Future routes for Open Access operators

[Philip]

In terms of non-London routes, I think Manchester-Settle-Carlisle would offer some potential at least at the weekend, as there is a tourism market for the line itself and more so to the Yorkshire Dales National Park which the line would be convenient for. The current available routes from Manchester to the S&C and Dales are much more long-winded than running via Bolton, Blackburn and Hellifield would be.

Possibly Birmingham to Southport or Windermere on weekends would be quite well-used too?

 

[Clarence Yard]

Indeed, there is a big question as to why the franchised / concession operator doesn't just take over Hull Trains, Grand Central and Lumo at the expiry of their access rights, given the market has been proven and the operators seem to be viable, with consolidation of those operations into everything else.

Why wouldn't GBR just operate trains to Hull from 2032 instead of further rights being given to Hull Trains?

The Competition Act. That is why the ORR awards track access rights, not NR (or GBR in future) - to stop monopolistic behaviour like that.

In a previous EC franchise competition, such an idea (for HT) was floated. M’learned friends got involved as well as the competition authorities and it had to be hurriedly withdrawn.

To make your idea work, you need to have legislation that either excludes UK passenger rail from the Competition Act and/or finishes OA on UK Rail. The latter may be costly, especially if you use Part J of the Network Code to enact it.

 

[The Planner]

In terms of non-London routes, I think Manchester-Settle-Carlisle would offer some potential at least at the weekend, as there is a tourism market for the line itself and more so to the Yorkshire Dales National Park which the line would be convenient for. The current available routes from Manchester to the S&C and Dales are much more long-winded than running via Bolton, Blackburn and Hellifield would be.

Possibly Birmingham to Southport or Windermere on weekends would be quite well-used too?

Brummies don't go north, they go to Barmouth or Weston Super Mud.

 

[Philip]

Brummies don't go north, they go to Barmouth or Weston Super Mud.

Why's that? Barmouth and Weston Super-Mare are probably further away than Southport at least and similar distance to the Lake District.

 

[zwk500]

Why's that? Barmouth and Weston Super-Mare are probably further away than Southport at least and similar distance to the Lake District.

Because the South West has more sun.

 

[Ayman Ilham]

Because the South West has more sun.

Plus, Wales is generally cheaper to go on holiday.

 

[cle]

exactly my point. A lot.of proposals on this thread are looking at lines with spare capacity and then trying to work out how they might justify running a traon over them, rsther than identifying a market and then solving the capacity issue.

They are chicken and egg, or co-dependent - it doesn’t fly without both. The order of which were either not privy to, or doesn’t really matter.

W/S might have a better shot today, with more OA action and maybe less aggressive protectionism due to the **** show / survival mode of franchising and govt mgmt right now.

For instance, I cannot see how Marylebone-Cov/BNS is less egregious than Lumo which shares both termini with its incumbent. Lessons learned on positioning the model, and have another bash.

Chiltern is less Express these days too. Might be potential for a higher-end operator up that route.

 

[zwk500]

They are chicken and egg, or co-dependent - it doesn’t fly without both. The order of which were either not privy to, or doesn’t really matter.

It's not chicken-and-egg at all. The Market must be there before even bothering to look at whether or not the capacity is there. By and large, it's easier to squeeze half a dozen paths in a day than it is to manufacture a profit-bearing market.
Of course the train only runs if capacity can be found, but the Market is established first.

 

[cle]

And yet you would only establish that market if the paths were theoretically available.

You’re saying that actually they probably are, everywhere - with a squeeze. I suggest that isn’t the case and capacity is fairly table stakes for examining a market.

 

[zwk500]

And yet you would only establish that market if the paths were theoretically available.

Not at all. A Market (demand) will exist independent of the capacity. People don't sit at home saying 'well I wanted to go to London today but there's a bit of a bottleneck timetabling trains so I'm going to stay home' - they drive instead.

You’re saying that actually they probably are, everywhere - with a squeeze. I suggest that isn’t the case and capacity is fairly table stakes for examining a market.

I'm not saying the paths are available everywhere. I'm saying that by and large, the pathing is a technical exercise but you can't just tell somebody in Liverpool that they now want to travel to Brighton 5 days a week.
Put simply: if there is demand but no capacity, work might be done to get the train running.
If there is capacity but no demand, the train is not going to run.

 

[daodao]

I think Manchester-Settle-Carlisle would offer some potential

Luftmensch.

 

[Bald Rick]

For instance, I cannot see how Marylebone-Cov/BNS is less egregious than Lumo which shares both termini with its incumbent. Lessons learned on positioning the model, and have another bash.

It’s reasonable to assume that if Lumo was proposed today, it wouldn’t get approved.

