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First Group terminates two franchises?

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4-SUB 4732

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Struggling to verify with News and checking around but LBC have just reported that First Group have reached agreement to terminate two franchises.

Anybody able to shed more light? I would assume it is SWR and TPE?
 
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Bletchleyite

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They are SWR and Avanti West Coast, but they aren't terminating them in that sense, they are ending the original franchise agreement to move onto a management contract (i.e. Government revenue risk). They have just, for whatever reason, taken a long time to get there.

Not sure why TPE hasn't been agreed yet.
 

Domh245

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They have just, for whatever reason, taken a long time to get there.

Wasn't it in no small part as it was effectively just the DfT saying "we think you'd have had to pay this much, and we won't show you how we worked it out"

For those after a confirmation of the story: https://www.railadvent.co.uk/2020/1...ast-and-south-western-railway-franchises.html

First Group PLC has announced that they have reached an agreement with the Department for Transport over the termination sums for the rail franchises of South Western Railway and Avanti West Coast.

The two companies are currently operating under Emergency Recovery Measurements Agreements (ERMAs), which were put in place by the Department for Transport to make sure rail services continued to operate for key workers in the coronavirus pandemic.

The ERMA is in place for Avanti West Coast until the end of March 2022, and is in place for South Western Railway until the end of March 2021.

Train operators and the Department for Transport must agree whether any payment is required to terminate the existing franchise agreements, and if so, how much.

The DfT and First Group have announced that no sum is needed for Avanti West Coast, which started in December 2019 and had been performing well before the pandemic.

An agreement has been reached for South Western Railway, which requires a further contribution from FirstGroup of £33.2m.
 

47444

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FirstGroup plc (‘FirstGroup’ or ‘the Group’) has reached agreement with the Department for Transport (‘DfT’) on next steps for the South Western Railway (‘SWR’) and West Coast Partnership train operating companies, the latter of which comprises Avanti West Coast and the shadow operator for HS2 (together, ‘Avanti’).

As announced on 20 September, these two companies are currently operating under Emergency Recovery Measures Agreements (‘ERMA’) which were put in place by the DfT to provide continuity for rail passengers and the industry during the coronavirus pandemic. The ERMA for Avanti is in place to the end of March 2022 and the SWR ERMA is in place to the end of March 2021. Both can be extended by a further half year at the DfT’s discretion.

As previously stated, the ERMAs required the train operators and the DfT to agree whether any payment is required to terminate the pre-existing franchise agreements, and if so how much, based on a pre-coronavirus trajectory financial model. The DfT and FirstGroup have agreed that no termination sum is required for Avanti, which commenced operations in December 2019 and was performing well prior to the pandemic. Agreement has also been reached for a termination sum for SWR, which requires a further FirstGroup contribution of £33.2m. This represents the Group’s share of parent company support and additional funding commitments under the franchise agreement, less amounts already paid into the operating company, and which will be paid at the end of the ERMA term. The full exposure to SWR performance bonds and parent company support has already been provided in our accounts. The pre-existing franchise agreements will therefore terminate at the end of the ERMA term for SWR and Avanti. Agreement of the termination sums significantly reduces the overall financial risk within the First Rail franchise portfolio.

Following agreement of the termination sums we are now negotiating new directly awarded management contracts with the DfT, which will come into effect at the end of the ERMAs, under which each incumbent train operator will deliver passenger rail services. The DfT have indicated that these new National Rail Contracts would last to 1 April 2023 for SWR, and to 1 April 2026 for Avanti, each with extension periods of up to two further years at the DfT’s discretion.

Our TransPennine Express (‘TPE’) rail franchise is also operating under an ERMA, and the process to agree the franchise termination sum for TPE has been extended to the end of January 2021 by the DfT. As also previously announced, the existing Emergency Measures Agreement for Great Western Railway (‘GWR’) has already been extended to June 2021.

Commenting on today’s announcement, FirstGroup Chief Executive Matthew Gregory said:

“We welcome this agreement, which marks a further evolution of the contractual framework for our SWR and Avanti train operating companies, both in the context of providing resilient services throughout the coronavirus pandemic and also a more sustainable long-term approach. These new directly awarded management contracts will focus on passengers and operational performance, with a more appropriate balance of risk and reward. We look forward to working constructively with the DfT to make this a reality, and to use our expertise and understanding of the needs of our customers to deliver improvements that we know passengers want.”

“We have acted flexibly to ensure continuity of service while implementing social distancing, as well as enhanced cleaning protocols and innovative technology to improve the customer experience. Passengers and employees alike can be confident that our trains are safe. We are now operating around 90% of the rail services we were prior to the pandemic. We will continue to bring all our experience to bear alongside Government and industry partners to deliver the next phase of recovery of the rail network.”
 

LNW-GW Joint

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It's probably an important moment in the evolution of franchising, at least for these two franchises.
Especially for Avanti, which looks like continuing until 2026 with the expected direct award.
No mention of Trenitalia, who must still be negotiating on c2c.
TPE will be awkward, as the settlement there could be large.

Still no hint as to what industry changes are coming once the franchises are extinguished.
Like for like management contracts doesn't take us very far.
 

Ceat0908

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What are the main differences with the existing model and the new management contracts? Using Avanti as an example, will much change other in the way that first group and trenitalia will get paid?
 

