Fuel Price Scaremongering

[mpthomson]

If we extend "fuel" beyond the petrol station, I note that heating oil, which is always a more volatile market, has risen from about 60p to about £1 per litre since the weekend. My local supplier is apparently caught between panicking customers and bulk suppliers who are restricting what they can sell.

Cheapest current quote we've seen is £1.29 a litre, up from the 54p a litre we paid in Jan. fortunately it's getting warmer and we've 70% of the tank left.

 

[jon0844]

Top story on BBC about oil prices. Like it or not, people are going to have a run on the petrol stations whatever the media says.

 

[Snow1964]

Diesel forecourt prices around me have risen ~15-20p from 138.9 to between 151.9 and 159.9 in the last week.

It's March, close to end of European heating oil season, when stocks tend to be low, and diesel fuel is close in spec to heating oil. (EL or extra light heating oil, the common Euro spec, is almost a refined EN590 which is basis for automotive diesel)

Lots more petrol stock available, hence why it has has typically only gone up 3-5p per litre

But these days, only 1 in 22 new cars is diesel powered, so more a problem for those with old diesel cars than majority of motorists

 

[jon0844]

EV sales are bound to surge now, although Octopus is temporarily pausing its EV focussed tariffs (Intelligent Octopus Go and the £30 flat-rate EV charging add-on) and others may follow.

Gas has risen quite a bit from around 4.2p per kWh to 7.11p today (I think). Luckily it's getting warmer, but energy costs are going to go up and this is surely going to impact the economy.

I can weather the storm because I have an EV, solar and batteries. I'm making good money exporting energy right now, and having set up as a virtual power plant I am hopeful of making even more money in the coming weeks. And other people can and should be looking at this too.

 

[brad465]

EV sales are bound to surge now, although Octopus is temporarily pausing its EV focussed tariffs (Intelligent Octopus Go and the £30 flat-rate EV charging add-on) and others may follow.

Gas has risen quite a bit from around 4.2p per kWh to 7.11p today (I think). Luckily it's getting warmer, but energy costs are going to go up and this is surely going to impact the economy.

I can weather the storm because I have an EV, solar and batteries. I'm making good money exporting energy right now, and having set up as a virtual power plant I am hopeful of making even more money in the coming weeks. And other people can and should be looking at this too.

I can see public transport and walking/cycling use going up as well where motorists try to reduce petrol use. However at the same time, if cost of fuel is eating into other expenses, some public transport demand will drop as spenders reprioritise, especially regarding leisure travel.

 

[The exile]

So while the media might wish to emphasise the issues can be localised, it's more social media that causes the problems - and I am sure some people do it for kicks. There have been similar jokes about toilet paper in the last week, although thankfully I don't think anyone has gone out to stockpile.. although nothing would surprise me these days!

I was surveying the raffle prizes donated for a group I’m involved in last night and someone appeared to have donated a pack of 4 loo-rolls. The star prize, perhaps? (I then heard “that’s where I put them” and they were quickly removed!).

 

[DarloRich]

I really don’t get why people would go out and fill up just to save a few pounds. There would only be a value to doing it if it was possible to stockpile enough to be able to make an actual meaningful saving, which for most people is never going to be an option.

when I was really skint and struggling this kind of thing was a great worry. Honestly, it might only be £1/£2 difference but when that £1/2
has to come from another part of your limited budget you cant carry it.

You might say don't drive but that isn't really an option for many people in low paid work. Filling up NOW might only get you through a week or 2 of very limited driving but that is a week or 2 closer to the next pay day and a week or 2 further away from a pay day lender.

 

[MotCO]

I can see public transport and walking/cycling use going up as well where motorists try to reduce petrol use. However at the same time, if cost of fuel is eating into other expenses, some public transport demand will drop as spenders reprioritise, especially regarding leisure travel.

But the increase in the cost of diesel will impact bus companies, unless they are locked into a long term fixed price contract. That may mean that, coupled with higher NI costs, impact of employment right legislation, rates increases and other cost increases, this could send some smaller companies to the wall, or a reduction in services just when they are needed.

 

[Bikeman78]

Doesn't help that some local rags (yes Newsquest, I'm looking at you) are reporting "panic buying" which by all accounts hasn't been happening until said reports are published.

The same happened a few years ago. The media said there would be panic, and then there was panic. I don't care about fuel because I hardly ever drive. It did prevent me from getting near Sainsburys because the queue for fuel blocked access to the car park, so I went to Lidl instead.

 

[adc82140]

Sky News were at it today, telling people to only make necessary journeys. This is nonsense. Filled up today, because I was on was the red line, Morrisons, 132.9. Only 2p per litre more than this time last week, and no queue.

There's no fuel shortage. Our fuel does not come from the Gulf.

Biggest scalpers I've found so far, Rownhams Services on the M27: 170.9 for petrol. That's 35p per litre above the local average off the motorway.

It'll be the ruddy bog rolls next.

