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General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

How are you voting in the General Election

  • Conservative

    Votes: 25 18.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 10.8%
  • Labour

    Votes: 45 32.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 16 11.5%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 9 6.5%
  • UK Independence Party

    Votes: 13 9.4%
  • Other: Right Leaning Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Left Leaning Party

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other: Centrist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other: Other

    Votes: 2 1.4%
  • Not Voting

    Votes: 7 5.0%
  • Spoiling Ballot

    Votes: 3 2.2%

  • Total voters
    139
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DownSouth

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The Greens may not even have candidates in all seats so many people won't even have the choice of voting for them, simply because of the voting system.
This could be addressed by reforming the House of Lords to effectively become a Senate (keeping the House of Lords name and certain traditions associated with it for the sake of heritage) with proportional representation applied for a small number of large regional divisions to each elect multiple members.

A Senate for the UK would have a number of divisions in England (between three and six) and one each for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. The number of members allocated to each region would be weighted to ensure a strong voice for the regions that cannot be drowned out by the representatives from the division which includes London.

Alternately, the House of Commons could be downsized (it's a bit too big to function properly) by doubling the size of the constituencies and go for the 'top up' method of proportional representation to give the minor parties the place due by getting amounts such as 8% on a national level.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Alternately, the House of Commons could be downsized (it's a bit too big to function properly) by doubling the size of the constituencies and go for the 'top up' method of proportional representation to give the minor parties the place due by getting amounts such as 8% on a national level.

The problem with downsizing the House of Commons is that most MPs already have a huge workload from dealing with problems that individual constituents bring to them. Halve the number of MPs and you double the constituency workload that each one has, which would make it basically impossible for MPs to adequately represent constituents.
 

Oswyntail

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This could be addressed by reforming the House of Lords to effectively become a Senate ....
Whatever a "Senate" might be!
As it stands at present, the Lords is a much more effective chamber than the Commons.If you were to watch the debates, you would find much more expertise, knowledge and experience than among our elected representatives - the worst contributors are those old MPs who have been "sent upstairs". If the Lords were elected, it would likely become simply a mirror of the Commons, run by party hacks on party lines, and the quality of debate - and subsequent revision of legislation - would be lost. Any reform (which is necessary, but not as much as in the Commons) must find a way of retaining the current levels of expertise.
For the Commons, PR is not the answer, as we can see from those countries that have adopted it, where the end result is "more of the same, only worse". Nor is tinkering with the number of constituencies. IMHO, the only sensible reform would be based on making MPs represent their constituents, and not their parties. Making all votes free would be a start. And publishing details of how an MP voted on each occasion.
 

Greenback

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I do have an affinity with doing away with political parties in the House of Commons and making every vote a free vote. More transparency and accountability would be good, too.
 

DynamicSpirit

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For the Commons, PR is not the answer, as we can see from those countries that have adopted it, where the end result is "more of the same, only worse".

I'm not sure what makes you think that. A cursory inspection of many northern European countries shows that many countries with PR appear on the whole to have Governments that are just as stable (and for most of the post-WWII-years were actually more economically successful) than the UK, though that's less true of the last 20 years or so.

For most of the last 70 years, the UK electoral system has completely disenfranchised almost anyone who supported a party other than Labour or the Conservatives (other than the small minority who happened to live in seats with an unusually high level of 3rd party support). In my view disenfranchising voters in that way is completely incompatible with the aim of being a democracy - and for that reason alone we need some form of PR.

I do have an affinity with doing away with political parties in the House of Commons and making every vote a free vote. More transparency and accountability would be good, too.

Might I suggest that that kind of thing is superficially attractive but would probably cause more problems than it solves. MPs have a dual duty to both represent their constituents and - if they are part of the Governing party - to support the Government. If MPs don't feel some obligation to support their party, then you'd risk paralyzing the Government, since it would become very difficult to pass any legislation. MPs could simply hold Governments to ransom by perpetually demanding special measures for their own constituencies in exchange for voting with their own parties.

I do however wish MPs were more free to speak their minds on matters where they disagreed with their own parties, but I think that's more a matter of political culture and the way the Press reports on politics than to do with any legislation. (At the moment there's a bit of a vicious circle where an MP disagreeing with his party is usually treated by much of the press as headline news and as a major embarrassment to that party, which of course causes MPs to become very reluctant to publically voice disagreements with their party's policies, which means when an MP does so, it becomes more newsworthy, and the vicious circle is complete :( )
 

Greenback

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Might I suggest that that kind of thing is superficially attractive but would probably cause more problems than it solves. MPs have a dual duty to both represent their constituents and - if they are part of the Governing party - to support the Government. If MPs don't feel some obligation to support their party, then you'd risk paralyzing the Government, since it would become very difficult to pass any legislation. MPs could simply hold Governments to ransom by perpetually demanding special measures for their own constituencies in exchange for voting with their own parties.

