First Group: General Discussion

[Andyh82]

That's the surprising bit (to me) - whilst selling off depots individually may make bits more attractive to a "medium" buyer (rather than just one of the other massive companies), it'd be quite a risk to buy only one of them, given that you'd then potentially be facing competition from all sides.
Stagecoach were allowed to buy Wigan without competition problems (which would have been unthinkable once upon a time) but I don't know how the neighbouring bits of Stagecoach/ Arriva/ Transdev will affect who is allowed to buy what in Greater Manchester.

Although each individual depot is upwards of 150-200 buses are they not? So you’d still be looking at the big boys. I’d say they might be too big for the likes of Rotala or Transdev.

 

[winston270twm]

It's a done deal and it may well not be the only business being cut adrift in the first half of this year. from what I have heard so keep your eyes peeled for more.

That sounds interesting.... I was begining to think First Group would have to continue in their current format to prevent large losses on the books.

 

[overthewater]

As i said two post back do not rule out Go ahead of Diamonds.

That sounds interesting.... I was begining to think First Group would have to continue in their current format to prevent large losses on the books.

How did I mist F Great Eastern post.

I can't see much going bar two area, if it does then I think its panic station, then is the money being used to pay off the pension? How will the management cope with loss of areas?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That sounds interesting.... I was begining to think First Group would have to continue in their current format to prevent large losses on the books.

That was my view but evidently not.

Although each individual depot is upwards of 150-200 buses are they not? So you’d still be looking at the big boys. I’d say they might be too big for the likes of Rotala or Transdev.

A big deal for Rotala but possible, especially at a knock down price. Transdev is a €6bn global business so whilst a smaller U.K. player, they could certainly be involved.

 

[winston270twm]

That was my view but evidently not.

A big deal for Rotala but possible, especially at a knock down price. Transdev is a €6bn global business so whilst a smaller U.K. player, they could certainly be involved.

Rotala have the finance in place if required & publically announced they were looking to acquire potential disposals from the big group in Route one. I think NX must be a contender along with Transdev & possibly Go-Ahead.

I suspect Stagecoach will be unable to take part & Arriva aren't looking to expand.

The quoted sale price of £20 million sounds low. It will be interesting to see how these depots/routes perform under new owners & with investment.

 

[carlberry]

Rotala have the finance in place if required & publically announced they were looking to acquire potential disposals from the big group in Route one. I think NX must be a contender along with Transdev & possibly Go-Ahead.

I suspect Stagecoach will be unable to take part & Arriva aren't looking to expand.

The quoted sale price of £20 million sounds low. It will be interesting to see how these depots/routes perform under new owners & with investment.

The problem for any new owners is, if Andy Burnham gets his (previously reported) way, what have they actually bought?

 

[overthewater]

The problem for any new owners is, if Andy Burnham gets his (previously reported) way, what have they actually bought?

A chance to grab alot more work if thier get their sums rights.

 

[tbtc]

Although each individual depot is upwards of 150-200 buses are they not? So you’d still be looking at the big boys. I’d say they might be too big for the likes of Rotala or Transdev.

Possibly - I'm just trying to find a way to justify the idea to sell depots separately, given that they'd presumably have a simpler time selling in one big chunk. Selling in three parts must either be because they think that'll make a depot affordable (noting your comment about them still be relatively big depots) or because they don't think that the biggest other companies will be interested (or, in the case of Stagecoach, allowed to bid).

But if they are willing to sell assets for £20m (that were once valued at £100m) then that may make other bits of the "empire" look tempting to buyers with cash in their pockets - if a former "jewel" like Greater Manchester can get sold so cheaply then what else? And, if they are prepared to walk away from such a big operation as Greater Manchester then will they waste much time propping up West Lothian?

(there's the question of who has the money and enthusiasm to expand, of course - Arriva seem to be retrenching - there's a nice touch if Go Ahead took over and reunited the former Finglands rump with the former parent company in East Yorkshire under the same organisation)

 

[KendalKing]

Although each individual depot is upwards of 150-200 buses are they not?

