Freight growth to 2040

[Snow1964]

Just published by DfT / Government

I wish to inform the House of an additional target that the government is setting for the growth of rail freight, as part of continued support for the freight sector to realise its economic and environmental benefits.
We have previously affirmed our support for the existing target of:

• at least a 75% increase in freight moved by rail in net tonne kilometres by 2050

To help realise this ambition, I am now setting an additional target as a milestone towards achieving the desired growth, namely of:

• at least a 40% increase in freight moved by rail in net tonne kilometres by 2040

To further support our vision for the sector, I have expectations that there is potential for rail freight to increase volumes of different types of commodities by 2040. Namely:

• an increase of 65% in high value goods in net tonne kilometres
• an increase of 45% in construction goods in net tonne kilometres
• an increase of 7% in critical goods in net tonne kilometres

This new target reflects not only our ambition for the sector, but our commitment to improving supply chain resilience, economic growth and decarbonising our logistics sector.
It is estimated that delivering the 2040 growth target will increase the value of goods moved by rail freight from £33.7 billion to £49.5 billion.
It is also estimated that meeting the target would save a million tonnes of CO2 per year compared to if the freight went by road.
The Railways Bill, which is currently before Parliament, provides for the Transport Secretary to set a rail freight growth target for Great British Railways (GBR). This will ensure that the duty to grow rail freight will be embedded in the new body’s decision-making.
In this way, the government’s target setting for the growth of rail freight will have statutory status and continue to play a key role in ensuring that rail freight continues to prosper as an integral part of the railway.
Published 8 September 2026

Rail freight growth 2040 target

Announces new 2040 targets for rail freight growth.

www.gov.uk

Anyone want to comment on how it might be achieved
New electric freight locos perhaps

 

[EuxtonNeutral]

Just published by DfT / Government

Rail freight growth 2040 target

Announces new 2040 targets for rail freight growth.

www.gov.uk

Anyone want to comment on how it might be achieved
New electric freight locos perhaps

Basically wiring, wiring and more wiring. Ideally vast stretches of the network but failing that, at least some short strategic portions such as spurs to Felixstowe/London gateway etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 10:53 ==

Basically wiring, wiring and more wiring. Ideally vast stretches of the network but failing that, at least some short strategic portions such as spurs to Felixstowe/London gateway etc.

Oh and HS2 (full version) freeing up huge capacity on WCML, MML and ECML. Seeing as there is no concrete commitment to either of these things I don’t see what substance there is to the govt’s freight fancies.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 10:54 ==

Basically wiring, wiring and more wiring. Ideally vast stretches of the network but failing that, at least some short strategic portions such as spurs to Felixstowe/London gateway etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 10:53 ==


Oh and HS2 (full version) freeing up huge capacity on WCML, MML and ECML. Seeing as there is no concrete commitment to either of these things I don’t see what substance there is to the govt’s freight fancies.

But I suppose setting the target is a start.

 

[The Planner]

Wiring won't do much in my opinion. I am assuming the expectation is more longer heavier trains and where the money comes from to accomodate that I do not know, either that or you are taking passenger trains out.

 

[zwk500]

Anyone want to comment on how it might be achieved

Crossed fingers, one suspects.

New electric freight locos perhaps

Paid for by whom? FOCs will want Bi-Modes or Battery locos at a minimum as it'll never be viable to wire 100% of freight routes, nor practical to wire up terminals in full.

In order to substantially increase freight, 2 key things need to happen:
1. There needs to be demand to move goods.
2. There needs to be capacity for the trains.

Point 1 is largely without the control of the railway as it depends on the wider economic conditions. To be fair a lot of the factors are also outside the control of the national government.
Point 2 is a bit more in control of the government. There are 3 main options:
(a) incentivise/require routing via underutilised points of the network. However these lines are usually not gauge cleared for containers or don't have particularly high RAs for aggregates traffic, so some infrastructure upgrades would likely be needed anyway. And, of course, these routes have to be conneceted to the origin and destination of the freight.
(b) Invest in the existing freight corridors to provide additional track capacity (electrification, signalling, speed upgrades can all help with this). this is obviously very expensive and disruptive for the upgrade period as these lines are also heavily used by passenger trains.
(c) Removal of passenger trains to release capacity. Of course, if there are also targets to increase passenger numbers, this may be contradictory.

