Google Mobility Reports

[Jozhua]

In perhaps another dystopian, but useful turn in the light of Coronavirus, Google have compiled data based on user data that people have allowed to be compiled publically;

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

You can search for almost every country and the UK's report is broken down into different regions. We no longer have to guesstimate which regions are responding the best to the lockdown, or point fingers, now we have more concrete evidence!

Here's the UK report:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_IT_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

I have selected a few places from the report that reflect major, mid-size cities as well as more rural areas.
The following places are being visited by this much percent compared to baseline figures from previous months:

Nationwide

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

Greater London

Retail & Recreation -87%
Grocery & Pharmacy -48%
Parks -59%
Transit Stations -80%
Workplaces -62%
Residential +19%

Greater Manchester

Retail & Recreation -84%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -44%
Transit Stations -80%
Workplaces -54%
Residential +16%

Cornwall

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -53%
Parks -54%
Transit Stations -66%
Workplaces -56%
Residential +14%

Cumbria

Retail & Recreation -84%
Grocery & Pharmacy -50%
Parks -54%
Transit Stations -73%
Workplaces -58%
Residential +15%

Surrey

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -44%
Parks -57%
Transit Stations -74%
Workplaces -59%
Residential +17%

Derby

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -55%
Transit Stations -81%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +19%

What is evident from this, is both rural, suburban and urban areas all seem to be fairly evenly matched in regards to people heeding the advice/rules and staying home. In fact, London is doing better than nationwide in all but one regard, so perhaps the criticism is unfounded.

The uptick of residential visits might not be people visiting their friends, could be delivery drivers dropping parcels or relatives dropping supplies at their at risk family members doors.

I'll also compare the UK to other countries, bear in mind, we may be at different stages of the outbreak, etc, so comparing figures at this exact moment in time may not be truly reflective of the public response over time. Plus, the earlier countries act, the less distancing is required to contain the outbreak.


UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

USA -1289 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -47%
Grocery & Pharmacy -22%
Parks -19%
Transit Stations -51%
Workplaces -38%
Residential +12%


Italy -2314 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -94%
Grocery & Pharmacy -85%
Parks -90%
Transit Stations -87%
Workplaces -63%
Residential +24%


Spain -3115 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -94%
Grocery & Pharmacy -76%
Parks -89%
Transit Stations -88%
Workplaces -64%
Residential +22%


France -1223 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -88%
Grocery & Pharmacy -72%
Parks -82%
Transit Stations -87%
Workplaces -56%
Residential +18%

It is certainly interesting to see, those cases per million obviously heavily rely on testing, deaths per million would probably be a more representative figure. The US does seem to be in a worse situation than us, in terms of cases per capita and response, however the cases seem to be concentrated in certain parts of the country, with others less affected. That said, cases can double every 3 days without restrictions, so those parts of the country going on as usual could drag the situation out even longer.

The UK seems similar on most figures, although visits to parks aren't down as much. Personally, I don't think this is such a bad thing, parks are probably the lowest risk areas, plus I think that allowing people out for exercise makes our lockdown less damaging mentally/physically, as well as making it more sustainable and keeping the public on-side.

I think the supermarket situation needs to be sorted out though, the ques are massive and feel like a bit of a liability. Although, I think as people get more settled and are less inclined to panic buy, this figure will drop.

 

[Struner]

Thank you for posting this.
It seems these reports are updated regularly (weekly perhaps?).

 

[Jozhua]

Thank you for posting this.
It seems these reports are updated regularly (weekly perhaps?).

Yeah, I'll have a look at it again this week!

 

[Jozhua]

Previous figures:
UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

Updated Mobility figures, as of 23rd of April (Figures Updated by Google on the 11th.):

UK - 2078 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -81% +4% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -32% +14% Change
Parks -37% +15% Change
Transit Stations -70% +5% Change
Workplaces -57% -2% Change
Residential +19% +4% Change

I can't be sure why the data appears higher, it may be a movement of the baseline, although I have my doubts.

I wonder wether people are beginning to tire of social distancing and perhaps are becoming more confident to go out and about again, despite the lockdown rules.

