Government advice discussion

[Bletchleyite]

So do people think this travel is still justifiable?

For now, no. It is not an item on the list.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

On the BBC Breakfast TV programme each day, certain points of clarification of statements made in the previous 24 hours by HM Government and Public Health England are raised by the presenters to the visiting person who then answers these queries.

Some of the postings that I have read seem to betray a non-acceptance of such clarifications if this goes against their own particular personally held views.

 

[edwin_m]

No mention of keyworkers whatsoever. Anyone not a keyworker shouldn't be going to work, full stop.

And that seems to be typical of these government advice sessions. They sometimes raise more questions than they answer. It's completely unclear to me whether they intend to stop any non-keyworker from working unless they can do so from home.

In the grand scheme of things, 4000 deaths in six weeks is not particularly exceptional- 50,000 people a month die in the UK.

This virus is nasty in how it kills people- it is a particularly horrible form of pneumonia- and that has an impact on the healthcare system. But effectively bringing in martial law and bringing the economy to a grinding halt, destroying millions of lives, somehow seems a bit OTT.

I don't know how many times this has to be repeated. The degree of infectiousness and mortality from this disease and the lack of any herd immunity or a vaccine means that the deaths could go into the hundreds of thousands very quickly. As soon as the number of people who need hospital treatment exceeds the number of beds, people who might benefit from treatment (for this or for other conditions) will be turned away and the death rate will go right up, as it already has in Italy.

There doesn't seem to be an endgame. That's what worries me. Lockdowns can't go on for long. It just seems panic-stricken. There seems to be no consideration of the consequences of the actions being taken. Millions of people are being tipped out of work with barely a mention.

What happens next? They don't seem to have a clue. Last week the experts thought herd immunity would work.

Herd immunity is still a plan but it can't be achieved overnight as no-one knows the risk profile for people adversely affected by the virus and who will end up in hospital.

There is a plan for the time being - protect the NHS.

Development of an antibody test would really help but until then the 'lockdown' is the only option.

​

There are several possible endgames but we don't yet know which if any will work or how effective they will be. No doubt the relevant people are working as hard as they can to develop each of these and we just have to wait and trust that the government will adjust the advice accordingly.

• An antibody test will be able to detect who has been infected already and therefore is immune, assuming infection confers immunity (which we don't know). This might allow those who have already been infected to have more freedom, but risks people deliberately seeking infection for that reason, some of whom will get seriously ill. For that reason and because there are other priorities I'm doubtful such a test will be made widely available.
• Various existing antiviral drugs are being tested, and if one proves effective it will probably reduce the number needing hospital admission, and/or shorten their average stay. This might allow some restrictions to be lifted while keeping the hospital workload under control. It may reduce the death rate too but that doesn't help with the endgame.
• Infection rates may reduce in the summer, but I don't think there's much confidence this will happen, and if it does they will pick up again in the autumn.
  
• Widespread vaccination should confer herd immunity relatively quickly and allow some normality to return. But that's reckoned to be a year away.
• Herd immunity by widespread infection is several years away by my reckoning if the hospital workload is to be kept within capacity, and will require restrictions to remain in place (and possibly to be relaxed and tightened from time to time).

 

[C J Snarzell]

I worked solo today at a station (non Gateline) often attracts the teens/young adults to smoke weed, drink, congregate & I have nightmares at times getting shot of them.

Today they came out of the woodwork & majority don’t want to travel just hang out & cause aggro, backing me up a few commuters gave them hell re congregating (very few commuters around) & the ‘yobs’ see confrontation as a challenge!!!!

I know this will get worse & I feel the police won’t cope with the lack of man power. I for one hope we don’t see it but I’ll have no problem seeing troops out & about if & only if needed.

There is a section of society that will thrive on this awful scenario by causing trouble, stations at the best of times seems to draw undesirables.

Wishing everyone safety & good health

I've already witnessed selfish d**khead behaviour myself away from stations.

As we all know and as a former police officer myself, the UK police forces just will not be able to enforce the Prime Ministers measures. A typical shift in an average town the size of Wigan, Chorley & St Helens will turn out around 6-10 deployable (at best!) PCs with a Sergeant & an Inspector. Cops are already dealing with other routine stuff & Mothers Day saw the horrific murder of a 7-year-old child in Bolton that would have stripped resources completely with crime scene management & witness statements, etc.

Cops already have the underlining task of dealing with the scum & great unwashed of society and this makes them vulnerable to exposure of Covid19. One of my former colleagues has said its already a logistical nightmare because a cop cannot be expected to deal with a homeless drunk then go to the address of a OAP who has reported a burglary!

I'm so glad I jumped ship when I did as the policing in this country will be tested far more than it did for incidents like the Manchester Arena attack & the various London terror incidents we've seen in the last few years.

CJ

 

[Journeyman]

The reason so many people are still working is that they're terrified of destitution.

I'm a freelance contractor who needs to regularly travel from Scotland to Kent to work, and my wife is a self employed driving instructor. Obviously we can't work now, but we currently get practically nothing in financial assistance.

