General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[bb21]

Jim Murphy blaming the SNP and "circumstances" for his party's failings at the moment on the BBC. But he hasn't quit. He spoke about "going forward" and "learning lessons".

As an SNP supporter, I'm quite happy to see Murphy leading the party forward indefinitely.

Quite some discontent within Labour party about the contribution Jim Murphy made to this campaign, so I doubt your wishes would be granted.

Unfortunately, I suspect that, like George Galloway, losing won't stop him.

Farage is UKIP party. I doubt they would let him go.

 

[me123]

Farage is UKIP party. I doubt they would let him go.

Well they have. He's gone.

But I'm sure he'll remain high profile. He's just said that he might even reapply for the job! :roll:

 

[Johnuk123]

Farage and Murphy resigned, Miliband and Clegg in the next couple of hours, 4 leaders gone in a day how bizarre.

 

[me123]

Farage and Murphy resigned, Miliband and Clegg in the next couple of hours, 4 leaders gone in a day how bizarre.

Murphy rather bizarrely hasn't resigned, though. He's given a speech telling us about his plans going forward. I don't think he'll manage to hold on for long, though. Given his short but disastrous time at the reigns of Scottish Labour, the party has plunged to near insignificance. I can't imagine that Labour party members will be behind him for the Holyrood elections.
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Big shocker as Nick Clegg announces his resignation.

 

[Searle]

I still like Clegg so it's quite sad to see this. Probably a necessary step, as much as I like him, he's ruined the Lib Dems

 

[bb21]

Well they have. He's gone.

But I'm sure he'll remain high profile. He's just said that he might even reapply for the job! :roll:

Now, now. I think you know what I meant.

He will still be around, in one way or another, even if not as the leader. Without Farage, who are UKIP?

I still like Clegg so it's quite sad to see this. Probably a necessary step, as much as I like him, he's ruined the Lib Dems

He was royally shafted by David Cameron, but he only has himself to blame.

 

[ExRes]

Farage is UKIP party. I doubt they would let him go.

I would say that Farage has been the UKIP party and has done a good job bringing them to public awareness, however, if UKIP is to go forward as an accepted political party then his public persona as the man with the fag and pint at every opportunity needs to be binned

 

[me123]

Now, now. I think you know what I meant.

He will still be around, in one way or another, even if not as the leader. Without Farage, who are UKIP?

Yeah, whatever happens he'll still be a high profile MEP. But he remains a very polarising figure - for all the people that love him, there's people like me who just think he's quite sleazy.

However, we've almost certainly got what Farage wants - a referendum on EU membership. And it's very possible we (or rather, influential Middle England) will vote to take us out of the EU.

So, what happens then for UKIP? Their raison d'être has gone, and they've not made any real gains in this election. I think they'll struggle going forward without their unique selling point.

 

[Searle]

Don't worry, Farage will be around to continue harping on during the EU referendum before he fades away

 

[me123]

Another unexpected turn of events, Mr Miliband quits. He leaves Labour temporarily in the hands of Harriet Harman.

 

[telstarbox]

The poll on this thread suggests that RailUK members are more left-leaning than the population as a whole.

 

[ainsworth74]

Another unexpected turn of events, Mr Miliband quits. He leaves Labour temporarily in the hands of Harriet Harman.

Well now Labour really do have my sympathy!

 

[90sWereBetter]

I turned off the coverage at 2am after the Nuneaton result was a disaster. But now I've had time to think about it, this could be a pyrrhic victory for Cameron. A tiny majority and the EU becoming a major issue over the next few years. We could see the Tories tearing each other to pieces like they did in 1992-1997. And if a few by-elections go the other way, suddenly there's no majority at all...

 

[TheNewNo2]

I turned off the coverage at 2am after the Nuneaton result was a disaster. But now I've had time to think about it, this could be a pyrrhic victory for Cameron. A tiny majority and the EU becoming a major issue over the next few years. We could see the Tories tearing each other to pieces like they did in 1992-1997. And if a few by-elections go the other way, suddenly there's no majority at all...

That's true, but in the meantime we're ****ed.

 

[table38]

So with a majority now, the Tories will be able to press ahead with the boundary changes Clegg reneged on. With Labour wiped out in Scotland and Tory gains in Wales, that ought to keep Labour out for a long time ,

 

[telstarbox]

It hasn't been mentioned as much as UKIP but the Green Party made significant progress on last time with 1.1 million votes, holding Brighton Pavilion, four second places and several third places.

 

[radamfi]

So with a majority now, the Tories will be able to press ahead with the boundary changes Clegg reneged on.

That's not in the current manifesto, as far as I can tell.

The Tories squelched on the deal first as they blocked House of Lords reform, so the boundary changes were blocked subsequently in retaliation.

I'm now in a very difficult position personally. I was planning to emigrate to the Netherlands in about 5-10 years time, because of their far superior cycling and local public transport, but that may not be possible if the UK pulls out of the EU. So I may now be forced to change my plans and emigrate before the referendum.

 

[Manchester77]

So now the real power lies in the hands of the mental Tory back benchers or as Mr Major called them the *******s!

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well they have. He's gone.