I think you're probably right, but I still like the idea as I strongly dislike the party political machines.

I do however wish MPs were more free to speak their minds on matters where they disagreed with their own parties, but I think that's more a matter of political culture and the way the Press reports on politics than to do with any legislation. (At the moment there's a bit of a vicious circle where an MP disagreeing with his party is usually treated by much of the press as headline news and as a major embarrassment to that party, which of course causes MPs to become very reluctant to publically voice disagreements with their party's policies, which means when an MP does so, it becomes more newsworthy, and the vicious circle is complete :( )

The role of the whips doesn't really help, either. The whole system needs reform.
 

Tetchytyke

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For the Commons, PR is not the answer, as we can see from those countries that have adopted it, where the end result is "more of the same, only worse".

The German system has plenty of merit, with constituency-based voting being "topped up" by PR to make the House more accurately reflect voting patterns.

The one big issue with PR is the use of "party lists", which we see can be a problem with European elections, as senior party people can end up untouchable (Helmut Kohl being a good example). But then the current system isn't a great deal better- unless I move to Witney I can't vote out David Cameron.

I know plenty of people criticise the horse-trading that happens in coalition government, but I don't see why it's a bad thing. It's widely accepted that the Lib Dems have taken the edge off the Tories' more sociopathic reform ideas, and Government didn't collapse whilst they did it. And if we abolish political parties, or abolish whipping, then you're only going to see more horse-trading.

IMHO, the only sensible reform would be based on making MPs represent their constituents, and not their parties.

I'm not sure I agree with this. MPs already technically represent the constituency and not the party. Look at the people of Witney (funny how these things happen) who thought they'd voted for the Conservative MP they wanted, only to see Shaun Woodward defect to Labour (and as he didn't resign, there was no by-election). Forcing MPs to "work for the constituency" would need to be very carefully worded- with a power of recall- to prevent it happening again, as we've recently seen with two more Conservative defections (although at least they had the decency to resign and force a by-election, they didn't have to).
 
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DownSouth

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The German system has plenty of merit, with constituency-based voting being "topped up" by PR to make the House more accurately reflect voting patterns.

The one big issue with PR is the use of "party lists", which we see can be a problem with European elections, as senior party people can end up untouchable (Helmut Kohl being a good example). But then the current system isn't a great deal better- unless I move to Witney I can't vote out David Cameron.
If the "top-up list" method of PR (also used in New Zealand national elections) is used, the problem of it giving a untouchable party hacks could be avoided by the top-up list members elected being that party's House candidates who got the highest proportion of the primary vote in their seat while still losing, instead of coming from a separate list.

This would ensure that nobody gets in even on a party ticket without putting in a credible performance - even if not a winning performance - which gets a moderate level of approval from the local voters, so forcing the parties to select quality candidates even for seats they expect to lose. This would be a little analogous to the situation of the PM needing to retain their seat at every election.

It would have the slight problem of being seen as granting two members to some areas. This could be mitigated against by not allowing a seat to contribute top-up members of the same party in more than two consecutive elections, and by not allowing a top-up member to establish a public office in the constituency.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I do have an affinity with doing away with political parties in the House of Commons and making every vote a free vote. More transparency and accountability would be good, too.
I think these two sentences are mutually exclusive.

If you ban official political parties which can be regulated to some extent (I'm in favour of party membership being a publicly available list) then you'll end up with the same political parties continuing to operate - but out of sight and without any accountability.
 

Oswyntail

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....
If you ban official political parties which can be regulated to some extent (I'm in favour of party membership being a publicly available list) then you'll end up with the same political parties continuing to operate - but out of sight and without any accountability.
Political parties would not be banned. Their role would be to develop policies, and form groupings prior to election. Once an MP is an MP, he should be there to represent the views of his constituents, who may favour the policies of one party in one area, another in another. He would have been elected as a "X" party member, but he would not be under the control of a party whip. As now, the PM would be the member who could command most support in the Commons, but would be able to enlist anyone into the administration, regardless of party. The policies they followed would be the ones that had found most support in the country - which means that politicians would actually have to listen to discover what they were, rather than have them dictated by 20-something wonks with no experience of anything. Free votes, with the details published to constituents would show if the MP was actually representing the people he was meant to. The MPs would be accountable, as they are now, but would be open to a lot more scrutiny; parties would not need to be "accountable" because they were not actually in control of anything.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Political parties would not be banned. Their role would be to develop policies, and form groupings prior to election. Once an MP is an MP, he should be there to represent the views of his constituents, who may favour the policies of one party in one area, another in another. He would have been elected as a "X" party member, but he would not be under the control of a party whip.

