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Grand Central Discussion

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Sir_Clagalot

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How many businesses make a profit in the first three years?
Bear in mind that it wasnt until LATE 2007 that trains ran in service, and all that happened last year... Could have been worse!
 
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monkey

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..did anyone watch that inside out program narrated by stephen merchant? quite interesting, and you had to feel for them, nothing went right for them starting up, but that is a humongous loss! although I'm guessing setting up a train company from scratch like an airline isn't easy or cheap, in fact looked harder, least you can just buy readymade plains, getting trains for them seemed to be a nightmare...
 

paul1609

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How many businesses make a profit in the first three years?
Bear in mind that it wasnt until LATE 2007 that trains ran in service, and all that happened last year... Could have been worse!

I wouldnt have ever expected GC to make a profit in the first 5 years but lets face it I've always been known as a GC sceptic on here. but tbh Sir C. the extent of the losses have even surprised me. £12million set up costs in the first 2 years? I'd kind of assumed that the GC business model worked because there were ORCATs payments that balanced the books but that doesnt appear to be so.
 

tbtc

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Good to hear the Sunderland service will be in profit at some stage (though it'll be longer until all the losses are paid off), but is it really wise to be launching the new route in such circumstances? (given it's not as lucrative)

ETA - whilst the start up costs will have been a bit, it's not like they've had to buy new trains or make any significant infrastructure improvements, plus they were getting a share of the York - London ORCTS money from day one
 
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Metroland

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Yep, most business don't make a profit for the first few years, in fact over half of business tend to fail in the first 3 years. The most risky sectors are restaurants, couriers, and haulage companies.

However £8 million loss isn't that bad considering start up capitalisation and the fact we are in recession. Grand central are running aprox 2160 trains per year (3 each way). Therefore the loss is aprox £3703 per train. *Simplistically* assuming the average fare is £50, they need 74 extra passengers per train to break even. By the sounds of it the average seat load factors are probably between 5 and 10% less than they should be (around 35-40%). The extra service may well push the passengers up enough to about break even (by attracting extra custom by making the service more convenient) assuming sensible cost control.
 

Sir_Clagalot

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Someone said a while back that for any train to break even it needs to have at least 40% of the seats filled...
 

Norwich

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Hi - I wonder if anyone can help me....

....does anyone know what traction is booked for the Saturday 1730 ex Sunderland GC service?

Many thanks...
 

monkey

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...I'm actually intrigued by this grand central malarchy, after watching that inside out documentary. and the new adelante's (or should I say zephyrs ;) ) look fab. only problem is it just seems far too unreliable atm, their seems to be too many anecdotal evidence about train failures or having to be transferred to nxec (which is something I guess) upto york.

also just reading up on the net, it seems ticket offices don't like sellling gc tickets when walking up to buy, as people are just told the v. expensive nxec ticket price, with no info on the gc alternative (even when its more direct for the customer), this can't legal/right can it? I mean you can even by gc tickets on the nationalexpresseastcoast.com website, so its not as if its only sold by selective outlets - and it does say you should be able to buy tickets from any rail ticket office...
 

paul1609

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Yep, most business don't make a profit for the first few years, in fact over half of business tend to fail in the first 3 years. The most risky sectors are restaurants, couriers, and haulage companies.

However £8 million loss isn't that bad considering start up capitalisation and the fact we are in recession. Grand central are running aprox 2160 trains per year (3 each way). Therefore the loss is aprox £3703 per train. *Simplistically* assuming the average fare is £50, they need 74 extra passengers per train to break even. By the sounds of it the average seat load factors are probably between 5 and 10% less than they should be (around 35-40%). The extra service may well push the passengers up enough to about break even (by attracting extra custom by making the service more convenient) assuming sensible cost control.

£8 m on its own probably wouldnt be that bad but when you add in the £4.4m from the previous year when they only ran about 10 days its be beginning to look a bit grim. I cant really see how the 4th train can make money if you are hiring a class 180 just for one return trip. How many HST sets do GC have now? Are they running 4 sets (3 x Hst + 1x 180) for 4 return trips?

Id guess that GC are probably much the same as WSMR in that they are generating no London to the regions traffic. So they probably have one reasonably loaded peak service to London and one return and loadings on the rest are pretty dire.
 

Royston Vasey

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£12m doesn't seem that much given to me all the one-off refurbishment and subsequent remedial work which had to be paid for, plus start-up costs, recruitment, marketing and the inevitable slow build-up in passenger numbers.

I've worked in young businesses, I work in one now, and initial losses are both acceptable and expected. Investors are concerned with growth and potential, the current year balance sheet is not as important as you might think. As Metroland says, no business makes a profit in its first year. The payback period for an SME is often 5 years or more.

It sounds like a lot of money but a train company is a serious operation. They are expanding into the West Yorkshire market and have expanded their current operations, not something you'd expect from a failing company. Wild guesses about the payback of an additional unit lease are both uninformed and unhelpful. They will have done the research and the sums and made their decision properly.

