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First will not take over West Coast from December

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HH

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Have you considered the possibility that the people evaluating the bids were(1) under-resourced, and (2) unable to understand fully what they were dealing with?

Yes, it would be pretty bad, but in Modern Railways Roger Ford said he hadn't yet been able to grasp the GDP-related mechanism and quoted someone senior in First who admitted that he didn't understand it and that some "very clever people" had needed to run it several times.
It was Hugh Clancy (First Rail Group Commercial Director), and I know those 'clever' people. Clearly First had had a problem with the mechanism, and they weren't the only ones. But the DfT guys came up with the bloody thing; one would hope therefore that they did understand it. I think the mechanism can be understood by anyone who has a decent level of maths; the problem comes in understanding just what the effects are. Unlike the previous mechanism it's not intuitive, i.e. you can't immediately visualise the effect in your head. At least most people can't.

It would be poetic justice if this was the bit DfT had gotten wrong.

It seems possible that the DfT have made their franchise frameworks so complicated that they are not only difficult for the TOCs to understand fully, but also difficult for the DfT to evaluate.
The written section evaluation is understood by everyone. Some of the markings are a bit harder to understand, and the reasons for these may now never see the light of day, much to bidder's frustration.

The monetary model is also well understood. What is not understood hardly at all is the risk adjustment process. Thus my earlier point; if Virgin and First have received some (even redacted) documentation, this will give them an advantage in (all) future competitions. No other bidder, on ICWC or elsewhere, has any idea on DfT thinking in this area. Where do they see the risks laying, and by how much? Clearly it didn't seem to be on crowding...
 
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merlodlliw

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No, they certainly don't have a special right, but should be treated fairly. What I'm saying is that incumbent TOCs should not be compromised by the failings of DfT to run the application process properly.
Well put response Snail,

North Wales Rail comment said this on Tuesday "The whole concept seems very strange. Here is a question for readers who own or manage businesses. Can you guess what your profits will be in fifteen years' time?"
 

IanXC

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It was Hugh Clancy (First Rail Group Commercial Director), and I know those 'clever' people. Clearly First had had a problem with the mechanism, and they weren't the only ones. But the DfT guys came up with the bloody thing; one would hope therefore that they did understand it. I think the mechanism can be understood by anyone who has a decent level of maths; the problem comes in understanding just what the effects are. Unlike the previous mechanism it's not intuitive, i.e. you can't immediately visualise the effect in your head. At least most people can't.

Hmm, I've wondered for a while whether there were 2 different approaches to this problem. If Virgin ignored the DfT model and came up with their numbers from their own model, and First effectively used their model and the DfT model as a pair of simulateous equations. They would then have solved for the highest DfT model result with an acceptable result in their own model.
 

The Ham

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Well put response Snail,

North Wales Rail comment said this on Tuesday "The whole concept seems very strange. Here is a question for readers who own or manage businesses. Can you guess what your profits will be in fifteen years' time?"

Well if the frequency at which the companies in the FTSE 100 change I would suggest either a) a lot more than currently or b) a lot less than currently.

Most of the former come up with new products/services and/or merge with other companies, only a few do so with just increasing their sales doing what they are currently doing.
 

HH

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Hmm, I've wondered for a while whether there were 2 different approaches to this problem. If Virgin ignored the DfT model and came up with their numbers from their own model, and First effectively used their model and the DfT model as a pair of simulateous equations. They would then have solved for the highest DfT model result with an acceptable result in their own model.
It's not the model that's been cited as the problem, at least directly, it's the DfT's Risk "Ready Reckoner" which no-one had seen, so your idea is not possible. Almost certainly every bidder had a different view on the level of risk, hence the different levels of bids. DfT would have had a different view to all bidders, as no bidder would have submitted it's risk view as part of the bid.

Did Virgin use the consultant Europa to look at the risk levels of their bid after the event, or during. This is unclear, but if they truly thought it was £40m, then I doubt their competence. First have not shown any evidence of where 'their' figure came from; probably because they don't have any - it suited them to say that their number agreed with DfT, just as it suited Virgin to say the same thing.

My own view is that First's subordinated loan should be some way north of £1bn, and Virgin's several hundred million. This would make some sense of the government decision to close the competition (neither bidder that had been included in negotiations would have been able to proceed).

In other news, an FT article quotes Patrick Twist, a lawyer at Pinsent Masons, who says that DfT may be breaking European Law if it gives Virgin a franchise extension. The key point is that while the government has powers to extend franchises in cases of extreme urgency, "that urgency cannot be brought about by the actions of the procuring authority". Oops.
 

E16 Cyclist

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It's not the model that's been cited as the problem, at least directly, it's the DfT's Risk "Ready Reckoner" which no-one had seen, so your idea is not possible. Almost certainly every bidder had a different view on the level of risk, hence the different levels of bids. DfT would have had a different view to all bidders, as no bidder would have submitted it's risk view as part of the bid.