I don't think that would work because much of the power you remove from the whips would in practice end up in the hands of whoever is responsible for choosing the party's candidate in the following election (which, depending on the system each party has for choosing candidates, will normally mean, the local constituency activists). That will happen because if MPs consistently don't vote the way their local party activists want, they'd risk not being selected to stand at the following election. Local activists are likely to much less informed than those who formulate party policies in Westminster (and typically, activists of all parties have more hardline views), so that would most likely result in MPs tending to vote for sillier/less thought out policies.
 
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Oswyntail

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..... That will happen because if MPs consistently don't vote the way their local party activists want, they'd risk not being selected....
Which surely means that local party activists** would have to be more responsive to the constituency they are in. And there would still be party policies, developed centrally - but they, in turn, would have to be better thought out.
**To my mind, local party activists, of whatever party, should be simply locked in a slightly darkened room and talked to gently. They tend to be utter ravers, about twenty years behind reality.
 

radamfi

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Under First Past The Post, parties are forced to be 'broad churches'. For example, moderate Conservatives such as Ken Clarke have to be in the same party as someone like John Redwood. Similarly, Labour has to include both New and Old Labour types. If New and Old Labour split into separate parties, that would split the Labour vote, ensuring their defeat.

In a PR system, they would be free to split into different parties. Similar parties could still join together in coalition. Also more targeted parties would mean less of a need for "whipping" as people within the same party are more likely to be like minded.
 

richw

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The election will be won or lost on the minority of marginal seats. Safe seats are likely to be pushed to the background in the battle field.

I live in a marginal seat. Last election there was 66 votes between Tories and lib dems.

I really don't know which way to vote, Tory or labour really are only option for me to avoid a pretty much wasted vote, but I don't want milliband to be pm and not keen on Tories with the way they run things.
 

GrimsbyPacer

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I live in a marginal seat. Last election there was 66 votes between Tories and lib dems.

I really don't know which way to vote, Tory or labour really are only option for me to avoid a pretty much wasted vote, but I don't want milliband to be pm and not keen on Tories with the way they run things.

Miliband has been made to look bad by the press stooping to lows such as picking on his voice, looks and the way he eats. Why is that relevent for voters?? He is like most other Labour MP's in his beliefs. And besides, unless you live in Doncaster you won't be voting for him. There's alot more to the government than the PM.

If you are to choose. Remember the Labour years '97-2010 and compare it to now. For some it may be better or worse, but you will need to figure out what's down to the government and what isn't in both periods.

I have to admit, the Green party have the best policies and plan for the future. But sadly in my area it will be a choice between slightly left Labour and the far right UKIP. That is no choice at all as I don't support the ''it's someone else fault'' speeches which can be used on anyone.
 

richw

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Miliband has been made to look bad by the press stooping to lows such as picking on his voice, looks and the way he eats. Why is that relevent for voters?? He is like most other Labour MP's in his beliefs.

If you are to choose. Remember the Labour years '97-2010 and compare it to now. For some it may be better or worse, but you will need to figure out what's down to the government and what isn't in both periods.

I just feel he lacks essential leadership qualities from what I have seen of him.

Labour years were great from my point of view, but look at the state they left the economy in. Is it worth 5 years of great for 5 years of cutting to balance the books from their overspending.

I recall being told in 2010 to vote for the party I don't want in power in 2015 due to the amount of cuts they'd have to make to recover the overspending by labour that whoever won in 2010 would have no chance of winning the next election.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I just feel he lacks essential leadership qualities from what I have seen of him.

Labour years were great from my point of view, but look at the state they left the economy in. Is it worth 5 years of great for 5 years of cutting to balance the books from their overspending.

I recall being told in 2010 to vote for the party I don't want in power in 2015 due to the amount of cuts they'd have to make to recover the overspending by labour that whoever won in 2010 would have no chance of winning the next election.

In my view, Labour left the economy in a rather better state than it was in in 1997.

