There's no assurance anywhere to suggest that AGA will go.
Should Abellio bid for the next franchise, there is nothing apart from the competition from other bidders that would stop them from winning the new franchise if they produced a good bid.
Hi - My point was: those focusing on getting rid of Abellio need to ensure *if* they go, whatever franchise *terms* replace them are better drafted. There is a focus on simply ditching Abellio at present, which detracts from the main problem.
I note that you and SPADTrap focus only on my final sentence. However, would you concede the problem lies primarily in the procurement process and the franchise terms / treasury, rather than the operator itself? For me, this point is demonstrated most clearly by Abellio being involved in the popular and reliable Merseyrail as well as the unpopular Greater Anglia.
Personally - it's my view that Abellio won't be allowed to win the contest, as it would be politically too dangerous to allow it - but: I am familiar with the OJEU process, etc, and appreciate that it all depends on the tender criteria.
In terms of having no influence - I'd suggest that DafT's consultation and the movement by MPs in the region suggests that's not necessarily the case. Coupled with the 'New Anglia' prospectus and other campaigns, hopefully there will be a chance that in 2016 things will be done properly - see for example:
http://www.newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Rail-prospectus-for-East-Anglia.pdf