Government advice discussion

[Cowley]

I would imagine there will be an announcement about the scheme for self-employed workers and that construction should stop, unless it's building healthcare buildings (hospitals etc).

Yes I guess we’ll hopefully have a bit more clarity as the week goes on.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The consequences of no action being taken are thousands more , younger and older , will die. Not be out of a job, but die.

There is huge clear water between "no action" and "martial law".

You don't get it, do you? Unemployment and destitution are two of the biggest underlying causes of early death- poor people die up to 9 years before rich people. (Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-43058394). Tipping 6m+ people into unemployment and destitution is going to have significant and long-lasting effects. It will kill people, and more than a few thousand too.

That's not to mention even the short-term effects of social isolation on those with mental health issues, or those at risk of domestic abuse. Children hidden away from authorities for weeks on end is an abuser's paradise.

I completely agree about the lack of an end-game. To be honest, that's the thing that worries me the most about this whole situation; the deeper in we get, the harder it's going to be to find a way out. I don't agree about the economics; to be blunt, it's better to be alive, but unemployed, than dead.

Were it either/or then I'd possibly agree more, but the massively increased morbidity for those who are unemployed and/or destitute means it isn't an either/or decision.

I understand the modelling showed the NHS would come close to collapse, which was the issue. Having spare capacity for unexpected illness was "inefficient" and chopped out by this government and those who voted for them. Ironic, really, that this government's biggest supporters are the over 70s. I'm not laughing.

But the data from Italy really does suggest that those who die- and even those who are tested and shown to have it- are primarily those who are both ill and elderly. The average age of a victim is 78.5; the average age of someone who's caught it and needed help is 63.

I understand why these decisions have been made but, ultimately, the deep depression it will inevitably cause will do more harm to more people than Coronavirus.

 

[RichT54]

There’s going to be a lot of people that struggle with that concept.
I’m also seeing a lot of concrete lorries (they’re building a housing estate on the edge of Crediton) going past today.
I would have thought that this is not ‘essential’ work but until the laws are passed there’s nothing to stop them.

According to Gove, it's OK:

Cabinet minister Michael Gove told the BBC building work could continue if it can be done safely in the open air.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52017520

 

[Dr Hoo]

I understand the modelling showed the NHS would come close to collapse, which was the issue. Having spare capacity for unexpected illness was "inefficient" and chopped out by this government and those who voted for them. Ironic, really, that this government's biggest supporters are the over 70s. I'm not laughing.

As a matter of interest what additional degree of spare capacity used to be maintained before 2010? Would it have been enough to have avoided the need for any restrictions?
Somehow I doubt it.

 

[Typhoon]

Yes I guess we’ll hopefully have a bit more clarity as the week goes on.

Don't expect it from Michael Gove.

According to Gove, it's OK:
Cabinet minister Michael Gove told the BBC building work could continue if it can be done safely in the open air.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52017520

But then:
https://metro.co.uk/video/michael-gove-attempts-clarify-construction-work-essential-2136686/
For those unable to hear the clip, a summary - if you can work from home you must, but some construction work is essential. So what construction work isn't essential? Most I would say, but no examples given despite a prompt from Piers Morgan. Some employers are doing the right thing

while house-building firm Taylor Wimpey said it would close its sites to prevent the spread of Covid-19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52017520

but while advice is vague the unscrupulous will drag workers in to work.

 

[Mathew S]

There is huge clear water between "no action" and "martial law".

You don't get it, do you? Unemployment and destitution are two of the biggest underlying causes of early death- poor people die up to 9 years before rich people. (Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-43058394). Tipping 6m+ people into unemployment and destitution is going to have significant and long-lasting effects. It will kill people, and more than a few thousand too.

That's not to mention even the short-term effects of social isolation on those with mental health issues, or those at risk of domestic abuse. Children hidden away from authorities for weeks on end is an abuser's paradise.



Were it either/or then I'd possibly agree more, but the massively increased morbidity for those who are unemployed and/or destitute means it isn't an either/or decision.

I understand the modelling showed the NHS would come close to collapse, which was the issue. Having spare capacity for unexpected illness was "inefficient" and chopped out by this government and those who voted for them. Ironic, really, that this government's biggest supporters are the over 70s. I'm not laughing.

But the data from Italy really does suggest that those who die- and even those who are tested and shown to have it- are primarily those who are both ill and elderly. The average age of a victim is 78.5; the average age of someone who's caught it and needed help is 63.

I understand why these decisions have been made but, ultimately, the deep depression it will inevitably cause will do more harm to more people than Coronavirus.

The problem with testing is that the current test (PCR) has a 60%+ false negative rate. So one of the reasons that so many of the confirmed positives are older people is that those are the people who tend to be in hospital and can be tested using a ling wash out, which is much more reliable.