The problem with this debate is that, thanks to some rather clever propaganda, largely by the Conservatives, the economy has been equated in the public eye with 'Government deficit'. As if the sole aim of a good economy is to have the Government spend no more than it takes in taxes. And then to add to that, that narrative conveniently forgets that there was a *world* recession starting in 2008, which the Labour Party in the UK was, strangely enough, not solely responsible for, and which you would expect to lead to a deterioration in most countries' finances. Instead, the narrative makes out that Government deficit is both solely responsible for the UK's economic woes and solely the fault of Labour. And frankly, both of those propositions are rubbish.

In my view, what's much more important than the deficit is how much a country is producing - whether it is it's actually making enough goods and services to provide for the population, and whether it's investing enough to make sure that can continue into the future. I would say Labour in 1997 inherited a country that was in an appalling state in that regard, and did manage to turn that round to some extent (although not enough).

The deficit can be important, but set against that, a country's economy doesn't work the same way as a single household. For the economy as a whole, money circulates around in a somewhat circular fashion. Money the Government spends isn't necessarily lost - a lot of it comes back to the Government in the form of taxes. For that reason, the kind of austerity policies the Tories so love can be counterproductive. The Government spends less and the result is less economic activity, and less taxation revenue. And, most significantly, less of the production and investment that is the thing we really need for the future. For that reason, I was completely unsurprised when it turned out that George Osborne has completely failed to meet his deficit reduction targets. He shrank the economy. What else do you expect?

The Conservatives are, on the whole, ideologically opposed to 'big Government' and for that reason it's convenient for them to find economic reasons to justify more and bigger cuts. But the human cost of many of those cuts is in my view appalling and the supposed economic justification is, when you look at it in more detail, very iffy.
 

Butts

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Why are all the proponents of PR quoting systems used abroad rather than those used in Wales and Scotland :idea:
 

yorksrob

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I shall be boycotting coverage of any televised debates unless the Green Party are involved.
 

radamfi

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Butts:2039909 said:
Why are all the proponents of PR quoting systems used abroad rather than those used in Wales and Scotland :idea:

Wales, Scotland and Germany all use the Additional Member System.

If that is good enough for Scotland and Wales, why not for the UK? If First Past the Post is superior, then that should be rolled out to Scotland and Wales too. Are there many people in Scotland and Wales campaigning for First Past the Post?
 

muddythefish

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Labour years were great from my point of view, but look at the state they left the economy in. Is it worth 5 years of great for 5 years of cutting to balance the books from their overspending.

I recall being told in 2010 to vote for the party I don't want in power in 2015 due to the amount of cuts they'd have to make to recover the overspending by labour that whoever won in 2010 would have no chance of winning the next election.

Standard right wing mythology.

The economy in 2010 was recovering and out of the recession caused by the worldwide financial crisis of 2008, so in fact it was in a good state albeit with a large deficit caused by the collapse of tax receipts in the recession and the multi-billion cost of bailing out the banks.

The Conservative-led coalition chose an ideological path of austerity and sent the economy back into recession, which is why the deficit is now worse than in 2010 - giving the Tories another excuse of course to make more spending cuts should they win in May.
 

MidnightFlyer

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and the far right UKIP.

Evidence please. I'll give you authoritarian but if anything they're getting more leftist as time progresses.

I shall be boycotting coverage of any televised debates unless the Green Party are involved.

I want the Greens to be involved as they'd do a very good job a tearing (predominantly) Labour a new a*sehole however I still remain very, very sceptical of their actual use in the set-up we have. They're great in America where you literally vote for the person stood in front of you, but not so much over here where you vote for loads of individuals who in turn promote one of the people you see to Prime Minister. Look at Clegg and the Lib Dems after the first one in 2010.
 

GrimsbyPacer

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The evidence that UKIP are far right is that the members afe more often dis-enfranchised Tories unhappy with their party.
Also a great many members have openly said racist, sexist, nationalistic and class comments. Geoffy Bloom who was my areas MEP for example.

They are pretending to be left/right and centre to fool voters that support the Labour, Conservative or LibDems to vote for them.

Some policies they had suggested, but have changed as all their policies do have included a Flat Tax rate. Where Lord Sugar would pay the same as me. They also once proposed £150bn in new navy ships. Proposed a HS4 now they are against HS2.

Everything they say is always made to be just that one member's mistaken comments if it offends.

Lets not forget the Nazi party tried to play the Nationalist and Socialist voters. And they mis-used referendums countless times to get what they wanted.
 

