should encourage people to use our bulk people transport system as it reduces our overall costs

In theory perhaps. In practice, flat rate single bus fares are widely implemented in bus systems with a single dominant operator - Edinburgh, Reading and Nottingham being examples - and generally work well, specifically because longer distance travellers make up such a small proportion of stopping bus ridership. While it might appear to be the case that short-distance travellers are subsidising longer distance travellers, in practice. the latter are so few that the consequent economic distortion is minimal. The gains due to simplicity of ticketing systems and a clear branding identity outweigh any potential economic inefficiencies.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Forced changes are to a large degree counterproductive, but we should not have people who change subsidise artificially cheap fares for people who want to avoid changing modes.

People sitting on a bus all the way costs the system money as bus capacity is more expensive to provide than tram capacity

If there is a faster alternative, people will generally take it. The silliness that could see the X50 go from Trafford Park and then people forcibly decanted onto a Metrolink at Old Trafford is that sort of lunacy. If you think it couldn't happen, that was one of the bad points (among the very good aspects as a whole) for the T&W Metro.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Forced changes are to a large degree counterproductive, but we should not have people who change subsidise artificially cheap fares for people who want to avoid changing modes.

People sitting on a bus all the way costs the system money as bus capacity is more expensive to provide than tram capacity

German Verbuende recognise this by providing direct limited stop routes at a premium fare supplement, known as Schnellbusse.

 

[Dentonian]

In general; yes. But I agree with edwin_m that there may be a case for a flat-rate single bus fare as an addition; stopping buses only with no restrictions on distance. Without any entitlement to cross-modal travel, but maybe a 'hopper' functionality limited by time. In effect the current deregulated market serves regular, non-connecting, stopping bus users to the exclusion of anyone else; and there is a likelihood that these users may feel themselves with little benefit in a post-deregulated system (franchised or not). We know that the current operators can run services economically within GM applying a flate-rate £1.50 fare (as they readily do so on those rare routes where they compete). I see a good case for allowing this to continue as a general policy - so a single stopping bus trip into town from Didsbury would continue to cost less than the equivalent (and much faster) tram, train or BRT trip.

I would absolutely agree with this. The proof of the iniquity of deregulation is epitomised by the Stagecoach 38 route, where it is still £1.50 to travel 5 or 6 miles into Manchester. Yet, my nearest Supermarket is just 1.2 miles from my nearest bus stop, and they are now charging £2.50 single! I confess I've never seen a 38 at peak times, but I rode on the competing 36 through Swinton and Walkden one (dry) mid-morning a few months ago. Watching the convoy of 36, 37 & 38s heading into Manchester, I don't think more than one or two had double-figures on board. Surely, that isn't sustainable commercially, which begs the question are the books being, shall we say "simmered"? Buses are used for essential journeys, mostly by people without a practical alternative. Apart from those commuting into the city, most passengers are traveling 1-3 miles to access (lower paid) jobs, decent shops and Primary/Secondary health services. Given motoring costs of 18ppm (recent AA estimate for a small car; iirc it was 14p fuel & 4p oil/tyres and mileage related depreciation), surely £1.50 single can be justified up to 3 miles if not further; At today's prices - even £2 & £3 return) would be a notable improvement for journeys up to 5 miles. That would cover most essential journeys not involving the city centre - ie. areas where parking is general free - and it would still be considerably more expensive than petrol/diesel.

 

[nerd]

I would absolutely agree with this. The proof of the iniquity of deregulation is epitomised by the Stagecoach 38 route, where it is still £1.50 to travel 5 or 6 miles into Manchester. Yet, my nearest Supermarket is just 1.2 miles from my nearest bus stop, and they are now charging £2.50 single! I confess I've never seen a 38 at peak times, but I rode on the competing 36 through Swinton and Walkden one (dry) mid-morning a few months ago. Watching the convoy of 36, 37 & 38s heading into Manchester, I don't think more than one or two had double-figures on board. Surely, that isn't sustainable commercially, which begs the question are the books being, shall we say "simmered"? Buses are used for essential journeys, mostly by people without a practical alternative. Apart from those commuting into the city, most passengers are traveling 1-3 miles to access (lower paid) jobs, decent shops and Primary/Secondary health services. Given motoring costs of 18ppm (recent AA estimate for a small car; iirc it was 14p fuel & 4p oil/tyres and mileage related depreciation), surely £1.50 single can be justified up to 3 miles if not further; At today's prices - even £2 & £3 return) would be a notable improvement for journeys up to 5 miles. That would cover most essential journeys not involving the city centre - ie. areas where parking is general free - and it would still be considerably more expensive than petrol/diesel.

