Do you not think bus use may have dropped in Bradford due to how many of the shops have closed and given the choice, most people will look towards Leeds now.
No. Even if people are looking towards Leeds for their retail therapy, you have to get to Leeds and Leeds really is a PITA to drive to.
The 633 serves Shipley and the 615/619 serve Bingley, so even if people were travelling on public transport into Leeds and wishing to avoid Bradford, they'd still need to use the bus to get to the train station.
It will be interesting when franchising starts if the combined authority does publish transparent patronage numbers without any smoke and mirrors so we can see if bus use in Bradford does grow significantly if they remove AI timetables and increase frequencies.
The business case for franchising is based on declining passenger numbers.
Do you use these routes to know whether or not they are profitable or have reasonable loads? I don't disagree that First has damaged themselves with AI timetables, but you can't ignore the impact the closure of Interchange has had.
I'm from Bradford, although I no longer live there I do go back every now and then to see family. When I lived there, the 633 (and its predecessors) was the bus I used.
Wrose, the main area the 633 serves between Bradford and Shipley, has a population of about 6,000. Yet First reckon it can't support two buses an hour? Yeah right.
The closure of the Interchange had a negligible effect on passenger numbers. People heading to Bradford city centre used the stops in Bradford city centre rather than walking up to the Interchange. It's not a long walk to the Interchange but why would you walk there when your bus stops in the city centre?
The routes in question serve the city centre after leaving the Interchange. My experience, both before and after the pedestrianisation, is that 90% of people would get on and off the buses on these routes in the city centre because that was where they were going. I only ever used the bus to the Interchange if I was catching a train and, even then, half the time I got off in the city centre and used Forster Square. The Interchange was only ever really a thing for the buses coming from the south of Bradford because routes like the 576 or the 268 didn't extend beyond the Interchange into the city centre.
The closure of the Interchange was irritating but the replacement stops were right next to the Interchange; IIRC the 633 used a temporary stop outside the Courts.
until the pandemic Transdev managed to keep the Keighley to Bradford service at the 80s 6bph level - they've since dropped it to 4bph, but 6bph in the peaks
And it has brand new buses too.
Apparently the First 622 was at risk of cancellation too, although ultimately it wasn't cancelled- for now. I'm actually a bit surprised it wasn't cancelled, given that it follows the same route as the 662 for the most part.
Transdev are by no means perfect, but compared to First they're light years ahead.