General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Busaholic]

Yes, Governments will try and manipulate non-fixed term parliaments. However, more often than not, it backfires on them. Both Gordon Brown and Jim Callaghan tried to play the system and ended up leaving it too long. It's better than having a long lame duck parliament.

In almost every case since the Second World War, if not before, governments have only run full term because the party in charge has realised that if they went a year early they'd be sure to lose, so they hang on just in case. The Major government of 1992-7 was a classic case of that and, at the very least, it produces paralysis in government for the last year. If we have to have fixed-term Parliaments, which I don't accept for one minute, they should be of four years not five, then our wonderful politicians could pretend they were Presidents to boot. The Conservatives can only get near power again if the SNP does as well as Ashcroft's polls predict and if most of the LibDem losses are Tory gains, which I suspect they will be, starting with the West Country.

 

[radamfi]

The Major government of 1992-7 was a classic case of that and, at the very least, it produces paralysis in government for the last year.

I don't understand the logic here. You don't like fixed term parliaments, yet you argue that Major should have been forced to call an election at a different time to the one he decided. 1987-92 went the distance too as everyone thought that Labour would win that time. Was there paralysis in the year before the 1992 election?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Perhaps. But in the years 1997-2010, the economy became dangerously reliant on the City - if you think it's the Tories who have "friends in the City", I can't imagine what the relationship with Labour is!

Well I personally would not use the 'friends in the city' argument in this context, although I know others have done. I regard the Conservatives' economic model, which appears to prioritize deficit reduction above almost all else, as dangerously oversimplistic (hence my comment about kindergarten economics), but I'm also inclined to think that on the whole, David Cameron et al are doing what they genuinely (but mistakenly) believe to be for the best.

Little attempt was made to stimulate other areas of the economy

Now that is a more compelling argument, and I'm inclined to agree with you. Successive Governments, including the last Labour Government, have not done enough there. I don't however perceive that the Conservatives' record in that regard is significantly different, which would imply that that by itself doesn't give much reason to choose to vote either for or against either party.

To clarify, my point is that the logic behind the statement of (to paraphrase) 'Labour wrecked the economy because of the deficit' is flawed. If you wish to argue that Labour wrecked the economy, then you should back that up with a range of data on growth, investment, and the overall state of the economy in comparison to other similar countries. I have the strong impression that that kind of data would not support that conclusion, though I'm open to persuasion.

 

[Busaholic]

I don't understand the logic here. You don't like fixed term parliaments, yet you argue that Major should have been forced to call an election at a different time to the one he decided. 1987-92 went the distance too as everyone thought that Labour would win that time. Was there paralysis in the year before the 1992 election?

I did say in ALMOST every case and I am prepared to concede that one on the basis I can't remember clearly enough. If you're so keen on fixed term parliaments, why not go down the rail franchise route and have 7 or even 15 year ones? Mm, thought not. Almost all fixed term parliaments in the world are of four, or fewer, years. And as you conceded yourself Major thought he was going to lose so hung on. Who would now take a bet on the next parliament lasting the full term?

 

[radamfi]

I did say in ALMOST every case and I am prepared to concede that one on the basis I can't remember clearly enough. If you're so keen on fixed term parliaments, why not go down the rail franchise route and have 7 or even 15 year ones? Mm, thought not. Almost all fixed term parliaments in the world are of four, or fewer, years. And as you conceded yourself Major thought he was going to lose so hung on. Who would now take a bet on the next parliament lasting the full term?

It sounds like you are really concerned with governments continuing for a long time, rather than the concept of the term being fixed. When governments called 'premature' elections, usually after about four years, it was because things were going relatively OK, so I can see why it may seem psychologically preferable to go before the term is up. Perhaps the alternative is to have a referendum every year to decide if there should be an election in the next year?

 

[dcsprior]

It's a fair point. Once you let non-UK wide nationalists in, how can you justify excluding non-UK wide unionists.

I must admit, I never understood the benefit of fixed term parliaments. Hopefully they'll be done away with.

Surely the logic for including SNP/Plaid is that there are voters who have the choice between the UK-wide parties and them. Therefore if the UK-wide parties are being given the free publicity that the debates bring, they should too.

The same doesn't apply to Northern Irish parties, as AFAIK none of the UK-wide parties* field candidates in Northern Ireland.

* I believe the closest is the Greens, but there are three separate Green Parties (Green Party of England and Wales, Scottish Green Party, Green Party in Northern Ireland)

I wouldn't call that gerrymandering, primarily because gerrymandering specifically refers to the manipulation of elections by redrawing the boundaries of electoral districts. There are other types of electoral fraud as well as gerrymandering, all of which have their own descriptors.

If Gerrymandering means one party using the fact they're currently in power to set constituency boundaries to give themselves an unfair advantage, then its not too much of a stretch us use it to describe them using their power to set an election date to give themselves an unfair advantage.

However I'd agree with some other posters that fixed term parliaments are a move away from this, rather than towards it.