Current single fares in GM - outside of favoured routes where operators compete with one another - are classic instances of monopolistic 'predatory pricing'. There is would be no economic basis in a free market for such high single fare levels; they are only there to push the regular bus users into purchasing the operators' exclusive weekly rider tickets; which typically are priced somewhere under £15 (so for a regular weekday rider, £3 per day or £.50 per peak period trip). The function of predatory pricing - as here - is to constrain growth in ridership numbers along a route, so as to inhibit market entry by competitors. So long as the regular weekday riders are tied to one operator, there is insufficient 'spare' business accessible for a rival operator to run the route; even though large numbers of irregular users are being effectively priced out of access to local transport. In addition, by penalising cross-operator and cross-mode connections, predatory pricing constrains overall growth in public transport use across the transport system. Moreover, in that weekly rider ticket holders are characteristically unwilling to spend extra money on other bus operators' fares; journey speeds are increased (as passengers don't catch the firs bus that comes along), which also increases congestion around bus stops.

Which makes the case for franchising; in that there the key feature is that fare income and operator compensation are decoupled. Currently the operator collects fares from passengers, and uses this to compensate their provision of services, In franchising, all fare income is collected by the franchising authority; who then negotiate operator compensation on a route-by-route basis. For high demand corridors, this compensation per passenger may tend to be considerably less than than the fare paid, hence cross-subsidising lower demand corridors.

In those circumstances, for stopping bus services, flat-rate single tickets make a lot of economic sense - since as you say, riders overwhelmingly are only on stopping bus for short distances. But if the same flat are structure is adopted for trams (and likely I suspect too for BRT) then their typically much longer average trip length results in fare income being unable to cover operating costs. Which is exactly what we see curretnly in Croydon Tramlink. Hence, so long as rapid transit is expected to pay its way without subsidy, the longer trips have to attract higher fares. Within a local system, this may mean fudging the general principle of interoperability of public transport fares across the whole system in respect of single fares. As for example in Edinburgh, where trams and buses share a common fare structure; but one which excludes the furthest stop on the tram system (the airport). Such fudges create embarrassing localised unfairness (why should tram riders pay so much more to travel between two particular stops on the Edinburgh system, when others don't for any other two stops?). But overall, such a fudge may well be needed in Manchester too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One option there is that there remains a single journey bus only fare, but then all other intra PTE fares include free bus travel at both ends. I advocate that model for London.

 

[edwin_m]

One option there is that there remains a single journey bus only fare, but then all other intra PTE fares include free bus travel at both ends. I advocate that model for London.

I think that is essential (why should those passengers be charged extra as well as having the inconvenience of a change?) and included it in my previous post. However it does create a difficulty that some people boarding a local bus will be on the first leg of a complex zonal journey that will inevitably take longer to sell than a simple flat fare. Possibly the answer is for that passenger to buy the flat fare and be entitled to a cheaper fare when paying at the interchange (to be enforced by keeping the bus ticket for possible inspection on the later journey).

But it's a bit cumbersome and open to misunderstanding and abuse, so it may only be practicable to offer this for people using contactless or smartcards.

 

[edwin_m]

German Verbuende recognise this by providing direct limited stop routes at a premium fare supplement, known as Schnellbusse.

These could form part of the mix in Manchester too, on the corridors where there was no Metrolink or train, and would use my suggested longer-distance zonal system instead of a flat fare like other buses. They would need some level of bus priority according to how congested the route was, up to and including a full BRT if necessary.

 

[edwin_m]

If there is a faster alternative, people will generally take it. The silliness that could see the X50 go from Trafford Park and then people forcibly decanted onto a Metrolink at Old Trafford is that sort of lunacy. If you think it couldn't happen, that was one of the bad points (among the very good aspects as a whole) for the T&W Metro.

That issue was largely around terminating buses at Gateshead, within sight of most people's destination in Newcastle (because both are on hills, not because it's a short walk between them!). With Metro being underground there the interchange was a bit tedious and certainly not worth it for the long journey - I imagine if deregulation had happened there might by now have been a Metro branch to Metrocentre or Team Valley with an interchange further out to give a real journey time saving. I was a commuter from Jesmond to Killingworth during the brief era of integration. Although interchange at Four Lane Ends was generally the quickest route the 63 and 64 (?) Killingworth circulars did continue into Newcastle via High Heaton, providing links that Metro didn't. There were also United buses in T&W livery providing through journeys via Gosforth and the Great North Road. Plus, like many areas, it had a strange route (the 351 Dudley Circular) which went almost everywhere but took an eternity to do so.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But it's a bit cumbersome and open to misunderstanding and abuse, so it may only be practicable to offer this for people using contactless or smartcards.