I don't agree that the economic impact need be as great as you suggest. Huge, yes, but with the right economic policies from HMG, and they're not doing too badly so far (though a lot more to do), we can all get through this no more than bruised and battered (economically, at least).

 

[DerekC]

I understand why these decisions have been made but, ultimately, the deep depression it will inevitably cause will do more harm to more people than Coronavirus.

I think that's right in purely economic terms, but when push really comes to shove no Government can ignore the huge downside letting an epidemic rip would have - people dying in hospital corridors just isn't publicly acceptable. Very many decisions are driven by this sort of thing.

It's an interesting thought that if this virus had happened two hundred or more years ago it would not have disrupted society very much or made the history books.

 

[Ivor]

I've already witnessed selfish d**khead behaviour myself away from stations.

As we all know and as a former police officer myself, the UK police forces just will not be able to enforce the Prime Ministers measures. A typical shift in an average town the size of Wigan, Chorley & St Helens will turn out around 6-10 deployable (at best!) PCs with a Sergeant & an Inspector. Cops are already dealing with other routine stuff & Mothers Day saw the horrific murder of a 7-year-old child in Bolton that would have stripped resources completely with crime scene management & witness statements, etc.

Cops already have the underlining task of dealing with the scum & great unwashed of society and this makes them vulnerable to exposure of Covid19. One of my former colleagues has said its already a logistical nightmare because a cop cannot be expected to deal with a homeless drunk then go to the address of a OAP who has reported a burglary!

I'm so glad I jumped ship when I did as the policing in this country will be tested far more than it did for incidents like the Manchester Arena attack & the various London terror incidents we've seen in the last few years.

CJ

Totally agree & in the UK we literally have a feral community although I like to think it’s a minority, yeah even at my ripe old age I think it’s a minority but let’s focus on the best of the human race & not the worst

 

[DarloRich]

Maybe, just maybe, if our luck changes, a vaccine or a treatment will be developed which can be rolled out in time to prevent such a rebound, but hoping for that that is one hell of a gamble.

I think they have bet on three things:

• A vaccine or treatment asap and/or
• altering the curve to spread the numbers over a longer period
• Magic ventilators delivered in large numbers from British Industry asap

So do people think this travel is still justifiable?

No - it is none essential. Sorry.

 

[Bantamzen]

The problem with testing is that the current test (PCR) has a 60%+ false negative rate. So one of the reasons that so many of the confirmed positives are older people is that those are the people who tend to be in hospital and can be tested using a ling wash out, which is much more reliable.

I don't agree that the economic impact need be as great as you suggest. Huge, yes, but with the right economic policies from HMG, and they're not doing too badly so far (though a lot more to do), we can all get through this no more than bruised and battered (economically, at least).

The economic impact will be massive even just for a short lock-down, you have 5-6 million self-employed potentially without any income for the foreseeable (a friend of mine has already had to permanently shut his, and my wife has had to cancel all her jobs for at least 4 weeks), with millions more waiting to see how long it will be before HMRC gets the 80% wage grants out to employers (this could be as late as the end of April).

The cost in the long run will run into hundreds of billions easily just in this country. Globally it will likely trigger a deep recession, heck even Donald Trump is talking in terms of this. If he is taking the economy down, you'd better sit up and take notice.

None of this is to pass judgement on the measures taken (though my views are known), but this is no time to underestimate what is coming because at some point when humans adapt enough to the virus, we will have to face up to this as well.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

A few police cars were parked up in various locations in my area on watch today. And a helicopter was on patrol too for the best part of an hour. How long until the Government bring out the spy drones?

 

[edwin_m]

A few police cars were parked up in various locations in my area on watch today. And a helicopter was on patrol too for the best part of an hour. How long until the Government bring out the spy drones?

You mean the spy drones with the invisibility cloaking and noise cancelling?

There'll be panic buying of tinfoil next.

 

[Bald Rick]

A few police cars were parked up in various locations in my area on watch today. And a helicopter was on patrol too for the best part of an hour. How long until the Government bring out the spy drones?

Funnily enough we had a police chopper up for about an hour. Dodgy side of town, east side St Albans.

 

[dgl]

We had a helicopter flying around all day today, although that was probably the Heli Operations training helicopter.

 

[thejuggler]

With commercial airspace largely closed down and excellent weather it is an ideal opportunity for training and survey aircraft to operate.

 

[theironroad]

With commercial airspace largely closed down and excellent weather it is an ideal opportunity for training and survey aircraft to operate.

Regardless of airspace conditions, are they essential tasks that must be carried out now to move essential workers ?

 

[Meerkat]

The clear blue quiet skies are wonderful.
Do we have to let people fly again?

 

[Cowley]

The clear blue quiet skies are wonderful.
Do we have to let people fly again?

I must admit that it is lovely to see the sky completely clear for a change.
There wasn’t a trace of cloud or vapour trails over us for a while yesterday.

 

[DerekC]

Government is talking to the mobile network operators about using phone tracking to see whether people are staying at home.