Previous Figures:

USA -1289 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -47%
Grocery & Pharmacy -22%
Parks -19%
Transit Stations -51%
Workplaces -38%
Residential +12%

Updated:

USA -2633 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -45% +2% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -7% +15% Change
Parks -16% +3% Change
Transit Stations -49% +2% Change
Workplaces -38% ~
Residential +14% +2% Change

This appears to show the increases are not a solely UK phenomenon, there is definitely a restriction to how long these policies will last. These were also updated before a lot of the US protesting against lockdown rules took place, so I'd be interested to see how it develops by the next report.

There's also been a lot of talk about Sweden's controversial lockdown measures, so it'd be interesting to have a look at those too.


Sweden -1621 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -41%
Grocery & Pharmacy -15%
Parks +84%
Transit Stations -36%
Workplaces -24%
Residential +6%

This is definitely interesting. Sweden's government seems to have taken a more voluntary approach to the social distancing concept, with some decent results. Outside of parks and residential, fairly decent across the board reductions can be seen. In fact, residential visits have seen a much smaller increase than the US and UK. This also means that ending lockdown will likely not result in people going back to "normal", as many will continue to take voluntary precautions, hopefully meaning the virus spread rate will remain fairly low.

 

[Smidster]

If people are interested Apple are doing something similar updated daily - https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility/

The usual caveats about this kind of data apply (Only looking at people doing stuff with Apple devices etc) but it does give credence to the suggestion that there has been a small but perceptible increase in movement.

To give a sense this is the data on a weekly basis indexed to Tuesday March 24th (The day after the Lockdown Announcement)

UK - Driving (Compared to March 24th)

31 /3 - -10%
7 / 4 - -6%
14/4 - +1%
21/4 - + 8%

UK - Public Transport

31 /3 - 16%
7 / 4 - -20%
14/4 - -16%
21/4 - -13%

UK Walking -

31 /3 - +4%
7 / 4 - +12%
14/4 - +22%
21/4 - +23%

Figures are available for Leeds, London and Manchester and show similar trends - Figures are still well below average (driving under half of January numbers) and the walking numbers will be influenced by good weather but interesting to see nonetheless

 

[Jozhua]

If people are interested Apple are doing something similar updated daily - https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility/

The usual caveats about this kind of data apply (Only looking at people doing stuff with Apple devices etc) but it does give credence to the suggestion that there has been a small but perceptible increase in movement.

To give a sense this is the data on a weekly basis indexed to Tuesday March 24th (The day after the Lockdown Announcement)

UK - Driving (Compared to March 24th)

31 /3 - -10%
7 / 4 - -6%
14/4 - +1%
21/4 - + 8%

UK - Public Transport

31 /3 - 16%
7 / 4 - -20%
14/4 - -16%
21/4 - -13%

UK Walking -

31 /3 - +4%
7 / 4 - +12%
14/4 - +22%
21/4 - +23%

Figures are available for Leeds, London and Manchester and show similar trends - Figures are still well below average (driving under half of January numbers) and the walking numbers will be influenced by good weather but interesting to see nonetheless

Interesting, the chart on the front page is very interesting!

Appears things have gone down far more in the UK than the US/Germany, but not as much as Italy. Although, I think we weren't hit as bad as Italy!

 

[Jozhua]

Figures updated as of 17th of April, so I'll add the highlights here!

March 29th Release:
UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%

April 11th Release:

UK - 2078 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -81% +4% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -32% +14% Change
Parks -37% +15% Change
Transit Stations -70% +5% Change
Workplaces -57% -2% Change
Residential +19% +4% Change

April 17th Release:

UK - 2233 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -75% +6% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -30% +2% Change
Parks -33% +4% Change
Transit Stations -71% -1% Change
Workplaces -68% -11% Change
Residential +29% +10% Change

Appears visits to most areas are on the increase, despite the continued lockdown. However, public transport and workplaces have fallen for this week.

