General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Oswyntail]

...However, it's a very short term plan because, as has been pointed out, the clash will occur again at the next scheduled election in 2020, and every 20 years thereafter. .....

Doesn't that assume that Scotland will not have achieved independence by then? (Or, for completeness' sake, that the Scotland Act has not been repealed)

 

[me123]

Doesn't that assume that Scotland will not have achieved independence by then?

I think it's unlikely, but we can dream...

 

[Tony2215]

A vote for UKIP is a vote for the NSDAP.

Don't you mean a vote for UKIP is a vote for the torys. Vote Labour and you can pay for it later

 

[St Rollox]

So where exactly in England is Trident going?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Since there are four submarines, shouldn't we rename it Quadrant?

 

[ainsworth74]

So where exactly in England is Trident going?

Nowhere as the submarines will be staying right where they are? Well, apart from when they need to go to sea, then they'll be somewhere else. But they'll still come home to Faslane...

Since there are four submarines, shouldn't we rename it Quadrant?

Har har

In case anyone else is confused the missiles are called Trident, the submarines (the current ones anyone) are Vanguard class. The replacements are currently, rather imaginatively, called 'Successor' :roll: One hopes they might manage something a bit better once we actually start ordering the damn things.

 

[me123]

So where exactly in England is Trident going?

Nowhere. Too many NIMBYs in England, wouldn't want to get them up in arms about nuclear subs near their children now, would we (insert Daily Mail cancer article here)? On the other hand, Weegies are always going to vote Labour so no-one's going to lose/gain any votes if we base them on the Clyde.

Or that certainly was the case, could well be looking at a different political landscape in about a month!

 

[Butts]

So where exactly in England is Trident going?

Barrow-In-Furness would be a logical choice with it's existing Submarine Connections.

Plus it is a complete dump

 

[ainsworth74]

Nowhere. Too many NIMBYs in England, wouldn't want to get them up in arms about nuclear subs near their children now, would we (insert Daily Mail cancer article here)? On the other hand, Weegies are always going to vote Labour so no-one's going to lose/gain any votes if we base them on the Clyde.

Yes I'm sure that was the main criteria when they were deciding where to base Polaris back in the 1960s. 'Oh the silly Scots won't care so we put it there a nice long way away from any proper Englishmen!'. Yeah that seems about right for the evil English, who cares about that HMNB Clyde is in a easily defensible position, allows easy access to a deep water and at the time was close by a US Navy submarine base in Holy Loch?

I suppose this is why all the V-Bombers and their weapons were located in Scotland along with all the research, development and weapon storage and production facilities. Only they weren't and aren't. The V-Bombers were based throughout the UK and the R&D and production was handled in England along with materials storage and some warhead storage.

You'll forgive me for not buying the argument that Polaris and then Trident were located in Scotland because 'who cares about the Scots'...

 

[Tetchytyke]

You'll forgive me for not buying the argument that Polaris and then Trident were located in Scotland because 'who cares about the Scots'...

Agreed. They're at Faslane for historical strategic reasons.

I can't really think of anywhere in England that would be as good for them, both in terms of access to the Atlantic and in terms of defensibility. Somewhere on the Furness peninsula is pretty much the only place, and that's not ideal for defence.

Coming from up there, I know plenty in Barrow would welcome the subs with open arms.

 

[St Rollox]

Nowhere. Too many NIMBYs in England, wouldn't want to get them up in arms about nuclear subs near their children now, would we (insert Daily Mail cancer article here)? On the other hand, Weegies are always going to vote Labour so no-one's going to lose/gain any votes if we base them on the Clyde.

Or that certainly was the case, could well be looking at a different political landscape in about a month!

If the British Labour Party wish to form a government that can last
more than 5 minutes then part of the deal for SNP help might well be moving the WMD out of Scotland.

 

[yorksrob]

Given Scotland's wobbly commitment to the UK, it might be strategically beneficial to move the submarine base South sooner, rather than later.

 

[St Rollox]

Agreed. They're at Faslane for historical strategic reasons.

I can't really think of anywhere in England that would be as good for them, both in terms of access to the Atlantic and in terms of defensibility. Somewhere on the Furness peninsula is pretty much the only place, and that's not ideal for defence.

Coming from up there, I know plenty in Barrow would welcome the subs with open arms.

Probably do those on the Left in the North of England a favour if the WMD were dumped there.
Certainly give them a major issue to fight for if WMD are sitting so close to Liverpool and Manchester.

 

[DarloRich]

So where exactly in England is Trident going?

Faslane - even if you get independence

Am i the only pro Trident person in the world not in government?

