General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[DarloRich]

What's odd about loving your country? What's odd about wanting to have freedom of choice? What's odd about not having to be told what you can and can't say or do?

I will admit that you're from a left wing area Darlo but for certain, some people want to live in a democracy - you might not, but I do and you'll have to accept this for a fact.

You may not like what I say but the fact is, is that a lot of lefties cannot seem to grasp, want to understand or even accept that fact that this country is on the verge of bankrupcy.

After the 1st January 2017 we will no longer be able to pull out of the EU unless we get a Qualified Majority Voting, this means that if one country objects to us leaving we are effectively stuck in the EU. From the 1st January 2020 we are forced to use the Euro whether we like it or not. The Pound Sterling will become an illegal tender and will cease to exist.

These are facts, sadly a lot on here won't or can't seem to grasp anything unless its printed in a particular left wing paper.


You have to remember that Labour ruined the education in this country and used it as a tool for a propaganda drive to attempt to warp the minds of the young, luckily it didn't affect me as much as I refused to buy into any left wing twaddle.

Labour also took this country into an illegal war, stole off the people through expenses, covered up paedophilia (such as the Rotherham Scandal and the goings on at the BBC with Jimmy Savile) and almost brought this country to near bankrupcy.

So before you spout off DarloRich saying that I'm an odd individual, why don't you open your mind and your eyes to see what really is going on with Labour.

Christ this is like some mad conspiracy theorists wet dream! I cant even understand what you are on about.

You have some serious issues. Get some help. Before you do perhaps you could provide some links to reputable sources for some of your wild accusations.

 

[TheKnightWho]

The weirdest thing is that some of those things wouldn't even be bad for the country if they happened, unless you're some swivel-eyed loon thinking all those immigrants are out to steal your freedoms whilst they get benefits in the form of burnt British flags or something.

The thing about being told what you can and can't say or do is that right-wing people who get so uppity about it never seem to apply the same standards to their own behaviour: they're awfully keen to tell the rest of us what we can say or do.

 

[CC 72100]

Oh no - I'll have different coins in my pocket, and I might have to look at a different flag occasionally. I'm quaking in my boots! And you talk of freedom - I'm really struggling to see how my freedoms are being taken away by either of those things, unless you mean the freedom to ignore those pesky people who need state assistance and the like.

Christ - and they call lefties deluded...

I can't see any of that happening, but joining the Eurozone isn't a light thing to take - hypothetical question considering you certainly seem to see the issue as a non-issue: would you join the eurozone right now? No chance from me!

 

[TheKnightWho]

I can't see any of that happening, but joining the Eurozone isn't a light thing to take - hypothetical question considering you certainly seem to see the issue as a non-issue: would you join the eurozone right now? No chance from me!

It isn't a light issue at all, but when I see someone rambling about our flag and our freedoms when they talk about the pound I'm less inclined to give a serious answer.

 

[CC 72100]

It isn't a light issue at all, but when I see someone rambling about our flag and our freedoms when they talk about the pound I'm less inclined to give a serious answer.

Fair enough - I think our separation from the eurozone has been an advantage for the UK in the economic recovery, and while I'm pro-EU, I'd certainly be anti-Eurozone.

 

[muddythefish]

What's odd about loving your country? What's odd about wanting to have freedom of choice? What's odd about not having to be told what you can and can't say or do?

I will admit that you're from a left wing area Darlo but for certain, some people want to live in a democracy - you might not, but I do and you'll have to accept this for a fact.

You may not like what I say but the fact is, is that a lot of lefties cannot seem to grasp, want to understand or even accept that fact that this country is on the verge of bankrupcy.

After the 1st January 2017 we will no longer be able to pull out of the EU unless we get a Qualified Majority Voting, this means that if one country objects to us leaving we are effectively stuck in the EU. From the 1st January 2020 we are forced to use the Euro whether we like it or not. The Pound Sterling will become an illegal tender and will cease to exist.