Sweden figures April 11th:

Sweden -1621 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -41%
Grocery & Pharmacy -15%
Parks +84%
Transit Stations -36%
Workplaces -24%
Residential +6%

Sweden figures April 17th:

Sweden -1803 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -18% +23%
Grocery & Pharmacy -3% +12%
Parks +56% -28%
Transit Stations -36% ~
Workplaces -32% -8%
Residential +11% +5%

Visits are also on the increase in Sweden, which isn't dissimilar to the trend in the UK, although Sweden's increase appears to be a larger percentage. It is clear some level of voluntary social distance is required everywhere, as despite the laws remaining the same in each country, mobility trends are changing. Making sure to communicate clearly to the public what is needed, why and for how long is a vital part of this process, if you have to deal with pesky human rights and can't go CCP on your citizens and weld their doors shut

The US has not yet been updated, although I will post once this information is available.

 

[Jozhua]

New data available on Google Mobility Reports!


March 29th Release:
UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%


April 11th Release:

UK - 2078 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -81% +4% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -32% +14% Change
Parks -37% +15% Change
Transit Stations -70% +5% Change
Workplaces -57% -2% Change
Residential +19% +4% Change

April 17th Release:

UK - 2233 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -75% +6% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -30% +2% Change
Parks -33% +4% Change
Transit Stations -71% -1% Change
Workplaces -68% -11% Change
Residential +29% +10% Change

*April 26th Release:

*UK - 2671 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -78% -3% Change (On the 17/04) +7% (On 29/03)
Grocery & Pharmacy -37% -7% Change (On 17/04) +9% (On 29/03)
Parks -10% +23% Change (On 17/04) +42% (On 29/03)
Transit Stations -64% +7% Change (On 17/04) +11% Change (On 29/03)
Workplaces -48% +20% Change (On 17/04) +7% Change (On 29/03)
Residential +14% -15% Change (On 17/04) -1% Change (On 29/03)

 

[Jozhua]

United States Statistics:

March 29th/Aprill 11th:

USA -1289 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -47%
Grocery & Pharmacy -22%
Parks -19%
Transit Stations -51%
Workplaces -38%
Residential +12%

April 17th:

USA -2633 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -45% +2% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -7% +15% Change
Parks -16% +3% Change
Transit Stations -49% +2% Change
Workplaces -38% ~
Residential +14% +2% Change

*April 26th:

*USA - 3430 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -42% +3% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -16% -9% Change
Parks -11% +5% Change
Transit Stations -48% +1% Change
Workplaces -36% +2% Change
Residential +11% -3% Change

Small changes, fairly stable numbers in the US this week, decent reductions can actually be seen on Grocery & Pharmacy categories as people adjust their habits.

In regards to Sweden, the controversial figure in all this:

Sweden figures April 11th:

Sweden -1621 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -41%
Grocery & Pharmacy -15%
Parks +84%
Transit Stations -36%
Workplaces -24%
Residential +6%

Sweden figures April 17th:

Sweden -1803 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -18% +23%
Grocery & Pharmacy -3% +12%
Parks +56% -28%
Transit Stations -36% ~
Workplaces -32% -8%
Residential +11% +5%


*Sweden figures April 26th:

*Sweden -2083 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -13% +5% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -5% -2% Change
Parks +82% +26% Change
Transit Stations -31% +5% Change
Workplaces -11% -21% Change
Residential +4% -7% Change

Revisiting Italy:

Italy figures March 29th:

Italy -2314 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -94%
Grocery & Pharmacy -85%
Parks -90%
Transit Stations -87%
Workplaces -63%
Residential +24%

*Italy Figures April 26th:

*Italy -3443 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -92% +2% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -74% +11% Change
Parks -85% +5% Change
Transit Stations -81% +6% Change
Workplaces -54% +9% Change
Residential +22% -2% Change

Revisiting Spain:

Spain Figures March 29th:

Spain -3115 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -94%
Grocery & Pharmacy -76%
Parks -89%
Transit Stations -88%
Workplaces -64%
Residential +22%


*Spain Figures April 26th:

*Spain -4598 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -92% +2% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -66% +10% Change
Parks -77% +12% Change
Transit Stations -82% +6% Change
Workplaces -62% +2% Change
Residential +21% -1% Change