Domh245

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What’s happening with TPE as that has been in trouble for some time.

From the Firstgroup press release

Our TransPennine Express (‘TPE’) rail franchise is also operating under an ERMA, and the process to agree the franchise termination sum for TPE has been extended to the end of January 2021 by the DfT.

Looks to be heading the same way as these two franchise, just a month or so later
 

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I wonder how long it will be before people start calling for Virgin to snatch Avanti in 2022..
Except it is likely under the new regime they won't be able to have the branding freedom of the past

What’s happening with TPE as that has been in trouble for some time.
I have heard that First think that theoretically things would have started to turn around if COVID hadn't happened with the new stock being introduced fully by now - probably also arguments about who is to blame for specific issues (e.g. how much compensation would CAF pay regarding Mk5 delays)
 

LNW-GW Joint

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What are the main differences with the existing model and the new management contracts? Using Avanti as an example, will much change other in the way that first group and trenitalia will get paid?

Well, franchise commitments will fall away, and services, fares and rolling stock will be determined by DfT.
Very similar to the current Emergency direct awards, I expect.
I suspect staff employment terms will eventually be regulated too (on a national model).
DfT will be able to change things at short notice.
 

DarloRich

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Like for like management contracts doesn't take us very far.


Kicks the can down the road for a bit though doesn't it and means a stressed out government doesn't have to try to sort this and everything else they have going on. Any costs can be lost in the COVID mess and any positives can be spun into a bad post brexit news world. Cynical? ;)
 

Bletchleyite

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Kicks the can down the road for a bit though doesn't it and means a stressed out government doesn't have to try to sort this and everything else they have going on. Any costs can be lost in the COVID mess and any positives can be spun into a bad post brexit news world. Cynical? ;)

I'd say sensible. There's too much to deal with at the moment to be bothered about the railway.
 

Roast Veg

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Is the TPE payout related to costs incurred in aquiring the new fleets? I assume the way these things are calculated is akin to projected payments/payout to/from the DfT made over the lifetime of the franchise multiplied by the percentage real time elapsed, plus a bit of sweetener for the TOC?
 

Bletchleyite

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Is the TPE payout related to costs incurred in aquiring the new fleets? I assume the way these things are calculated is akin to projected payments/payout to/from the DfT made over the lifetime of the franchise multiplied by the percentage real time elapsed, plus a bit of sweetener for the TOC?

If I understand things correctly, the payment is essentially based on what the TOC is getting away with not losing (!) due to the termination, based on a scenario where COVID hadn't happened, so they don't gain from having made a "bad" bid.
 

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If Virgin agree to cover pensions. That was why they lost the franchise in the first place. Although I wouldn't be keen on the 'mandatory reservation or you can't travel policy' they were considering introducing just before the franchise ended. Then the Azuma name and the Japanese writing would return to the 80x series. Maybe you'd even get a Japanese style mascot talking in the toilets. The potential there...
 

Robertj21a

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Except it is likely under the new regime they won't be able to have the branding freedom of the past


I have heard that First think that theoretically things would have started to turn around if COVID hadn't happened with the new stock being introduced fully by now - probably also arguments about who is to blame for specific issues (e.g. how much compensation would CAF pay regarding Mk5 delays)
First Group has spent about a decade telling everyone that things are about to get better.
 

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So AWC must surely now get the record for the shortest franchise, at less than a year (just).
The original LTS franchise - awarded to a management buyout team - was due to start on the same day as the first two franchises (GWT and SWT). It was cancelled right at the last minute, due to fraud allegations.

Of course Virgin's "successful" franchise bid back in 2012 also ended up being cancelled, but I don't think the full franchise agreement had yet been signed in that case.

But I would agree that, having operated for less than 4 months under the original terms of their franchise, Avanti probably take the cake for the shortest franchise that ever actually ran trains.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If Virgin agree to cover pensions. That was why they lost the franchise in the first place. Although I wouldn't be keen on the 'mandatory reservation or you can't travel policy' they were considering introducing just before the franchise ended. Then the Azuma name and the Japanese writing would return to the 80x series. Maybe you'd even get a Japanese style mascot talking in the toilets. The potential there...

The irony is that those pension risks will now be irrelevant in the new contracts, as they are part of the underlying costs of the operation.
So had Virgin kept going under their direct award on West Coast for another year, they would now have the same 6-year deal as First Group.
 

fgwrich

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If Virgin agree to cover pensions. That was why they lost the franchise in the first place. Although I wouldn't be keen on the 'mandatory reservation or you can't travel policy' they were considering introducing just before the franchise ended. Then the Azuma name and the Japanese writing would return to the 80x series. Maybe you'd even get a Japanese style mascot talking in the toilets. The potential there...

Azuma would be pretty pointless on the West Coast when Azuma is said to mean East in Japanese. You would also have the confusion of two "Azuma Services" at places like Edinburgh Waverley.
 

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The South Western Railway termination payment is £33.2 million. Costs already written off were £102m.

This means that a total of £135m of the £146m Parent Company Guarantee has been forfeited by First.
 

dk1

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The South Western Railway termination payment is £33.2 million. Costs already written off were £102m.

This means that a total of £135m of the £146m Parent Company Guarantee has been forfeited by First.
Ouch!!!
 
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