Flixbus Discussion

[cambsy]

I think Flixbus is finding that a lot of the big coach firms like Parks of Hamilton and bus operators like first bus, are tied into doing national Express work, so the only ones left are smaller firms, who dont have capacity to find extra coaches etc if one breaks down, and as flixbus is new to the UK coach service market, it hasn’t had time draw up contracts like national Express do, so the coach firms are doing things they way they like and are used to, as the contracts are not as iron clad as national express contracts, and dont forget national Express has been doing this for decades, so is well versed in it.

I think Fkixbus is finding that the UK market is pretty saturated with National Express and Megabus, and if they are going to succeed and build their network, they are going to need to develop better contracts so they entice the bigger coach firms to contract for them, and they will need to take big hit, by doing cheap fares, a lot of marketing and running decent number of services on their routes, even if coaches at the start are running with low numbers, and if they keep cutting back services and charging higher fares then they will fail to get foothold in the UK, it now depends on how big a pocket Flixbus has, and how much resolve they have to break into the UK market.

 

[cnjb8]

I think Flixbus is finding that a lot of the big coach firms like Parks of Hamilton and bus operators like first bus, are tied into doing national Express work, so the only ones left are smaller firms, who dont have capacity to find extra coaches etc if one breaks down, and as flixbus is new to the UK coach service market, it hasn’t had time draw up contracts like national Express do, so the coach firms are doing things they way they like and are used to, as the contracts are not as iron clad as national express contracts, and dont forget national Express has been doing this for decades, so is well versed in it.

I think Fkixbus is finding that the UK market is pretty saturated with National Express and Megabus, and if they are going to succeed and build their network, they are going to need to develop better contracts so they entice the bigger coach firms to contract for them, and they will need to take big hit, by doing cheap fares, a lot of marketing and running decent number of services on their routes, even if coaches at the start are running with low numbers, and if they keep cutting back services and charging higher fares then they will fail to get foothold in the UK, it now depends on how big a pocket Flixbus has, and how much resolve they have to break into the UK market.

National Express are bringing more and more work in house, whereas Flixbus obviously are going for the contracting their services out method which is interesting, especially as NX are well established as you’ve said.

Do Flixbus run operations in house in Europe?

 

[Man of Kent]

I think Flixbus is finding that a lot of the big coach firms like Parks of Hamilton and bus operators like first bus, are tied into doing national Express work, so the only ones left are smaller firms

Flixbus's stated policy is to work with small and medium sized operators. The Flixbus business model requires the contractor to take some of the revenue risk, even though that contractor has no influence on the fares at all. None of the bigger groups will fall for that trick.

I think Fkixbus is finding that the UK market is pretty saturated with National Express and Megabus

Agreed. Most of the markets they have entered have nothing like the level of service available in the UK. It's difficult to get precise figures, but pre-Covid, NatEx ran around 500 coaches and Megabus 100-120.

I am told that Flixbus currently has 3% market share

Which if we do it on number of coaches would thus be around 18, but I suspect the market share by passenger is lower.

While neither NatEx nor Megabus is exactly exemplary in explaining where their coaches go, Flixbus's attempts are woeful, made worse by the near constant fiddling with routes and destinations.

it now depends on how big a pocket Flixbus has, and how much resolve they have to break into the UK market.

A press release said that most of a recent $650m funding round was intended to expand service in the UK. There really are some very stupid people in the corporate finance sector.

Do Flixbus run operations in house in Europe?

No, everything is operated by third parties. As here, some of them work out the terms Flixbus offers are next to impossible to operate at a profit, and there is a fair amount of turnover of contractors. Even the Flixtrain operation has changed hands.

 

[cnjb8]

Flixbus's stated policy is to work with small and medium sized operators. The Flixbus business model requires the contractor to take some of the revenue risk, even though that contractor has no influence on the fares at all. None of the bigger groups will fall for that trick.

Agreed. Most of the markets they have entered have nothing like the level of service available in the UK. It's difficult to get precise figures, but pre-Covid, NatEx ran around 500 coaches and Megabus 100-120.

Which if we do it on number of coaches would thus be around 18, but I suspect the market share by passenger is lower.

While neither NatEx nor Megabus is exactly exemplary in explaining where their coaches go, Flixbus's attempts are woeful, made worse by the near constant fiddling with routes and destinations.

