GEML franchise 2016

[asylumxl]

Latest rumour is that Abellio were preferred bidder, with FirstGroup second. However, following Brexit there is a deal of uncertainty, not least about the price of rolling stock from Alstom. No bidder is going to confirm their bid in these circumstances, given that the risks all lie with them.

DfT are now stuck between the rock of July 21 parliamentary recess and the hard place of a 15 October franchise end date. The smart money has to be on some sort of Direct Award to Abellio, while DfT sort the mess out. I'm not hearing any rumours that DoR has been put on standby.

I can't see DOR operating anything under a Tory government unless they were the last resort.

 

[TheEdge]

Can Abellio in theory turn round and refuse a direct award? They've obviously had direct award after direct award and now its just looking like longer and longer treading water. Given the amount of money and time that Abellio (and First and NX) must have invested in bidding could they at a corporate level start getting funny with the DfT?

 

[grumblingalong]

Can Abellio in theory turn round and refuse a direct award? They've obviously had direct award after direct award and now its just looking like longer and longer treading water. Given the amount of money and time that Abellio (and First and NX) must have invested in bidding could they at a corporate level start getting funny with the DfT?

If they can't I'm more than happy to start being funny with the DfT on their behalf.

 

[BuryBlue]

I can't see DOR operating anything under a Tory government unless they were the last resort.

There has been a change in management, however. Maybe things will be different. Could well be a choice between DOR or a direct award.

 

[ainsworth74]

Can Abellio in theory turn round and refuse a direct award?

Absolutely! That's what's happened over in SWT land. Stagecoach and the DfT were unable to agree terms for a direct award so the DfT have had to run a full franchise procurement process instead.

So Abellio would be well within their rights to simply say 'no thanks!' to the DfT if the terms of the direct award are not to their liking.

 

[Z12XE]

So Abellio would be well within their rights to simply say 'no thanks!' to the DfT if the terms of the direct award are not to their liking.

Given that it's getting fairly desperate to sort something, surely Abellio could find themselves with the upper hand, and be able to name the price for keeping the current setup going for a while?

 

[Dave1987]

This is all turning into a complete shambles.

 

[HH]

This is all turning into a complete shambles.

I think the Rail Minister should resign.

 

[TheEdge]

New rumours. Mobilisation of refurb and renovation contractors, possibly indication of a direct award or full franchise. 7am Monday

 

[Dave1987]

I think the Rail Minister should resign.

Well they have both gone which I'm very happy about.

 

[3141]

I think the Rail Minister should resign.

As she has just done so, did you have inside knowledge, or does this demonstrate the power of your posts to turn what you say into reality?

Actually it may be the Southern situation which has decided her to go.

 

[Alfie1014]

This is all turning into a complete shambles.

Not a good day out there on the ground today either, derailment in Orient Way CS this morning resulted in a number of cancellations and short forms, most on West Anglia but some on GE and this evening the 16:30 Liv St - Norwich is being advertised as 8 car 321 (not calling at Colchester) and the 17:50 is being advertised as 4 car 321 (not calling at Colchester and Manningtree).

Lets hope that Monday brings some good news one way or the other!

 

[DasLunatic]

Not a good day out there on the ground today either, derailment in Orient Way CS this morning resulted in a number of cancellations and short forms, most on West Anglia but some on GE and this evening the 16:30 Liv St - Norwich is being advertised as 8 x 321 (not calling at Colchester) and the 17:50 is being advertised as 4 x 321 (not calling at Colchester and Manningtree).

Lets hope that Monday brings some good news one way or the other!

Why would Norwich need a 32-coach train? THe platforms on the GEML are only suitable for 3x321, aren't they?

 

[dk1]

Today has been pretty rubbish on INTERCITY Anglia. A troublesome set in Liverpool Street was just as troublesome this morning, the other set stabled at the southern end was blocked in at Orient Way by the operating incident (derailment in plain English) & then the 13:00 down was declared a failure with an AWS fault.

Probably the worst affected where those booked on the always heavily loaded 08:30 up which was caped then the following 09:00 was a mere 4-car Dusty Bin so no catering, Wifi or ant 1st class to speak of. With 1000s trying to get to Lattitude, the misery continues tonight.

 

[transportphoto]

It seems my journey to and from Brentwood today with was very lucky to be unaffected then!

 

[F Great Eastern]

Latest rumour is that Abellio were preferred bidder, with FirstGroup second. However, following Brexit there is a deal of uncertainty, not least about the price of rolling stock from Alstom.

That is in line with what I heard as well.

May prove a blessing in disguise if it's all called off though, depending on what happens next because I wasn't that impressed with the rolling stock rumours I heard and was hoping for something better.

 

[northwichcat]

May prove a blessing in disguise if it's all called off though, depending on what happens next because I wasn't that impressed with the rolling stock rumours I heard and was hoping for something better.

If bidders are concerned about financing new stock due to Brexit, couldn't delaying the award result in solutions being found which don't involve a new rolling stock order?

 

[Geswedey]

New rolling stock is required as part of the franchise agreement and also to conform to DDA requirements.

 

[chubs]

If bidders are concerned about financing new stock due to Brexit, couldn't delaying the award result in solutions being found which don't involve a new rolling stock order?

If you send 442's and pacers our way all hell will break loose!

 

[northwichcat]

If you send 442's and pacers our way all hell will break loose!

As far as I'm aware the following other options are available:

DMUs:
D-Trains
156s (5 from Scotrail which Northern aren't taking on)
153s (released by Northern and GWR excluding the 1 going to EMT and the few going to LM)
22 x 185s (or those could go to another operator to release Sprinters or 170s for Anglia)

EMUs:
Lots of 319s
321/9s
322s
Possibly 323s and 350/4s (The proposed plan to have all the 323s and 350s at LM might not workout)
365s (now GWR have secured extra 387s)

 

[HH]

185s would be a disaster on EA routes.

 

[northwichcat]

185s would be a disaster on EA routes.

Hence why I said they could go to another operator to release Sprinters and/or Turbostars to Anglia.

 

[DasLunatic]

Owing to the 90mph limits south of Shenfield, could 323s work on the Southend/Southminster services in sets of three or four? This would free up some extra Bins to do some WAML work or strengthening other services, which would in turn allow for some of the 317s to go into storage or Rotherham. However, this would all depend on whether 321s are cleared up that way...

 

[DimTim]

We would love the 317 in Rotherham but could you also provide the string for them to run under?

 

[DasLunatic]

We would love the 317 in Rotherham but could you also provide the string for them to run under?

I meant Booths...

 

[DimTim]

I'm aware

But they would be an improvement on pacers!

 

[DasLunatic]

I'm aware

But they would be an improvement on pacers!

Anything would be better than a Pacer, but there are many other threads for you to vent your hatred of Pacers in.

 

[Z12XE]

As far as I'm aware the following other options are available:
Cut various hand me down options

Careful, you're sounding like a National Express bargain basement bid!

 

[asylumxl]

Careful, you're sounding like a National Express bargain basement bid!

Cos getting the 350/4 would be awful, they're so old and decrepit. [emoji6]

 

[DasLunatic]

Cos getting the 350/4 would be awful, they're so old and decrepit. [emoji6]

The 350/4s would only be useful if Siemens made them compatible with the 360s AGA already has, and they may need to be re-geared back to 100mph. That'd be too costly for NX :P