General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[Arglwydd Golau]

. In terms of people, however, there is not a single member of the Labour front bench who seems able to articulate a proper argument for anything they propose, which perhaps explains why their idea of opposition is a mixture of scare stories, exaggerations and insults. .

Couldn't you substitute 'Labour' in your statement for 'Conservative' and 'opposition' for 'government' and you would have the same thing?

 

[ainsworth74]

Oh how exciting for us! President of the RMT no less wanting to be our MP. He might even have a chance as the Labour party in Redcar & Cleveland is currently imploding in a highly entertaining fashion with a number of councillors deselected (including the current leader of the council) and others resigning. Still I suspect that we'll go back to Labour as we always have been historically.

If Ian Swales hadn't stood down the Lib Dems might have a chance of keeping the seat the but I doubt it with an unknown candidate.

 

[Manchester77]

President of the RMT Peter Pinkney has joined the Greens and will stand as their candidate for Redcar because Labour 'aren't socialist enough' and 'A reddish Conservative Party'. You may remember the RMT union was expelled from Labour affiliation ten years ago for supporting the Scottish Socialist party and has been led by the Champagne Socialist Bob Crow.

Reportedly Greens aren't very happy with him describing them as a socialist party.

Well Nicola Sturgeon did describe labour as the 'red tories' when she became leader so he's backed up by the might of the SNP.

Interestingly its looking like the SNP will surpass the number of Welsh Labour MPs too as recent polls are putting the SNP on like 50 MPs! Be very interesting if this happened - http://i100.independent.co.uk/image/25946-1ycpb1i.jpg

 

[Oswyntail]

Couldn't you substitute 'Labour' in your statement for 'Conservative' and 'opposition' for 'government' and you would have the same thing?

Well, no, actually.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Well, no, actually.

Oh, all right, then!

....but one could use the constant witter from the Tory front bench that Labour caused the recession, when even that scion of the City, Eddie George, has recently said that certainly wasn't true (probably not reported in the Telegraph, mail and definitely not the Sun)

 

[ainsworth74]

Oh, all right, then!

Yes a rather disappointing exchange! Perhaps both you fine fellows could expand a bit on your points?

 

[ExRes]

He might even have a chance as the Labour party in Redcar & Cleveland is currently imploding in a highly entertaining fashion with a number of counsellors deselected

A Freudian slip or do Councillors need Counsellors ?

 

[ainsworth74]

A Freudian slip or do Councillors need Counsellors ?

Heh the way some of them have been going on I think they might do

 

[St Rollox]

Well Nicola Sturgeon did describe labour as the 'red tories' when she became leader so he's backed up by the might of the SNP.

Interestingly its looking like the SNP will surpass the number of Welsh Labour MPs too as recent polls are putting the SNP on like 50 MPs! Be very interesting if this happened - http://i100.independent.co.uk/image/25946-1ycpb1i.jpg

The polls having been showing an SNP increase month on month since the 2010 election when the SNP got 19.6% of the vote on election day.
They have increased in the opinion polls about one point every two months since then.
Lord Ashcroft's poll last month looked at the 14 safest Labour seats in Scotland and two LibDem seats.
The LibDems are dust.
The 14 Labour seats, some with 20,000 majorities showed the SNP with a slight lead.
Basically if there's a local foodbank then local Labour are in trouble.
Labour's best hope long term might be to take the hit and free itself from British Labour.
Then go for Home Rule plus basically an Isle of Man set up.
Which will probably happen anyway with or without Labour.

 

[ExRes]

Another brilliant idea by Miliband and his sidekicks for gaining 'cheap' votes very expensively, who will explain to the (non)travelling passengers why their train is cancelled because Labour think it's a vote winner to give people more time off work, it's all very well giving people time off but how do you fill the gaps when highly trained employees become unavailable ?

The BBC report is here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31253409

What I find very interesting is the paragraph that states "Labour says research by the House of Commons library indicates a fall in existing Government spending on tax credits, to pay for childcare, will raise 'significantly more than £150m', more than covering the cost of the initiative", that means to me that an incoming Labour Government would continue with a policy, a fall in spending on tax credits, that they seem so upset about when it's a current policy, is that hypocrisy or what

 

[Tetchytyke]

it's all very well giving people time off but how do you fill the gaps when highly trained employees become unavailable ?