You want to immediately slash numbers travelling? Pay everyone a Universal Basic Income for the next few months. Put money directly into people's pockets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You want to immediately slash numbers travelling? Pay everyone a Universal Basic Income for the next few months. Put money directly into people's pockets.

I completely agree with this. For those working, fiddle with the tax system so they claw most of it back. Most, not all, as those who can work remotely (like me) need to keep the economy running and paying taxes, so we don't want to incentivise such people not to work.

 

[trebor79]

I completely agree with this. For those working, fiddle with the tax system so they claw most of it back. Most, not all, as those who can work remotely (like me) need to keep the economy running and paying taxes, so we don't want to incentivise such people not to work.

But then you're just going to make another group of people destitute. If my tax bill went up significantly I'd be unable to keep my head above water financially with a large-ish mortgage and young family. UBI is fine as a concept, but would need to be funded by borrowing, not taxation in an economy in stasis. Perhaps those still working don't get the UBI, I've be fine with that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But then you're just going to make another group of people destitute. If my tax bill went up significantly I'd be unable to keep my head above water financially with a large-ish mortgage and young family. UBI is fine as a concept, but would need to be funded by borrowing, not taxation in an economy in stasis. Perhaps those still working don't get the UBI, I've be fine with that.

Sorry, I think I'm not being clear enough.

What I'm saying is:
- Pay a UBI to everyone. I'd suggest going with a level of around the minimum wage, perhaps 80% of it so essential workers on the minimum wage don't just decide to pack up
- Change tax codes so each person pays an amount of tax on any work they do that will, on a full salary, cover the UBI so they effectively don't get it even though they do (if you see what I mean)
- Deal with the minimum wage <-> normal wage issue by suspending all debt payments for anyone who is not working

 

[trebor79]

Sorry, I think I'm not being clear enough.

What I'm saying is:
- Pay a UBI to everyone. I'd suggest going with a level of around the minimum wage, perhaps 80% of it so essential workers on the minimum wage don't just decide to pack up
- Change tax codes so each person pays an amount of tax on any work they do that will, on a full salary, cover the UBI so they effectively don't get it even though they do (if you see what I mean)
- Deal with the minimum wage <-> normal wage issue by suspending all debt payments for anyone who is not working

Oh I see. Yes that would work

 

[thejuggler]

For anyone self employed, especially personal services such as hairdressers, driving instructors etc the advice is to look for alternative employment.

I am on Council update emails and today they had links for people looking for work, including links to supermarket jobs which are available for immediate start.

Our Council also need lots of social care staff. Again immediate start with training given.

Rather than wait for Government to make a decision try and secure employment which at least gets some money into the pocket.

 

[notlob.divad]

DWP also announced they are looking for 1500 new staff to deal with the extra benefits claims they expect to see.

 

[telstarbox]

Am I right in thinking that the changes last night are "by consent" until they can pass secondary legislation in the next few days? (Not planning to do anything verboten!)

 

[Bald Rick]

And that seems to be typical of these government advice sessions. They sometimes raise more questions than they answer. It's completely unclear to me whether they intend to stop any non-keyworker from working unless they can do so from home.


I don't know how many times this has to be repeated. The degree of infectiousness and mortality from this disease and the lack of any herd immunity or a vaccine means that the deaths could go into the hundreds of thousands very quickly. As soon as the number of people who need hospital treatment exceeds the number of beds, people who might benefit from treatment (for this or for other conditions) will be turned away and the death rate will go right up, as it already has in Italy.

​

There are several possible endgames but we don't yet know which if any will work or how effective they will be. No doubt the relevant people are working as hard as they can to develop each of these and we just have to wait and trust that the government will adjust the advice accordingly.

• An antibody test will be able to detect who has been infected already and therefore is immune, assuming infection confers immunity (which we don't know). This might allow those who have already been infected to have more freedom, but risks people deliberately seeking infection for that reason, some of whom will get seriously ill. For that reason and because there are other priorities I'm doubtful such a test will be made widely available.
• Various existing antiviral drugs are being tested, and if one proves effective it will probably reduce the number needing hospital admission, and/or shorten their average stay. This might allow some restrictions to be lifted while keeping the hospital workload under control. It may reduce the death rate too but that doesn't help with the endgame.
• Infection rates may reduce in the summer, but I don't think there's much confidence this will happen, and if it does they will pick up again in the autumn.
  
• Widespread vaccination should confer herd immunity relatively quickly and allow some normality to return. But that's reckoned to be a year away.
• Herd immunity by widespread infection is several years away by my reckoning if the hospital workload is to be kept within capacity, and will require restrictions to remain in place (and possibly to be relaxed and tightened from time to time).

An excellent post Sir.

If I may add to it; I’ve read several reports about the virus and how it mutates quickly. There are 2 major strains, and several smaller variations of each, and its changing. Hence producing an all encompassing vaccine isn’t that straightforward.

 

[trebor79]

Am I right in thinking that the changes last night are "by consent" until they can pass secondary legislation in the next few days? (Not planning to do anything verboten!)