MidnightFlyer

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The evidence that UKIP are far right is that the members afe more often dis-enfranchised Tories unhappy with their party.

So all disenfranchised Tories are Far Right? You sure about that? I should think the direction the Conservatives have generally progressed in post-Thatcher is probably enough to make even most unconvinced Tory supporter from back then go to Ukip.

Also a great many members have openly said racist, sexist, nationalistic and class comments. Geoffy Bloom who was my areas MEP for example.

Bloom, as barmy as he is, is a liability to any party trying to get their name out, I can see in the end why they asked him to leave (as ironic as that would be for a 'libertarian' party!). Of course though let's not forget that every other party there is has bad eggs (there's a former Vice-Fuhrer of a Nazi sympathiser groups or something who's a Labour councillor down in Keynes for example), it's just that they tend to be much more under the radar and lower down in the respective party.

Some policies they had suggested, but have changed as all their policies do have included a Flat Tax rate. Where Lord Sugar would pay the same as me. They also once proposed £150bn in new navy ships. Proposed a HS4 now they are against HS2.

I believe they * rejected the introduction of a flat tax at their Conference last year (one of the many reasons I went off them), one of the many signs that they're getting more left (not necessarily left wing) the bigger they grow, which I suppose is inevitable. There was something in the paper the other day about Farage planning to write left-leaning policies just to get ex-Labour voters on board. That doesn't sound very far right to me (though I would argue a lot of 'far right' economics are quite left wing).

* - Specifically the bloke who used to write for the Express whose name escapes me.

Everything they say is always made to be just that one member's mistaken comments if it offends.

Which of course unless it is party policy it is. Do you have any specific examples to back that up?
 

ExRes

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The evidence that UKIP are far right is that the members afe more often dis-enfranchised Tories unhappy with their party.
Also a great many members have openly said racist, sexist, nationalistic and class comments. Geoffy Bloom who was my areas MEP for example.

They are pretending to be left/right and centre to fool voters that support the Labour, Conservative or LibDems to vote for them.

Some policies they had suggested, but have changed as all their policies do have included a Flat Tax rate. Where Lord Sugar would pay the same as me. They also once proposed £150bn in new navy ships. Proposed a HS4 now they are against HS2.

Everything they say is always made to be just that one member's mistaken comments if it offends.

Lets not forget the Nazi party tried to play the Nationalist and Socialist voters. And they mis-used referendums countless times to get what they wanted.

So could we have a list of political parties where many members haven't been caught/quoted making racist/sexist/nationalistic and class comments

Could we have a list of political parties that haven't tried to fool the electorate

Could we have a list of parties that haven't come up with ridiculous policies and changed the policies they claim to follow

Can we have a list of political parties whose members don't try to blame each other for mistakes

And let's not forget how many times each of our political parties have tried to play the electorate

Why attack UKIP as though they are different in any way to the 'main' parties whose lies we have to put up with
 

yorksrob

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I want the Greens to be involved as they'd do a very good job a tearing (predominantly) Labour a new a*sehole however I still remain very, very sceptical of their actual use in the set-up we have. They're great in America where you literally vote for the person stood in front of you, but not so much over here where you vote for loads of individuals who in turn promote one of the people you see to Prime Minister. Look at Clegg and the Lib Dems after the first one in 2010.

Doubtless that will be one of Mr Cameron's motivations in this.

However, for me the Greens are the only left of centre party with a distinct vision beyond the Thatcherite-Blairite consensus, therefore at the very least, I'd be interested to see what they say.

Perhaps more importantly though, given their comparative shares of the vote and members in the house, if UKIP are allowed to take part, then there's no excuse for omitting the Greens.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
But if it's a UK Election will that be The Green Party of England and Wales or Scotland as they are separate ?

Given their share of MP's and comparative likelihood of influence in parliament, England, obviously. However, there would be nothing to stop them forming an alliance with their Celtic brethren.
 

radamfi

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I can, unfortunately, see why the omission of the Greens from the debate is considered, and that is sadly because they are shut out by the voting system. Voters are fully aware of the need to avoid their vote being wasted. Of course, the opponents of PR don't care as long as their side benefits from the status quo.
 

yorksrob

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I can, unfortunately, see why the omission of the Greens from the debate is considered, and that is sadly because they are shut out by the voting system. Voters are fully aware of the need to avoid their vote being wasted. Of course, the opponents of PR don't care as long as their side benefits from the status quo.

I see the point you're making, but presently they have more seats than UKIP.
 
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