The same way you do when "highly trained employees" take annual leave or are off sick.

You have to give that much notice to your employer about paternity leave that nobody can act all surprised when it happens.

Besides which, based on my experience of fatherhood I'd rather a train driver (to use your example) with a newborn baby was at home rather than trying to drive on three hours sleep...

 

[radamfi]

I'm normally fairly left leaning, but I don't agree with subsidies for child rearing. Obviously regular readers will know that I don't generally approve of having children anyway. If you want kids, pay for them yourself.

 

[ExRes]

The same way you do when "highly trained employees" take annual leave or are off sick.

You have to give that much notice to your employer about paternity leave that nobody can act all surprised when it happens.

Besides which, based on my experience of fatherhood I'd rather a train driver (to use your example) with a newborn baby was at home rather than trying to drive on three hours sleep...

There are enough complaints as it is with leave and sickness, now extra leave for maternity/paternity leave on top, talk about the nanny state

When I worked for the Post Office we had, at one time, 16% of our division on maternity leave, these were counter clerks who could not be replaced because they were entitled to return to their posts at a later time, the costs of training temporary staff were prohibitive so the queues got bigger and the customers got angrier, it didn't matter a fig how much notice we had

99% of people managed perfectly well in the past with a newborn at home, shame todays fathers are such wimps looking for an excuse to get out of being at work

 

[Tetchytyke]

99% of people managed perfectly well in the past with a newborn at home, shame todays fathers are such wimps looking for an excuse to get out of being at work

It's only four weeks ffs, an increase of two weeks. I've been on the sick for periods longer than that.

 

[ExRes]

It's only four weeks ffs, an increase of two weeks. I've been on the sick for periods longer than that.

And you'd be happy with that if you were trying to run a company on a tight budget and keep your staff in employment ?

 

[ainsworth74]

You have to give that much notice to your employer about paternity leave that nobody can act all surprised when it happens.

15 weeks to be exact so if an employer cannot plan around someone being missing for a few weeks with that much notice how they cope with sick leave, which can with zero notice, I do not know.

 

[Tetchytyke]

And you'd be happy with that if you were trying to run a company on a tight budget and keep your staff in employment ?

It's a cost of doing business, just like someone being off work for four weeks with two broken legs is a cost of doing business. At least you can predict paternity leave.

The average family now has less than two children, which means it's going to be a one-off event for a good proportion of their staff, and rarely something that happens more than twice.

We see the same arguments every time paternity leave, or the minimum wage, is mentioned: "business can't afford it". If a business genuinely cannot afford four weeks leave, once or twice in a lifetime, then that business is on skid row anyway.

 

[ExRes]

15 weeks to be exact so if an employer cannot plan around someone being missing for a few weeks with that much notice how they cope with sick leave, which can with zero notice, I do not know.

An employer can't work around sick leave, that's why, if you look just at the railway, there are so many trains cancelled for that very reason

What use is 15 weeks notice, or 51 weeks notice, for a train driver going on paternity leave, are you going to spend months and thousands of £ to train a stand in ?, a depot might have one driver needing cover in any year or it could have ten drivers, just how do you suggest an employer copes ?

 

[radamfi]

If you are going to allow paid time off work then it should be available to all employees, not just those with children.

 

[ExRes]

If you are going to allow paid time off work then it should be available to all employees, not just those with children.

I reckon I've disagreed with every post of yours I've ever seen on here, but this one I'm 100% in agreement with

 

[Johnuk123]

If you are going to allow paid time off work then it should be available to all employees, not just those with children.

It's the same with all the smokers who can spend a good deal of their day puffing away outside on a smoking break but if a non smoker asked to go outside at the same time they would be very unlikely to get permission.

 

[Tetchytyke]

If you are going to allow paid time off work then it should be available to all employees, not just those with children.

You get it, it's called "holiday". Have you heard of it?

