GEML franchise 2016

[Philip Phlopp]

Surely they'll be introduced gradually, like one train a week or whatever and following lots of testing?

They can't all be delivered in one batch!

Quite.

And given the Bombardier Aventra product will be well tested with several units in operation (in the same area) prior to AGA receiving their first units, there's relatively little risk. It's only slightly riskier than GWR getting Class 387 units and far less risky than re-engineering the Class 321 units whilst trying to keep them in squadron service.

The real risk is with the Stadler units, and that will have to be managed appropriately, but with Class 90s and Mark 3 LHCS not in demand for immediate cascade, there's no reason why those sets going off lease can't be delayed until the Stadler reliability is where it has to be.

 

[J-2739]

Quite.

And given the Bombardier Aventra product will be well tested with several units in operation (in the same area) prior to AGA receiving their first units, there's relatively little risk. It's only slightly riskier than GWR getting Class 387 units and far less risky than re-engineering the Class 321 units whilst trying to keep them in squadron service.

The real risk is with the Stadler units, and that will have to be managed appropriately, but with Class 90s and Mark 3 LHCS not in demand for immediate cascade, there's no reason why those sets going off lease can't be delayed until the Stadler reliability is where it has to be.

I'm not sure if it would be that big of a problem with the Stadler units, since they are just based on their Continental cousins which has been produced since 2004.

Correct me if I'm wrong though!

 

[HH]

The real risk is with the Stadler units, and that will have to be managed appropriately, but with Class 90s and Mark 3 LHCS not in demand for immediate cascade, there's no reason why those sets going off lease can't be delayed until the Stadler reliability is where it has to be.

Apart from the fact that ROSCOs will still be charging the full whack.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm not sure if it would be that big of a problem with the Stadler units, since they are just based on their Continental cousins which has been produced since 2004.

Correct me if I'm wrong though!

Gladly.

1. The units will not be identical.

2. The units will be running on UK infrastructure.

 

[Wivenswold]

Commuter here. Brand new trains, more coaches, wifi on-board, air con and an OHL upgrade nearing completion. I'm happy.

Seriously thought we'd get all the other 321 cast-offs and the 365s for Intercity services. Can't really understand all the negativity, perhaps anyone posting and being critical of the new bid could state what reasonable expectations they had for the new franchise.

 

[HH]

Commuter here. Brand new trains, more coaches, wifi on-board, air con and an OHL upgrade nearing completion. I'm happy.

Seriously thought we'd get all the other 321 cast-offs and the 365s for Intercity services. Can't really understand all the negativity, perhaps anyone posting and being critical of the new bid could state what reasonable expectations they had for the new franchise.

Not sure that anyone is being negative. There are a few worries about how the introduction of so much new rolling stock will be managed.

 

[samuelmorris]

Looking at the DfT's improvements map there appears to be a slight staggering of the deployment of stock:
Great Eastern: 'new trains from February 2019'
Inter-City: 'new trains from March 2019'
Regional: 'new trains from January 2019'
Stansted Express: 'new trains from February 2019'
West Anglia: 'new trains from February 2019'

This gives the impression that the bi-mode units will be introduced first, with the Aventras and Stansted-configuration Stadlers after that, and the Norwich-configuration Stadlers last. Granted, only one month separation doesn't mean much, but perhaps it gives some idea of the schedule for deployment. Based on other fleet deployments of a similar size, this is quite a tight timetable, 21 months to deliver 1043 vehicles across 169 units of two different manufacturers, three different classes and six subclasses.

The Class 700 deployment to my recollection has been given more than two years for 1140 vehicles across only 115 units from a single manufacturer and two almost identical subclasses. The S-stock deployment has now spanned six years and still isn't quite finished. If the first units were due much earlier than January 2019 I'd be less sceptical, perhaps they intend for large numbers to be ready at once in Q1 2019.

