General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[yorksrob]

I'm not sure how Cameron can be judged to have won last night's Q&A, given that he failed to answer any of the questions posed to him from what I could see. I guess if you fail to answer something confidentiality enough you get away with it.

 

[table38]

It's all down to perception. By my judgement, Miliband was way more evasive, and kept doing that Gordon Brown thing where he crowbarred his rehearsed sound-bites in regardless of what the question was

A bit creepy that Miliband kept asking people for their names; maybe so that the party can track down these awful off-message members of the public and go round to "readjust" their options like they tried with Gillian Duffy last time

 

[yorksrob]

A bit creepy that Miliband kept asking people for their names

Perhaps he's taken a leaf out of Starbucks book.

A lesson to be wary of big business perhaps.

 

[table38]

Don't tell him, Pike!

 

[DownSouth]

You're right it is a four year term for 1st place, thanks.
Thanks DownSouth for explaining it all also.

That confusion over the term length is probably a result of having national and local elections on the same day - and adding a council by-election on top can't help either.

I've never understood this approach of stacking up elections on the same day, which is also used in the USA. It seems rather undemocratic to have the local government elections crowded out of the media by all the attention going to the national election. Local government is where the rubber hits the road, and it should be contested on its own merits with the candidates being properly vetted instead of just being a pawn in the national Cameron v Miliband fight.

The other deleterious effect, observed more obviously in the USA, is that holding multiple elections on the same day encourages voting on party lines and crowds out Independent participation. It's extremely tough for an Independent to get elected to even a school district board in the USA because the vast number of posts being contested prompts most people to just mark the whole Democratic ticket or the whole Republican ticket instead of considering each post.

 

[northwichcat]

It's all down to perception. By my judgement, Miliband was way more evasive, and kept doing that Gordon Brown thing where he crowbarred his rehearsed sound-bites in regardless of what the question was

I personally think Miliband made a bit of a mistake when he was questioned about Ed Balls calling Cameron's note a joke. If I was Miliband I would have wanted to clarify a fragile economy is not a joke but the joke was Cameron carrying around a prop and saying it was the fault of the previous government not the global market. Yet he blames the global market for the recovery not being as quick as the Conservative's originally envisaged.

One thing which seems to have been forgotten by a lot of people is Mr Darling admitted there was a problem and the problem would likely mean people with savings would hold off making big purchases. The solution he proposed was a temporary cut in VAT to 15%. When the Coalition took power they didn't just let VAT return to 17.5%, they increased it to 20% with Cameron saying many countries in Europe already had 20% VAT.

A bit creepy that Miliband kept asking people for their names; maybe so that the party can track down these awful off-message members of the public and go round to "readjust" their options like they tried with Gillian Duffy last time

It's actually more professional to say "Coming back to the point James made earlier", than "Coming back to the point the gentleman over there made earlier."

 

[Tetchytyke]

The referendum we had was a choice of keep the current system or change to alternative vote. A lot of people wanted a change to proportional representation (which was the Lib Dem's preferred option) but that wasn't an option on the paper due to the Conservatives being the party most likely to lose out as a result of proportional representation.

I think there were different ways of looking at it.

My view is that the "no" vote was taken to mean "no to electoral reform", not "no to AV". I think it would have been much easier to push for AV to become PR than it would for FPTP to become PR.

It depends how you define "lose out". The Tories tend to get slightly higher shares of the popular vote than Labour do, relative to the number of seats they win, so PR would help them compared to Labour.

I think the issue is that both the two main parties didn't want to move away from FPTP, because that system effectively creates a two-party system. Both parties know they will get their "turn" in office sooner rather than later, but with PR they'd always have to work with another party.

You're seeing that issue with Miliband, who doesn't want to work with another party. It's refreshing to see he won't chase power for power's sake, although I think his stance is more about propping up the lame duck Jim Murphy in Scotland than anything else.
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A bit creepy that Miliband kept asking people for their names; maybe so that the party can track down these awful off-message members of the public and go round to "readjust" their options like they tried with Gillian Duffy last time

Gordon Brown's only mistake with Gillian Duffy was grovelling to her: his first assessment of her was pretty much spot-on.

I think it's common courtesy to ask someone's name, so that you can reply to them by name. It's something you see good managers do in meetings and seminars.

 

[northwichcat]

You're seeing that issue with Miliband, who doesn't want to work with another party. It's refreshing to see he won't chase power for power's sake, although I think his stance is more about propping up the lame duck Jim Murphy in Scotland than anything else.