A bit of all 3 is probably needed to release the capacity for 40% uplift. Although there's plenty of Class 4 trains that don't max out at 775m, so perhaps options a and b might focus on getting those up first. However Point 1 still stands.

 

[Snow1964]

Wiring won't do much in my opinion. I am assuming the expectation is more longer heavier trains and where the money comes from to accomodate that I do not know, either that or you are taking passenger trains out.

There are a few places where heavy trains are currently diesel hauled and fairly sluggish thus eating capacity, eg Mendips to Acton. But unless Newbury - Frome / Bruton area is wired not going to happen.

If the current (getting older) diesel locos could last until 2040 is different question, presumably at some stage new locomotives will be needed (but I will have to let others with knowledge of freight locos say which years replacements are likely)

 

[Dr Hoo]

To give the targets any credibility there have to be concrete signals of commitment that prospective customers and logistics enterprises can see.

A good start might to expedite the massive Strategic Rail Rail Freight Interchange (SRFI) at Parkside, as long mooted. This should clearly provide for the accommodation of all current traffic at the two Trafford Park terminals plus a 75% increase.
A suitably sized warehouse and distribution complex needs to be part of the project.
All electrified routes serving the area, including the WCML should have power supplies enhanced to ensure all-electric traction.

This would herald new job opportunities in nearby Makerfield and also facilitate the comprehensive redevelopment of Trafford Park/ Old Trafford - in itself an economic boost and large construction project in its own right.

More detailed development might identify the scope to share the development with Port Salford to achieve the overall aims.

Developments in other parts of GB will also be needed, including electrification into the East Midlands and more of South Yorkshire.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Just published by DfT / Government

Rail freight growth 2040 target

Announces new 2040 targets for rail freight growth.

www.gov.uk

Anyone want to comment on how it might be achieved
New electric freight locos perhaps

Also interesting is that those targets have been broken out a bit

To further support our vision for the sector, I have expectations that there is potential for rail freight to increase volumes of different types of commodities by 2040. Namely:

• an increase of 65% in high value goods in net tonne kilometres
• an increase of 45% in construction goods in net tonne kilometres
• an increase of 7% in critical goods in net tonne kilometres

2040 is a long time, this commitment will be forgotten after the next election, so it might get a few modest things kicked off in the next couple of years, but it is not a coherent long-term strategy with funding behind it. Even if a strategy is unveiled in a blitz of publicity, there will be another strategy and plan along a couple of years later. That stuff is so much easier than actually funding anything.

I think better use of existing electrification to accelerate freight with, i.e. Cl99 is more important than new wiring.

HS2 and EWR should both be open, so there will presumably be new opportunities based on WCML capacity release and improved Southampton - Midlands plus Felixstowe - Wales/West

Aside from these, I doubt there is anything on the list that wasn't in an Enhancement Delivery Plan before 2020. Ely springs to mind but I'm sure there were plenty of other schemes.

 

[Magdalia]

In order to substantially increase freight, 2 key things need to happen:
1. There needs to be demand to move goods.
2. There needs to be capacity for the trains.

Point 1 is largely without the control of the railway as it depends on the wider economic conditions. To be fair a lot of the factors are also outside the control of the national government.

I agree that these are the difficult questions that need to be addressed, if the target is to be achieved.

In particular, it requires clear thinking on what goods are going to fill all of these extra freight trains. Is marginal improvement on what the railway is already good at going to be enough, or does there have to be a radical transfomation of logistics in a sector of the economy that currently uses other modes? If the latter, where might that be?