Did Virgin use the consultant Europa to look at the risk levels of their bid after the event, or during. This is unclear, but if they truly thought it was £40m, then I doubt their competence. First have not shown any evidence of where 'their' figure came from; probably because they don't have any - it suited them to say that their number agreed with DfT, just as it suited Virgin to say the same thing.

My own view is that First's subordinated loan should be some way north of £1bn, and Virgin's several hundred million. This would make some sense of the government decision to close the competition (neither bidder that had been included in negotiations would have been able to proceed).

In other news, an FT article quotes Patrick Twist, a lawyer at Pinsent Masons, who says that DfT may be breaking European Law if it gives Virgin a franchise extension. The key point is that while the government has powers to extend franchises in cases of extreme urgency, "that urgency cannot be brought about by the actions of the procuring authority". Oops.

If the subordinated loan figures really were that high then no private company in their right mind would agree to it as the risk is just too great. And then we'd be looking at two possible scenerios either the eventual nationalisation of the rail network or more likely we'll see the further roll out of rail concessions with companies being given management contracts. But you'd have to ask would the likes of First, Govia etc be interested in management contracts which would obviously limit the potential return for the companies and their shareholders.

I was thinking the same thing about whether it would break European Law, if you think back to when Siemens beat Bombardier to the Thameslink contract we were told by the government that a reversal would be against European Law. Surely the same applies here and it would be illegal to give Virgin an extension regardless of how small and at the very least would put the DfT in real risk of legal action from First and a hefty payout which we the taxpayers would have to pay.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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I was thinking the same thing about whether it would break European Law, if you think back to when Siemens beat Bombardier to the Thameslink contract we were told by the government that a reversal would be against European Law. Surely the same applies here and it would be illegal to give Virgin an extension regardless of how small and at the very least would put the DfT in real risk of legal action from First and a hefty payout which we the taxpayers would have to pay.

I think they are different types of contract.
Thameslink is essentially a product supply contract, while a franchise is a service contract.
The possible difficulty about the franchise extension is that VT has already had 15 years which is the normal maximum for such a contract (and has had one extension already for the revised bid period).
It's not to do with VT versus First in the recent failed bid process. Asking VT to carry on temporarily is not a "reversal".
DfT will have to get clearance from the EU competition authority for an extension (and it might therefore not be a franchise in the normal sense).
One reason seems to be that "only VT has a safety case for the route".
 

HH

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If the subordinated loan figures really were that high then no private company in their right mind would agree to it as the risk is just too great. And then we'd be looking at two possible scenerios either the eventual nationalisation of the rail network or more likely we'll see the further roll out of rail concessions with companies being given management contracts. But you'd have to ask would the likes of First, Govia etc be interested in management contracts which would obviously limit the potential return for the companies and their shareholders.

If bidders take a responsible view on risk, which may be enforced by a decent solvency test, we are going to see much lower bids winning. This is as a direct result of DfT forcing a much higher share of risk on bidders, while still denying them the major tools to mitigate lower revenue.

In my opinion DfT have to find a mechanism to lower the risk if they want the high premiums. You'd not find such a contract (15 years with no break clause) anywhere else; it just doesn't work. Ruining a supplier is not good business.

You could, for instance, put in break clauses; allow for alterations of premiums based on changing indices; put in a more equitable profit share arrangement.

First's bid was either an error, a stupid risk, or aimed at gaming the system. DfT shouldn't want any of these situations to produce a winning bid, so some serious rethinking needs to be done.
 

Realfish

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I hope this isn't true

Why do you say that?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
..... it would be illegal to give Virgin an extension regardless of how small and at the very least would put the DfT in real risk of legal action from First and a hefty payout which we the taxpayers would have to pay.

Unless the Government have been using this time to obtain the approval of the EC regulators for temporary relief. Something that they have successfully done in the past, albeit in the provision of otherwise 'illegal' subsidies.
 

jon0844

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Virgin Trains said:
"We are in no doubt that staff and customers want Virgin Trains to carry on. There is no reason to take it away from Virgin."

Erm, besides not having won the franchise that ends on December 9th.

If there's no other option, I guess it's going to have to be - but it would be totally wrong for Virgin to claim this as any sort of victory (which of course they will).

The problem is what happens in 18 months time. They'll just argue that there's no reason to run another bidding process and get the public to start a new petition to have it extended another 18 months...
 

curly42

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Erm, besides not having won the franchise that ends on December 9th.

If there's no other option, I guess it's going to have to be - but it would be totally wrong for Virgin to claim this as any sort of victory (which of course they will).

The problem is what happens in 18 months time. They'll just argue that there's no reason to run another bidding process and get the public to start a new petition to have it extended another 18 months...