Before the last election Brown was agreeing a lot with Nick Clegg. It almost sounded like he'd admitted defeat in trying to get a Labour majority but thought he could convince Clegg that the Lib Dems are more like Labour than the Conservatives, so Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems but then it meant Labour lost what what usually have been safe seats to the Tories.

I don't think either Miliband or Cameron wants to make the same mistake. If Miliband said he'd be willing to form a Coalition with the SNP now then he could lose support and the Conservatives could gain support in England from people who want to keep out the SNP.

 

[table38]

I think it's common courtesy to ask someone's name, so that you can reply to them by name. It's something you see good managers do in meetings and seminars.

But a meeting or seminar is a bit different to demanding someone's name on TV in front of 4 million viewers! What if the MOP preferred to remain anonymous? I'd actually think it was good manners not to put the questioner on the spot like Miliband did

 

[Tetchytyke]

But a meeting or seminar is a bit different to demanding someone's name on TV in front of 4 million viewers! What if the MOP preferred to remain anonymous?

Shy bairns don't stick their hand up to ask a question on Question Time.

When I've been at big conferences it's standard practice to say who you are and what sector you work in before asking a question. Much better than "the gentleman with the enormous...tie".

 

[northwichcat]

But a meeting or seminar is a bit different to demanding someone's name on TV in front of 4 million viewers! What if the MOP preferred to remain anonymous? I'd actually think it was good manners not to put the questioner on the spot like Miliband did

David Dimbleby gave the names of people who had put their names down to ask questions. However, for the follow-up questions where people put their hands up to ask he didn't have their names available.

 

[Johnuk123]

Gordon Brown's only mistake with Gillian Duffy was grovelling to her: his first assessment of her was pretty much spot-on.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-transcript

The Gordon Brown and Gillian Duffy transcript

I cannot see anything in what she said to label her a bigot.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/28/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-transcript

I cannot see anything in what she said to label her a bigot.

She was bigotted against Eastern Europeans specifically, not any other Europeans or other nationalities, why? Because she was a bigot by it's very definition. Media bias to the Tory party tries to make everything look different or outrageous at every opportunity if it helps their cause.

If I complained about one specific group, say East Asians or South Americans surely that is being biggoted is it not? Also many people have recently said "I'm not racist but..." then always say something racist and get away with it, and other bigots say "why don't you speak English" then use freedom of speech to say it's okay forgetting it covers the other person too. All this biggotry needs to stop.

 

[Johnuk123]

She was bigotted against Eastern Europeans specifically, not any other Europeans or other nationalities, why? Because she was a bigot by it's very definition. Media bias to the Tory party tries to make everything look different or outrageous at every opportunity if it helps their cause.

If I complained about one specific group, say East Asians or South Americans surely that is being biggoted is it not?

but all these eastern European what are coming in, where are they flocking from?

Nothing bigoted in asking that question at all.

 

[table38]

Sure. It was much easier for Gordon Brown to label her as a bigot and move on, rather than listen to and engage intelligently with her concerns

Makes you wonder why they were all so keen to get round to her house and apologise!

 

[Johnuk123]

Sure. It was much easier for Gordon Brown to label her as a bigot and move on, rather than listen to and engage intelligently with her concerns

Makes you wonder why they were all so keen to get round to her house and apologise!

Brown should have called her a bigot to her face but of course he hadn't the backbone to do that.

 

[me123]

Nothing bigoted in asking that question at all.

Although it was a pretty stupid question.

..but all these eastern European what are coming in, where are they flocking from?

I'll give you three guesses...

 

[Tetchytyke]

Nothing bigoted in asking that question at all.

Depends on your opinion, doesn't it. Naturally you're not going to see it as bigoted.

I think it was and I think Brown got his assessment of her right the first time.

And I think the apologising was just Labour PR's usual blind panic, as you saw when Miliband sacked Emily Thornberry.

 

[Johnuk123]

Although it was a pretty stupid question.

Yes it doesn't make sense but still no need to label a perfectly decent woman a bigot.
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Depends on your opinion, doesn't it. Naturally you're not going to see it as bigoted.

I think it was and I think Brown got his assessment of her right the first time.

And I think the apologising was just Labour PR's usual blind panic, as you saw when Miliband sacked Emily Thornberry.

Well naturally you are going to see anybody who even mentions immigration as a bigot.

Emily Thornberry - wasn't bigoted at all by ridiculing a white van man and his St George's flag.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Well naturally you are going to see anybody who even mentions immigration as a bigot.

Most anti-immigrant sentiment is basically xenophobia.

 

[Johnuk123]

The apologising was just Labour PR's usual blind panic, as you saw when Miliband sacked Emily Thornberry.

