Future of class 458

[Big Jumby 74]

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[swt_passenger]

Only based on experience of the type in their early days, and second hand knowledge of the (serious) corrosion and other issues found during their re-configuration from 4 to 5 car format in 2014 onwards. If I were a betting man, my gut tells me that when they leave their present domain, in part due to recent national events and changes to commuting associated there with, I can foresee that they will never return, and will likely end up heading to South Wales (or similar) on a one way ticket? Anyone else have any views?

So you’ve decided they’re not being converted back to 4 car for the Portsmouth direct?

 

[Big Jumby 74]

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[43096]

Not at all. But given change of pattern of travelling etc, and also as a 12-458 formation they are too long (physically) for all but a couple of platforms at Waterloo (excluding the WIT), their use on said route as 12 cars, could have issues. They could be used as 8 cars on certain other Pompey services, thus releasing other (Desiro) stock for the PDL, but that's not for me to say!

What? A 12-458 is for operational purposes the same length as a 12-450. There's rather more than two platforms at Waterloo that can accommodate such a formation.

 

[Big Jumby 74]

A 12-458 is for operational purposes the same length as a 12-450

Not at all locations, nor from a planning/signalling angle.

There's rather more than two platforms at Waterloo

The last I knew, yes, but only three (I was being a tad lazy using the phrase 'a couple'), numbers 10, 16 & 17 IIRC. The reason is insufficient signal sighting for the outgoing driver of any such formation at all other '12 car' platforms.

 

[Energy]

Not at all locations, nor from a planning/signalling angle

A 4 car 458 is only 50cm longer than a 4 car 450...

 

[Big Jumby 74]

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[Energy]

The industry worked to: 4 450 = 81.6m, 4 458 = 82.41m. Thereby a 12 450 = 244.8m and a 12 458 = 247.23m, a difference of 2.43m in 12 car formation. Not much on the face of it, but enough to make a difference, particularly at Waterloo where there is little/no room to reposition signals/gantries.

Well the current plan is 12 car formations to replace 442s... so I don't think its really a problem.

 

[Big Jumby 74]

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[Doomotron]

The 458s are direct 442 replacements, meaning they'll be kept on express services unless plans have changed, which is ironic since 444s will be kept on the slow services. The purpose of the 458s and the 442s is specifically to prevent 450s being used on the Portsmouth Direct Line.

 

[Snow1964]

It is quite difficult to predict the post pandemic level of commuting, but there is some indication that Tuesday-Thursday might be growing back towards its pre Covid level. What seems to be happening is firms have realised that training/mentoring and team ideas and shared problem solving don’t work if people are remote, and working from home leaves a big skills gap, and kills any succession planning.

SWR was supposed to introduce thousands of extra seats into Waterloo (per the franchise launch press releases), the inner suburban was gaining 150 new class 707 vehicles and mainline was to gain 120 class 442 vehicles.

Instead the 442s didn’t happen, 68 class 458 vehicles are leaving, lost about 80 707 vehicles (so far), 48 class 456s and 16-24 class 455s (depending on what you count as dead), so currently 300+ vehicles down on plan 4 years ago.

Do you really think they could justify losing another 100+ (28x4) class 458 vehicles ?

I am aware that the 750 class 701s were suppose to replace 458s (and 455, 456, 707) but at the moment they remain mythical, it’s 33 months since first ones were due in service, and 19.5 months since final one was supposed to be in service. But even if they (eventually) go into service they were never designed for the mainline services.

 

[RobShipway]

It is quite difficult to predict the post pandemic level of commuting, but there is some indication that Tuesday-Thursday might be growing back towards its pre Covid level. What seems to be happening is firms have realised that training/mentoring and team ideas and shared problem solving don’t work if people are remote, and working from home leaves a big skills gap, and kills any succession planning.

SWR was supposed to introduce thousands of extra seats into Waterloo (per the franchise launch press releases), the inner suburban was gaining 150 new class 707 vehicles and mainline was to gain 120 class 442 vehicles.

Instead the 442s didn’t happen, 68 class 458 vehicles are leaving, lost about 80 707 vehicles (so far), 48 class 456s and 16-24 class 455s (depending on what you count as dead), so currently 300+ vehicles down on plan 4 years ago.

Do you really think they could justify losing another 100+ (28x4) class 458 vehicles ?

I am aware that the 750 class 701s were suppose to replace 458s (and 455, 456, 707) but at the moment they remain mythical, it’s 33 months since first ones were due in service, and 19.5 months since final one was supposed to be in service. But even if they (eventually) go into service they were never designed for the mainline services.

I think that the class 701's will replace class 458/450 units on the Reading/Windsor line services before the end of the year, possibly from the December timetable. The change of 458 to mainline services, will enable class 450 units to replace the class 707's that are moving to SouthEastern and then you will have the class 701's replace class 455 & 456 units.