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Future of HS2 2b (Eastern Leg deprioritised)

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deltic

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Or even somewhere remotely close to a population centre for staff and to reduce the ECS mileage, rather than in the middle of nowhere. Mind you, I suppose that's exactly how places like Crewe and Swindon grew up. Maybe there will be a new "railway town"!
Its not clear how much ECS workings there will be as trains will be split from 400m to 200m at Carlisle for onward travel to Scotland according to the press release although the size of the stabling looks massive.
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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Its not clear how much ECS workings there will be as trains will be split from 400m to 200m at Carlisle for onward travel to Scotland according to the press release although the size of the stabling looks massive.

And they will still apparently need some space at Polmadie.
It also reverses the Virgin/Avanti recent practice of running everything through to Glasgow/Edinburgh, with no Carlisle terminators.
Edinburgh WCML starters/terminators (at start/end of day) do presently run ECS to Polmadie which is 50-odd miles.
But you'd expect that to change when HS2 stock is running the primary Edinburgh-London service.
What are Polmadie and Craigentinny going to do when their primary WCML/ECML stock vanishes?
 
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WatcherZero

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Then there's the proposal to take a green-field site in "Annandale" (Quintinshill/Kirkpatrick, just north of Gretna Jn) to service HS2 stock on the northern WCML.
There's going to be a lot of ECS mileage with that plan.
Astonishing there is no existing railway-owned site in either the Carlisle or Glasgow areas that could be used.
Presumably the Scottish government will have a view on that.

The depot was going to be in Wigan, but then the Nimbys won out arguing that it would damage wetlands and so we lose the jobs potential it would have brought.
 

quantinghome

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Wasn't the western leg always going to go-ahead sooner than the eastern? Particularly as the eastern leg integration with NPR needs to be worked out carefully.

Update: looking at the plans for Manchester there doesn't appear to be any capacity provided for routing Leeds and NE services via Manchester, so it's safe to assume this won't be happening.
 
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Starmill

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Faster journeys from Nottingham to Leeds (probably including a crawl through Sheffield) are a relatively minor benefit now that Sheffield City council got its absurd wish for a city centre station.
Why? The Full Business Case 'Full Y Network' service plan offers 5tph between Toton and Leeds, none of which would stop at or run via Sheffield. There would also be one service to York only and one to York then stations to Newcastle. Sounds like a comprehensive service between the North East or Yorkshire and the East Midlands Hub to me.

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The Sop will be - an announcement almost simultaneously about MML electrification - I just feel it in my bones!
I imagine it's politically under consideration to approve MML electrification and upgrades while postponing the Eastern Leg, yes. They can also use ECML upgrades that would be done anyway (current works, and forthcoming ETCS) as cover and claim to be progressing York to Newcastle upgrades. There's strong political cover in that they can claim 'HS2 in the North' in Manchester, Liverpool, Cheshire, and Lancashire, and jobs and better trains for Scotland. If NPR can be clearly progressed that also gives some cover although I doubt much can be shown on that front before the election.

The problem arises with the specific localities. Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and the two cities would be apoplectic if it sounded like their new hub was just going to be binned. I think it's more likely that they will try and keep it out of the news for as long as possible while not doing much. They could also try and split it again, bringing in final design work on just Birmingham - Toton, which means the East Midlands Hub isn't cancelled but trains would have to use an electrified, upgraded Erwash Valley route thereafter. The government rejected a recommendation that would have seen Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield lose their HS2 services, plainly because they didn't want to upset local Conservatives. If Macclesfield keeps its HS2 service but Sheffield loses them it won't look good.

Of course there's also the possibility of competitive campaign pledges for the 2024 election. A new government could assume power at that point with a mandate to complete the 'Full Y Network'. Given we cannot hope for this to be open before 2035 that may not put a delay into the process.
 
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HSTEd

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Why? The Full Business Case 'Full Y Network' service plan offers 5tph between Toton and Leeds, none of which would stop at or run via Sheffield. There would also be one service to York only and one to York then stations to Newcastle. Sounds like a comprehensive service between the North East or Yorkshire and the East Midlands Hub to me.

I've not seen a stopping pattern since Meadowhall was axed.
Do you have link to one from after that time?
 

