General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[bb21]

Carswell seemingly in favour of electoral reform. Not entirely surprising.



What is surprising is that he also mentioned the Greens and considered them a genuine but under-represented political forces alongside UKIP - one of the few pleasant surprises from UKIP that I've seen. Genuinely impressed.

I object to the Greens being spoken about in the same sentence as UKIP.

 

[GatwickDepress]

Recount under way in Wirral West.

Labour have taken a seat in Edinburgh South, but it was a very close contest with the SNP.

That's Edinburgh for you!

 

[me123]

UKIP's Douglas Carswell holds Clacton. I'd be cautious in reading too much into this, considering he was the Tory incumbent from the last election. Could be more of a statement of support for Carswell than it is for UKIP.

 

[bb21]

Vince Cable gone.

Is Clegg going to hang on in Sheffield Hallam?

 

[me123]

That's Edinburgh for you!

Well, the good people of Edinburgh North & Leith saw sense 5,500 SNP majority over Labour there. Mostly appears to be from Lib Dem voters.

SNP probably won't do quite as well in Edinburgh as they have done in the West, as Edinburgh quite emphatically rejected independence, with 61.1% of the vote.

In Englandshire, Vince Cable gone in Twickenham. Lost his seat to the Tories.
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SNP take Aberdeenshire West from the Lib Dems, again mostly from disillusioned Lib Dem voters, although Labour took a fair knock here. Sir Robert Smith gone for the Lib Dems.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Ultimately in this election, though, LD losses to the Tories and Labour losses to the SNP are relatively immaterial given the likely coalitions that would form. Indeed, it's the SNP gains from the LDs and any Con-Lab switches that are the real deciders.

 

[me123]

SNP take Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross from the Lib Dems - a safe Lib Dem seat.

 

[GatwickDepress]

Well, the good people of Edinburgh North & Leith saw sense 5,500 SNP majority over Labour there.

SNP probably won't do quite as well in Edinburgh as they have done in the West, as Edinburgh quite emphatically rejected independence, with 61.1% of the vote.

In Englandshire, Vince Cable gone in Twickenham. Lost his seat to the Tories.

It's quite strange seeing that single red speck in a sea of yellow at the moment - like a drop of masala on a perfect korma. Be interesting to see what the results will be in the other Edinburgh constituencies; and how close they'll be!

 

[me123]

Edinburgh East goes to SNP with a majority of about 9,000.

Not noted so far, but Greens doing quite well in Edinburgh. About 2-3000 in each of the seats so far.
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It's quite strange seeing that single red speck in a sea of yellow at the moment - like a drop of masala on a perfect korma. Be interesting to see what the results will be in the other Edinburgh constituencies; and how close they'll be!

I don't know the demographics of Edinburgh too well, but I think the South constituency is the more affluent area, so perhaps understandably this was the most difficult SNP target in the city.

50 SNP seats now. Wow.

 

[bb21]

Clegg held on by less than 3000.

 

[me123]

Sheffield Hallam up now...

Nick Clegg polls 22215 votes and holds the seat. A remarkable result considering.

 

[bb21]

Sounds like he is standing down judging by his speech. Not surprising by the results.

 

[me123]

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale have returned David Mundell (previously our only Tory MP) with a majority of just 800 odd votes.

 

[bb21]

Tories take Southampton Itchen. Oh dear.

 

[me123]

I think Irvine Welsh has summed it up quite nicely on his Twitter account.

Swing by Lib Dem & UKIP voters to Tory in England due to SNP fear, further suggests BOTH countries are building futures without each other.

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Recount in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. Very close and important constituency for all of the UK. That's Michael Moore's seat.

Polling suggested a close three-way race between the incumbent Lib Dems, the Tories and the SNP. But Michael Moore said to a reporter overnight apparently that he doesn't think he'll survive, so it could be close between Tories and SNP.
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Edinburgh West goes to SNP, with a c3000 majority. Lib Dems doing remarkably well here, only losing a small portion of the vote. SNP gains came from Labour and Tory votes here.

Dumfries & Galloway goes to SNP as well, quite a strong majority over the Tories considering the result next door.
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Ross, Skye & Lochaber return an SNP MP. Charles Kennedy (Lib Dems) is gone (c5,000 majority).