A press release said that most of a recent $650m funding round was intended to expand service in the UK. There really are some very stupid people in the corporate finance sector.

No, everything is operated by third parties. As here, some of them work out the terms Flixbus offers are next to impossible to operate at a profit, and there is a fair amount of turnover of contractors. Even the Flixtrain operation has changed hands.

Ah thank you

 

[cambsy]

Though not strictly on topic, if one wants to see stupid people in the corporate finance sector, then the billions given to Uber to disrupt the taxi market, and they still loosing money, and i doubt they will ever turn a profit, with money they have spent, is pretty stupid in my opinion, though 650 million is not to be sneezed at.

 

[MotCO]

National Express are bringing more and more work in house, whereas Flixbus obviously are going for the contracting their services out method which is interesting, especially as NX are well established as you’ve said.

Which may mean there are some operators out there looking for long distance work.

 

[JonathanH]

For so long as Flixbus run ex-National Express Lavantes on pretty much the same routes they aren't really offering anything different from National Express. From that point of view, what are they really adding apart from the capital paying for some cheap seats? More to the point, what could they add? Seat reservations seems to be one thing but do people really care about that?

 

[Eyersey468]

I am told Flixbus have 408 daily journeys compared to 6800 on NX

 

[dan5324]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t the space or demand for three coach operators.
I shouldn’t say this but there are some very “nervous” people at national express right now.
Demand just hasn’t returned as quickly as we thought it would. Demand bounced back quicker last year after the first lockdown but it’s taking much, much longer this time. Weekends particularly used to be a sellout. Not anymore. How on Earth flixbus intend to make ground I do not know.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t the space or demand for three coach operators.
I shouldn’t say this but there are some very “nervous” people at national express right now.
Demand just hasn’t returned as quickly as we thought it would. Demand bounced back quicker last year after the first lockdown but it’s taking much, much longer this time. Weekends particularly used to be a sellout. Not anymore. How on Earth flixbus intend to make ground I do not know.

Out of curiosity, how are the Scottish NatEx services doing? The Megabus service has been running as full.

 

[johncrossley]

Seat reservations seems to be one thing but do people really care about that?

For me, that's the primary reason why I use Flixbus. Get rid of that, and I'll be back on the train, ideally First Class.

 

[Eyersey468]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t the space or demand for three coach operators.
I shouldn’t say this but there are some very “nervous” people at national express right now.
Demand just hasn’t returned as quickly as we thought it would. Demand bounced back quicker last year after the first lockdown but it’s taking much, much longer this time. Weekends particularly used to be a sellout. Not anymore. How on Earth flixbus intend to make ground I do not know.

I agree there isn't the demand for 3. Is this why NX and Stagecoach are talking about a merger?

 

[Scotrail314209]

For me, that's the primary reason why I use Flixbus. Get rid of that, and I'll be back on the train, ideally First Class.

I like how you can book the seat next to you to be unoccupied for a slight fee. Bit of a win over National Express and Megabus who don't offer it.

 

[Flange Squeal]

I like how you can book the seat next to you to be unoccupied for a slight fee. Bit of a win over National Express and Megabus who don't offer it.

I’m guessing that is something that would only last while their services are so quiet though, in order to make a bit of money on seats that would otherwise remain unoccupied. If coaches started filling up as per their ambition, I’d expect that to soon get withdrawn. A good idea to make a few extra quid though, as I guess new passengers may well book it, not knowing the likelihood is the seat would remain vacant anyway.

 

[markymark2000]

Flixbus's stated policy is to work with small and medium sized operators. The Flixbus business model requires the contractor to take some of the revenue risk, even though that contractor has no influence on the fares at all. None of the bigger groups will fall for that trick.

Agreed. Most of the markets they have entered have nothing like the level of service available in the UK. It's difficult to get precise figures, but pre-Covid, NatEx ran around 500 coaches and Megabus 100-120.

Which if we do it on number of coaches would thus be around 18, but I suspect the market share by passenger is lower.

While neither NatEx nor Megabus is exactly exemplary in explaining where their coaches go, Flixbus's attempts are woeful, made worse by the near constant fiddling with routes and destinations.

A press release said that most of a recent $650m funding round was intended to expand service in the UK. There really are some very stupid people in the corporate finance sector.

