Future of Northern's Current Fleet

[ENC Rail]

Disclaimer - this is my first time creating a thread so apologies if anything is wrong!


With Northern currently in the process of ordering a new fleet of trains, if got me wondering what will happen to Northern's current fleet once these new trains enter service.

From what I've heard the 195s and 331s are staying with Northern?


My predictions are:

For the Sprinters, I'd imagine the 150s, 155s and 156s will be scrapped (hopefully a few units will be preserved) though maybe some of the 158s could go to other operators, such as ScotRail?

The 170s will probably find a home elsewhere, presumably with either ScotRail, EMR or XC (or whatever they end up as under GBR).

As with the earlier Sprinters, I'd imagine the 323s will be scrapped (again, hopefully a unit or two will be preserved).

The 333s are an interesting one - they will be around 30-35 when replaced, so will probably be scrapped as there are only 16 units and other operators probably won't want a micro-fleet.

The 769s will probably be scrapped too, due to their age and reliability record.


What do you think will happen to these trains?

Any responses welcome!

 

[D365]

Just to clarify - you are speculating exclusively on the future of Northern’s current fleet, once they (as in the units) have been stood down by Northern?

As opposed to any interim units that Northern may deploy whilst awaiting their new train fleet?

 

[ENC Rail]

Just to clarify - you are speculating exclusively on the future of Northern’s current fleet, once they (as in the units) have been stood down by Northern?

Yes, where Northern's current fleet could go once Northern are done with them.

 

[Northerngirl]

I might be a bit bias with my hate for civites , but I think 170s to xc, and everything else to the scrap heap. Being serious though, Id bin everything BR, 333s to scotrail, 170s to xc, and i think 331s & 195s should be used as council ran metro services in liverpool, Leeds & Manchester, and everything else replaced with new trains

 

[ENC Rail]

333s to scotrail

Presumably for the Glasgow metro services? The 333s would probably be a good short term solution to replace some of the 318s/320s until new trains arrive.

 

[Trainguy34]

Presumably for the Glasgow metro services? The 333s would probably be a good short term solution to replace some of the 318s/320s until new trains arrive.

If we went extremely speculative, I'd even say if they reinstated the South Suburban Loop in Edinburgh they could run those and perhaps Tweedbank!

 

[bluenoxid]

A lot of this will be down to procurement and rolling stock delivery for other operators.

I would be very surprised if the 333s made it to Scotland. There would have to be significant issues with fleet availability to justify adding a relatively small fleet to the operations there. The 333s are 4 car 23m units compared to 3 car 20m units of the 318/320. Would the routes they operate cope with longer units (even if they removed the 4th carriage)?

It will be interesting to watch how the smaller 153 fleets evolve in Scotland and Wales. Will they see the class 158 fleet as an opportunity?

 

[deltic08]

I might be a bit bias with my hate for civites , but I think 170s to xc, and everything else to the scrap heap. Being serious though, Id bin everything BR, 333s to scotrail, 170s to xc, and i think 331s & 195s should be used as council ran metro services in liverpool, Leeds & Manchester, and everything else replaced with new trains

It depends on how many new trains are bi modal to replace all 15X except 158s. 158s would then run the Whitby branch, Durham lines, Ashington branch, Settle-Carlisle and York/Sheffield-Hull-Scarborough I think Northern will retain 333s until they are only fit for scrap.

 

[D365]

If we went extremely speculative, I'd even say if they reinstated the South Suburban Loop in Edinburgh they could run those and perhaps Tweedbank!

Partial electrification is being deployed on the Borders line. That automatically rules out the use of cascaded stock.

 

[stevieinselby]

With the timescales planned for the rollout of the new fleet, Northern will be keeping all of the current fleet until they are life-expired – and in some cases likely beyond that point
It looks very unlikely on current plans that any of the fleet will have any other role to play on the mainline railway before they are retired – of course, the big question mark is what GBR will choose to do, and whether there will be any kind of rationalisation or reshuffling of units that isn't on the table at the moment.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

I think:
150s, 155s, 156s, 769s all scrap asap. (early-mid 2030s)

158s scrapped in phase 2
323s and 333s scrapped in phase 2

170s scrapped in the potential phase 3

195s to go to the North-East and Cumbrian Coast where there is little use for bi-modes.
331s unlikely to change.

 

[Bletchleyite]

195s to go to the North-East and Cumbrian Coast where there is little use for bi-modes.

The 2 cars are designed for branch lines, that was the whole point of building them as buried cabs are quite expensive if you only ever intend to run them as 4s. I suspect we will see them everywhere 2 cars presently operate solo even where there is a bit of electrification, such as Ormskirk-Preston and the Atherton line unless it's Metrolinked.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

I suspect we will see them everywhere 2 cars presently operate solo even where there is a bit of electrification, such as ... the Atherton line unless it's Metrolinked.

The Atherton line is supposed to be all 3 or 4 cars. Becoming tram-train has been proposed for such a long time there's no real idea when it will actually happen.
They just get short formed so much in the most recent timetable change they permanantly short formed them (which doesn't make them any quieter).

I would imagine it would be benefitial to have all the 195s in the same depot, and Heaton makes sense to be that depot.

 

[ainsworth74]

I would be very surprised if the 333s made it to Scotland. There would have to be significant issues with fleet availability to justify adding a relatively small fleet to the operations there. The 333s are 4 car 23m units compared to 3 car 20m units of the 318/320. Would the routes they operate cope with longer units (even if they removed the 4th carriage)?

I reckon they'll go on the scrap heap. Whilst they look great and I think are good units from a passenger perspective they've been mechanically troublesome and by the time the new fleet is being rolled out they'll be 30+ years old. Okay you can often get 40 odd years out of an EMU but I reckon for a small and non-standard fleet like this (there's only 16 units) they'll struggle to find a new home and so I think the cutters torch will beckon.

 

[skyhigh]

Whilst they look great and I think are good units from a passenger perspective they've been mechanically troublesome

I think that's a little unfair - from the most recent figures I believe they are more reliable than the 331s...

 

[ainsworth74]

I think that's a little unfair - from the most recent figures I believe they are more reliable than the 331s...

Aha I stand corrected! There was something rattling around in my head that they were struggling for availability. But perhaps I'm mixing them up with the 332s?

 

[bluenoxid]

It’s likely that upcoming fleets will be electric and battery. I think cascades will also be dependent on the level of work required to achieve an electric and battery operation for routes. That will be influenced by the range, charge rates (in motion and at a stop within a station) and infrastructure interventions required. Depending on range and other factors, the north east of England might not be the most difficult area to shift to an electric-battery unit operation. The main stabling points at Heaton and Darlington are electrified with many trains terminating at an electrified station. I appreciate that Whitby and the Cumbrian coast will have significantly more challenges to deal with.