Bolton & Oldham have 210 buses allocated, Manchester has 165 buses allocated.

 

[KendalKing]

The problem for any new owners is, if Andy Burnham gets his (previously reported) way, what have they actually bought?

Could this be the reason, why First is wanting to pull out of Manchester?

 

[winston270twm]

The problem for any new owners is, if Andy Burnham gets his (previously reported) way, what have they actually bought?

They'll have bought a depot & fleet complete with established infrastructure & operators license to potentially bid for packages of routes should the quality contracts get the go ahead (which is looking increasingly more unlikely). Rotala have been actively expanding in GM in recent years, I suspect both due to being loss making & also the threat of quality contracts is why First are only looking at raising £20 million. I'd have thought First Manchester would have been stronger / more valuable being sold in its present form.

 

[Yorks185]

Rotala have the finance in place if required & publically announced they were looking to acquire potential disposals from the big group in Route one. I think NX must be a contender along with Transdev & possibly Go-Ahead.

I suspect Stagecoach will be unable to take part & Arriva aren't looking to expand.

The quoted sale price of £20 million sounds low. It will be interesting to see how these depots/routes perform under new owners & with investment.

I think Stagecoach could get away buying Bolton,with Arriva,Transdev,Vision & Cumfybus still operating in the town i think that might be enough to keep the CMA happy

Go Ahead would be a good fit,with the possible franchising in GM,Go Ahead seem to be doing very well in areas that already have it (London,Singapore,Dublin) Cheetham Hill depot would be good for this as its fairly central

I do wonder what will happen to the current cross border services,I could see the 184 cut back as i dont think any operator would gain much running an hourly service on the Marsden - Huddersfield corridor against First (assuming First WY add a 6th bus to replace GMs),but also would First want to compete on the Littleborough - Rochdale corridor against both Rosso & a new operator

 

[overthewater]

What operators license? First has one for Manchester so it could tech only be sold to with one of the depots, with the other two depots route will need to transferred to somewhere else.

 

[WatcherZero]

Could this be the reason, why First is wanting to pull out of Manchester?

Been going on longer, they sold Wigan in 2012, been in full retreat on tendered services they operated and have been closing depots.

In fact an interesting comparison is they are talking about selling First Manchester, 3 depots and 600 odd buses for £20m, they got £12m for Wigan depot and 120 buses.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

I think Stagecoach could get away buying Bolton with Arriva, Transdev, Vision & Cumfybus still operating in the town I think that might be enough to keep the CMA happy.

I do wonder what will happen to the current cross border services, I could see the 184 cut back as I don't think any operator would gain much running an hourly service on the Marsden - Huddersfield corridor against First (assuming First WY add a 6th bus to replace GMs), but also would First want to compete on the Littleborough - Rochdale corridor against both Rosso & a new operator.

Stagecoach has a depot around Ardwick, Stagecoach could buy the Oldham depot and close the Ardwick depot. Thus seeing the birth of Stagecoach Oldham,. who then could flood the Standedge corridor (services 180 - 186) with services to Huddersfield to try and drive First Huddersfield off the said corridor. First Huddersfield could then retaliate and introduce a purple flavoured HD Connect to try and win passengers in an attempt to get Stagecoach of "their" patch.

I would be very suprised if the 184 suvives in its current form, it could well end up being taken on by South Pennine Community Transport who already run a some services into Greater Manchester via the "Isle of Skye road" i.e the A635.

 

[winston270twm]

I think Stagecoach could get away buying Bolton,with Arriva,Transdev,Vision & Cumfybus still operating in the town i think that might be enough to keep the CMA happy

Go Ahead would be a good fit,with the possible franchising in GM,Go Ahead seem to be doing very well in areas that already have it (London,Singapore,Dublin) Cheetham Hill depot would be good for this as its fairly central

I do wonder what will happen to the current cross border services,I could see the 184 cut back as i dont think any operator would gain much running an hourly service on the Marsden - Huddersfield corridor against First (assuming First WY add a 6th bus to replace GMs),but also would First want to compete on the Littleborough - Rochdale corridor against both Rosso & a new operator

It's not so much Stagecoach could get away with buying Bolton, it's more to do with overall how much of GM bus market they already control. Most of Vision & Cumfybus is made up of TfGM tendered routes.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Stagecoach has a depot around Ardwick, Stagecoach could buy the Oldham depot and close the Ardwick depot. Thus seeing the birth of Stagecoach Oldham,. who then could flood the Standedge corridor (services 180 - 186) with services to Huddersfield to try and drive First Huddersfield off the said corridor. First Huddersfield could then retaliate and introduce a purple flavoured HD Connect to try and win passengers in an attempt to get Stagecoach of "their" patch.
.