Well said,that's exactly my problem with the situation.
 

notoemt

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Didn't I read something on here about it being against EU law for Virgin to carry on running the franchise in the interim? Don't the Govt have to go cap in hand to the EU and other interested parties to get some kind of exemption?
 

AndyLandy

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The problem is what happens in 18 months time. They'll just argue that there's no reason to run another bidding process and get the public to start a new petition to have it extended another 18 months...

As far as I'm concerned: The bidding process was flawed, so in the interests of keeping costs down, we get Virgin to keep running the franchise under a management contract until such time as the DfT are ready to run a fair franchising process. Once that's complete, the new franchisee takes over.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Didn't I read something on here about it being against EU law for Virgin to carry on running the franchise in the interim? Don't the Govt have to go cap in hand to the EU and other interested parties to get some kind of exemption?

I think the point is that they don't run the "franchise", they have a "management contract" to caretake the line until the issues surrounding the franchising process are resolved. I'm sure there'll be some legalese that allows this to happen.
 

cainebj

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I think the point is that they don't run the "franchise", they have a "management contract" to caretake the line until the issues surrounding the franchising process are resolved. I'm sure there'll be some legalese that allows this to happen.

From a legal point of view, thats right on the nose. Virgin wouldn't hold the franchise, but rather their expertise and management would be contracted to the DfT, with the DfT calling the shots (even as far as telling Virgin how big their logo can be on the train if they so wish). For it to work like that, all revenue from fares would be collected by Virgin and paid directly to the DfT, with Virgin being paid a fixed fee for their services, a fee that would be agreed by both parties before such a deal is signed. The other option of course, as has been discussed, is DOR holding the franchise but contracting the operation out to Virgin until DOR are in a position to run themselves, Virgin would still run the actual day to day operation but wouldn't hold the franchise. Perfectly legal to do this as long as both parties agree to the fixed fee paid to Virgin and the contract length. Of course, a management contract could be handed to any operating company at the DfT's choice, but as Virgin already operate the franchise it would be inefficient to start discussions with other operators for this.
As has been said, in this instance NO operating company has the right to operate the services, it is down to the DfT to decide themselves, of which can legally be done without a fair competition. Naturally, First will be upset at the DfT handing a management contract to Virgin, but to be honest nothing can be done in this instance. Strictly speaking from a competition perspective, a small tender process would normally be required to decide who will run the management contract, but being so close to the franchise end now, the time is not there to run a fair competition process, therefore such management contract could be declared as an emergency contract, which does not need a competition (decision made by the DfT based on which operator has the resources ready to take over the operation, which in this case is Virgin) and would normally run for a maximum 12 months, though there are exceptions. BUT until the DfT make their announcement, no one can know for sure if Virgin will even be taking over on a management contract basis, until then it is all assumptions, for all we know the DfT could have a different operating company lined up to take a management contract. The immediate concern is not First vs. Virgin, but ensuring trains continue to operate smoothly with minimal disruption to passengers.

No doubt it has already been covered, there's too many pages to try find it, but First never technically won the franchise from a legal perspective, they were only declared as preferred bidder, a nice little "cover your backside" way from the DfT, and is quite common in public service contracts, be it tendered bus services, IT service provider or maintenance provider for councils etc.
Due to this, and my own personal opinion of course, First wouldn't have much to go on to take to the courts in the event of Virgin still running the mainline from 9th December, they would only have became the franchise winner once the contract was signed. If any legal action was to be successful, it would be based on share value, but again that would most likely only be considered if the share value now, after the process was cancelled, is considerably lower than it was before First were announced as preferred bidder. If it is only slightly lower they could struggle with a case, as share value variates on a daily basis, and could be affected by their recent failings with their UK Greyhound services or bus disposals, and would therefore be difficult to prove such a small drop in share value as a direct result of the franchise process being cancelled.

I'm not against First, nor am I against Virgin, I am unbiased, but my own personal opinion is the threat of legal action in the press from First is a poor copy of how Branson uses the press to put across his point. They're clearly not happy about the system being flawed so are attempting to throw their toys out of the pram Branson style to get what they want. Virgin shouldn't have pushed everything out in the press to start with, they should have pressed ahead for the judicial review quietly and in a controlled manner, but any adult (without bias against either First or Virgin) would admit that First trying the same is just childish. Of course, those who favour First would think it was childish of Branson to use the press to his advantage, but think it is perfectly fine for First to do so.
 

Holly

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Read the article carefully.
MINISTERS are poised to hand Virgin Rail an 18-month extension to run the West Coast Mainline.
Transport Secretary Partick McLoughlin is set to announce ...
Poised to and set to does not mean the same as will nor intends to.
Only that the option to act so - remains open, nothing more.
 

snail

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And as cainebj puts very succintly, it's more likely to be a management contract than an extension. Not that some of the press (or possibly the Virgin PR machine) would see it that way.