 

[Starmill]

Who said look out for Camborne? The 4 way marginal that became a 7k Conservative majority.
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Some of my friends from Hazel Grove are gutted they have a Conservative when it's beed Lib Dem for years.

 

[bb21]

Now forecast 325 Tories, effective majority. Scary times.

 

[me123]

Argyll & Bute go SNP from Lib Dems. Another strong Lib Dem seat goes to SNP. Again, a massive swing to the SNP, but LD vote remained very static, with the voters mostly coming from Labour and the Tories.
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Cameron unsurprisingly re-elected with an overwhelming majority (despite strong competition from a man dressed as Elmo - I love the eccentric English candidates!).

Sounds like a victory speech from Cameron at this early stage. Promises swift devolution for Scotland and a "necessary" referendum on the EU.

 

[St Rollox]

Argyll & Bute go SNP from Lib Dems. Another strong Lib Dem seat goes to SNP. Again, a massive swing to the SNP, but LD vote remained very static, with the voters mostly coming from Labour and the Tories.

Brendan O'Hara (MP) was a member of a SNP fringe group called the 79 Group formed after the SNP disaster in 1979 election.
Another member was a chap called Alex Salmond, not too sure what became of him.

 

[me123]

Danny Alexander loses Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to SNP. Another big name Lib Dem bites the dust.

Almost certainly just the one Scottish Labour MP (who appears to be a very angry little man based on his interview on the BBC).

Just one seat left in Scotland, and it's a close call between Conservative and SNP. Depending on how Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk votes, we could see the Tories having more Scottish MPs than Labour! They're recounting the last constituency, but it's apparently very close there.

Excellent night for us SNP supporters, though. 55 seats, perhaps 56 depending on how the last constituency votes. Maybe not quite the 58 predicted at the start of the night, but anyone predicting this one year ago would have been laughed at and ignored.

For those who are claiming that the SNP have let the Tories in... nothing could be further from the truth. SNP have taken primarily Labour and Lib Dem seats. Even if we returned 59 Labour MPs, the Tories still look on track to have an effective majority. The only people who failed to stop the Tories were Labour themselves, who have made little to no progress in England.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

That's it. This must have been rigged like the indy ref.
The Independent yesterday had a seat prediction of 290 for Labour.
YouGov, the BBC's poll of polls, Twitter polls etc. All showed a 34% equzl split Labour and Tory. I'm not going to vote ever again until it's not rigged.
So thanks to the ConDems last time a 5year parliament is certain.
I am affraid suicide rates will go up again in suffering Northern constituencies.
It is horrible, How can my area ever get better now??

It's also appears RailForum voters don't count looking at the above poll.

 

[me123]

George Galloway polled only 8557 votes in Bradford West, and has lost his seat to the Labour party by a majority of almost 11,000 votes. Good riddance.

 

[bb21]

The loony/clown is finally gone. Thank goodness.

 

[richw]

So far ukip have the third most votes yet only 1 seat. Whilst I don't want them anywhere near government it highlights the failings in our voting systems.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Does the BBC's 325 seat projection for Tories include the Tory speaker?

 

[me123]

No. Bercow campaigns generally unopposed under the banner of "Speaker". He is not considered a Tory. Although 326 is considered a majority, in practice 323 is a majority because of the offices of speaker and his deputies.

 

[bb21]

Add to that the Sinn Fein MPs who don't take up their positions at Westminster and the DUP (already with 8 seats) who will virtually vote with the Tories, the effective majority is more like 316.
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Lovely, Theresa May already talking about plans to force through legislation on snooping on people.

 

[GatwickDepress]

Add to that the Sinn Fein MPs who don't take up their positions at Westminster and the DUP (already with 8 seats) who will virtually vote with the Tories, the effective majority is more like 316.
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Lovely, Theresa May already talking about plans to force through legislation on snooping on people.

Oh good. These four years are off to a flying start already!

 

[Trog]

To my mind the most worrying thing for the future is that England and Wales have voted for an opposite government to Scotland. There is going to be trouble ahead, and division is not a good idea when the existing combined country is too small to be safe in the modern world.

 

[bb21]

Tories now officially projected 329. Please, just put us all out of our miseries.