 

[Bartsimho]

It’s reasonable to assume that if Lumo was proposed today, it wouldn’t get approved.

And Lumo seems to have worked. I think.

That just shows we look at railway proposals wrong if it does work

 

[zwk500]

And Lumo seems to have worked. I think.

That just shows we look at railway proposals wrong if it does work

It depends what it's done though. Lumo is making money, but at who's expense?

If its easyjet, then we're grinning. If it's taking passengers off LNER that's not necessarily a great outcome for the taxpayer.

 

[occone]

I was thinking it would be great to have a South West based open access operator (let's say based in Bristol) to take the wind out of CrossCountry's sails with their monopoly between the SW and Birmingham, and Birmingham to Edinburgh.

XC services are regularly standing room only, so there's clearly excess demand that isn't being taken advantage of. XC also represent bad value for money and an uncomfortable journey (unless you get the HST), something competition could improve.

As a draft:
* Bristol to Doncaster (hand over to LNER for Edinburgh)
* Bristol to Manchester (always hell with XC on the WCML)
* Bristol to Peterborough (express only)
* Bristol to Crewe (bonus route, as TfW also regularly packed out)

 

[daodao]

I was thinking it would be great to have a South West based open access operator (let's say based in Bristol) to take the wind out of CrossCountry's sails with their monopoly between the SW and Birmingham, and Birmingham to Edinburgh.

XC services are regularly standing room only, so there's clearly excess demand that isn't being taken advantage of. XC also represent bad value for money and an uncomfortable journey (unless you get the HST), something competition could improve.

As a draft:
* Bristol to Doncaster (hand over to LNER for Edinburgh)
* Bristol to Manchester (always hell with XC on the WCML)
* Bristol to Peterborough (express only)
* Bristol to Crewe (bonus route, as TfW also regularly packed out)

Bristol to Crewe (or even Liverpool) via the North and West main line (Maindee East curve and Shrewsbury) might be feasible/worthwhile and would not be particularly abstractive. In theory, one could combine the Bristol to Manchester and Bristol to Crewe services, but there would be major capacity issues in crossing the WCML at Crewe and getting into Manchester from Cheadle Hulme or Heald Green North Junction northwards, leaving aside terminating capacity in Manchester.

 

[JonathanH]

XC also represent bad value for money and an uncomfortable journey (unless you get the HST), something competition could improve.

What makes you think an OAO could make money or offer cheaper fares on XC-type routes? Moreover, how could they not be primarily abstractive?

 

[Snow1964]

I was thinking it would be great to have a South West based open access operator (let's say based in Bristol) to take the wind out of CrossCountry's sails with their monopoly between the SW and Birmingham, and Birmingham to Edinburgh.

XC services are regularly standing room only, so there's clearly excess demand that isn't being taken advantage of. XC also represent bad value for money and an uncomfortable journey (unless you get the HST), something competition could improve.

As a draft:
* Bristol to Doncaster (hand over to LNER for Edinburgh)
* Bristol to Manchester (always hell with XC on the WCML)
* Bristol to Peterborough (express only)
* Bristol to Crewe (bonus route, as TfW also regularly packed out)

I do agree that XC treats the South West fairly poorly with short often crowded trains, and relatively high fares.

But I would extend some of those Bristol trains to Southampton, timed to meet the cruise ship market. There are definitely people travelling from Welsh border counties and West Midlands to Southampton who are changing at Bristol (the big suitcases give it away)

 

[Bartsimho]

It depends what it's done though. Lumo is making money, but at who's expense?

If its easyjet, then we're grinning. If it's taking passengers off LNER that's not necessarily a great outcome for the taxpayer.

I mean any operator making money is a bonus with the current state of the railways. It would probably need more analysis which isn't available to the public is the route makes money (have all intermediate journeys count towards it as well so York-Newcastle). I think it will have taken passengers off the airlines though as the London Airports being quite far out of London and the stress of an airport will drive people away from the airlines to the trains.

I do agree that XC treats the South West fairly poorly with short often crowded trains, and relatively high fares.

But I would extend some of those Bristol trains to Southampton, timed to meet the cruise ship market. There are definitely people travelling from Welsh border counties and West Midlands to Southampton who are changing at Bristol (the big suitcases give it away)

Run Swansea, Cardiff Central, Newport, Bristol Temple Meads, Bath Spa, Westbury, Salisbury, Southampton Central?

 

[zwk500]

I was thinking it would be great to have a South West based open access operator (let's say based in Bristol) to take the wind out of CrossCountry's sails with their monopoly between the SW and Birmingham, and Birmingham to Edinburgh.

XC services are regularly standing room only, so there's clearly excess demand that isn't being taken advantage of. XC also represent bad value for money and an uncomfortable journey (unless you get the HST), something competition could improve.

