Government to extend Emergency Measures Agreements

[YorksDMU]

Will the EMA extension mean we keep a vastly reduced timetable, or will we get a full timetable restored, with all the TOCs, by September? I hope, at the very least, it will be the latter, or passengers will not be returning to the railway anytime soon in big numbers.

 

[Domh245]

Operators are being pushed to operate a full timetable, so I think it's almost certain that it'll be a full timetable (or near enough) - the EMAs being extended for 18 months indicate that passenger numbers aren't anticipated to be back to normal for 18 months

 

[YorksDMU]

Operators are being pushed to operate a full timetable, so I think it's almost certain that it'll be a full timetable (or near enough) - the EMAs being extended for 18 months indicate that passenger numbers aren't anticipated to be back to normal for 18 months

Thank you, let’s hope that it will be near enough a full timetable, and that passenger numbers can, eventually, improve.

 

[Non Multi]

Agreed. Just needs some leisure fares offers, Railcard offers, that sort of thing to get it all going again when the time is right.

Will need a much bigger push than that to persuade many that it's actually safe to travel again.

 

[Starmill]

Perfect time for a National Railcard. How about £30 as a special for the first year, then step it up to something more realistic (as I've said before I'd pay £10/month by direct debit or thereabouts).

Having taken a masked journey yesterday I doubt I'll do many until that gets dropped as it's not at all comfortable[1], but once it is I'll be back.

[1] I could technically claim an exemption, being asthmatic, but I don't think it would be right to do so as the reason would just be discomfort, not breathing issues.

I imagine that a trial year during this period would have cost risk at significantly less than the government's 50% restraunt discount is forecast to - £500 million.

You'd announce a price and then offer discounts to buy them this summer, as you hint at.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

At least they are not letting the railways go broke.

It looks as though the TOCs will be reclassified as "public sector" for ONS purposes if the EMAs continue indefinitely with their bottomless subsidies.

ONS reviews sector classification of Train Operating Companies

UK: The Office for National Statistics is assessing whether the government’s Emergency Measures Agreements mean Train Operating Companies’ debts should be included on the national balance sheet. The result of the review of the sector classification of TOCs will be announced as soon as possible...

www.railwaygazette.com

The Office for National Statistics is assessing whether the government’s Emergency Measures Agreements mean Train Operating Companies’ debts should be included on the national balance sheet.
The result of the review of the sector classification of TOCs will be announced as soon as possible, ONS said on July 9.

The RMT helpfully gave the DfT this nudge to fully nationalise the lot:

Mick Lynch, Senior Assistant General Secretary of the pro-nationalisation RMT trade union, said ‘rather than risking the chaos of further franchise collapses, and with the taxpayer already paying for services, underwriting debt and wasting cash underpinning private operators profits, there has never been a better opportunity to ditch the fragmentation and waste of franchising and bring the railway officially into full public ownership.’

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The RMT helpfully gave the DfT "a" nudge to fully nationalise the lot:

I reworded to save quoting hope you dont mind but surely the RMT cant mean the ROSCOs also?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I think we are only talking TOCs here (which is where the bulk of the RMT membership is).
The ROSCOs are firmly in the private sector, and so are an increasing number of ex-TOC employees who find themselves working on rolling stock maintenance for manufacturers like Hitachi and Stadler instead of their former TOCs.
I've never seen any union criticism of those arrangements, unlike the franchised TOCs.
Maybe that's because they have a higher degree of permanence (the lifetime of the fleet) than a time-limited franchisee.

 

[trebor79]

Whilst running a fall service may seem a folly i guess the only costs being avoided currently would be energy/fuel costs as lease costs are fixed and avoiding NR variable costs will only created a deficit in NR's books that would need to be covered. So short a fundamental rehash of whats the railway is here for and right sizing resources to match its difficult to reduce current costs much so most important task needs to be restoring confidence to get numbers up again by removing the essential travel only mantra and adopting 1m plus rule and lowering fares in the off peak.