That probably makes most sense - on board purchase needs heavy disincentives.

 

[Dentonian]

That probably makes most sense - on board purchase needs heavy disincentives.

Spectre, Meltdown, Internet banking fraud, Cyber crime/terrorism....................

How about heavy disinvcentives for people parking on bus stops; Operators badly scheduling services (too slack at he start of a journey & too tight at the end); Roadworks contractors who insist on working during school terms only; Roadworks contractors who flout permits restricting lane closures/periods; Speeding/drugged up/mobile addicted motorists who cause accidents and "CSI" road closures; LAs (as in the individuals making the decisions) who change School hours to not only increase the peak (esp. evening) but increase poverty by restricting working hours for single parents who can't afford child care?
No, just hit the politically weakest and non "populist" as usual.

Now, where is there a shop open near my bus stop at 0930 on a Sunday, so that I can buy a ticket for a bus that might come within 10 minutes of its registered time, and it might not?....................

 

[HSTEd]

I think what we need is a simple Zonal System, and then abolish on-board purchase of tickets across all modes.
The same journey should cost the same no matter what method or route is taken - otherwise we risk distorting traffic onto the cheapest route, forcing capacity addition on that route whilst carting fresh air around on the alternatives.

Since noone over 60 requires a ticket anyway, the argument of the little old lady that can't use a smart phone needing a huge ticketing infrastructure probably falls rather flat.
Then the choice is between Oyster style tap-in-and-out, and a prepaid ticket model.

 

[Robertj21a]

I think what we need is a simple Zonal System, and then abolish on-board purchase of tickets across all modes.
The same journey should cost the same no matter what method or route is taken - otherwise we risk distorting traffic onto the cheapest route, forcing capacity addition on that route whilst carting fresh air around on the alternatives.

Since noone over 60 requires a ticket anyway, the argument of the little old lady that can't use a smart phone needing a huge ticketing infrastructure probably falls rather flat.
Then the choice is between Oyster style tap-in-and-out, and a prepaid ticket model.

It's no longer from 60 surely ? - and people from Scotland/Wales/Ireland/abroad still need to pay!

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, just hit the politically weakest and non "populist" as usual.

No. Once again it ALL needs dealing with.

Buses need to spend no more than 15-30 seconds at each stop unless a wheelchair passenger requires assistance. They also need the roads setting up so at all other times they are either travelling at the maximum safe speed for the road or undertaking a manoeuvre.

That's how it is in Germany, and it's great.

 

[edwin_m]

With most people needing a bank account to receive pay/benefits, and "basic" accounts available which don't offer credit to those who aren't trusted with it or just don't want it, how many adults really can't have access to contactless these days? More difficult for children I agree.

 

[Dentonian]

With most people needing a bank account to receive pay/benefits, and "basic" accounts available which don't offer credit to those who aren't trusted with it or just don't want it, how many adults really can't have access to contactless these days? More difficult for children I agree.

I honestly don't know how Contactless works, and as I think I said on this forum a few days ago, it seems many people much younger than me haven't heard of it either. If you mean traditional bank accounts, much less open to fraud than the internet, then OK, this might work. However, more and more banks are closing branches down or at least reducing hours. My former bank now only opens three days a week, between 0930 & 1600, so its obviously useless for full time workers.

 

[Dentonian]

No. Once again it ALL needs dealing with.

Buses need to spend no more than 15-30 seconds at each stop unless a wheelchair passenger requires assistance. They also need the roads setting up so at all other times they are either travelling at the maximum safe speed for the road or undertaking a manoeuvre.

That's how it is in Germany, and it's great.

As I said before, they don't usually spend more than this amount of time at bus stops, other than major town centres, now. The biggest delays are getting out of bus stops (and sometimes getting in/on to bus stops, and poor traffic light phasing. And there is still more hat can be done to reduce transaction time anyway, and tbf at least Stagecoach MegaRiders going to £15 is a nice round figure. I never understood why Stagecoach and First started accepting £20 notes again after it stopped years ago under Police advice (fraud).

 

[Dentonian]

It's no longer from 60 surely ? - and people from Scotland/Wales/Ireland/abroad still need to pay!

Correct, it is currently about 63-64 and will increase in stages until it reaches State Retirement Age, which will be 68 by 2026.