These are facts, sadly a lot on here won't or can't seem to grasp anything unless its printed in a particular left wing paper.


You have to remember that Labour ruined the education in this country and used it as a tool for a propaganda drive to attempt to warp the minds of the young, luckily it didn't affect me as much as I refused to buy into any left wing twaddle.

Labour also took this country into an illegal war, stole off the people through expenses, covered up paedophilia (such as the Rotherham Scandal and the goings on at the BBC with Jimmy Savile) and almost brought this country to near bankrupcy.

So before you spout off DarloRich saying that I'm an odd individual, why don't you open your mind and your eyes to see what really is going on with Labour.

Are you ill ?

 

[507021]

You may not like what I say but the fact is, is that a lot of lefties cannot seem to grasp, want to understand or even accept that fact that this country is on the verge of bankrupcy.

If this is the case I would accept it but to blame Labour for it is ridiculous. They have been in opposition for the last five years and when Labour left government in 2010 this country was in no danger whatsoever of bankruptcy

Labour almost brought this country to near bankrupcy.

Suggesting that Labour brought the country to near bankruptcy is rubbish. There was a global financial crisis at the time prior to the 2010 General Election which no government could have prevented. In the last five years the Coalition government has borrowed more money than Labour borrowed in the thirteen years they were in government. This has actually almost doubled the deficit rather than halved it

 

[Oswyntail]

...Suggesting that Labour brought the country to near bankruptcy is rubbish.

That is not a "fact", it is a matter of opinion, on which economists are divided. The chief defence of Labour seems to be...

...There was a global financial crisis at the time prior to the 2010 General Election which no government could have prevented.

Yes, but the mark of a responsible government is how they prepare for such external crises, and how they handle them when they arrive. In my opinion, Labour did both poorly

... In the last five years the Coalition government has borrowed more money than Labour borrowed in the thirteen years they were in government. This has actually almost doubled the deficit rather than halved it

You have obviously never had experience of clearing off a maxed-out credit card.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You may not like what I say but the fact is, is that a lot of lefties cannot seem to grasp, want to understand or even accept that fact that this country is on the verge of bankrupcy.

After the 1st January 2017 we will no longer be able to pull out of the EU unless we get a Qualified Majority Voting, this means that if one country objects to us leaving we are effectively stuck in the EU. From the 1st January 2020 we are forced to use the Euro whether we like it or not. The Pound Sterling will become an illegal tender and will cease to exist.

These are facts, sadly a lot on here won't or can't seem to grasp anything unless its printed in a particular left wing paper.

Please provide a source for your "facts".

Labour also took this country into an illegal war, stole off the people through expenses, covered up paedophilia (such as the Rotherham Scandal and the goings on at the BBC with Jimmy Savile) and almost brought this country to near bankrupcy.

Out of interest, do you make your hats yourself out of Bacofoil, or do you get them ready made?

Just to clarify a few little things though:

1. MPs of all parties exploited the expenses system to their own advantage. I wouldn't want to attack any particular party about it.
2. Jimmy Savile had an exceptionally close relationship with Margaret Thatcher, who I don't think was a Labour PM.
3. What has the BBC got to do with any political party? Although it should be noted that the BBC Chair of Trustees at the time the scandal came out was Chris Patten, former Conservative Party chairman.

 

[northwichcat]

2. Jimmy Savile had an exceptionally close relationship with Margaret Thatcher, who I don't think was a Labour PM.

A number of abuse allegations were reported against teachers in the 1980s. Instead of charges being brought against teachers (which included Fred Talbot) they were asked to leave the teaching profession.

Documents also revealed Thatcher's government covered up allegations relating to Cyril Smith, as well as South Yorkshire Police.

It seems Teachers, MPs and Police officers were untouchable when Thatcher was in charge, whatever they did. On the other hand making untrue allegations about people who died in football related tragedies was allowed.