 

[Bikeman78]

On the latter point, who says we are? For many people especially in rural areas public transport is largely an irrelevance, and likely always will be. And it isn’t just rural areas, local to me there’s housing developments going up right left and centre on the outskirts or towns and in villages, which are essentially 100% reliant on residents having one or more cars. There doesn’t seem to be any strategy by anyone to create an actually functional country, so it’s hard to see why road users should bear a brunt of this.

Just thinking round here, if there was actually a desire to create a serious modal shift, you’d be wanting to re-open lines like Hatfield to St Albans Abbey, Welwyn to Dunstable, Hitchin to Bedford and posssibly even Welwyn to Hertford, all of which would need a frequency essentially allowing turn up and go usage (so at least every 30 mins). This isn’t going to happen for numerous reasons, so that being the case forget any pretence of the primary mode of transport for people being anything other than the private car.

Bus services would have to increase to every 10 minutes from about 0600 to 2300 for me to be remotely inclined to use them. And they would have sort out the city centre. They have put in extra traffic lights and rephased others which have all made bus journeys a more tedious experience. All very well trying to make city centre driving less appealing but if they shaft the buses and cyclists as well then it's pointless.

 

[crablab]

Lots more petrol stock available, hence why it has has typically only gone up 3-5p per litre

Not round here! Petrol has risen similarly in line with diesel.

But these days, only 1 in 22 new cars is diesel powered, so more a problem for those with old diesel cars than majority of motorists

New diesel sales have almost dropped to zero now, but plenty of existing cars on the road.

Diesel forecourt prices around me have risen ~15-20p from 138.9 to between 151.9 and 159.9 in the last week.

Risen again to lowest 153.9 (supermarket) to highest 164.9. The motorway is 184.9!

Feels like profiteering, but who knows. Ultimately they can charge what people are willing to pay and whilst I'm not buying fuel at these prices, apparently plenty of others are.

 

[birchesgreen]

Anecdotally of course, but it seemed like more people in Birmingham were sticking to the speed limit this morning. Usually i'm overtaken by dozens of cars but today only a couple.

 

[Cletus]

Local garage - 4 price rises in a week totalling 11p a litre.

I'm sure prices will come down as the oil price is currently down Hopefully by Friday when I'll probably need to fill up again

 

[Sun Chariot]

Biggest scalpers I've found so far, Rownhams Services on the M27: 170.9 for petrol. That's 35p per litre above the local average off the motorway.

A3 Liphook Services used to be a sky-high price, too. I've not driven that way for some while, though.
Lowest prices on East Hants coast (usually Tesco, Asda and a forecourt in Emsworth), diesel has climbed by c.20p a litre since last Thursday.

 

[Topological]

BBC this morning suggesting prices may be coming down soon. The piece was talking about Trump's feeling that the war was getting closer to an end.

I dont know whether that was scaremongering or overdoing the optimism.

EDIT: To be clear on the source here. There is no quote. The post is based on what was said on BBC Breakfast on BBC1. I do not have a script and hence used the word "suggesting".

 

[NorthOxonian]

But the increase in the cost of diesel will impact bus companies, unless they are locked into a long term fixed price contract. That may mean that, coupled with higher NI costs, impact of employment right legislation, rates increases and other cost increases, this could send some smaller companies to the wall, or a reduction in services just when they are needed.

I believe it would be a somewhat gradual process - most firms tend to "hedge" their fuel and buy it in advance. So a price increase now might only impact costs next year or even the year after, making it a smoother impact. Though I agree smaller companies may be less likely to do this so could be more vulnerable to any shocks.

 

[MotCO]

. Though I agree smaller companies may be less likely to do this so could be more vulnerable to any shocks.

Indeed, I would not be surprised if some of the smaller operators get their fuel from high street filling stations.

 

[mpthomson]

I believe it would be a somewhat gradual process - most firms tend to "hedge" their fuel and buy it in advance. So a price increase now might only impact costs next year or even the year after, making it a smoother impact. Though I agree smaller companies may be less likely to do this so could be more vulnerable to any shocks.

He's removed a lot of crude related sanctions and discussed this with Putin yesterday, the price of Brent crude dropped about $20 per barrel yesterday, although it's still around $95.

 

[stevieinselby]

There does seem to be some profiteering going on. Some fuel stations on major routes have increased by 10-15p a litre this week. Yet I filled up at Sainsbury's yesterday for 129.9 (unleaded), unchanged all week.

Doesn't help that some local rags (yes Newsquest, I'm looking at you) are reporting "panic buying" which by all accounts hasn't been happening until said reports are published.

A lot of garages will base the sale price on what they bought the fuel for, rather than a market rate. So if they are still using stock they bought at the old price then they will keep their prices down – but when they get the next delivery at a new, higher price then the price to customers goes up accordingly.

When we have fuel shortages, there is often talk about limiting how much people can buy, but I would rather go the other way and set a minimum sale (into the vehicle only, no jerry cans allowed, obviously an exemption would have to be made for 2-wheelers). If I'm putting 45 litres into my car, that's because the red light was on and I need to fill up. If you're putting 10 litres in because it's still 3/4 full and that's all it can take, you're panic buying and that's what's causing/exacerbating the shortage.