Also, "Pensioners" in GM pay full fare on buses up to 0930 on weekdays.

 

[Stan Drews]

I honestly don't know how Contactless works, and as I think I said on this forum a few days ago, it seems many people much younger than me haven't heard of it either. If you mean traditional bank accounts, much less open to fraud than the internet, then OK, this might work. However, more and more banks are closing branches down or at least reducing hours. My former bank now only opens three days a week, between 0930 & 1600, so its obviously useless for full time workers.

Most current account bank (debit) cards now incorporate "contactless" technology, so you effectively just tap the card on the terminal, and payment is deducted automatically without the need for a PIN to be entered to authorise the transaction.
In London there is now no need for visitors to acquire an Oyster card, as you can simply use your contactless debit card to tap in and out, and the same amount will be deducted for the journeys you make, as if you were using an Oyster card.

 

[radamfi]

I honestly don't know how Contactless works, and as I think I said on this forum a few days ago, it seems many people much younger than me haven't heard of it either. If you mean traditional bank accounts, much less open to fraud than the internet, then OK, this might work. However, more and more banks are closing branches down or at least reducing hours. My former bank now only opens three days a week, between 0930 & 1600, so its obviously useless for full time workers.

What is there to know? You just touch the card onto the reader, just like a smartcard. "Bank accounts" were mentioned because you need one to have a contactless bank card. In London, the vast majority of bus users use Oyster or contactless. A lot of people now find contactless more convenient than Oyster so some Oyster users have converted to contactless. But as far as I know, no one is suggesting that contactless is going to become the only payment method available. Smartcards are a more universal option as everyone can have one. Greater Manchester already has a smartcard called "getmethere". All that needs to happen is for top-ups to be available off bus like Oyster. London buses have gone cashless since 2014 and works fine. Greater Mancunians wouldn't be any more inconvenienced by a similar set up on its buses.

 

[Dentonian]

What is there to know? You just touch the card onto the reader, just like a smartcard. "Bank accounts" were mentioned because you need one to have a contactless bank card. In London, the vast majority of bus users use Oyster or contactless. A lot of people now find contactless more convenient than Oyster so some Oyster users have converted to contactless. But as far as I know, no one is suggesting that contactless is going to become the only payment method available. Smartcards are a more universal option as everyone can have one. Greater Manchester already has a smartcard called "getmethere". All that needs to happen is for top-ups to be available off bus like Oyster. London buses have gone cashless since 2014 and works fine. Greater Mancunians wouldn't be any more inconvenienced by a similar set up on its buses.

Now we are getting somewhere. I'm pretty sure my current Debit Card doesn't have a "Contactless" option, but it expires later this year. More generally, my bank (and I assume most others) renew them every 3 years, and that would predate Cashless in practice. Presumably, Smartcards can be topped up at a wide variety of locations, so provided they don't expire quickly (like fresh fruit), that too would seem universally acceptable. Certainly, far better than m-tickets. Apart from the threats and obstacles I mentioned, the more mundane problems would include lack of wi-fi connection on the bus and "insufficient data" on the phone. Mine gets all sorts of unwanted apps like "Drive", GooglePlay and Motorola visited upon it, and if you remove them, they just re appear interfering with the apps you do use and internet access.

 

[radamfi]

Now we are getting somewhere. I'm pretty sure my current Debit Card doesn't have a "Contactless" option, but it expires later this year. More generally, my bank (and I assume most others) renew them every 3 years, and that would predate Cashless in practice. Presumably, Smartcards can be topped up at a wide variety of locations, so provided they don't expire quickly (like fresh fruit), that too would seem universally acceptable. Certainly, far better than m-tickets. Apart from the threats and obstacles I mentioned, the more mundane problems would include lack of wi-fi connection on the bus and "insufficient data" on the phone. Mine gets all sorts of unwanted apps like "Drive", GooglePlay and Motorola visited upon it, and if you remove them, they just re appear interfering with the apps you do use and internet access.

There are several thousand Oyster top up locations in Greater London, plus a few in surrounding areas. But if you arrange for your Oyster card to be automatically topped up from your bank account whenever the balance drops below a certain level, you don't need to visit a shop ever again, or at least until TfL decide that old cards must be replaced, which they haven't done as yet. I don't know of any place where m-tickets are the only payment method. London doesn't even use m-tickets, because of the need for people to pass through ticket gates at high speed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I honestly don't know how Contactless works

Rather than showing off, why not Google it and find out about the benefits?