 

[PermitToTravel]

Perhaps the alternative is to have a referendum every year to decide if there should be an election in the next year?

Yes please!!!

A low cost online poll with merely adequate security would do, as it being cheated wouldn't really compromise democracy when a full election is still subsequently being held.

Oink flap...

 

[Butts]

If there are to be debates only parties that have candidates and representation throughout Great Britain should be invited.

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP


Green Party (I hate to bring this up again) England and Wales are separate from The Scottish Party which excludes them. There is no Nationwide Green Party in a GB context.

SNP should be in a Scottish debate with their peers from The Scottish Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat.

Same in Wales with PC and their peers.

Northern Ireland Unionists, Sinn Fein, SDLP etc.

Any more than four (arguably three) participants would ensure a fiasco.

Realistically it should probably just be prospective PM's - Cameron and Milliband.

 

[yorksrob]

If there are to be debates only parties that have candidates and representation throughout Great Britain should be invited.

Conservative

Labour

Liberal Democrat

UKIP


Green Party (I hate to bring this up again) England and Wales are separate from The Scottish Party which excludes them. There is no Nationwide Green Party in a GB context.

SNP should be in a Scottish debate with their peers from The Scottish Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat.

Same in Wales with PC and their peers.

Northern Ireland Unionists, Sinn Fein, SDLP etc.

Any more than four (arguably three) participants would ensure a fiasco.

Realistically it should probably just be prospective PM's - Cameron and Milliband.

Yes, I agree with your point. The Green movement is a movement rather than a party as such, and the English and Scottish variants should have to come to a joint arrangement for the debate if they are to take part in the National debates.

 

[Busaholic]

Fixed-term parliaments were never given a mandate by the electorate - no political party had, as far as I know, mentioned such a thing in their election manifestoes of 2010. Nick Clegg was so besotted with the idea of remaining in power for ever and a day despite never getting a winning vote that his new best friend Dave easily persuaded him that this wheeze would give him five years, even if it ensured the LibDems spent the rest of the century back in the wilderness. No doubt Chris Huhne, with all the moral backbone he has shown over the years, concurred with this assessment. Danny Alexander need never go back to that junior PR job with Loch Ness Tourist Board!

The SNP, Plaid Cymru and The Labour Party to their credit imo did at least try to scale it back to four years. Now all we are getting from this coalition government is attempted bribery, even down to constituency level! The number of government ministers we've had down in Penzance (St Ives constituency) over the last year is unbelievable, probably more than in all the previous dexades put together. Each school extension is 'thanks to the benificent LibDem council' or half-baked plan for a St Erth interchange thanks to our wonderful Conservative Transport Secretary. None of it washes with me. nor, I suspect, much of the electorate.

 

[Senex]

Now all we are getting from this coalition government is attempted bribery, even down to constituency level!

That's only what all governments do when they are trying to get re-elected. Think Humber Bridge.

 

[Busaholic]

That's only what all governments do when they are trying to get re-elected. Think Humber Bridge.

That was as a result of the Hull North by-election in 1966, but the plans were already in place, a bill having been passed to enable its construction in 1959. Now it's at a general election in each seat considered marginal by either party in the coalition. I was taken to task for using the word 'gerrymandering' in an earlier post, but it includes this sort of thing as well as changing constituency boundaries.

 

[Oswyntail]

... The number of government ministers we've had down in Penzance (St Ives constituency) over the last year is unbelievable

.Of course this could be a policy of actually showing support to the peninsula after the effects of the Dawlish issue.

...probably more than in all the previous dexades put together.

Because the previous government didn't give a toss about the country outside its own heartlands?

... None of it washes with me. nor, I suspect, much of the electorate.

Probably not. But I guess, if no Government representative visited the South-West you would be grumbling about being ignored:roll:

 

[ExRes]

All prospective Governments offer bribes, always have and always will, they are called manifestos and are designed to try offering bigger bribes than the others can think up

 

[shinkansen1966]

The result of 7 May 2015 is may well be messy.

This plausible prediction makes interesting reading.
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

On the morning of Friday 8 May, senior politicians will have a few headaches. And that won't be as a result of overnight drinking.

In the event of a hung parliament, convention gives the sitting prime minister the first opportunity to form a new government. David Cameron, over to you.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

The result of 7 May 2015 is may well be messy.

This plausible prediction makes interesting reading.
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

On the morning of Friday 8 May, senior politicians will have a few headaches. And that won't be as a result of overnight drinking.

In the event of a hung parliament, convention gives the sitting prime minister the first opportunity to form a new government. David Cameron, over to you.

A good breakdown of the numbers and options in the Guardian based on the latest polls.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

Interesting it looks like no two parties will be able to from a majority (the only option that would give more than 326 seats needed to form a majority is a Labour, SNP LibDem alliance).

Assuming the Tories have the first attempt to form a government I carn't see the Lib Dems wanting to work with them again and the SNP have already ruled out any deal so I carn't see the Tories being able to from a stable minority government. A Labour Minority government with support from the SNP and Lib Dems but not a formal coalition is the most likely outcome IMO.