 

[sprinterguy]

Am i the only pro Trident person in the world not in government?

Nope, there's a few of us around. Slightly vested interest as one of my mates works with our nuclear subs, but within my social circle we're generally in agreement with the overall policy.

 

[St Rollox]

Faslane - even if you get independence

I'd be happy to go with Home Rule/Federalism for now.
Long term the Scottish Labour Party will probably move to that position unless they want to go into the political wilderness.
Funny to think Tony Blair kicked this all off within months of winning the 1997 election when he called a referendum in Scotland.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I'd be happy to go with Home Rule/Federalism for now.
Long term the Scottish Labour Party will probably move to that position unless they want to go into the political wilderness.

I'm not quite so certain about this. I think much of the support for the SNP, and support for independence, is nothing more than dissatisfaction at the "mainstream" political parties. The Tories have shafted the poor for years, Labour have done nothing better, and the last great hope for change- the Lib Dems- are now even more tarnished than the Tories.

The votes for the SNP and Plaid Cymru are being driven from the same place as the votes for UKIP and the Greens.

If Labour start looking after normal people, rather than courting the bankers, the votes will probably come back to them. It wouldn't harm them to bin Jim Murphy, mind.

 

[St Rollox]

Having went through the whole Scottish referendum calling a whole section of your own support morons and much worse i don't how Labour wins back tens of thousands of voters like me back.
Outside of a personal apology from the entire Labour leadership their lost to me forever.
Not much point about shouting about the big bad Tories when they were happy to stand shoulder to shoulder with them in Better Together for a couple of years.
Having watched the Scottish Tories spending 40 years self destruct by sounding as though their every remark was an attack on the locals, Labour now sound exactly the same.
Not a word about socialism.
Socialism is a dirty word.

I never left Labour, they left me.

 

[yorksrob]

Having went through the whole Scottish referendum calling a whole section of your own support morons and much worse i don't how Labour wins back tens of thousands of voters like me back.
Outside of a personal apology from the entire Labour leadership their lost to me forever.
Not much point about shouting about the big bad Tories when they were happy to stand shoulder to shoulder with them in Better Together for a couple of years.
Having watched the Scottish Tories spending 40 years self destruct by sounding as though their every remark was an attack on the locals, Labour now sound exactly the same.
Not a word about socialism.
Socialism is a dirty word.

I never left Labour, they left me.

The Scottish Independence referendum was about the policy of separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom. Would you not have expected parties opposing that policy to have stood together on that issue?

 

[St Rollox]

The Scottish Independence referendum was about the policy of separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom. Would you not have expected parties opposing that policy to have stood together on that issue?

True enough and it might well explain why Labour is hanging on by it's fingertips in Scotland.
A few Labour MPs will be looking for new jobs come May because of their closeness to the Tories.
If there was a loser in the referendum then it's the Labour Party.
David Cameron must be laughing.

 

[yorksrob]

True enough and it might well explain why Labour is hanging on by it's fingertips in Scotland.
A few Labour MPs will be looking for new jobs come May because of their closeness to the Tories.
If there was a loser in the referendum then it's the Labour Party.
David Cameron must be laughing.

Indeed. The Tories must be.

 

[Johnuk123]

Interesting that the SNP hate nuclear weapons and don't want them on their soil but are quite happy to shelter under the NATO nuclear umbrella.

Yesterday their defence spokesman had to admit this after being forced to, and also said that as soon as Scotland got rid of them other countries would follow suit.

When pressed which countries would disarm he hadn't any idea he couldn't name one.

The SNP are unashamed hypocrites.

 

[radamfi]

Very few countries have nuclear weapons, so are all those countries without them unsafe to live in?

 

[Johnuk123]

Very few countries have nuclear weapons, so are all those countries without them unsafe to live in?

Irrelevant, Ukraine got rid of its nuclear weapons 20 odd years ago and has now been invaded by Russia, I imagine Putin might have at least hesitated if Ukraine still had them.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Irrelevant, Ukraine got rid of its nuclear weapons 20 odd years ago and has now been invaded by Russia, I imagine Putin might have at least hesitated if Ukraine still had them.

Yes - that big evil Russia about to invade the UK! Terrifying! I'm quaking in my boots.