 

[Bletchleyite]

LM managed a near complete fleet replacement on the south WCML and another on the Snow Hill lines. I wouldn't worry. I'd be quite excited by such a step change in quality.


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[Harbornite]

LM managed a near complete fleet replacement on the south WCML and another on the Snow Hill lines. I wouldn't worry. I'd be quite excited by such a step change in quality.


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But London Midland have 7 passenger train classes on their books and not two. The 350s replaced some 321s while the 172s replaced the majority of 150s. This was less drastic than the East Anglia fleet replacement will be. However, I still agree with what you are saying and people should be positive about this investment.

 

[387star]

No mention of DOO or DCO anywhere is there, perhaps there are no plans for an extension of DOO or perhaps hidden as not deemed to be good timing if it is planned.

AGA is pretty much fully DOO anyway and I can't see local trains around Norwich going DOO quite out in the sticks that way

 

[TheEdge]

AGA is pretty much fully DOO anyway and I can't see local trains around Norwich going DOO quite out in the sticks that way

Well, apart from everything north of Ipswich. And the Harwich branch. And Colchester - Clacton, Sudbury, Braintree, Wickford and the mainline.

 

[HH]

Looking at the DfT's improvements map there appears to be a slight staggering of the deployment of stock:
Great Eastern: 'new trains from February 2019'
Inter-City: 'new trains from March 2019'
Regional: 'new trains from January 2019'
Stansted Express: 'new trains from February 2019'
West Anglia: 'new trains from February 2019'

This gives the impression that the bi-mode units will be introduced first, with the Aventras and Stansted-configuration Stadlers after that, and the Norwich-configuration Stadlers last. Granted, only one month separation doesn't mean much, but perhaps it gives some idea of the schedule for deployment. Based on other fleet deployments of a similar size, this is quite a tight timetable, 21 months to deliver 1043 vehicles across 169 units of two different manufacturers, three different classes and six subclasses.

The Class 700 deployment to my recollection has been given more than two years for 1140 vehicles across only 115 units from a single manufacturer and two almost identical subclasses. The S-stock deployment has now spanned six years and still isn't quite finished. If the first units were due much earlier than January 2019 I'd be less sceptical, perhaps they intend for large numbers to be ready at once in Q1 2019.

The Class 700s had a very ordered and regular, but pretty tight schedule. Deliverable providing nothing went wrong...

On EA you've shown 5 regions starting to update in 3 months with 3 of them in one month. That would be sheer lunacy. There would be huge (and I mean huge) problems in driver training for a start, with all 5 on the go at the same time.

 

[F Great Eastern]

The Class 700s had a very ordered and regular, but pretty tight schedule. Deliverable providing nothing went wrong...

On EA you've shown 5 regions starting to update in 3 months with 3 of them in one month. That would be sheer lunacy. There would be huge (and I mean huge) problems in driver training for a start, with all 5 on the go at the same time.

Exactly, that is another one of my gripes about so many trains in such a short period of time, as I said before, if it all works out how AGA want it to, it's going to be amazing but if not it could be the biggest disaster we've seen on any TOC in along while.

And if Abellio's sums are based on everything going to plan and they haven't even considered in the bid finances what happens if there are delays or serious issues, you're going to have a serious problem further down the line, it's a very ambitious project that if pulled off will be rightly hailed as a masterstroke.

You can promise the sun moon and stars, but it has to be able to be delivered, and whilst the investment is amazing and beyond what anyone expected, it's easy to talk the talk, they've got to put this into action, and at the end of the day, they are going to be judged by how this goes, they will go down as a revolutionary TOC who delivered real change or one who bit off far more than they can chew and a right royal mess.

Of course there have been serious issues with rolling stock introductions in the history of the railways. The difference is nobody has attempted to replace all the rolling stock in a franchise in such a short space of time with it all coming on stream at once. There is no get out clause for Abellio here, if the new trains work out great, they should be praised to the heavens, but if the new trains turn out to have serious issues, the blame will rest solely with AGA for their radical fleet replacement.