What use is 15 weeks notice, or 51 weeks notice, for a train driver going on paternity leave, are you going to spend months and thousands of £ to train a stand in ?, a depot might have one driver needing cover in any year or it could have ten drivers, just how do you suggest an employer copes ?

A depot manages to cover the five weeks paid holiday that drivers get each and every year, if they can't cover four weeks twice in a lifetime with four months' notice then something's going very badly wrong. I dread to think how they'll cope when a driver gets a "one under" and has four months off to recover.

And it's the same in any walk of life. I took four weeks off when I had my bairn- two weeks paternity leave, two weeks annual leave- and the world didn't stop. If it does, it's a business failure not a reason to give people leave.

 

[radamfi]

You get it, it's called "holiday". Have you heard of it?

Obviously I am referring to the additional holiday that parents get.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Obviously I am referring to the additional holiday that parents get.

Statutory maternity/paternity/adoption pay is paid by the Government not the employer, and it is not the usual rates- it is about £120pw and after 43 weeks any maternity leave is entirely unpaid.

Parental leave may be many things, but holiday it is not.

 

[radamfi]

What additional holiday? Statutory maternity/paternity/adoption pay is paid by the Government not the employer, and it is not the usual rates- it is about £120pw and after 43 weeks any maternity leave is entirely unpaid.

But many employers pay more than that. Whether the Government or employer pays, it should be available either to everyone, or to no one.

 

[ExRes]

I can see there's no point in trying to argue anything different to the something for nothing line

Let's just take another view though, a specialist, time critical and highly technical engineering company with half a dozen employees, extremely successful, financially self sufficient based on being paid for what they produce, two of their employees want a couple of weeks off for paternity leave, now just who is paying for their time off, the Government or the company ?, due to the temporary loss of two staff they fail to produce an ordered product and their reputation is destroyed, do they qualify as a 'skid row' company ?, is it the companies fault that they fail and all their employees lose their jobs ?, including, of course, the two on paternity leave

These stupid vote catching ideas take no heed of individual companies, they just cover everyone with the same red tape that those who introduce them never have to deal with in the real world

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I can see there's no point in trying to argue anything different to the something for nothing line

Let's just take another view though, a specialist, time critical and highly technical engineering company with half a dozen employees, extremely successful, financially self sufficient based on being paid for what they produce, two of their employees want a couple of weeks off for paternity leave, now just who is paying for their time off, the Government or the company ?, due to the temporary loss of two staff they fail to produce an ordered product and their reputation is destroyed, do they qualify as a 'skid row' company ?, is it the companies fault that they fail and all their employees lose their jobs ?, including, of course, the two on paternity leave

These stupid vote catching ideas take no heed of individual companies, they just cover everyone with the same red tape that those who introduce them never have to deal with in the real world

Well, in your scenario, the other workers might appreciate a spot of overtime?
It has already been said, it's only two weeks...this is what happens for Annual Leave and sickness....so why not for Paternity leave? You might as well suggest that companies should not employ women, as they might require maternity leave!

 

[Tetchytyke]

But many employers pay more than that. Whether the Government or employer pays, it should be available either to everyone, or to no one.

If you want to take two weeks off work and not get paid for it, twice in your 35-year working career, I'm sure your employer will be happy to oblige. Mine would.

ExRes, I'm sure the other workers will appreciate a spot of overtime. Or, in that incredibly specific example, the fathers might not take their whole entitlement, or defer it slightly. What would happen if the key engineer got hit by a truck and spent a month in a coma? Or dropped dead- graveyards are full of indispensable men.

In 99.99% of cases we're talking about jobs where there is already an entitlement to paid annual leave and companies cope admirably by planning ahead.

 

[St Rollox]

Are the Tories offering any goodies?

 

[radamfi]

If you want to take two weeks off work and not get paid for it, twice in your 35-year working career, I'm sure your employer will be happy to oblige. Mine would.

But paternity is not unpaid. At worst you get statutory. Many companies give full pay.

Obviously the main issue is maternity as that is longer. Women voluntarily have children so if they want time off then they can take an unpaid career break or leave work altogether. No one forces them to have kids. There is contraception, the morning after pill and abortion so if they end up giving birth then it is their own fault.