No, everything is operated by third parties. As here, some of them work out the terms Flixbus offers are next to impossible to operate at a profit, and there is a fair amount of turnover of contractors. Even the Flixtrain operation has changed hands.

Thank you for being able to explain the contracts. That would figure why so few operators want to take on the work. I guess Flix is probably better as a sales outlet than running routes under their brand. Arriva, Berry's and Oxford Airline for example always have set fares which seem to be just commission for Flix.

Im interested to see how things progress if it is so hard to make a profit from the work. Not worth anyone doing if there isn't fair money in it. I guess that makes is more important to have buses through the night then and get drivers back each night to save on hotels which will hinder the profits.

 

[Titfield]

I wonder if Flixbus have read the book about British Coachways?

Whilst it could be argued that times have changed, the basic principles havent.

National Express has a well established brand, route network and presumably have a very good idea of what works and what doesnt work.

 

[M803UYA]

I wonder if Flixbus have read the book about British Coachways?

Whilst it could be argued that times have changed, the basic principles havent.

National Express has a well established brand, route network and presumably have a very good idea of what works and what doesnt work.

It's quite an interesting book too. The one advantage, now, compared with the early 1980s is this thing called the internet. This removes the need for booking agents which was one issue which affected British Coachways. Given Flixbus experience I can surmise the owners probably haven't read this book!
Flixbus has been rather successful in mainland Europe, and I've no reason to see why they won't make a success of their operations here. National Express/Megabus have tried to run in mainland Europe and have walked away from the market, so their horizons are limited to here and the USA.
So I can see consolidation in the UK coach service market, but cannot see that it'll be Flixbus blinking first. They can afford to offer bargain prices to gain market share for as long as the funding dictates.
More likely that Megabus and National Express will consolidate their operations, especially given Stagecoach's willingness to sell operations onto others when the opportunity presents itself.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Does anyone know how the UKN10 service is doing in terms of demand at the minute? I’m looking to do it as I’ve heard it’s quieter than Megabus and NatEx’s service.

 

[derbybusdepot]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t the space or demand for three coach operators.
I shouldn’t say this but there are some very “nervous” people at national express right now.
Demand just hasn’t returned as quickly as we thought it would. Demand bounced back quicker last year after the first lockdown but it’s taking much, much longer this time. Weekends particularly used to be a sellout. Not anymore. How on Earth flixbus intend to make ground I do not know.

I think new routes need to be looked at. People don't always want a slow coach that goes from A to B via the world, or excessively long routes.

Take Nottingham to Birmingham for example, nearly all coaches go via Leicester, and only a few a day. If not direct, operating via Derby would be quicker, extend to Birmingham Airport and offer new connections without the need to change.

What would this be up against? The train, which is quite expensive for the distance, always busy and offers journey times that would not be much longer by coach.

 

[JonathanH]

Take Nottingham to Birmingham for example, nearly all coaches go via Leicester, and only a few a day. If not direct, operating via Derby would be quicker, extend to Birmingham Airport and offer new connections without the need to change.

Presumably that is because there are more passengers predisposed to coach travel in Leicester than Derby and Nottingham can't support its own service.

If a Nottingham to Birmingham coach avoiding Leicester were viable you would imagine that it would be something that already existed. Was there ever one? It seems to be in the sort of range where one of the bus operators in the area might have run that route.

I think new routes need to be looked at. People don't always want a slow coach that goes from A to B via the world, or excessively long routes.

They have to be viable though and that is the trade off passengers need to be aware of in the trade off between slow coaches, long routes and reasonable fares.

 

[Titfield]

They have to be viable though and that is the trade off passengers need to be aware of in the trade off between slow coaches, long routes and reasonable fares.

I rarely travel by coach because quite simply the journey times are often very much longer than the comparable journey by train.

Yes I "trade off" the fares against journey duration as Jonathan H refers to.

Many years ago when I worked for National Exp one of our core markets was the proverbial "little old lady" who was quite prepared to sit on a coach for a lengthy journey (providing it had personal need / refreshment stops) because it was very much cheaper than the train and very often didnt require a change en route.