 

[radamfi]

If the SNP are part of the next government, I wonder if they will block attempts to reregulate buses?

 

[St Rollox]

Ukip voters to come to their senses and it's a Tory landslide.
What few MPs Labour have left then tear themselves apart blaming each other over the defeat.
Scotland becomes independent by September.
Milliband moves to Scotland and helps Salmond start a new Scottish Labour Party.
Scottish railways are moved to the international section on this forum.

 

[muddythefish]

Lib Dems return to Labour en masse, UKip voters decimate the Tory vote and Labour canters back into Downing St.
Tories emigrate to join the Tea party.
Railways returned to public ownership and we all live happily ever after.

 

[shinkansen1966]

Interesting it looks like no two parties will be able to from a majority.

There are two parties which would be able to form a 326+ majority: a coalition of Labour and Conservatives.

It's already being discussed:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31776943

 

[Oswyntail]

There are two parties which would be able to form a 326+ majority: a coalition of Labour and Conservatives.
....

Why insist on a majority? Make every vote a free vote, and see where that takes you! Stop thinking of the rest as the "Opposition", and you might move away from "You're rubbish, you are", to considered oversight. and debate, rather than insults (It can happen - look at the debates in the Lords, most of the time). The stated policies of the three serious parties are close enough for this to work, if only they could rid themselves of tribal attitudes.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Why insist on a majority? Make every vote a free vote, and see where that takes you! Stop thinking of the rest as the "Opposition", and you might move away from "You're rubbish, you are", to considered oversight. and debate, rather than insults (It can happen - look at the debates in the Lords, most of the time). The stated policies of the three serious parties are close enough for this to work, if only they could rid themselves of tribal attitudes.

While I agree in principle, I do see one problem.
One reason for not voter apathy already is that "they are all the same" or "it doesn't matter which one of them I vote for". If what you say happens, then that would essentially prove those attitudes right.

 

[Oswyntail]

While I agree in principle, I do see one problem.
One reason for not voter apathy already is that "they are all the same" or "it doesn't matter which one of them I vote for". If what you say happens, then that would essentially prove those attitudes right.

Yes, but we could get back to what is supposed to happen, and vote for our most suitable representatives, rather than a party. And, with a free vote system, it is more possible that a single MP with a good argument could actually make a difference by persuading others.

 

[St Rollox]

Best political poster in years must be the Tory one of Milliband in Alex Salmond's pocket.
Hope the Tories cover Scotland with it.

 

[muddythefish]

My favourite was Call Me Dave behind the Thatcher mask.
A prophetic poster in view of the nightmare of the past 5 years.

 

[ExRes]

My favourite was Call Me Dave behind the Thatcher mask.
A prophetic poster in view of the nightmare of the past 5 years.

Just as prophetic as the 'Demon Eyes' poster of Blair I would have thought

 

[Tetchytyke]

Best political poster in years must be the Tory one of Milliband in Alex Salmond's pocket.
Hope the Tories cover Scotland with it.

It's not a great poster, although better than The Sun's delightful mock-up of Nicola Sturgeon on the "wrecking ball" of Miley Cyrus fame.

I don't know why they are bothering though. SNP voters are not going to vote Conservative and every seat that the SNP gain will take Miliband further away from Number 10. If anything, you'd expect the Tories to be encouraging Scotland to vote SNP, just to keep Labour out.

Ah yes, I'd completely forgotten about NEW LABOUR NEW DANGER. I always thought Saatchi was meant to be an advertising genius, but it seems not.

 

[Manchester77]

I don't see how the tory poster will make voters vote tory! Salmond looks highly statesmanlike and miliband looks irrelevant, surely it'll just pull more people to the SNP?

 

[Busaholic]

I don't see how the tory poster will make voters vote tory! Salmond looks highly statesmanlike and miliband looks irrelevant, surely it'll just pull more people to the SNP?

If you live in Scotland, have a vote and tell the Tories you want to vote for them, they'll send a chauffeur-driven car to take you from your house to the polling station, and back again afterwards. If they were allowed to they'd probably throw in a champagne breakfast!

 

[shinkansen1966]

My prediction for the results of the 2015 general election:

The Conservatives will lose around 5-10 seats. As sitting prime minister, David Cameron has the first opportunity to form a new government. And my guess, he'll continue as PM leading a minority administration with just enough support from the Northern Ireland unionists. And possibly some LibDems. Support for the minority government will be on a case by case basis.

But I think Mr Cameron will be watching events closely in the seat of Sheffield Hallam. There's a real possibility that the current deputy prime minister is going to lose his seat. And with their current LibDem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce, stepping at this election, this will leave the LibDems leaderless. So attempts to continue the Con/LibDem coalition are going to be tricky.

And to complicate things, they day after the 7 May 2015 general election is the 70th anniversary of VE day. So any coalition negotiations of any kind may be postponed, while party leaders pay their respects to the war dead.

The other big news stories of this election could be:
Labour are wiped out in Scotland
UKIP come second in around 50-100 seats