But some new demand is very predictable. One example I think about is all of the aggregates needed to build new reservoirs. The Fens reservoir needs to bring in aggregates to the March/Manea area, and the proposed Lincolnshire reservoir is almost adjacent to the Joint Line at Helpringham, just south of Sleaford. The target isn't going to be achieved if the railway doesn't have the capacity to meet demand like this. I'm sure there are other examples of new infrastructure that will need railway capacity, such all of the bits and pieces needed to install a new pylon line, and what about building data centres?

If the railway can't win new traffic, or doesn't have the line capacity to handle it, then electrification and locomotives are irrelevant.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Mendips to Acton stone trains are an obvious target. Wiring it and getting improvements in passenger trains as an extra benefit.

 

[6Gman]

Mendips to Acton stone trains are an obvious target. Wiring it and getting improvements in passenger trains as an extra benefit.

But speeding up some existing flows isn't "growth".

 

[InTheEastMids]

But speeding up some existing flows isn't "growth".

Also be good to know whether the growth is supposed to be acquisitive i.e. shifting today's road freight to rail or simply an outcome of general growth and "a rising tide lifting all boats".

 

[Swedenorer]

In particular, it requires clear thinking on what goods are going to fill all of these extra freight trains. Is marginal improvement on what the railway is already good at going to be enough, or does there have to be a radical transfomation of logistics in a sector of the economy that currently uses other modes? If the latter, where might that be?
If the railway can't win new traffic, or doesn't have the line capacity to handle it, then electrification and locomotives are irrelevant.

I may be pretty cynical about these things given that any visit to Fratton reminds one of the failed Portsmouth Intermodal Freight TerminaI so I doubt whether such clear thinking has taken place before this announcement. I suspect it will be seen in a very short time as balderdash. The stats for road haulage since 2000 show a pretty constant rolling average with the highest pre covid year being 2007 173Bn T/Km. It was 168 Bn in 2024. Rail's share is down by about 2.5 Bn T/Km per annum since 2014. If the latest stats are right then by 2040 the railway will be expected to find 40% of 17 Bn T/Km about 6.8 Bn - a third of this making up lost traffic - in what has been for the past 20 years a pretty static market. How much of this is suitable for rail who knows? I bet they don't.

 

[flashgordon]

very interesting and what looks like a real fact now. There is at the moment a new freight depot being built at Barking Creak ( this should be finished in 2028 ) there are a number of reasons for this 1 the cost of HGV ownership is increasing 2. Flexstowe is losing potential new business to the new Thames gateway . 3 closer to London and the HS2 project 4 the increase of new towns being built on the Thames Estuary . It is though by 2035 there will be up to 250,00 new homes in these new towns . This is my guess but i know the road haulage companies are not happy with the current government with increasing costs of running very large HGV but also the limit of time the drivers are allowed to drive is likely to be limited now

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Yesterday at 19:57 ==

very interesting and what looks like a real fact now. There is at the moment a new freight depot being built at Barking Creak ( this should be finished in 2028 ) there are a number of reasons for this 1 the cost of HGV ownership is increasing 2. Flexstowe is losing potential new business to the new Thames gateway . 3 closer to London and the HS2 project 4 the increase of new towns being built on the Thames Estuary . It is though by 2035 there will be up to 250,00 new homes in these new towns . This is my guess but i know the road haulage companies are not happy with the current government with increasing costs of running very large HGV but also the limit of time the drivers are allowed to drive is likely to be limited now

It is thought by some that the use of canals will increase over time to carry goods . maybe the days of the huge HGV are now over . The use of the cheaper electric vans will help too . And more warehouses to be built with railway tracks

 

[S101]

Just published by DfT / Government

Rail freight growth 2040 target

Announces new 2040 targets for rail freight growth.

www.gov.uk

Anyone want to comment on how it might be achieved
New electric freight locos perhaps

This is surely a micky take. ABP are, as we speak running Immingham into the ground. Freight is dieing from one of the main UK ports. Lindsey Oil refinery has shut (not ABP). There are no containers from Immingham. All the scrap is transported by road.... Yet they want freight to grow.... They'd better get on to the port authorities and their associates.