I'd worry more about WSMR, which curiously everyone on here regards as a great little company, but do the passenger numbers and service back it up? That is another story.

I do enjoy reading the finanical nous of trainspotters though, very entertaining! :lol:
 

williamn

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W&S though have the backing of DB - and not only do they have financial clout but I can't see them backing something they can't see potential in. Hoping to travel with them in the autumn* so will report back on numbers.

*only if the refurbed stock EVER arrives!
 

monkey

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W&S though have the backing of DB - and not only do they have financial clout but I can't see them backing something they can't see potential in. Hoping to travel with them in the autumn* so will report back on numbers.

*only if the refurbed stock EVER arrives!
^^so wait, ar W&S still using those intercity carriages? not their own liveried ones?
 

Royston Vasey

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W&S though have the backing of DB - and not only do they have financial clout but I can't see them backing something they can't see potential in.

That's true, a good point, they will also have certain costs which can benefit from economies of scale in the way GC could not.

But in some ways being a small part of a bigger company often leaves you exposed. I was once in a very big global company that sold off whole divisions purely because they were making only 10% return on assets whereas others were making 20%. They were healthy businesses, making profit and now having been sold off remain healthy. But because shareholder value is paramount to a plc, it looks like a sick child in comparison.
 

tbtc

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£12m doesn't seem that much given to me all the one-off refurbishment and subsequent remedial work which had to be paid for, plus start-up costs, recruitment, marketing and the inevitable slow build-up in passenger numbers

Bear in mind that there weren't the same capital costs as if htey'd *bought* new trains - they just aquired leases on some old HSTs and gave them a lick of paint - nothing like as costly.

Whilst I'm not as big a fan of WMSR as some on here, at least they've spent a few quid improving Wrexham station - Sunderland station doesn't look like it's had any improvement made for generations - it's not like GC have had these kind of costs either.

Plus, whilst the Sunderland/ Durham Cost traffic will take time to build GC have the benefit of a share of the lucrative York - London ORCATS "pot", meaning they would be getting some regular revenue (even if the Sunderland traffic took a long time to build up)
 

monkey

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Sunderland station doesn't look like it's had any improvement made for generations - it's not like GC have had these kind of costs either.
...yeah and what improvements are being made are being done by nexus the local pte who run the tyne and wear metro...

edit: oh and I think gc do own their hst sets. they had to totally gut them and rewire them and what not, was all filmed for inside out, with stephen merchant narrating...:D
 

monkey

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^^thats what I read anyway, sure gc fans will be able to say :D . only the 180's are hired, cos angel trains owns all of the 180's...
 

paul1609

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Bear in mind that there weren't the same capital costs as if htey'd *bought* new trains - they just aquired leases on some old HSTs and gave them a lick of paint - nothing like as costly.

Whilst I'm not as big a fan of WMSR as some on here, at least they've spent a few quid improving Wrexham station - Sunderland station doesn't look like it's had any improvement made for generations - it's not like GC have had these kind of costs either.

Plus, whilst the Sunderland/ Durham Cost traffic will take time to build GC have the benefit of a share of the lucrative York - London ORCATS "pot", meaning they would be getting some regular revenue (even if the Sunderland traffic took a long time to build up)

In the September Modern Railways NXEC say they are targeting extra advance tickets towards GC times and as a result they believe they are regaining market share from GC.
 

Sir_Clagalot

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The problem with NXEC targetting cheap AP fares at around our times is that Pax will get on ours with the wrong ticket. Ive seen it already, with someone having booked a journey SUN-KGX departing at 1230... on the Northern to NCL then NXEC to london with an NXEC & Connections ticket, yet they thought they had booked on the GC direct service. I can forsee a lot of arguments with passengers looming
 

andylloyd

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The problem with NXEC targetting cheap AP fares at around our times is that Pax will get on ours with the wrong ticket. Ive seen it already, with someone having booked a journey SUN-KGX departing at 1230... on the Northern to NCL then NXEC to london with an NXEC & Connections ticket, yet they thought they had booked on the GC direct service. I can forsee a lot of arguments with passengers looming

Well then,
maybes they should 'Pay Attention' then to the Specific GC T/Table then ;) That will stop the confusion!
 

monkey

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^^tbh, sometimes I just think people lack common sense. on the electronic boards, it has it clearly written which operator is operating that service, below the route, just reading it would stop the confusions - so I think if they have to pay again, its their own fault...
 

Pumbaa

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You're forgetting the golden rule though... the vast majority of punters are stupid. You should see the huge confusion at my local sometimes. There are two operators, one of which is one per hour, and the service is vastly different! Tickets are interchangeable yet the panic is unbelievable sometimes!
 

monkey

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^^and on the platform, at most large stations they have a COLOUR screen with the RELEVANT logo of the operator on too...
 

Pumbaa

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Well we still run to BR time a hell of a lot! ie at least 10 mins late!
 
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