Leisure travel is where the growth in numbers is going to have to come from. The trains the last few weeks are now busier at the weekend than weekday rush hour, from what I've seen working trains around Piccadilly in Manchester.
The commuter market is not going to be the same for a very long time, and leisure is going to be the key source of income for the foreseeable

I wonder, if passenger demand isn't going to return, whether there might be a more fundamental change.
Could we see more container terminals and bulk freight facilities to see freight off road and onto rail?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I wonder, if passenger demand isn't going to return, whether there might be a more fundamental change.
Could we see more container terminals and bulk freight facilities to see freight off road and onto rail?

I think people have been fervently hoping for that for many years - so while passenger demand may fall for a while (or longer) , you have to balance the hard economics of the flexible road haulage industry and the associated infrastructure and modus operandi concerned with that particular means of transport. Very complex.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think we are only talking TOCs here (which is where the bulk of the RMT membership is).
The ROSCOs are firmly in the private sector, and so are an increasing number of ex-TOC employees who find themselves working on rolling stock maintenance for manufacturers like Hitachi and Stadler instead of their former TOCs.
I've never seen any union criticism of those arrangements, unlike the franchised TOCs.
Maybe that's because they have a higher degree of permanence (the lifetime of the fleet) than a time-limited franchisee.

That makes sense. I had not thought of it that way.

 

[furlong]

Having taken a masked journey yesterday I doubt I'll do many until that gets dropped as it's not at all comfortable[1], but once it is I'll be back.

We'll see how long it takes for the industry to realise the scale of the calamity that it is facing - and the true meaning of being "customer focussed". Despite appearances, in some ways the government seems to be acting against the long-term interests of the industry at the moment - instead of parrotting counter-productive "essential travel only" and "masks make travel safer" messages, the train companies should be listening to their previously-loyal passengers and putting their long-term survival front-and-foremost and opposing the government in public now, arguing that the cleaning-related measures they've taken mean trains are safe enough to use again despite what the government is implying, that most people don't need "social distancing" on trains or to wear useless "face coverings" as a placebo but that those who choose to will be fully provided for with special carriages and that most carriages are mostly empty at the moment anyway etc. The RDG should realise that the time has come for it to assert its independence, and start running promotions tailored to the different segments of society and opinion to attract people back now - not in 18 months' times. The industry should take the initiative and already be developing new lean timetables that reflect the new reality with the ability to replan in days in response to demand fluctuations instead of the months the current systems take. Recognise that the old timetables are toast, as is the underpinning of the old fares system - season ticket numbers and business travel have fallen of a cliff and won't be returning any time soon. The railway needs some imagination - humorous campaigns to encourage nostalgia for working in an office again to put pressure on employers to encourage commuters to return, smartcards with discounts that build up the more you use them in lieu of seasons to encourage people into the office more days each week than seems likely for the forseeable future, "train miles" style rewards that accrue to the traveller to encourage employees to make expensed business trips again, prize draw entries if you use station retail (whether or not you're travelling) etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

For the record I don't believe masks are a placebo, I believe they are necessary. It's not about me, it's about keeping R below 1 in the country as a whole. That is unfortunate as it makes public transport unattractive, but I don't see what the alternative is.

 

[furlong]

For the record I don't believe masks are a placebo, I believe they are necessary. It's not about me, it's about keeping R below 1 in the country as a whole. That is unfortunate as it makes public transport unattractive, but I don't see what the alternative is.

The alternative is to let people make up their own minds, and where society is so stridently divided on the issue, have separate carriages for those who want everyone to be distanced and weaing them, and other carriages for those who realise their uselessness and counter-productiveness. We did that for smoking, and for people who wanted quietness. No reason we can't do the same for masks so everyone can be happy and the railway can accept fares revenue from both sets of people simultaneously.

But back to the topic, nationalisation seems a given now, and once the dust settles, we're looking at undoing decades of growth, with severe cuts accompanied by higher fares across the board once the modicum of competition there used to be is all gone and the penny-pinching "Whitehall knows best" Treasury regains complete control.

 

[AdamWW]

The alternative is to let people make up their own minds, and where society is so stridently divided on the issue, have separate carriages for those who want everyone to be distanced and weaing them, and other carriages for those who realise their uselessness and counter-productiveness. We did that for smoking, and for people who wanted quietness. No reason we can't do the same for masks so everyone can be happy and the railway can accept fares revenue from both sets of people simultaneously.

Because that's missing the point.