But I'm sure he'll remain high profile. He's just said that he might even reapply for the job! :roll:

He'll be back. I suspected the party simply wouldn't accept the resignation, but I expect he'll be "spokesperson" or something until he can reclaim leadership "if the party wants him" as he put it. They will.
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I turned off the coverage at 2am after the Nuneaton result was a disaster. But now I've had time to think about it, this could be a pyrrhic victory for Cameron. A tiny majority and the EU becoming a major issue over the next few years. We could see the Tories tearing each other to pieces like they did in 1992-1997. And if a few by-elections go the other way, suddenly there's no majority at all...

With an EU referendum, every single major party except UKIP is in favour of staying in. Whilst you have the Daily Mail and the Express who will whine about it, the Murdoch position is currently very much in with renegotiation, and so we'll see a massive campaign against leaving.

Bar a UKIP wipeout ala the SNP in Scotland afterwards, I'm not worried. The chances of that happening with UKIP being viewed how they are is low, though.
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So with a majority now, the Tories will be able to press ahead with the boundary changes Clegg reneged on. With Labour wiped out in Scotland and Tory gains in Wales, that ought to keep Labour out for a long time ,

Hooray for gerrymandering!

I thought this was 2015, not 1815.

 

[radamfi]

Shapps has just confirmed that the boundary changes will come in from 2018, with the number of seats reduced to 600.

 

[table38]

Hooray for gerrymandering!

I thought this was 2015, not 1815.

Why am I not suprised that you think making the system fairer is somehow "gerrymandering" :roll:

 

[TheKnightWho]

Why am I not suprised that you think making the system fairer is somehow "gerrymandering" :roll:

Because it matters how you reorganise the electoral boundaries. We hardly have the same situation as the United States, with utterly ridiculous state districts that conveniently put almost all people in the less dominant party in one district and have slim majorities for the more dominant one in others giving a huge advantage, but we do have a problem with it.

Just because you want to pretend a problem doesn't exist doesn't make it go away. Or do you somehow think I'm against fairness?

 

[AM9]

The United Kingdom recognises itself is a nation consisting of four countries, one of which is Scotland. This is currently recognised by the UK Government, or rather what was the UK Government.

Furthermore, Scotland's legislature is entirely separate from that of England and Wales, yet much of it is controlled from Westminster. So we're in the bizarre situation that large swathes of our legislature are now going to be controlled by a government that we did not elect. Only 1 out of 59 MPs we returned represents this party. 85.1% of the population did not vote for this party. Their mandate to control our legislature is almost non-existent.

Elsewhere, Mark Reckless loses his UKIP seat to the Conservatives.

The UK government doesn't control the Scotland legislature which has its own parliament which in turn has its own elections. As of today, the General Election just held, the parliament for the whole of the UK has just been chosen. At the moment, the boundaries between the four parts of the UK are not relevant in terms of the total number of MPs and their voting power, (however much any of us here think that FPtP does not give results that are proportionally representative of the UK electorate's wishes).
If Cameron honours the additional devolution promises given before the referendum last year, that situation will change for certain types of UK legislation. At the moment, as far as the formal functioning of the UK parliament goes, a group of seats held by one party in Scotland has no more significance than a group held in the south-west (as the Liberals have traditionally done) or the industrial north (as Labour has with differing success for decades). At Westminster, they are just geographical clusters of seats, like the virtually all blue map of non-metropolitan England south of a line drawn between the Wash and the Severn estuary

 

[table38]

Just because you want to pretend a problem doesn't exist doesn't make it go away. Or do you somehow think I'm against fairness?

Err, wrong again, I think a problem does exist, and if you bothered to do some research, you'd soon see why!

 

[TheKnightWho]

Err, wrong again, I think a problem does exist, and if you bothered to do some research, you'd soon see why!

The problem is they're imbalanced in terms of the absolute numbers. The solution is not to "rebalance" such that it conveniently favours the Conservatives. A party for whom fairness no longer seems to matter when it stops helping them as with keeping FPTP.

Assuming I'm too thick to know what boundary reform is for is deeply patronising.

 

[Metrailway]

Boundary changes were generally going to happen despite who won - The Lords in the last parliament just delayed the review date starting in 2015 instead of 2013.

 

[table38]

Assuming I'm too thick to know what boundary reform is for is deeply patronising.

Not at all. It's the concept of fairness you seem be struggling with. But feel free to keep digging

 

[radamfi]

Is it possible to draw any boundaries to make FPTP fair?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Not at all. It's the concept of fairness you seem be struggling with. But feel free to keep digging

Yeah, I mean, if I just happened to draw the boundaries so they contained massive Conservative majorities but slim Labour ones, giving Labour more seats per vote, that would be totally fair right?

It's almost like you're wilfully missing the point.

""

 

[table38]

Yeah, I mean, if I just happened to draw the boundaries so they contained massive Conservative majorities but slim Labour ones, giving Labour more seats per vote, that would be totally fair right?

It's almost like you're wilfully missing the point.

""

No , I was talking about making things fairer. You seem to have this strange understanding of the word to include a concept of "fairer to someone" which is an oxymoron.

Perhaps you meant "favours someone" which isn't what I said.