Have you been smoking too much of the good stuff?

It's not so much Stagecoach could get away with buying Bolton, it's more to do with overall how much of GM bus market they already control. Most of Vision & Cumfybus is made up of TfGM tendered routes.

Indeed, and whilst Arriva and Diamond are in the area, we should remember that as a consequence of the Wigan purchase, Stagecoach have a reasonable presence running in from Atherton/Leigh. I just can't see Stagecoach getting any of the three depots.

The problem for any new owners is, if Andy Burnham gets his (previously reported) way, what have they actually bought?

A chance to grab alot more work if thier get their sums rights.

Carl's point is that, with franchising a real possibility, any company could end up buying a business and then losing it. Not even a case of getting their sums right... Someone else may be unencumbered with old terms and conditions of employment, need a lower margin, etc and simply take it. You could spend millions to have an empty depot in an iffy area of Bolton...

People will spin this various ways (e.g. how much of this is because of Burnham's plans or despite them) but there's something worrying for the bus industry when one of the biggest companies can't survive in one of the biggest cities (an operation that it's managed for over twenty years). Rather than celebrating (as some enthusiasts no doubt will), we should be soberly looking at the kind of problems experienced in struggling places like Bolton (given the changes to working/ shopping/ drinking since First took over in the mid-90s) and assessing how other towns will survive.

This was exactly what I was driving at just 8 weeks ago when I said (having visited the area and experiencing First GM):

"I wanted to really get a feel for the First Greater Manchester operation - to understand why it seems in perpetual trouble, it being about 4 years since last I tried them and then in the Oldham and Rochdale areas. There's relatively little really old stuff - in Bristol and Bath, we have plenty of old W/51/52/53 reg deckers. In FGM, what I had was pretty typical - I had a 55 plate Eclipse to Farnworth, a 12 plate e400 to Pendleton and then a 14 plate Streetlite. The problem is so much of the First fleet is middle aged with lots of 2007-9 deckers and singles. Stagecoach have similar aged e400s but in lesser numbers and with plenty of newer fleet too. So what is wrong with First GM? Better people than me will know more accurately but the take aways for me were a badly skewed age profile with vehicles looking a bit tired (though not too bad for a 13 year old Eclipse). However, the 12 plate e400 was a really telling sight. Not a bad bus really but the interior (on a cold and wet day) was hardly inviting with standard grey eLeather. The internal adverts (when not telling you off) were probably new with the bus."

"This was the moment that, to my mind, encapsulates the issues with First GM. My last but one bus was the 582 Leigh to Bolton service that I was getting to Atherton to catch a final V2. This is a core trunk service running every 8 minutes (so not clockface). I'd seen it earlier and it was operated by a mix of vehicles from a 12 plate B9, a 55 plate Eclipse, and a former Hampshire Eclipse still in its Fareham livery. My bus was an Eclipse (69521) dating from 2011 that had very nice aubergine leather seats and this batch should be the regular vehicles for the service. That vehicle is comfortable and it's a core service at a high frequency. The route branding externally was that the old 2012 low key rubbish from the early days of Urban absolutely pointless and inconsequential. No interior branding or information and no fares promotion. I see what is happening to other OpCos (having been on West of England, Kernow, Cymru, Hampshire, Berkshire, and Wyvern this year - I've been about) and whilst they're not perfect and things are a bit inconsistent, at least they're doing something to grow their business albeit with limited funds. I don't pretend that the issues with First GM are easily soluble; they operate in some places where high street spending is collapsing fastest and that economic activity is low and deprivation is high. They have also been hit hard by the tram taking patronage but still it seems to be in some sort of torpor - is this because they never had to work hard for passengers, they don't know how to? I just don't know."