And France:

France Figures March 29th:

France -1223 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -88%
Grocery & Pharmacy -72%
Parks -82%
Transit Stations -87%
Workplaces -56%
Residential +18%

*France Figures April 26th:

*France -1941 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -83% +5% Change
Grocery & Pharmacy -58% +14% Change
Parks -68% +14% Change
Transit Stations -77% +10% Change
Workplaces -43% +13% Change
Residential +16% -2% Change

Just a note that case numbers are updated at the time of writing these posts and are not included in the report, this means they are ahead by approximately a week, if not more. However, they should offer some rough guidance in knowing where a country is in its outbreak and how the response shapes case numbers over time.

 

[Jozhua]

UK figures updated as of the 2nd of May:

March 29th Release:
UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%


April 11th & 17th Releases can be found in older posts ^

April 26th Release:

UK - 2671 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -78%
Grocery & Pharmacy -37%
Parks -10%
Transit Stations -64%
Workplaces -48%
Residential +14%

*May 2nd Release:

*UK - 3623 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -78% ~0% Change (On 26/04) +7% (On 29/03)
Grocery & Pharmacy -30% +7% Change (On 26/04) +16% (On 29/03)
Parks -18% -8% Change (On 26/04) +34% (On 29/03)
Transit Stations -63% +1% Change (On 26/04) +12% (On 29/03)
Workplaces -49% -1% Change (On 26/04) +6% (On 29/03)
Residential +17% +3% Change (On 17/04) +2% (On 29/03)

Things are becoming almost universally busier, but not at a particularly fast rate. When compared to just over a month ago, the changes are quite large, but they aren't too different compared to previous weeks. I think there may be a jump in retail & recreation when garden centres re-open. This may reduce demand on supermarkets to provide gardening goods, so could possibly help reduce traffic in the Grocery/Pharmacy category.

As cases/deaths continue to steadily rise, lockdown will go on for longer. However slow the creep back to "normality" is continuing, however slow, and despite little to no change in policy. At current rates, it would be likely to estimate that movement wise, things will be back to normal in a further two to three months, even if policy does not change. In my opinion, this highlights the importance of testing, contact tracing, and PPE not just for healthcare workers but for the general public.

I'll update this thread with the international statistics soon

 

[johnnychips]

Thanks for taking the effort to do this.

 

[Jozhua]

Thanks for taking the effort to do this.

Thank-you! Is of interest to me as I'm sure it is everyone else, so I'm happy to keep updating it

 

[Jozhua]

The UK figures have been updated as of the 21st of May.

March 29th Release:
UK -914 Cases Per Million

Retail & Recreation -85%
Grocery & Pharmacy -46%
Parks -52%
Transit Stations -75%
Workplaces -55%
Residential +15%


April 11th, 17th & 26th Releases can be found in older posts ^


May 2nd Release:

UK - 3623 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -78% ~0% Change (On 26/04) +7% (On 29/03)
Grocery & Pharmacy -30% +7% Change (On 26/04) +16% (On 29/03)
Parks -18% -8% Change (On 26/04) +34% (On 29/03)
Transit Stations -63% +1% Change (On 26/04) +12% (On 29/03)
Workplaces -49% -1% Change (On 26/04) +6% (On 29/03)
Residential +17% +3% Change (On 17/04) +2% (On 29/03)

May 21st Release:

UK - 4051 Cases Per Million
Retail & Recreation -64% +14% Change (On 02/05)
Grocery & Pharmacy -16% +14% Change (On 02/05)
Parks +51% +69% Change (On 02/05)
Transit Stations -58% +5% Change (On 02/05)
Workplaces -59% -10% Change (On 02/05)
Residential +23% +6% Change (On 02/05)

Things are beginning to get busier across the board, but deaths are continuing to decline for the time being. As social interaction moves to outdoor spaces, parks are becoming busier. I think we will see a big increase in residential visits by the next report, as people meet in gardens/private outdoor space.

It will be interesting to see how the changes relate to case numbers and if things stay fairly stable.