As a draft:
* Bristol to Doncaster (hand over to LNER for Edinburgh)
* Bristol to Manchester (always hell with XC on the WCML)
* Bristol to Peterborough (express only)
* Bristol to Crewe (bonus route, as TfW also regularly packed out)

The issue is to pass the revenue abstraction test you'd need to avoid Birmingham New Street - this isn't the end of the world for stuff heading towards Derby/Leicester as you just use the avoiding chord at St Andrew's Jn but would be a right pain for stuff heading to Crewe or Manchester as you either need to run through New Street or go round the back of the houses with the Sutton Park Line. You'd also be dropping a significant amount of revenue by avoiding New Street.

I mean any operator making money is a bonus with the current state of the railways.

HMT don't see it that way. If all you do is take fares away from the nationalised TOCs then effectively the OAO is sucking subsidy through the pipe.

It would probably need more analysis which isn't available to the public is the route makes money (have all intermediate journeys count towards it as well so York-Newcastle).

Lumos accounts (showing profit or loss) will be public record at Companies house.

I think it will have taken passengers off the airlines though as the London Airports being quite far out of London and the stress of an airport will drive people away from the airlines to the trains.

So as it happens there is a fair amount of anecdotal evidence that much of Lumo's traffic is traffic that wouldn't have otherwise gone by train (a mix of modes), so it has been a net positive for the railway. I don't know what the breakdowns are, but the wider point still stands that an OAO that makes money by abstracting from franchised TOCs is *not* an automatic benefit to the system and its 'social good'.

 

[JonathanH]

Run Swansea, Cardiff Central, Newport, Bristol Temple Meads, Bath Spa, Westbury, Salisbury, Southampton Central?

That isn't going to get anywhere near passing a 'not primarily abstractive' test, and has no chance of happening.

 

[swt_passenger]

But I would extend some of those Bristol trains to Southampton, timed to meet the cruise ship market. There are definitely people travelling from Welsh border counties and West Midlands to Southampton who are changing at Bristol (the big suitcases give it away)

Easier said than done. Cruise timetables are not as set as railway timetables. Various charter services associated with cruises from Southampton have been tried and failed over recent years, and they didn’t have to deal with ‘fare abstraction’ tests…

 

[zwk500]

Easier said than done. Cruise timetables are not as set as railway timetables. Various charter services associated with cruises from Southampton have been tried and failed over recent years, and they didn’t have to deal with ‘fare abstraction’ tests…

Also, Cruise ship embarkation and disembarkation especially at the start or end of the cruise is not a quick process, with boarding times staggered over hours sometimes. Also, the majority of traffic for Southampton cruises is heading to/from London - either central London as tourists or Heathrow for flight transfers.

 

[Bartsimho]

Lumos accounts (showing profit or loss) will be public record at Companies house.

I was talking about LNER and if they lost revenue Post-Lumo as to Pre-Lumo

 

[JonathanH]

I was talking about LNER and if they lost revenue Post-Lumo as to Pre-Lumo

Very difficult to tell, because their own growth is likely to be being suppressed by Lumo taking some of the overall growth in the London to Newcastle / Edinburgh market.

 

[Bartsimho]

Very difficult to tell, because their own growth is likely to be being suppressed by Lumo taking some of the overall growth in the London to Newcastle / Edinburgh market.

I guess a growth projection from the OLR takeover by percentages and compare those to when Lumo started to see if there was a change in the trend

 

[Nick Ashwell]

I was talking about LNER and if they lost revenue Post-Lumo as to Pre-Lumo

LNER are a privately limited company above a certain size so have the same reporting requirements as Lumo

 

[Clarence Yard]

Comparative growth percentages between operators won’t tell you much because the market for (all modes) transport between x and y is never still. And different operators are after different market segments. Comparative “all rail” growth percentages between destinations is more instructive in setting out what you should be getting from a flow.

It is the total annual rail revenue on London - Edinburgh that will tell you what is going on here. And has LNER suffered a reduction in their revenue in year 1 of Lumo and if so, by how much and how will it behave in year 2? Is it a temporary loss or even a loss at all? GNER tried to argue that Hull Trains was abstractive and got absolutely burned in the High Court on that part of their court case when HT easily proved otherwise.

I can tell you that Lumo isn’t terribly interested in what LNER does - the airlines are the ones they watch because, from the evidence they have so far collected, that’s where their punters have largely come from.

 

[Iskra]

Does anyone see any potential for OA competition on the MML?

 

[zwk500]

Does anyone see any potential for OA competition on the MML?

Not easily. Abstraction would be your first hurdle - EMR have already covered most calling patterns so difficult to see an untapped market involving London and then you have the capacity crunch at the southern end to try and find a reasonable path through.