 

[GaryMcEwan]

All you lot down south have had it easy, in a fortnight's time if the polls stay the same, you'll know what it's like to have the SNP running the shop....

 

[northwichcat]

You have to remember that Labour ruined the education in this country and used it as a tool for a propaganda drive to attempt to warp the minds of the young, luckily it didn't affect me as much as I refused to buy into any left wing twaddle.

Erm if the Tories hadn't removed Michael Gove from his position there would have been no proper teachers left, just 'academy teachers' who aren't properly qualified. Although, I imagine some in the party would have liked that - no NUT members anymore.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

All you lot down south have had it easy, in a fortnight's time if the polls stay the same, you'll know what it's like to have the SNP running the shop....

Latest poll results predict:

Labour: 271 seats
Conservatives: 270 seats
SNP: 55 seats
Lib Dems: 28 seats
UKIP: 4 seats
Greens: 1 seat
Others: 21 seats

326 are needed for a majority government.

 

[CC 72100]

And of course what would 271 and 55 make?! You've guessed it, the magical 326.

 

[northwichcat]

And of course what would 271 and 55 make?! You've guessed it, the magical 326.

Indeed. However, the Lib Dems getting 1 extra seat and Labour getting 1 less would mean a 2 party Coalition can't get 326.

Although, a smaller number might be able to form a minority government if they can survive a confidence vote. Personally I'd predict surviving a confidence vote would be easier if the minority was free of SNPs and Tories.

Out of interest, how many independents and MPs from smaller parties currently in parliament are former Labour and how many are former Conservative? While Mr Galloway may have left Labour I imagine he would be more like to vote in Labour's favour than in the Tory's favour.

 

[telstarbox]

With the smaller parties on the rise, will this be the first election where a candidate is elected with < 25% of the vote? At the last election Simon Wright (Lib Dem, Norwich South) got in on 29.4%.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Indeed. However, the Lib Dems getting 1 extra seat and Labour getting 1 less would mean a 2 party Coalition can't get 326.

Although, a smaller number might be able to form a minority government if they can survive a confidence vote. Personally I'd predict surviving a confidence vote would be easier if the minority was free of SNPs and Tories.

Out of interest, how many independents and MPs from smaller parties currently in parliament are former Labour and how many are former Conservative? While Mr Galloway may have left Labour I imagine he would be more like to vote in Labour's favour than in the Tory's favour.

A coalition with a NI party bolted or a 3-way coalition with the LibDems would be interesting. Especially with fixed-term parliaments like we currently have.

Might finally pave the way for election reform, considering the last vestige of FPTP is that it provides "strong governments". A euphemism for undemocratic if I ever heard one, and it's not even true anymore.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
On a completely different note, here are a few amusing articles: what happens if you put manifestos through the computer game Democracy 3? (A very good game from what I've played of it, too.)

Labour

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats

They'll do other parties over the coming days.

 

[northwichcat]

A coalition with a NI party bolted or a 3-way coalition with the LibDems would be interesting. Especially with fixed-term parliaments like we currently have.

Might finally pave the way for election reform, considering the last vestige of FPTP is that it provides "strong governments". A euphemism for undemocratic if I ever heard one, and it's not even true anymore.

I could see a Labour + Lib Dem + Green Coalition working, with Labour being able to implement around 85% of it's manifesto, the Lib Dems around 15% and the Greens 0% BUT being able to push Labour and the Lib Dems further than they would have gone. For instance, Labour want a £8 minimum wage and the Greens want a £10 one so the Greens may be able to push to get a £8.25 or £8.50 minimum wage and if they did that it would show they could have an influence as a minority party in government.

Any other 3 way party Coalition I can't see working.

 

[Tetchytyke]

326 are needed for a majority government.

Historically you could get away with about 322 because Sinn Fein don't show up.

Some experts think that Sinn Fein might show up this time- to stop the DUP having influence- so that's more complication to add in.