One thing I think is pretty clear is that none of this will have anything to do with petitions or how Virgin Trains are perceived by the public at large.
 

jon0844

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So many people are of the opinion that if Virgin hadn't done anything wrong (and by that, I presume they mean defaulting - as nobody can claim Virgin has done NO wrong in the last 15 years) then they should be given the franchise for the whole term (and presumably after that too). Yet, if you asked if they thought the same should apply to, say, First Capital Connect, I'm sure they'd say 'no way'!

I presume this means that people think there's only the need to open bids to others if the incumbent operator fails in some way (and that they're popular). If that was the case, it would certainly make it easier, and great for Virgin given how much it makes from rail.

I can see that if people become loyal to a specific 'brand' then there's always going to be some disappointment to see the loss of a name like Virgin, even if very little actually changes. I was a little sad to see Wagn go, but mainly because I grew up with Wagn.

That's possibly why it would be a better idea to have standard branding and liveries/uniforms and then let a private company operate them. Far less chance of anyone deciding to base their judgement on the best operator for the user/taxpayer than the popularity of a brand or the CEO.

I am not sure people realise the current franchise ended and seem to think (perhaps because of how the media reported it or the spin from SRB) that Virgin was kicked out by a corrupt Government that did a deal with First Group. It obviously wasn't but I'm amazed at how many people don't realise that, as well as the number of people that are using one single franchise (a relatively small one at that) as proof of the need to renationalise the whole railway.
 

calc7

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I am not sure people realise the current franchise ended and seem to think (perhaps because of how the media reported it or the spin from SRB) that Virgin was kicked out by a corrupt Government that did a deal with First Group. It obviously wasn't but I'm amazed at how many people don't realise that, as well as the number of people that are using one single franchise (a relatively small one at that) as proof of the need to renationalise the whole railway.

Or rather, rightly or wrongly, the layman is "happy enough" with the IMO consistently good service provided on a daily basis and thinks "if it ain't broke, it don't need fixing".

Of course this doesn't sit very will with EU competition law.
 

jon0844

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I can see the logic, but then you can't have a franchising system. And if you awarded a franchise that allowed an operator to absolutely rake it in, you'd be unable to get rid of them (or at least change the terms).
 

Realfish

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Not long to go now! But I see that Bob is on the warpath. But clearly a different warpath to the one he was one when First were annnounced as the provisional winner.

On the question of EU rules - I see that the EU requirement for RBS to sell off it's branches, because of the emergency state aid it received, may now not be met in the prescribed timecale as Santander has pulled out at the last minute. Dispensation for an extension to the deadline may need to be sought from Brussels (and as an aside, Virgin Money are said to be keen to step in). It will be interesting to see if HMG has sought similar dispensation for the West Coast.

http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2012/10/12-union-may-launch-legal-challenge.html
 

Donny Dave

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Not long to go now! But I see that Bob is on the warpath. But clearly a different warpath to the one he was one when First were annnounced as the provisional winner.

On the question of EU rules - I see that the EU requirement for RBS to sell off it's branches, because of the emergency state aid it received, may now not be met in the prescribed timecale as Santander has pulled out at the last minute. Dispensation for an extension to the deadline may need to be sought from Brussels (and as an aside, Virgin Money are said to be keen to step in). It will be interesting to see if HMG has sought similar dispensation for the West Coast.

http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2012/10/12-union-may-launch-legal-challenge.html

AFAIUI, the deadline for RBS to sell off some of it's branches is sometime in 2014, so plenty of time yet for them to get the best deal they can.
 

tbtc

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Poor Bob - has he not had his picture in the paper for a few days? Feeling lonely?

I really don't see his point here - he wanted Virgin to win a few weeks ago (when First were going to cut hundreds of jobs, including all of the catering ones), now he's still not happy?

Since all permanent RMT staff are presumably covered by TUPE, what's it to do with him? (other than more publicity)
 

E16 Cyclist

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Poor Bob - has he not had his picture in the paper for a few days? Feeling lonely?

I really don't see his point here - he wanted Virgin to win a few weeks ago (when First were going to cut hundreds of jobs, including all of the catering ones), now he's still not happy?

Since all permanent RMT staff are presumably covered by TUPE, what's it to do with him? (other than more publicity)

The ironic thing is his members myself included have done very well out of privatisation by creating a market for skilled staff that didn't previously exsist
 

tbtc

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The ironic thing is his members myself included have done very well out of privatisation by creating a market for skilled staff that didn't previously exsist

Absolutely - I'd respect him a lot more if he was honest about the benefits of privatisation such as the ones you mention (rather than banging on about nationalisation)
 

ainsworth74

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Wait hasn't he just changed sides? Wasn't he pro-Virgin a week or two ago?
 
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