 

[HSTEd]

Contactless just means that if someone nicks your wallet, they will likely be able to get a couple hundred quid off you in a few minutes.
By the time you react or the automatic protection kicks in they could have used the card a half dozen times at £30 a time.

I wonder how bad the legal fight over what transactions were fraudulent would be......


But either way - how about a flat fare for public transport journeys in a single borough, and then a second higher rate for journeys in more than one borough?

 

[duncombec]

Buses need to spend no more than 15-30 seconds at each stop unless a wheelchair passenger requires assistance. They also need the roads setting up so at all other times they are either travelling at the maximum safe speed for the road or undertaking a manoeuvre.

That's how it is in Germany, and it's great.

No, No and No again. It really isn't. That is how it is in *some parts* of Germany, usually large cities with Verkehrsverbunde. In my small market town (population: 29,000) lots of people used to pay the driver, and it could easily take minutes to clear the queue on a Monday morning peak with people buying 10 journey tickets, singles, day tickets, etc. That was with one fare for each category and drivers having properly sorted change (rather than having to root around for it in one large tray), and a "pass left" system, in which passholders had a separate queue. For good measure, the buses all met at the bus station, but each conveniently timed to miss any possible train connection, which was a good 3-4 minute walk away.

 

[radamfi]

No, No and No again. It really isn't. That is how it is in *some parts* of Germany, usually large cities with Verkehrsverbunde.

And we're talking about GM here, 2+ million conurbation, so a big city Verkehrsverbund is what is comparable. The map below shows that the vast majority of significant urban areas are covered by such organisations.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/Karte_der_Verkehrsverbünde_und_Tarifverbünde_in_Deutschland.png

Just because things aren't that great in some places, doesn't mean that you have to jettison the concepts that work in many other places. No one seriously expect public transport to be a serious player in rural areas. Large towns and big cities are where we expect public transport to be efficient and well used.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, No and No again. It really isn't. That is how it is in *some parts* of Germany, usually large cities with Verkehrsverbunde.

With which Manchester is comparable. I don't have experience with the German rural setup, but it is not really relevant to a discussion on franchising in urban Greater Manchester, being the third largest city (if you class it as one) in the UK.

 

[duncombec]

With which Manchester is comparable. I don't have experience with the German rural setup, but it is not really relevant to a discussion on franchising in urban Greater Manchester, being the third largest city (if you class it as one) in the UK.

Granted, the size of the locations are comparable. My main source of ire was the ongoing allegation that everything in Germany (or Switzerland, or The Netherlands) is great, and everything we do over here is bad.

As I pointed out on the NYD thread, even Verkehrsverbünde have their limitations. Interestingly, it is noticeable from the map on Ramamfi's post just how many varieties of Verkehrsverbund there are. 'Only' the yellow areas are those we all rave about. The grey areas have no rail integration. The blue areas go no further than timetable co-ordination (although some, like Schleswig-Holstein, have a tariff across the whole area, although the map is incorrect in that this links both Nah.Sh and HVV areas. Most interesting for me is the blue and yellow shaded area around Frankfurt (RMV), where the overall Verbund has rail integration, but the co-ordination of the bus timetables is undertaken by the individual regions! That is the equivalent of TfGM being responsible for the fares, but the borough councils each being responsible for timetables and route planning within their own area.

I firmly believe there is a place for cash on the bus, and it can be sped up drastically. Publishing a fare table would be a good start. Not everybody will use them, but anything, even a "find your fare" tool, is better than the guesswork we have at present. Give the drivers a full float, so people don't scrabble around for change at the bottom of wallets and purses. Giving change for a fare of £2.90 when £3 is tendered is much easier than the customer trying to find £2.90 exact, or the driver changing £5. Sort the float into coin dispensing facilities. (The nearest I can come up with is this: https://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/MTA2NlgxNjAw/z/bgEAAOSwEZdaFv~o/$_1.JPG) The tray is even often positioned that the driver can start serving the next customer whilst the previous one is collecting their change. Introduce a "pass right" system: passholders should not be stuck in the same queue as farepayers. If security is an issue, use a QR scanner.

These are all "good" things we can import from abroad without the negatives of taking cash on board.

 

[Bletchleyite]

FWIW I would agree that the German style change dispensers, possibly even automatic ones, would be a good addition if cash was retained (notwithstanding that I still think it should not be). Some German supermarkets even have them - the coin change is automatically produced and put into a shaped tray for ease of picking up (the person still does the notes), and the tray is positioned to encourage the person to move along to allow the next customer to start being served.

Not dissimilar is the idea of having the ticket printer half a metre or so towards the stairs.