I don't want to see any passing of the buck of Bombardier or Stadler let us down if that does happen, at the end of the day, they went for a full fleet replacement, and how that works out is on their backs totally, there is nowhere to run for AGA they are taking a huge level of risk with this, they simply have to deliver and ensure their partners deliver no matter what.

They could have had some kind of insurance policy of keeping some units on and seeing how the stock beds in before placing the next order but they haven't. There was not much risk mitigation in this bid and at the end of the day it's all about how it is going to be delivered, they have to deliver 100% what they say they will, there is not any margin of error in this.

 

[306024]

Well this thread has been red hot for some reason. Amusing reading in places.

I'm waiting for all the excitement to die down and await further facts after the two week 'cooling off period'. There are no doubt huge logistical challenges with this ambitious bid, and a few potential operating headaches to follow if all the timetable schemes are realised.

One thing the Anglia route lacks is stabling capacity, even with a new depot at Manningtree. Given the previous use of the land, hope they don't find too many nasties in the soil when they start digging.

After years of penny pinching, we have suddenly won the Euromillions. Whatever your thoughts, it is difficult to see how First or NX would have been a better bid.

 

[387star]

Any link to the branding of this new franchise or not known yet? can't find much on aga's own website about it

AGA have already changed their name twice in four years of operation... from greater anglia to abellio greater anglia with the greater anglia written differently

very similar to national express- half way through their tenure they changed it from 'one' to national express east anglia

seems it is hard to come up with a good name for this region?!

 

[306024]

Great Eastern Railway would do fine. So that won't happen.

 

[Bald Rick]

Great Eastern Railway would do fine. So that won't happen.

Abellio Norfolk Great Eastern Railway seems appropriate.

 

[EssexCommuter]

Any link to the branding of this new franchise or not known yet? can't find much on aga's own website about it

AGA have already changed their name twice in four years of operation... from greater anglia to abellio greater anglia with the greater anglia written differently

very similar to national express- half way through their tenure they changed it from 'one' to national express east anglia

seems it is hard to come up with a good name for this region?!

National Express had to change the name as they hadn't thought it through..."The next service at platform 1 is the 1501 One service to London Liverpool Street" or similar.

 

[grumblingalong]

National Express had to change the name as they hadn't thought it through..."The next service at platform 1 is the 1501 One service to London Liverpool Street" or similar.

NX group were also going through a "brand consolidation" exercise, hence the attempted universal livery same as the buses - something else Abellio have been much better at implementing.

 

[HH]

National Express had to change the name as they hadn't thought it through..."The next service at platform 1 is the 1501 One service to London Liverpool Street" or similar.

I recall the day we learnt of the name One, a few weeks before the Franchise started, and bursting out laughing. My theory was that it was like the Emperor's new clothes - someone important championed it and no-one had the balls to tell them what a dreadful idea it was. Apart from the obvious announcement issues they were moving from First to One...

 

[Geswedey]

AGA is pretty much fully DOO anyway and I can't see local trains around Norwich going DOO quite out in the sticks that way

I am fully aware of the extent of DOO on AGA, the reason I asked the question was related to the franchise specs for Northern and TPE which both had clauses re DCO / DOO with on train staff for ticketing and customer service only.

If I recall correctly DOO (p) is not allowed on non TCB lines, can anyone confirm this?

If this is the case would it also preclude DCO operation.

 

[urpert]

I'm not sure if it would be that big of a problem with the Stadler units, since they are just based on their Continental cousins which has been produced since 2004.

Correct me if I'm wrong though!

Also anecdotal based on very frequent Tramlink use, but the Stadler trams seemed to enter squadron service very quickly and seem to be exceptionally well screwed together (aside from some slightly squeaky gangways on the tightest curves)

 

[Domh245]

Also anecdotal based on very frequent Tramlink use, but the Stadler trams seemed to enter squadron service very quickly and seem to be exceptionally well screwed together (aside from some slightly squeaky gangways on the tightest curves)

And the clunk as (what I'm guessing is) the obstacle deflector hits the track coming up the ramp into Wimbledon.