 

[507021]

That is not a "fact", it is a matter of opinion, on which economists are divided. The chief defence of Labour seems to be...

The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (which was formed after the Coalition came into government) Robert Chote said on live television in 2012 that this country was not at risk of bankruptcy in 2010

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/12/obr-head-rebukes-osborne-uk-was-never-risk-bankruptcy

Yes, but the mark of a responsible government is how they prepare for such external crises, and how they handle them when they arrive. In my opinion, Labour did both poorly

The former Governor of the Bank of England said that no single government in the world could have foreseen a financial crisis on that scale or made sufficient preparations for it

http://www.theguardian.com/business...sible-crash-bank-england-governor-mervyn-king

You have obviously never had experience of clearing off a maxed-out credit card.

No I haven't - but the fact is despite Tory claims that they have halved the deficit - the national debt has actually doubled. Despite all of the cuts made in the last five years in order to save money the national debt has increased further. The coalition has had five years to reduce the deficit and they have failed

 

[northwichcat]

No I haven't - but the fact is despite Tory claims that they have halved the deficit - the national debt has actually doubled. Despite all of the cuts made in the last five years in order to save money the national debt has increased further. The coalition has had five years to reduce the deficit and they have failed

And before the last election we would have presumed the manifestos would have been delivered within 4 years with elections usually being every 4 years. That needs to be remembered when politicians claim things such as the personal allowance for income tax has gone up beyond £10,000 (it was £10,000 4 years after the government was formed, which was what the Lib Dem manifesto promised.)

 

[Oswyntail]

The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (which was formed after the Coalition came into government) Robert Chote said on live television in 2012 that this country was not at risk of bankruptcy in 2010

As I said, economists differ. And there is a difference between being nearly bankrupt and being at risk of bankruptcy.

The former Governor of the Bank of England said that no single government in the world could have foreseen a financial crisis on that scale or made sufficient preparations for it

Well he would say that, wouldn't he? But, of course, he was talking about the scale. A financial crisis had been predicted for years, and most predicted a severe one. Government preparations to face it were roughly nil.

No I haven't - but the fact is despite Tory claims that they have halved the deficit - the national debt has actually doubled. Despite all of the cuts made in the last five years in order to save money the national debt has increased further. The coalition has had five years to reduce the deficit and they have failed

Debt is not deficit; deficit is not debt.

 

[TheNewNo2]

It would spell disaster if Lab-Lib-SNP-Plaid coalition was formed. As by 2020 Britain will be forced to join the Euro (google it) and it'll be bye bye to the Pound, our freedom and the flag.

I honestly can't see us joining the Euro for quite a long time, simply because the financial collapse showed how flawed a proposition it is. The pound, the dollar and other independent currencies work because they have a single economy for a single currency. If you get into trouble you can print money (quantitative easing) or devalue it as necessary. The problem with the Euro is you have one currency but 20 economies, which, while linked, are significantly different. Monetary policy can only be implemented on a Eurozone level, but economic policy on a national level. This means that you have the lacklustre economies of Spain and Italy pegged to the prices of the stalwart German economy, which makes their crisis that much worse.

That is not a "fact", it is a matter of opinion, on which economists are divided. The chief defence of Labour seems to be... Yes, but the mark of a responsible government is how they prepare for such external crises, and how they handle them when they arrive. In my opinion, Labour did both poorlyYou have obviously never had experience of clearing off a maxed-out credit card.

Balancing a household budget, or indeed a credit card, is significantly different to national monetary policy. You cannot arbitrarily increase the spending limit on your credit card, which countries can, nor can you decide to just create extra money, which countries can, and you can't continually run a deficit either, which countries can.

No I haven't - but the fact is despite Tory claims that they have halved the deficit - the national debt has actually doubled. Despite all of the cuts made in the last five years in order to save money the national debt has increased further. The coalition has had five years to reduce the deficit and they have failed

Deficit and debt are different terms. Deficit is how much your outgoings are greater than your income, debt is the accumulation of that. One can halve the deficit while doubling the debt. Since this is a rail forum, think of the deficit as how fast you're going, and the debt as how far you've come.

