German "R" rate increases

[Karl]

moderator note : posts #1-#6 originally in this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...coverings-wearing-on-public-transport.205556/

Germany’s disease control agency assured the country that it does not expect a new nationwide coronavirus outbreak

despite the rate of reproduction rising sharply over the weekend.

Both the measurements Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI) uses to assess the progress of the coronavirus rose well over the value of one on Saturday.

While the 4-day R number, which measures the mean number of people infected by one person, rose to 1.79, the seven-day average - seen as a more reliable indicator of the virus’s progress - also rose to 1.55.

The RKI explained that a small number of local outbreaks were skewing the results. “A nationwide increase in case numbers is not anticipated,” the agency stated...

Germany's 'R' rate has just been reported as rising to 1.79. Not good news. Perhaps we should at least keep wearing our face coverings?

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[RomeoCharlie71]

Germany's 'R' rate has just been reported as rising to 1.79. Not good news. Perhaps we should at least keep wearing our face coverings?

Rising from 1.79 to 2.88, according to Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

Germany's coronavirus R number has leapt again - from 1.79 on Saturday to 2.88 on Sunday, official figures show.

The Robert Koch Institute for public health (RKI), which has been publishing the country's COVID-19 statistics, said the new number is based on a four-day average. On Friday it was 1.06.

The R number refers to the reproductive rate of the disease. A figure of 2.88 means that for every 100 people who contract coronavirus, another 288 are likely to become infected too

RKI said outbreaks had been reported in a variety of locations including hospitals and nursing homes.

 

[Karl]

Rising from 1.79 to 2.88, according to Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

Not looking good. Germany had a respectively good record.

 

[matt_world2004]

About 75% in London

 

[adc82140]

Don't read too much in to that R value report. Firstly, Germany has a low overall incidence of cases, so R will fluctuate wildly. Secondly, the vast majority of these new cases are within one meat processing plant, and not the community at large. The local governor there is not concerned. Don't fall for Sky News's scaremongering obsession with R.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Rising from 1.79 to 2.88, according to Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

I see the lockdown alarmists are out spreading misinformation again. In actual fact the weekly average R number in Germany is only 1.55; not ideal but barely half what Sky are reporting.

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Germany’s disease control agency assured the country that it does not expect a new nationwide coronavirus outbreak despite the rate of reproduction rising sharply over the weekend.

Both the measurements Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI) uses to assess the progress of the coronavirus rose well over the value of one on Saturday.

While the 4-day R number, which measures the mean number of people infected by one person, rose to 1.79, the seven-day average - seen as a more reliable indicator of the virus’s progress - also rose to 1.55.

The RKI explained that a small number of local outbreaks were skewing the results. “A nationwide increase in case numbers is not anticipated” the agency stated.

 

[Smidster]

I do worry about our obsession with "R" - It is not the be all and end all that some want it to be - while a simple number is great it is only an estimate, based on old-data, and ignores factors like how many cases you have or the quality of your test and track program.

You can read the RKI data here - https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-06-21-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile . The key paragraph being:

Estimates of the reproduction numbers (R-value and 7-day R-value) were between 2 and 3 during the last few days. This is mainly related to local outbreaks which are described above, the outbreak in North Rhine-Westphalia playing a particularly important role in this context . Since case numbers in Germany are generally low, these local outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the COVID-19 Situation Report 21/06/2020 Note: The report is a snapshot and is continuously updated. 6 reproduction number. Further developments need to be monitored closely during the upcoming days, especially in regard to whether case numbers are increasing outside of outbreak contexts.

Is it worth knowing about and keeping a close eye on? Yes. It is not a reason for mass panic.

 

[edwin_m]

In Germany they have low Covid numbers overall and are organized to deal with infections. If as suggested this is highly localized then the solution will be to implement local measures around the infection centre itself. The UK has much higher numbers of infections and we are less able to deal with them, so this would be much more of a concern if it happened here.

 

[yorkie]

The "R" value is meaningless when you get to very low number of infections, basically.

So the headline isn't worth anything.

 

[adc82140]

Even if R does rise here, it means very little. Look at the hoo ha when they said it was 1.1 in the South West. That's because case loads are very low in the south west, and it was skewed by that outbreak at Weston Super Mare hospital, which was promptly dealt with. Lo and behold, it's back down at 0.9. But that 1.1 value altered the UK average to 0.7 to 1.0 for that week. Then the press used that to scare the less informed into buying more of their scabby little papers.

 

[Mag_seven]

The R value whilst of use to local health officials to aid decision making is probably best left unpublished to the wider population as all it gives is ammunition to lockdown enthusiasts and stories for the press to produce alarming headlines.

 

[MikeWM]

The R value whilst of use to local health officials to aid decision making is probably best left unpublished to the wider population as all it gives is ammunition to lockdown enthusiasts and stories for the press to produce alarming headlines.

To prove this point beyond all doubt, the 4-day estimate for R in Germany is now down to 0.72. I wonder how many headlines that will generate? (answer : none).

Source:
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1275816752459505667

I hate to say I told you so, but I checked today's Robert Koch Institute Situationsbericht and the 4 day R estimate is now down to 0.72.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-06-24-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

 

[Bantamzen]

To prove this point beyond all doubt, the 4-day estimate for R in Germany is now down to 0.72. I wonder how many headlines that will generate? (answer : none).

Source:
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1275816752459505667

Surprisingly, Germany has fallen off the media radar. But I'm sure its nothing to do with the R value stabilising again....