A classic example was the then 025? service which operated from Dover right the way through to Penzance linking the many seaside towns with large retired populations: Eastbourne, Brighton, Worthing, Bognor, Bournemouth, Weymouth, Paignton, Torquay etc.,

 

[JonathanH]

A classic example was the then 025? service which operated from Dover right the way through to Penzance linking the many seaside towns with large retired populations: Eastbourne, Brighton, Worthing, Bognor, Bournemouth, Weymouth, Paignton, Torquay etc.,

Yes, 315, once Helston to Eastbourne - that sort of service (which had already been culled east of Bournemouth and west of Plymouth) has not returned to the National Express network after Covid suggesting even they don't think it is viable.

National Express don't appear to have restarted any of the 3xx routes. The core parts of them now run as 1xx routes without the tentacles into less remunerative locations and links. I doubt Flixbus are going to make any money getting into that sort of market.

 

[derbybusdepot]

Presumably that is because there are more passengers predisposed to coach travel in Leicester than Derby and Nottingham can't support its own service.

If a Nottingham to Birmingham coach avoiding Leicester were viable you would imagine that it would be something that already existed. Was there ever one? It seems to be in the sort of range where one of the bus operators in the area might have run that route.

They have to be viable though and that is the trade off passengers need to be aware of in the trade off between slow coaches, long routes and reasonable fares.

Yes there are many more passengers to be had from Leicester, seems a very good market there, and obviously why it is routed that way.

However if you're entering the market, or looking to expand/improve offering, personally I think you need to look at what can be improved, not just offering more of the same.

Many people use the train between Nottingham and Birmingham, so there is a market there, it is just how you attract people to the coach. So why don't people use it?

The cost is less, but a longer journey, and a poor spread of journies, nothing to get you there before 10am or return after 7pm. Even if not that frequent, if you have more options throughout the day more people will find it a viable alternative. There must be many more examples like this too.

No, some may not be viable, but it seems many of the tried and tested routes being copied are not either, so why not try other which compete more with the railway, not just with NX.

Megabus have started a Liverpool to London via Derby recently, so innovation is not dead.

 

[JonathanH]

Megabus have started a Liverpool to London via Derby recently, so innovation is not dead.

Yes, and London to Manchester via Reading, the centre of which has been off coach routes for about 30 years, but the motorway network is the same for all operators.

 

[Titfield]

Yes, 315, once Helston to Eastbourne - that sort of service (which had already been culled east of Bournemouth and west of Plymouth) has not returned to the National Express network after Covid suggesting even they don't think it is viable.

National Express don't appear to have restarted any of the 3xx routes. The core parts of them now run as 1xx routes without the tentacles into less remunerative locations and links. I doubt Flixbus are going to make any money getting into that sort of market.

It poses an interesting question:

which type of operation is likely to be more remunerative? -

a) services which duplicate the national rail network and have large established flows

or

b) services which cover gaps in the national rail network.

Increasingly option A seems to be the choice which further makes those towns without a railway service dependent on the car.

 

[route101]

I like how you can book the seat next to you to be unoccupied for a slight fee. Bit of a win over National Express and Megabus who don't offer it.

If Megabus offered this, I would use the coach more. My worry is how would you stop someone sitting next to you.

 

[ragamuffin]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t the space or demand for three coach operators.
I shouldn’t say this but there are some very “nervous” people at national express right now.
Demand just hasn’t returned as quickly as we thought it would. Demand bounced back quicker last year after the first lockdown but it’s taking much, much longer this time. Weekends particularly used to be a sellout. Not anymore. How on Earth flixbus intend to make ground I do not know.

This is interesting. Do you have any idea why demand isn't returning? Feels like things have very much "returned to normal" in my neck of the woods, so interested to hear that this isn't the case elsewhere.

 

[Scotrail314209]

This is interesting. Do you have any idea why demand isn't returning? Feels like things have very much "returned to normal" in my neck of the woods, so interested to hear that this isn't the case elsewhere.

I agree with the demand part here. Scottish services seem to be back to their usual demand with only the early morning and late evening Scottish Citylink services being quiet.

Even more so today with the Scotrail strikes.

Maybe demand for certain intercity connections across the UK simply isn’t there anymore?

 

[GusB]

Could we please remember that the subject of the thread is Flixbus? Other operators have their own threads. Thanks

 

[ragamuffin]

Surely a lack of demand affects all operators?