 

[Oswyntail]

...
Balancing a household budget, or indeed a credit card, is significantly different to national monetary policy.

Indeed, but the simplistic point I was attempting to show was that you can be paying off the original debt, but the amount owing increases. There comes a tipping point when it all becomes easier. Too simplistc, I know

 

[ExRes]

I could see a Labour + Lib Dem + Green Coalition working, with Labour being able to implement around 85% of it's manifesto, the Lib Dems around 15% and the Greens 0% BUT being able to push Labour and the Lib Dems further than they would have gone. For instance, Labour want a £8 minimum wage and the Greens want a £10 one so the Greens may be able to push to get a £8.25 or £8.50 minimum wage and if they did that it would show they could have an influence as a minority party in government.

Any other 3 way party Coalition I can't see working.

I have very little time for the Lib Dems as it is, but surely even Clegg couldn't consider getting into bed with Labour immediately after ending his rather rocky tryst with the Conservatives

 

[northwichcat]

I have very little time for the Lib Dems as it is, but surely even Clegg couldn't consider getting into bed with Labour immediately after ending his rather rocky tryst with the Conservatives

I disagree.

The Lib Dems really are in between the Tories and Labour when it comes to policy. Backing Labour could regain support they lost from backing the Tories. The Lib Dems did talk to Labour after the last election but Gordon Brown told them he wanted their backing but he wanted to implement the Labour manifesto in full with no room for revision to suit the Lib Dems. On the other hand the Tories agreed to implement part of the Lib Dem manifesto and to not implement a couple of the plans the Lib Dems didn't like. Hence they formed a Coalition with the Conservatives.

 

[me123]

^ Whilst Nick Clegg may want to form a coalition with Labour (if indeed he gets the chance to do so), I'm not convinced that Labour necessarily want to ally themselves with the Lib Dems - I think they'd be keen to distance themselves from the last government in all its forms.

 

[Butts]

I could see a Labour + Lib Dem + Green Coalition working, with Labour being able to implement around 85% of it's manifesto, the Lib Dems around 15% and the Greens 0% BUT being able to push Labour and the Lib Dems further than they would have gone. For instance, Labour want a £8 minimum wage and the Greens want a £10 one so the Greens may be able to push to get a £8.25 or £8.50 minimum wage and if they did that it would show they could have an influence as a minority party in government.

Any other 3 way party Coalition I can't see working.

Are you having a giraffe

Do you think The Greens are going to have more than one or two seats - Miliband won't need those "deranged tree huggers"

 

[northwichcat]

Are you having a giraffe

Do you think The Greens are going to have more than one or two seats - Miliband won't need those "deranged tree huggers"

Remember after the last election when Labour + Lib Dems had just short of the required number of seats to form a parliament and there was talk about a few of the smaller parties to get the required number? One or two seats could make the difference between forming a government and having to have a repeat election.

 

[kylemore]

All you lot down south have had it easy, in a fortnight's time if the polls stay the same, you'll know what it's like to have the SNP running the shop....

Yes and you'll love it!

 

[Tetchytyke]

As I said, economists differ. And there is a difference between being nearly bankrupt and being at risk of bankruptcy

That sounds like arguing over semantics to me.

Everyone is at some risk of bankruptcy. The point is that it wasn't likely.

I find the argument "Labour should have forseen the crash" as a bizarre argument, given that the main reason for the crash (according to the Tories) was poor regulation of the finance sector. The fact the Tories were constantly haranguing Labour for "too much red tape" in the finance sector, and that there needs to be less regulation in the sector, appears to have been quietly forgotten, in much the same way negative comments on Wikipedia about Grant Schapps/Michael Green get quietly forgotten.