 

[WatcherZero]

Didn't they realise after they got them that they were out of gauge, limiting the routes they could operate? Or was it them not being able to keep the same timings due to weaker acceleration?

 

[Domh245]

Didn't they realise after they got them that they were out of gauge, limiting the routes they could operate? Or was it them not being able to keep the same timings due to weaker acceleration?

I'd always heard it was the latter (and experience tended to reveal that if there was a Stadler, it was about 12 minutes behind the preceding tram, and the one behind was about 2 minutes behind it!)

 

[fgwrich]

Abellio Norfolk Great Eastern Railway seems appropriate.

Well, it would suit them going from Grand Abellio Greater Anglia - A True name for what I feel these plans are. So Abellio Norfolk Great Eastern Railway seems like a good transition!

 

[Geswedey]

Any grumblers about the rolling stock in use now and the dates for replacement should bear in mind the fact that Government wanted to change the way services were franchised and only originally let a short term franchise subsequently subject to a direct award extension.

No short term franchisee is likely to order new stock that is not going to arrive during their franchise term.

If a longer term GEML franchise had been allowed starting in 2012 replacement rolling stock could possibly have been in service already.

In my opinion don't blame the operator blame government for its franchising policy decisions.

 

[urpert]

Didn't they realise after they got them that they were out of gauge, limiting the routes they could operate? Or was it them not being able to keep the same timings due to weaker acceleration?

They had to lengthen one of the platforms at Beckenham Jon by about half a metre so the rearmost door would be on a level bit of platform, but I'm not aware of any other gauging issues. They operate on all routes interchangeably with the CR2000s now (which incidentally are a pretty solid product too, given they're basically the same age as those terrible things they bought for Birmingham and have already replaced).

 

[Bald Rick]

Well, it would suit them going from Grand Abellio Greater Anglia - A True name for what I feel these plans are. So Abellio Norfolk Great Eastern Railway seems like a good transition!

I'm glad someone got the joke

I thought I may have to retrieve a coat.
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If a longer term GEML franchise had been allowed starting in 2012 replacement rolling stock could possibly have been in service already.

Except that had the full franchise been let in 2012, there wouldn't have been much new rolling stock because:

a) it was all 4 years younger, and less easy to justify full replacement
b) the 'price' of money in the worldwide capital markets was much higher (and therefore lease costs for new trains comparatively higher than they are now )
c) the assessment of franchise bids did not place much (if any) weight on the quality side of matters - the best financial case won.

 

[HH]

c) the assessment of franchise bids did not place much (if any) weight on the quality side of matters - the best financial case won.

And it doesn't now? While it's theoretically possible for a bid to come out ahead on quality, in practice this is much more difficult to achieve. At best the second financial case must be pretty close to the first. You couldn't spend an extra billion on RS and hope to win with a higher quality score. The biggest change is that new trains got cheaper.

 

[Bald Rick]

And it doesn't now? While it's theoretically possible for a bid to come out ahead on quality, in practice this is much more difficult to achieve. At best the second financial case must be pretty close to the first. You couldn't spend an extra billion on RS and hope to win with a higher quality score. The biggest change is that new trains got cheaper.

Previously, the best financial bid won, and that was that.

The quality score makes a significant difference now. I'm led to believe (I.e. I don't know as I'm not involved, but have heard on the well informed grapevine) that at least one recent franchise was won by a bidder that did not have the best financial case.

Don't forget that Abellio aren't spending 'an extra billion' on rolling stock. All they are laying is the higher lease cost of new vs old, and only then for 9 years. The extra quality score almost certainly outweighs the additional cost. (Which, as you correctly say, is lower than it might have been more recently).