France announces National Lockdown

[Smidster]

Dismiss the protests as you will, but they are growing in Italy & Spain & certainly in the former are starting to become organised by the local football Ultras. And for those who don't know about Ultras, they more than just football hooligans, these are people who are often central to football supporter clubs & often very well respected by supporters so will get more and more backing. There is only so much people can take, and many countries are already over that line.

Problem is that, like with many other things, people in these threads have been predicting the forthcoming riots for months now and oddly enough they are yet to happen. The "People can't take it any more" is also oft repeated and yet all the evidence is that while people hate where we are they want the Government to act and do more and not less.

As for the French authorities I would always put my money on the gendarme over a bunch of football hooligans.

To be absolutely clear I am opposed to more restrictions and am really not in a good way with it all but it is what it is.

 

[philosopher]

Problem is that, like with many other things, people in these threads have been predicting the forthcoming riots for months now and oddly enough they are yet to happen. The "People can't take it any more" is also oft repeated and yet all the evidence is that while people hate where we are they want the Government to act and do more and not less.

As for the French authorities I would always put my money on the gendarme over a bunch of football hooligans.

To be absolutely clear I am opposed to more restrictions and am really not in a good way with it all but it is what it is.

I think the reason that protests have not occurred so far is because it generally far easier to just ignore the rules instead of protesting against them. Plus the protests (at least in the UK) are generally led by conspiracy theorists which means they have less credibility.

 

[Bantamzen]

Problem is that, like with many other things, people in these threads have been predicting the forthcoming riots for months now and oddly enough they are yet to happen. The "People can't take it any more" is also oft repeated and yet all the evidence is that while people hate where we are they want the Government to act and do more and not less.

As for the French authorities I would always put my money on the gendarme over a bunch of football hooligans.

To be absolutely clear I am opposed to more restrictions and am really not in a good way with it all but it is what it is.

Its not about who wins in a riot, its the fact that enough people are prepared to make those kind of statements in the first place.

 

[scarby]

French Prime Minister Jean Castex in July:

"My aim is to prepare France for a possible second wave while preserving our daily life, our economic and social life.

"But we're not going to impose a lockdown like the one we did last March, because we've learned... that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous."

Source: https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge

France Prime Minster Jean Castex in September:

“The virus is with us for several more months and we must manage to live with it without letting ourselves get drawn once again into a narrative of nationwide lockdown,” Castex said in a televised address.

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...de-lockdown-over-covid-19-surge-idUKKBN2622FM

 

[adc82140]

They are insisting that all children over the age of 6 wear masks in school. There is peer reviewed evidence that primary aged children do not spread Covid in any significant way. I thought our government was bad. This is so obviously an incompetent administration floundering around for new measures. I have a lot of connections with France. I've learnt a lot of new insults in their fine language from my Facebook feed today.

 

[DB]

Problem is that, like with many other things, people in these threads have been predicting the forthcoming riots for months now and oddly enough they are yet to happen. The "People can't take it any more" is also oft repeated and yet all the evidence is that while people hate where we are they want the Government to act and do more and not less.

I'm not sure what's 'odd' about it, given that many jobs were protected and many people quite liked being off work on full or close to full pay over the summer.

Different situation now - it's winter, the end of the furlough scheme is likely to mean significant job losses (especially given the increasing restrictions). The mood is definitely turning.

 

[packermac]

French Prime Minister Jean Castex in July:



Source: https://www.france24.com/en/20200708-france-rules-out-total-lockdown-in-case-of-covid-19-surge

France Prime Minster Jean Castex in September:



Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...de-lockdown-over-covid-19-surge-idUKKBN2622FM

But what you your point? The situation changes, the actions change. Do you not work for a company where the strategy in the previous year was different to this one (2020 excepted of course)? because I certainly did for all my working life.

 

[Richard Scott]

But what you your point? The situation changes, the actions change. Do you not work for a company where the strategy in the previous year was different to this one (2020 excepted of course)? because I certainly did for all my working life.

The difference is that lockdown is not a new strategy and they know the consequences of another so why go back to it?

 

[DB]

The difference is that lockdown is not a new strategy and they know the consequences of another so why go back to it?

Quite - and it does credibility no good at all to rule something out and then do it anyway a short time later, unless something unexpected has changed. In this case, nothing has changed - the outcome of lockdowns had already been demonstrated, and the increase in numbers as we go into winter should have been no surprise to anybody.

 

[philosopher]

But what you your point? The situation changes, the actions change. Do you not work for a company where the strategy in the previous year was different to this one (2020 excepted of course)? because I certainly did for all my working life.

To me this is nothing but a very big U turn from the French government if they were previously ruled out a lockdown in July. The virus, as far as we know has not become any more infectious or virulant since July, so why have the French suddenly changed their strategy for dealing with a second wave.