GRALISTAIR

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Of course there's also the possibility of competitive campaign pledges for the 2024 election. A new government could assume power at that point with a mandate to complete the 'Full Y Network'. Given we cannot hope for this to be open before 2035 that may not put a delay into the process.
And of course by 2024 - very substantial progress should have been made on the main bit of HS2 i.e. Euston/OOC to Birmingham
 

Ianno87

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I'm somewhat confused by this diagram, it's not very well laid out.

So northbound from East Midlands we have five to Leeds, one to York and one to Newcastle?

Correct. Plus 2 x Sheffield portions splitting off 2 of the above services.
 

Starmill

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Correct. Plus 2 x Sheffield portions splitting off 2 of the above services.
Exactly. To go with the main attraction of 4tph to the London HS2 stations, one of which calls at Birmingham Interchange, and 3tph to Birmingham Curzon St and possibly further services from Nottingham to Birmingham Curzon Street and suddenly Long Eaton looks like an incredibly attractive place to live.

If it actually gets authorised of course. And this is only the current modelled service.
 

raetiamann

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I fully expect an imminent announcement of MML electrification, with a completion target date of 2050!

The East Midlands has for years been at the bottom of regional infrastructure spend, and it's hard to see that changing.
 

quantinghome

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Today's update also states that the "integrated rail plan" which combines the Eastern leg and NPR will be released in December. So we'll see then I guess.
 

Purple Orange

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Wasn't the western leg always going to go-ahead sooner than the eastern? Particularly as the eastern leg integration with NPR needs to be worked out carefully.

Update: looking at the plans for Manchester there doesn't appear to be any capacity provided for routing Leeds and NE services via Manchester, so it's safe to assume this won't be happening.

The junction just before the HS2 tunnel is the provision for North East & Leeds services to access the Piccadilly HS2 platforms, then reverse out towards the Airport and Liverpool (or even Birmingham).
 

TrickyHex

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It's sad to see the same mistake looks likely to be made at Piccadilly as has been made with Curzon Street in terms of it not being a through station. Probably even worse in the case of Piccadilly in terms of the volume of reverse movements for NPR. Any time savings between Liverpool and Yorkshire from the high speed line will be lost by the time penalty of the reverse movement. That's before we even start on the rather round the houses alignment via Mcr Airport and Warrington from Piccadilly to Liverpool.

As mentioned earlier, a good first step would be to continue with the upgrade and full electrification of the existing line and take stock of the need for extra capacity and new lines once the Covid hiatus subsides.

On the Eastern leg is sad that Sheffield has shot itself in the foot by objecting to the now defunct Meadowhall option or using the old Sheffield Victoria station as a through station on the way to Leeds.
 

Purple Orange

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It's sad to see the same mistake looks likely to be made at Piccadilly as has been made with Curzon Street in terms of it not being a through station. Probably even worse in the case of Piccadilly in terms of the volume of reverse movements for NPR. Any time savings between Liverpool and Yorkshire from the high speed line will be lost by the time penalty of the reverse movement. That's before we even start on the rather round the houses alignment via Mcr Airport and Warrington from Piccadilly to Liverpool.

As mentioned earlier, a good first step would be to continue with the upgrade and full electrification of the existing line and take stock of the need for extra capacity and new lines once the Covid hiatus subsides.

On the Eastern leg is sad that Sheffield has shot itself in the foot by objecting to the now defunct Meadowhall option or using the old Sheffield Victoria station as a through station on the way to Leeds.

Oh no, I think the reverse option is the best option. What sort of time penalty for reversing do you think will take place to make travelling on high speed lines irrelevant?

As for the route, it makes complete sense to go via the north’s largest airport. The other routes are still available.
 

Killingworth

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As an Act of Parliament isn't expected before 2022 (surely not January, maybe by December) there's plenty of time for financial prevarication and constructional amendments to push that back even further.

Plenty of time to get on and complete MML electrification through Leicester, Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield to Leeds before Manchester starts to be dug up. Only to find there have been a further 4 'better' plans to be considered in that time to delay the project another 10-20 years?
 

WatcherZero

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Oh no, I think the reverse option is the best option. What sort of time penalty for reversing do you think will take place to make travelling on high speed lines irrelevant?