The face coverings aren't there to protect other people in the carriage from the small risk they are sharing it with someone infections.
They are there to protect the country from cases increasing exponentially again.
Maybe face covering's don't do that. Maybe they do but the benefit doesn't outweigh the costs.
That's a different matter though.

But back to the topic, nationalisation seems a given now, and once the dust settles, we're looking at undoing decades of growth, with severe cuts accompanied by higher fares across the board once the modicum of competition there used to be is all gone and the penny-pinching "Whitehall knows best" Treasury regains complete control.

I'm not saying that fare rises won't come.
But if they do I find it hard to see why it will be because of the small amount of competition we currently have being removed.

And is there much investment left on the railways that isn't heavily controlled by the Treasury already?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

We'll see how long it takes for the industry to realise the scale of the calamity that it is facing - and the true meaning of being "customer focussed".

Recognise that the old timetables are toast, as is the underpinning of the old fares system - season ticket numbers and business travel have fallen of a cliff and won't be returning any time soon.

Spot on the industry needs to recognise this a pivotal moment and the treasury largess wont last beyond six months. If the new norm is substantially reduced ridership then resources will need to rejigged to match what demand there is and i suspect the revised EMAs will be more tactical based on new normal. Also your absolutely correct that the industry needs to become more responsive to quicker rejigging of the timetable. Lets be honest the industry can do this when service is disrupted but its built up a plethora of processes and lengthy reviews designed to ensure PPM is achieved and schedule 8 is minimised. Both these need removing immediately so they don't impede a dynamic response. Its also being suggested certain routes are suffering overloading vs social distancing restrictions and Shapps should be directing industry to get any such trains strengthened even if its at the expense of off peak services to find stock. Furthermore we have enough trains in store that should be deployed in support of this and PRM compliance needs to be waived in the short term.

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder to please not stray too far off topic; we do have other threads to discuss matters such as how to encourage people back on public transport.

If anyone wishes to discuss anything else for which is there is not already a topic, feel free to create one

 

[furlong]

Telegraph article
A slump in passenger numbers has left the rail industry bracing for full nationalisation

The rail industry is bracing for full nationalisation as private forecasts show passenger numbers will not return to pre-pandemic levels for at least five years.
...
Boris Johnson’s administration plans to slash the current subsidies as soon as September.

 

[furlong]

But if they do I find it hard to see why it will be because of the small amount of competition we currently have being removed.

(Those words about competition were meant to qualify "across the board".)

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Telegraph article
A slump in passenger numbers has left the rail industry bracing for full nationalisation

One of Thameslink's senior managers tweeted this afternoon that their passenger numbers ( measured by gateline entries ) were already back up to 22% of the pre-virus levels, and up 18% on last week. That matches my observations today where I saw, at London Bridge, a southbound 8 car 700 with about 30 people in each carriage, followed ten minutes later by a 12 car one with about 20 - 25 per carriage, apart from the rear two or three that were much emptier.

This was late morning, approaching mid-day, when most of the day trippers would have already more or less got to wherever they were going.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

One of Thameslink's senior managers tweeted this afternoon that their passenger numbers ( measured by gateline entries ) were already back up to 22% of the pre-virus levels, and up 18% on last week. That matches my observations today where I saw, at London Bridge, a southbound 8 car 700 with about 30 people in each carriage, followed ten minutes later by a 12 car one with about 20 - 25 per carriage, apart from the rear two or three that were much emptier.

This was late morning, approaching mid-day, when most of the day trippers would have already more or less got to wherever they were going.

I didn't see anywhere like these numbers on my Thameslink trips last mid-week although there was a noticeable increase in people on the stations compared to four weeks ago when i was the only person getting off at Farringdon and had the whole of the NR ticket hall to myself. Good to see weekend traffic is picking up as that is probably a key market now as companies don't want there office staff back currently so the rush hour won't exist anytime soon although even pre Covid it was rare to get an excessively loaded Thameslink train in the rush hour unless there was service perturbation. Other routes with restricted train lengths will be challenged more aka Chiltern i suspect as they don't have the luxury of the capacity that Thameslink can provide all day long.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I didn't see anywhere like these numbers on my Thameslink trips last mid-week although there was a noticeable increase in people on the stations compared to four weeks ago when i was the only person getting off at Farringdon and had the whole of the NR ticket hall to myself. Good to see weekend traffic is picking up as that is probably a key market now as companies don't want there office staff back currently so the rush hour won't exist anytime soon although even pre Covid it was rare to get an excessively loaded Thameslink train in the rush hour unless there was service perturbation. Other routes with restricted train lengths will be challenged more aka Chiltern i suspect as they don't have the luxury of the capacity that Thameslink can provide all day long.