 

[bussnapperwm]

Government is talking to the mobile network operators about using phone tracking to see whether people are staying at home.

A massive invasion of privacy. We're not China. First phone tracking, what next?

 

[JonathanH]

Government is talking to the mobile network operators about using phone tracking to see whether people are staying at home.

A massive invasion of privacy. We're not China. First phone tracking, what next?

Is it clear about whether they are going to count the number of people staying at home which is entirely legitimate or checking individuals which is a bit more questionable (although these are very unprecedented times).

 

[Belperpete]

But the data from Italy really does suggest that those who die- and even those who are tested and shown to have it- are primarily those who are both ill and elderly. The average age of a victim is 78.5; the average age of someone who's caught it and needed help is 63.

As has already been quoted, the average age of people currently in ICUs in this country is in their 30s. These will be the people dying if they can't get into an ICU bed because the system is clogged with coro victims. A significant number of people who attend A&E are in their 20s - again, these will be the people dying if they can't get into A&E.

 

[Belperpete]

while advice is vague the unscrupulous will drag workers in to work.

I was quite impressed by Sturgeon's speech yesterday, where she outlined exactly what the Scottish position is. Basically, if your work is not in support of medical services or food supply, then it is not essential. So transport workers are considered essential, if they transport medical staff or food supplies. If you can work entirely on your own without coming into contact with anybody else during the course of your work, e.g. you work at home, or as a gardener, then you can also carry on working. I only wish BoJo would be as explicit. Currently there is too much scope for people to consider their work as essential, the Sports Direct case being perhaps the most ludicrous.

 

[Belperpete]

I still don't understand why borders and passenger ports haven't been closed.

I suspect that because it is not necessary. There are very few flights anyway because other countries have suspended flights, and the airlines have cut flights as people are not travelling. Those few flights that are still running are mainly to repatriate people.

Also, are MOT testers considered key workers...what will happen when people's MOT's run out during this (semi) lockdown?

I understand that MOTs on goods vehicles have been extended by 3 months. Consideration is currently being given to doing the same thing for essential workers. Non-essential workers shouldn't be using their cars. Use home delivery if you can't walk to a shop local to you.

 

[bussnapperwm]

Non-essential workers shouldn't be using their cars. Use home delivery if you can't walk to a shop local to you.

And pray how do you expect people to use the luxury of home delivery if they don't have money in the bank to arrange a home delivery (or in Iceland and Sainsburys case, not a Vulnerable elderly or self isolating person)?

 

[Belperpete]

...Cue (yet) another discussion about the difference between household and National budgets... There might well be an almighty crash, which is exactly why a government which can issue bonds at 0.5% would be stupid not to revitalise the economy by using "money" raised that way

A government can only raise money by issuing bonds if someone buys them. Who is buying UK bonds at present? From the press, investment seems to emptying out of the UK toward the US, which is seen as being a safer bet. As I said, the UK and EU governments seem to be spending money hand over fist that they haven't got. When governments have done that in the past, it has led to hyper-inflation, as per Germany in the thirties.

 

[Belperpete]

And pray how do you expect people to use the luxury of home delivery if they don't have money in the bank to arrange a home delivery?

You don't need money in the bank, you can pay by credit card. Or are you talking about people who have the money to pay for the MOT, for their shopping, and for the petrol for their car, but have decided to keep it all in cash when a lock-down is likely and the possibility that they might not be allowed out?! In that case, Darwin's law should apply I would say.

 

[Bantamzen]

I suspect that because it is not necessary. There are very few flights anyway because other countries have suspended flights, and the airlines have cut flights as people are not travelling. Those few flights that are still running are mainly to repatriate people.

I understand that MOTs on goods vehicles have been extended by 3 months. Consideration is currently being given to doing the same thing for essential workers. Non-essential workers shouldn't be using their cars. Use home delivery if you can't walk to a shop local to you.

Have you tried booking a slot if you don't already have one? I've been scouring those in my area for nearly a week without success. My nearest supermarkets are 2.5 and 3.5 miles away, and my wife and I don't drive. So it's either public transport once a week for large shops, or multiple walks with smaller shops. As bad as this situation is, I do not intend to starve myself, sorry.

 

[Bantamzen]

Government is talking to the mobile network operators about using phone tracking to see whether people are staying at home.

This is such a dangerous idea, we are not yet being locked in our homes so why would we need to be individually tracked. Be very careful what we wish for, once given that power can not easily be taken back....

Edit: Of course on the flip side, it can only track you if you take it with you, so perhaps we all need to be GPS microchipped....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Currently there is too much scope for people to consider their work as essential, the Sports Direct case being perhaps the most ludicrous.

Sports Direct were attempting to cynically exploit matters for their own trading benefit, but the Government response to totally refute their claims was very quick and left yet another poor image of the Ashby empire for all to see.