What if I move to Germany? Am I in more danger from Russia all of a sudden? Or, you know, do I remember that the UK and Germany are in NATO and that the chances of an assault on any NATO country is effectively nil, whether they personally own nuclear weapons or not.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Having went through the whole Scottish referendum calling a whole section of your own support morons and much worse i don't how Labour wins back tens of thousands of voters like me back.
Outside of a personal apology from the entire Labour leadership their lost to me forever.
Not much point about shouting about the big bad Tories when they were happy to stand shoulder to shoulder with them in Better Together for a couple of years.
Having watched the Scottish Tories spending 40 years self destruct by sounding as though their every remark was an attack on the locals, Labour now sound exactly the same.
Not a word about socialism.
Socialism is a dirty word.

I never left Labour, they left me.

I don't understand this.

(a) How do you think Labour in Scotland were calling people morons? I'm based in England, not Scotland, but all the reports of the campaigns I saw involved Labour simply asking people to vote No. That doesn't seem to be the same thing at all.
(b) Why do you find it so objectionable for Labour and the Conservatives to campaign on the same side of the independence referendum if they happen to agree on that issue? It doesn't change the fact that there are many issues on which they are fundamentally opposed (in my experience, most Labour Party members feel utterly disgusted with much of what the coalition Govt has done, especially in regard to cuts in services, and policies that they perceive as helping the better off at the expense of the poor).

After all, if there's ever an EU referendum and the Conservatives decide to back staying in, then presumably the Conservatives and the SNP will both campaign on the same side. Would that cause you to refuse to vote SNP forever?

 

[PaulLothian]

It is clear to me that being a nuclear power is NOT the same as being a military power, and the UK is clearly no longer a serious military power.

Leaving aside the question of what we would require to do, and what wars we might need to become embroiled in, to achieve this status, it seems that the money spent on nuclear weapons which will probably/hopefully never be used, is a groteque waste.

A quick Google search will show a number of US sources that seem to suggest that the USA considers the UK is not pulling its weight in NATO because of the financial burden of Trident.

Building aircraft carriers without planes is rather like building a house when you have no money for a roof...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I don't understand this.

(a) How do you think Labour in Scotland were calling people morons? I'm based in England, not Scotland, but all the reports of the campaigns I saw involved Labour simply asking people to vote No. That doesn't seem to be the same thing at all.
(b) Why do you find it so objectionable for Labour and the Conservatives to campaign on the same side of the independence referendum if they happen to agree on that issue? It doesn't change the fact that there are many issues on which they are fundamentally opposed (in my experience, most Labour Party members feel utterly disgusted with much of what the coalition Govt has done, especially in regard to cuts in services, and policies that they perceive as helping the better off at the expense of the poor)...

It's my impression that many people in England were oblivious to the potential change in Scotland until just pre-referendum. The reporting south of the border was extremely limited and not showing much of the detail of discussion. It is my opinion, based on what I saw, and on many many discussions with people I met, that although there were hotheads on both sides of the debate, the official Yes campaign worked hard at positivity, while the No campaign was negative in many respects. Not least in their attitude to anyone who strayed from the current Labour orthodoxy on independence. Demeaning people for their behaviour or views is a straightforward way to ensure they don't like you, as any primary school child knows!

As for your second point, I totally agree that 'most Labour Party members feel utterly disgusted with much of what the coalition Govt has done', and it's a shame that the Party leadership isn't more active in supporting its members' views.

 

[Aldaniti]

Interesting that the SNP hate nuclear weapons and don't want them on their soil but are quite happy to shelter under the NATO nuclear umbrella.

Yesterday their defence spokesman had to admit this after being forced to, and also said that as soon as Scotland got rid of them other countries would follow suit.

When pressed which countries would disarm he hadn't any idea he couldn't name one.

The SNP are unashamed hypocrites.

I've never quite managed to work out whether the SNP hate nuclear weapons or whether in fact they just hate paying for them. The SNP know full well that HMG would never allow an independent Scotland (or Wales for that matter) to become the target of a threat for geographical reasons, so why bother making a contribution if they ever become independent? As was said above by Yorksrob, the best thing HMG could do now is to make plans to relocate them to an English base, although I understand that that is easier said than done.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I have just tuned into BBC Radio 4 in time to hear the end of a statement made by a spokesman of The Trades Union and Socialist Coalition in which he stated that they were fielding candidates in both the coming General Election and the local area elections.

Can someone with localised knowledge of this party say in which parliamentary area that they will achieve their best result in this General Election.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Irrelevant, Ukraine got rid of its nuclear weapons 20 odd years ago and has now been invaded by Russia, I imagine Putin might have at least hesitated if Ukraine still had them.

Presumably that would be based on the same reasoning by which if we'd had nuclear weapons, Argentina wouldn't have invaded the Falklands, and Russia wouldn't have provocatively flown any aircraft towards our airspace and Libya wouldn't have blown up an aeroplane over UK territory and ... oh hang on...