If you think Milliband is not capable of making a decision on his own it doesn't say much for his ambition to be p.m.

 

[northwichcat]

Julie Tempest, standing as an Independent Councillor in the Cheshire East election used a photo of herself pictured with George Osborne in her election flyer. She received a letter from a barrister representing Osborne threatening to have her disqualified as a candidate for using the photo.

http://www.knutsfordguardian.co.uk/...ent_candidate_in_Knutsford_with_electoral_ban

Although, Osborne used a picture of him with local businesswoman Sarah Flannery in his election flyer. Ms Flannery stood as an Independent against Osborne in the last election, so I wonder whether she could threaten to have Osborne disqualified as a candidate?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Brown should have called her a bigot to her face but of course he hadn't the backbone to do that.

That seems a very interpretation to put on it. Whatever you might think of Gordon Brown's 'bigot' comment (and personally, I think it was stupid and wrong for him to say it, and it appears to show a somewhat judgemental attitude that I couldn't support), it was made as a private remark in the belief that no one other than his close aides could hear it. I'm sure just everyone has said things in private that they would not say in public, either because it would be impolite, or would hurt other people's feelings, or because it's something said in the heat of the moment that the person saying it actually doesn't seriously believe. Would you accuse everyone who makes remarks in private but not in public of not having the backbone? (If so, that would probably be basically the entire population of the World!)

There's no way to know for sure what Gordon Brown's feelings actually were. Are you sure you're not putting an extra-uncharitable interpretation on his possible motives because he happens to be a Labour politician?

Incidentally, Gillian Duffy has publically stated that she'll be voting Labour this time round

 

[Johnuk123]

There's no way to know for sure what Gordon Brown's feelings actually were. Are you sure you're not putting an extra-uncharitable interpretation on his possible motives because he happens to be a Labour politician?

This forum is absolutely packed with anti Tory and anti Ukip remarks 24/7 because the make-up of the posters is predominately left of centre.

If anybody makes a charitable remark about either party they face a backlash of criticism. When a labour politician makes an offensive remark why should he be above criticism.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Nothing bigoted in asking that question at all.

It is when the answer is so obvisiously Eastern Europe. Why pick on them like they're one single group?
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Depends on your opinion, doesn't it. Naturally you're not going to see it as bigoted.

I think it was and I think Brown got his aissessment of her right the first time.

And I think the apologising was just Labour PR's usual blind panic, as you saw when Miliband sacked Emily Thornberry.

I feel the same about Duffy.

 

[northwichcat]

The young lady who asked Ed Miliband an awkward question at last night's Question Time is a member of LUU Conservatives (LUU standing for Leeds University Union) who Labour believe was a plant.

https://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/IMG_1796.png

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

If you think Milliband is not capable of making a decision on his own it doesn't say much for his ambition to be p.m.

Miliband (1 "L") has ambition. It is proven by the fact he stabbed his own brother in the back for the top job!

 

[Tetchytyke]

The young lady who asked Ed Miliband an awkward question at last night's Question Time is a member of LUU Conservatives (LUU standing for Leeds University Union) who Labour believe was a plant.

She's not the only one.

The "undecided small business owner" Catherine Shuttleworth was the other. She was completely neutral, as the BBC assured us. Except that, er, she's a business partner of the Tory MP for Harrogate and, double er, she's a Conservative who signed the dodgy "small business" letter in last week's Telegraph.

And to think people claim the BBC- run by an arms-dealing investment banker- are "communist"!
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This forum is absolutely packed with anti Tory and anti Ukip remarks 24/7 because the make-up of the posters is predominately left of centre.

If you listen carefully, you can just make out the sound of the world's smallest violin playing the world's saddest song.

 

[CC 72100]

So is the problem that there is Conservative-supporting member of the audience? Is that a surprise?

I imagine that in the audience there are Conservative supporters gunning for Ed, Labour supporters waiting to attack Cameron, UKIP supporters waiting to attack the lot of them etc - the audience for the last debate was a cross-section of voters, which meant soime neutrals, some Labour supports, some Conservative supports.

Or were you expecting an audience of 250 complete undecided neutrals?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Nothing bigoted in asking that question at all.

It's implying it's a bad thing. That is bigoted.

I do find it amusing that people always seem to deny something is bigotry when it's something they personally agree with. And yes I know you didn't say it outright John (and you're probably going to demand some sort of apology with your usual faux-outrage), but you have expressed similar sentiments before.

It sounds to me like you're just uncomfortable with Eastern Europeans vs. British people.