Yes. Boris can't tell us not to do the things we normally do, he can only ask nicely. Until Thursday.
Hence his "police will have the power to..." Not "police have the power to..."

 

[trebor79]

An excellent post Sir.

If I may add to it; I’ve read several reports about the virus and how it mutates quickly. There are 2 major strains, and several smaller variations of each, and its changing. Hence producing an all encompassing vaccine isn’t that straightforward.

Yes. Bear in mind that viruses tend to mutate to less harmful versions. It's natural selection - if a virus kills it's host or makes them ill enough to stay away from other people, it won't spread as much. The mutated forms that cause only mild illness or are asymptomatic will be more successful at spreading.
It's thought that one of the reasons the 1918 pandemic was so devastating was because sick soldiers from the front were transported en masse to field hospitals where they infected medical staff etc, so the deadly strain was given a helping hand in spreading.

 

[scotrail158713]

Just received the following text

“GOV.UK ALERT
CORONAVIRUS
New rules in force now: you must stay at home. More info and exemptions at gov.uk/coronavirus
Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.”

Can’t say the guidance isn’t clear

 

[hexagon789]

Just received the following text

“GOV.UK ALERT
CORONAVIRUS
New rules in force now: you must stay at home. More info and exemptions at gov.uk/coronavirus
Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.”

Can’t say the guidance isn’t clear

Yeah, I got a bit of a surprise when I put my phone on this morning to that message appearing!

 

[1D54]

Sorry if this is in the wrong section I have just travelled through Doncaster and there are enthusiasts in situ. Are these people mad? "

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sorry if this is in the wrong section I have just travelled through Doncaster and there are enthusiasts in situ. Are these people mad? "

Really?

These are not normal circumstances. Please, staff, go kick them out.

 

[trainophile]

No need to pay pensioners a UBI as so far our pensions are not affected. Instead give more to those with small children (i.e. too young to qualify for any benefits etc. in their own right.)

 

[telstarbox]

Worth noting that parents with children already get extra Universal Credit (or Child Tax Credit in a few cases).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No need to pay pensioners a UBI as so far our pensions are not affected. Instead give more to those with small children (i.e. too young to qualify for any benefits etc. in their own right.)

Why did you feel it was necessary to mention the comparative above, as many of the over-70s are in the high risk category.

 

[trainophile]

Why did you feel it was necessary to mention the comparative above, as many of the over-70s are in the high risk category.

Sorry, don't understand the question. Over-70's in the high risk category (including my husband) are not having their current income affected by being unable to work as they don't work anyway.

 

[3rd rail land]

Sorry, don't understand the question. Over-70's in the high risk category (including my husband) are not having their current income affected by being unable to work as they don't work anyway.

I know multiple people over 70 who still work. Not everyone chooses to retire as soon as they qualify for the state pension.

 

[trainophile]

I know multiple people over 70 who still work. Not everyone chooses to retire as soon as they qualify for the state pension.

Well with apologies for any offence caused, but I can't see the problem here. How many over-70's are working out of financial necessity? Actually my OH (74) works in a school on a casual basis doing maintenance jobs but the school is closed so he can't go in. He's not complaining, just accepting the current situation.

 

[3rd rail land]

Well with apologies for any offence caused, but I can't see the problem here. How many over-70's are working out of financial necessity? Actually my OH (74) works in a school on a casual basis doing maintenance jobs but the school is closed so he can't go in. He's not complaining, just accepting the current situation.

I only know one, aged 71, who says she can't afford to retire. I won't go into details but I don't believe her.

I can however believe there are plenty of older people who can't afford to retire for a multitude of reasons even though they have reached state pension age.

 

[Mag_seven]

Sorry if this is in the wrong section I have just travelled through Doncaster and there are enthusiasts in situ. Are these people mad? "

They will be breaking the law at the end of the week.

 

[Cowley]

They will be breaking the law at the end of the week.

There’s going to be a lot of people that struggle with that concept.
I’m also seeing a lot of concrete lorries (they’re building a housing estate on the edge of Crediton) going past today.
I would have thought that this is not ‘essential’ work but until the laws are passed there’s nothing to stop them.

 

[Ivor]

I only know one, aged 71, who says she can't afford to retire. I won't go into details but I don't believe her.

I can however believe there are plenty of older people who can't afford to retire for a multitude of reasons even though they have reached state pension age.

Yep I’m a few years short of 70 but still having to work.....zero hours (Railway) have had the state pension past year but it’s not enough, my wife is one of the WASPI women who’s state pension has been pushed from 60 to 66 so few years to go.

I’m not complaining as you’ve got to play the cards dealt in life, there are a lot worse off than me

 

[Kite159]

There’s going to be a lot of people that struggle with that concept.
I’m also seeing a lot of concrete lorries (they’re building a housing estate on the edge of Crediton) going past today.
I would have thought that this is not ‘essential’ work but until the laws are passed there’s nothing to stop them.

I would imagine there will be an announcement about the scheme for self-employed workers and that construction should stop, unless it's building healthcare buildings (hospitals etc).