 

[Carlisle]

Quite - and it does credibility no good at all to rule something out and then do it anyway a short time later,

True , but currently lockdowns appear the only course of action most politicians when under extreme pressure believe convinces the public they’re actually doing all they can, despite only appearing truly effective in countries that did so very early on with extremely few cases anyway & maintained virtually sealed borders ever since.

 

[Bantamzen]

To me this is nothing but a very big U turn from the French government if they were previously ruled out a lockdown in July. The virus, as far as we know has not become any more infectious or virulant since July, so why have the French suddenly changed their strategy for dealing with a second wave.

Its worse than that, it is nothing short of an admission that his government, and their advisers have no idea how to handle the situation so are just throwing the same solutions at the wall in the vain hope they will stick.

 

[MikeWM]

Its worse than that, it is nothing short of an admission that his government, and their advisers have no idea how to handle the situation so are just throwing the same solutions at the wall in the vain hope they will stick.

Also the first lockdowns were in March/April, when respiratory viruses are naturally on the wane anyway.

These new ones will be when they would be naturally increasing. It will be particularly interesting if they turn out to be no more effective at reducing cases/deaths than the other measures western countries have tried over the last few months.

 

[big_rig]

Also the first lockdowns were in March/April, when respiratory viruses are naturally on the wane anyway.

These new ones will be when they would be naturally increasing. It will be particularly interesting if they turn out to be no more effective at reducing cases/deaths than the other measures western countries have tried over the last few months.

That's a good point, isn't it - if going back into barring people inside (aka 'lockdown') doesn't work as well as people hope, and they've basically admitted that the other measures didn't work either (including the track and trace even in Germany they seem to be giving up on), then how do you ever get out of it again?

Thinking a bit more long-term I can imagine a scenario where people in various bits of Government who think about things like global power balances and are interested in maintaining the general clout of Western nations economically and politically have a quiet word of sorts with various leaders and remind them whether permanent structural damage to society and economies is worth the lives saved through these lockdowns (especially if vaccine progress is disappointing).

Anyway, I hope Boris holds out, or that we at least get a few more weeks of relative freedom to enjoy.

 

[Richard Scott]

Anyway, I hope Boris holds out, or that we at least get a few more weeks of relative freedom to enjoy.

Can see what happens to the numbers as well, at some point they have to peak and then fall? If they keep throwing the towel in and resorting to lockdown we, and all the other countries, will be dealing with this for along time.

 

[MikeWM]

That's a good point, isn't it - if going back into barring people inside (aka 'lockdown') doesn't work as well as people hope, and they've basically admitted that the other measures didn't work either (including the track and trace even in Germany they seem to be giving up on), then how do you ever get out of it again?

They'll probably just do the 'mask argument' and say that things would be even worse otherwise. At some point or other it will end anyway and then they can claim how wonderful an idea the lockdown was (again).

Speaking of which, here's a graph of when masks were mandated in various places in France. Clearly they work really well and the solution must be even more mask wearing

 

[Bikeman78]

That's a good point, isn't it - if going back into barring people inside (aka 'lockdown') doesn't work as well as people hope, and they've basically admitted that the other measures didn't work either (including the track and trace even in Germany they seem to be giving up on), then how do you ever get out of it again?

As far as I'm aware, there are no vaccines for the 1918, 1958 or 1968 viruses. Nature took its course and they burnt themselves out. Why would this virus be any different?

 

[Huntergreed]

As far as I'm aware, there are no vaccines for the 1918, 1958 or 1968 viruses. Nature took its course and they burnt themselves out. Why would this virus be any different?

Because apparently we now have the ability to “control” “defeat” and “eliminate” a virus, without a vaccine and through destroying the very structure of our society in order to do so.

 

[6862]

Because apparently we now have the ability to “control” “defeat” and “eliminate” a virus, without a vaccine and through destroying the very structure of our society in order to do so.

It's a clear sign of what a progressive and enlightened world we live in (sarcasm!).

 

[Bantamzen]

They'll probably just do the 'mask argument' and say that things would be even worse otherwise. At some point or other it will end anyway and then they can claim how wonderful an idea the lockdown was (again).

Speaking of which, here's a graph of when masks were mandated in various places in France. Clearly they work really well and the solution must be even more mask wearing

View attachment 85217

We have to be careful and not lean too heavily on data like this as proof that masks don't work as we are told. However the more I see of this, the more I'm getting convinced that masks simply don't work at best.

 

[MikeWM]

We have to be careful and not lean too heavily on data like this as proof that masks don't work as we are told. However the more I see of this, the more I'm getting convinced that masks simply don't work at best.