 

[JamesT]

A lot of garages will base the sale price on what they bought the fuel for, rather than a market rate. So if they are still using stock they bought at the old price then they will keep their prices down – but when they get the next delivery at a new, higher price then the price to customers goes up accordingly.

When we have fuel shortages, there is often talk about limiting how much people can buy, but I would rather go the other way and set a minimum sale (into the vehicle only, no jerry cans allowed, obviously an exemption would have to be made for 2-wheelers). If I'm putting 45 litres into my car, that's because the red light was on and I need to fill up. If you're putting 10 litres in because it's still 3/4 full and that's all it can take, you're panic buying and that's what's causing/exacerbating the shortage.

Or you're about to do a long trip and want to maximise the distance you can do on cheap local petrol, rather than potentially needing to stop somewhere more expensive en route...

 

[The exile]

Or you're about to do a long trip and want to maximise the distance you can do on cheap local petrol, rather than potentially needing to stop somewhere more expensive en route...

Or indeed you prefer to keep a basically full tank and pop in for £10 - £20 quid’s worth whenever convenient (or indeed because that’s all you can afford).
The shortages and queues occur when all the people who habitually drive around in the bottom quarter of the gauge are suddenly reminded that that’s perhaps not such a good idea after all…

 

[35B]

I'm with @stevieinselby - if you want to break the pattern of panic buying, the way to go is to impose minimum purchase requirements. I can think of plenty of possible reasons for legitimately wanting a smaller quantity (including filling a jerrycan for a lawnmower), but if panic buying sets in, the important thing is to break the behaviour to ensure overall supply.

 

[Shrop]

To my knowledge there has not been panic buying in the past 50 years due to forecast price rises.

My point is, that the media really don't help. Yesterday I saw several news reports interviewing drivers, who were companining with comments like "the poor motorist is having to suffer yet again".
Just what is really suffering about a few pence more per litre? I'd imagine that those paying many £100s right now to re-book alternative flights, or for unwanted extra nights in hotels would love to "only" have to pay a couple of pounds more for a full tank of fuel.
And yet here is something from today's Daily Mail which is another example of scaremongering about fuel costs, which could well lead to many members of the public rushing to buy fuel ...

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[Russel]

I can see public transport and walking/cycling use going up as well where motorists try to reduce petrol use. However at the same time, if cost of fuel is eating into other expenses, some public transport demand will drop as spenders reprioritise, especially regarding leisure travel.

Regarding your first sentence, I disagree, people will moan about petrol prices, but it would take a huge rise to actually get them out of their cars, I'd be surprised if a meaningful number of people even reduced their car usage.

It's not just about the cost either, for example, my place of work is 10 miles away, by car it's a 15 minute journey each way, by public transport, it would be two buses and 60 minutes each way on a good day, petrol would have to increase dramatically before public transport became an attractive option

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Unfortunately I'd just filled up before the Iran situation arose, and then suffered a spell of ill health that meant I still had a full tank when people were rushing out to beat the price rises!

Though for some reason fuel in West Yorkshire always seems to be a few pence below the national average, so I'm not going to start panicking. My car only has a 45 litre fuel tank anyway so there isn't much to be gained by filling up when I don't need to.

 

[Russel]

Unfortunately I'd just filled up before the Iran situation arose, and then suffered a spell of ill health that meant I still had a full tank when people were rushing out to beat the price rises!

Though for some reason fuel in West Yorkshire always seems to be a few pence below the national average, so I'm not going to start panicking. My car only has a 45 litre fuel tank anyway so there isn't much to be gained by filling up when I don't need to.

The variation in prices is quite surprising really, the Co-Op superstore near my work, despite being the most expensive for food, is the cheapest for petrol for miles around, but I'm in a similar position, 45L tank and it lasts me 2 to 3 week so I'm not going to start panic buying to save a couple of quid!

 

[Bald Rick]

My point is, that the media really don't help. Yesterday I saw several news reports interviewing drivers, who were companining with comments like "the poor motorist is having to suffer yet again".

And yet here is something from today's Daily Mail which is another example of scaremongering about fuel costs, which could well lead to many members of the public rushing to buy fuel ...

Yes, I understand what you’re saying. My point is, that as on previous occasions when prices have risen suddenly due to ‘local difficulties’ in the middle east or Ukraine, there hasn’t been any panic buying, regardless of what the media have published. Or, put simply, what the media say about fuel prices has little to no impact on fuel availability.

 

[Kite159]

BBC this morning suggesting prices may be coming down soon. The piece was talking about Trump's feeling that the war was getting closer to an end.

I dont know whether that was scaremongering or overdoing the optimism.

Cue the usual "But we purchased our current fuel at the higher rate and will need to wait for it to be gone before we can lower prices" excuse.

 

[Shrop]

BBC this morning suggesting prices may be coming down soon. The piece was talking about Trump's feeling that the war was getting closer to an end.

I dont know whether that was scaremongering or overdoing the optimism.

So Trump is to be believed? The BBC is naive for believing Trump? It would be interesting to know what you think ...