As a straw poll from St Albans - the commuting world seems to have changed for ever. One of my family has been told she will never go back to more than 3 days a week in the London office , (2 days at home) , other "workers" consulted say much the same - ranging from 1 day a week to 2 , - or even "never" , and you can bet some of these trips will not be the 07xx to London , but at varying times during the day. So you can expect maybe a 30 to 40% peak load in future. This will have major implications on the cost base going forward.

One good thing is that the 700's (which have hardly been proved in "hard" crushed service under normal commuting (i.e not much disruption) have good social distancing areas internally.

Interesting to see how Crossrail services pan out , as and when it starts full operation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As a straw poll from St Albans - the commuting world seems to have changed for ever. One of my family has been told she will never go back to more than 3 days a week in the London office , (2 days at home) , other "workers" consulted say much the same - ranging from 1 day a week to 2 , - or even "never" , and you can bet some of these trips will not be the 07xx to London , but at varying times during the day. So you can expect maybe a 30 to 40% peak load in future. This will have major implications on the cost base going forward.

Indeed so - it will make the railway massively cheaper to operate, being able to just operate an all-day Saturday style service. Providing for the South East commuter peak is incredibly expensive as you have stock and staff you don't need other than for a short period from about 7-9am and 4-7pm.

Rather than the complex insertion of various peak extras and tweaking, the most you'd need would be what you tend to get on the likes of Merseyrail - a couple of key peak trains extended from 8 to 12-car in each direction (or in Thameslink's case, diagramming the 12-cars to be in the right place at the right time), and possibly not even that. Or on LNR you'd be looking at there being maybe 4 or 5 units sat on Camden Bank all day, not far more than that as do at present, and the 319s have probably turned their last wheel.

There would be a bit of a loss of income from high Anytime fares, but unlike IC routes hardly anyone pays those, peak travellers mostly use seasons, and per day a monthly or longer season is more at Super Off Peak or Off Peak price levels on most routes. So such losses would be relatively low, and I suspect the cost base reduction from not having to operate peak extras would by far outweigh that loss.

 

[Bikeman78]

As a straw poll from St Albans - the commuting world seems to have changed for ever. One of my family has been told she will never go back to more than 3 days a week in the London office , (2 days at home) , other "workers" consulted say much the same - ranging from 1 day a week to 2 , - or even "never" , and you can bet some of these trips will not be the 07xx to London , but at varying times during the day. So you can expect maybe a 30 to 40% peak load in future. This will have major implications on the cost base going forward.

One good thing is that the 700's (which have hardly been proved in "hard" crushed service under normal commuting (i.e not much disruption) have good social distancing areas internally.

Interesting to see how Crossrail services pan out , as and when it starts full operation.

Hopefully, in the medium term, seats can be spread out a bit more. No need to pack them in as tight as possible for the peak loads if they no longer exist. This would make leisure travel more appealing.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Good to see weekend traffic is picking up as that is probably a key market now as companies don't want there office staff back currently so the rush hour won't exist anytime soon although even pre Covid it was rare to get an excessively loaded Thameslink train in the rush hour unless there was service perturbation.

Pre-virus the evening peak Sutton services through the core were normally full and standing from St Pancras as far as Streatham and still "full and standing" until Mitcham Junction.

That's why, if I had time, I would frequently head out the wrong way past the core when on my way home after a day out - to make sure I had a seat through to Sutton.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Pre-virus the evening peak Sutton services through the core were normally full and standing from St Pancras as far as Streatham and still "full and standing" until Mitcham Junction.

That's why, if I had time, I would frequently head out the wrong way past the core when on my way home after a day out - to make sure I had a seat through to Sutton.

Standing on a fast from SPX to at least St Albans and Harpenden (not helped by seatless 700's of course) , and on a slow SPX to Elstree.