Indeed - my opinion all along is that the likely effect (either way) is tiny.

I am increasingly interested in the droplet -> aerosol idea that I'm increasingly seeing suggested as a plausible mechanism as to why they could make things worse, but for now at least my position remains 'effectively pointless'.

 

[big_rig]

As far as I'm aware, there are no vaccines for the 1918, 1958 or 1968 viruses. Nature took its course and they burnt themselves out. Why would this virus be any different?

Yes, quite - I meant more rhetorically - 'we getting out of it' being the politicians who have no other option than lockdown, and the public who have had it drilled into them that everything is a lot worse than it really is.

In any case I still think the answer is the release of any vaccine, no matter what level of protection it gives basically anyone, will be the safety valve to wind down a lot of this. Start handing it out and hope people forget about it enough to go back to a 'mild' form of restrictions which you then get rid of when the next vaccine of whatever effectiveness comes out to bolster the first one, and quietly forget about it. Other alternative scenarios don't really bear thinking about..

 

[scarby]

But what you your point? The situation changes, the actions change. Do you not work for a company where the strategy in the previous year was different to this one (2020 excepted of course)? because I certainly did for all my working life.

Not when you've said: "because we've learned... that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous."

Did your company do something where they said "That was a disaster!"... and then decided to do it again some months later?

The opposition parties in France have been highly critical of the government this week. Christian Jacob, head of the Republican Party in France, said at the meeting with Castex he felt he must be "hallucinating" and that the measure is "a cross between improvisation and panic," Oliver Faure of the Socialist Party said it was "surrealist" and that "instead of bringing everyone together it would do exactly the opposite," while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally Party said the government had "reacted to this sanitary crisis in a totally erratic manner, with no anticipation and no strategy."

 

[brad465]

The opposition parties in France have been highly critical of the government this week. Christian Jacob, head of the Republican Party in France, said at the meeting with Castex he felt he must be "hallucinating" and that the measure is "a cross between improvisation and panic," Oliver Faure of the Socialist Party said it was "surrealist" and that "instead of bringing everyone together it would do exactly the opposite," while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally Party said the government had "reacted to this sanitary crisis in a totally erratic manner, with no anticipation and no strategy."

The fact that most of those in opposition to the current strategy in Politics and certain areas of journalism are of a right wing and/or populist nature, in the likes of France, here (ERG, Farage, right wing papers, etc.) and of course Trump in the US, does make we wonder should they be proven right, is this likely to be concerning for the nature of how the world goes forward from a political perspective, given they can use all this to their advantage (many on here have said they have agreed with them on this when in almost every other area they don't)?

 

[Bikeman78]

The fact that most of those in opposition to the current strategy in Politics and certain areas of journalism are of a right wing and/or populist nature, in the likes of France, here (ERG, Farage, right wing papers, etc.) and of course Trump in the US, does make we wonder should they be proven right, is this likely to be concerning for the nature of how the world goes forward from a political perspective, given they can use all this to their advantage (many on here have said they have agreed with them on this when in almost every other area they don't)?

I agree. It's worrying when Nigel Farage is the voice of reason.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

We have to be careful and not lean too heavily on data like this as proof that masks don't work as we are told. However the more I see of this, the more I'm getting convinced that masks simply don't work at best.

Masks are very effective... at getting people to relax, have a false sense of security, stand close in queues* and when getting off trains (particularly at termini). If you wanted to design a product that would spread the virus, you’d struggle to come up with a better solution.

*as I posted, on here, from my personal experiences on the first weekend after face coverings in shops were made mandatory

 

[packermac]

Not when you've said: "because we've learned... that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous."

Did your company do something where they said "That was a disaster!"... and then decided to do it again some months later?

I believe history will prove that BA had quite a good record of doing exactly that.

 

[philjo]

I see that Belgium is also having another lockdown from Monday until Mid-December.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The question I want to know is are the French locking down their Channel ports? My guess is probably not.

It irrates me that we are in a National crisis and the UK is still getting thousands upon thousands of immigrants coming over the water.

This issue should have been dealt with years ago - but the French have never done the UK any favours as a neighbouring country.

My guess is that the French will hurd everyone they don't want in the general direction of Kent just to get rid of them off French soil.

CJ

 

[Domh245]

The question I want to know is are the French locking down their Channel ports? My guess is probably not.

It irrates me that we are in a National crisis and the UK is still getting thousands upon thousands of immigrants coming over the water.

This issue should have been dealt with years ago - but the French have never done the UK any favours as a neighbouring country.

My guess is that the French will hurd everyone they don't want in the general direction of Kent just to get rid of them off French soil.

CJ

The tens per day crossing the channel don't tend to do it through legal means. Shutting down the channel ports will make not make any difference to them...