Perhaps not irrelevant particularly on the London services, but definitely on the NPR services. On say a 60 minute journey across the North in the middle your waiting for a driver to lock down his cab, walk the 400m length of the train and power up his new cab (minimum of 8 minutes) or you are stuck having to rotate drivers on every service to make it faster.
 

HSTEd

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Perhaps not irrelevant particularly on the London services, but definitely on the NPR services. On say a 60 minute journey across the North in the middle your waiting for a driver to lock down his cab, walk the 400m length of the train and power up his new cab (minimum of 8 minutes) or you are stuck having to rotate drivers on every service to make it faster.

If we have 15 trains per hour coming through, rotating drivers doesn't sound unreasonable.
And not all o the trains will be 400m unfortunately due to penny pinching!
 

Purple Orange

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Perhaps not irrelevant particularly on the London services, but definitely on the NPR services. On say a 60 minute journey across the North in the middle your waiting for a driver to lock down his cab, walk the 400m length of the train and power up his new cab (minimum of 8 minutes) or you are stuck having to rotate drivers on every service to make it faster.
NPR won’t be using 400m trains and why would it take longer than a reversal at New Street on XC or Piccadilly (Sheffield-Manc Airport)? Isn’t 8 mins a bit of a stretch?
 

HSTEd

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NPR won’t be using 400m trains and why would it take longer than a reversal at New Street on XC or Piccadilly (Sheffield-Manc Airport)? Isn’t 8 mins a bit of a stretch?
In some ways I prefer sharing the HS2 platforms because it means we wont end up with a value engineered underground station with 200m platform sor something that we will regret later.
 

Purple Orange

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In some ways I prefer sharing the HS2 platforms because it means we wont end up with a value engineered underground station with 200m platform sor something that we will regret later.

Oh you can guarantee that the underground platforms would be miserable.
 

Bald Rick

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Perhaps not irrelevant particularly on the London services, but definitely on the NPR services. On say a 60 minute journey across the North in the middle your waiting for a driver to lock down his cab, walk the 400m length of the train and power up his new cab (minimum of 8 minutes) or you are stuck having to rotate drivers on every service to make it faster.

That’s assuming there are drivers.
 

ABB125

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Oh you can guarantee that the underground platforms would be miserable.
I've been to Barcelona Sants (albeit in a rush so not paying much attention!) and it was rather dingy on the platforms. The concourse wasn't much better either!
Having said that, I would love to see a Stuttgart-21 style station in Manchester. Funnily enough, a new "Manchester-21" would almost certainly be at a right angle to the existing Piccadilly station, just like Stuttgart...

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That’s assuming there are drivers.
Well, we know Boris has floated the idea of driverless trains in the past. Just don't tell the RMT!
 

HSTEd

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I've been to Barcelona Sants (albeit in a rush so not paying much attention!) and it was rather dingy on the platforms. The concourse wasn't much better either!
Having said that, I would love to see a Stuttgart-21 style station in Manchester. Funnily enough, a new "Manchester-21" would almost certainly be at a right angle to the existing Piccadilly station, just like Stuttgart...

As I have said before, a new Manchester Central station is the best "money no object" option - but unfortunately money is certainly an object.
 

WatcherZero

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NPR won’t be using 400m trains and why would it take longer than a reversal at New Street on XC or Piccadilly (Sheffield-Manc Airport)? Isn’t 8 mins a bit of a stretch?

At average adult walking speed the distance would take 6 minutes, add a couple of minutes for the driver tasks
 

Nym

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Or join the classic lines slightly further south, around Ratcliffe-on-Soar maybe, for through-running into Nottingham and Derby. There's not much need for Toton station if you're not continuing HS2E further north.
Or at the ultimate value, join in around Litchfield and electrify from Birmingham to Derby via Burton both routes, potentially also the Chellaston Loop to get a quicker Nottingham journey time.

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At average adult walking speed the distance would take 6 minutes, add a couple of minutes for the driver tasks
Also, doesn't need to be the same driver.
 

WatcherZero

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The amount of times my train pulls in on time then we are standing waiting 10 minutes for a late guard, yeah not something to look forward too.
 
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