There are clearly some fundamental issues with the operating area - it's depressed though Wigan nor Ashton are hardly kicking and Stagecoach seem to be able to manage and they've also been affected by the tram extensions. The fleet isn't horrific; yes, there's a lot of 2005-9 stuff and some investment 2012-4 though clearly a lack of anything else save Vantage. Perhaps the issues are more intractable than merely improving the marketing and service delivery. I had thought/hoped that this was being addressed by the depot closures, getting the cost base right by not have large fixed costs like Bury depot, and that having done so, you would see some movement in getting the business going.

However, the fact it wasn't is exactly what puzzled me - was it the threat of franchising paralysing a business or a reflection of a business that was fast becoming moribund? The fact that Phil Medlicott arrived from and returned to Stagecoach in about a year may be more telling than originally seen?

I suspect that there is money to be made from those operations but despite the experienced people that First have, I really have no idea how or why things are declined so markedly that they are selling what should be one of their powerhouse operations.

 

[Robertj21a]

I'n not even sure who runs the First Manchester operations these days. It wouldn't be the first time that poor management has dragged an operation right down.

 

[overthewater]

Isn't the Twitter service based at Manchester?

 

[Ianno87]

Been going on longer, they sold Wigan in 2012, been in full retreat on tendered services they operated and have been closing depots.

In fact an interesting comparison is they are talking about selling First Manchester, 3 depots and 600 odd buses for £20m, they got £12m for Wigan depot and 120 buses.

First Manchester seem to have been disinterested in tendered work for 20 odd years!

It's almost sad to see the comprehensive network they inherited from GM Buses North be slowly chipped away at.... so it no longer (to the passenger) has the economies of scale of a 'network'. Profit and loss of individual routes without considering the 'whole'.

Looking at Bolton, having pulled completely out off previous high frequency routes like the 519, 575 and (some years ago) the 526 and 536/537 shows the level of rot without being particularly innovative with new opportunities.

Though I suspect the slow death of town centres like Bolton is no doubt hitting them hard.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Isn't the Twitter service based at Manchester?

Thought it was Leeds nowadays?

I'n not even sure who runs the First Manchester operations these days. It wouldn't be the first time that poor management has dragged an operation right down.

It's Ian Humphreys but they've had a few in recent years. You've had Phil Medlicott, and Teresa Broxton before that. All reported into Dave Alexander (I think) but it's been a long decline. When I first lived in Manchester in 1998, it was noticeable that Stagecoach were busy investing in new B10Ms and Olympians and had eradicated all Atlanteans with Olympians and a few Dominators to reflect the GMPTE heritage. Meanwhile, First were buying new B10BLEs for front line routes yet Bolton was full of knackered Atlanteans in that tomato soup scheme.

 

[goldisgood]

Do First still own the Bury depot which the article mentioned? I could possibly see Transdev going for this, which could allow them to close Rochdale and take over more services around Bury. If not, I guess it is an error which others have commented and that they mean Queens Road.
The only depot that I could see Stagecoach getting would be Bolton, which would be a worthwhile move with Vantage services. They have too many services around Oldham and Tameside for them to get Oldham (however there are some joint services around Tameside which both Stagecoach and First run - is there space in Ashton depot for these to be taken over).

 

[185]

Woke up to this on FB this morning. Too good not to share. Goodbye windows.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Do First still own the Bury depot which the article mentioned? I could possibly see Transdev going for this, which could allow them to close Rochdale and take over more services around Bury. If not, I guess it is an error which others have commented and that they mean Queens Road.
The only depot that I could see Stagecoach getting would be Bolton, which would be a worthwhile move with Vantage services. They have too many services around Oldham and Tameside for them to get Oldham (however there are some joint services around Tameside which both Stagecoach and First run - is there space in Ashton depot for these to be taken over).

No, it's Queens Road.

I may well be wrong (not for the first time) but I can't see anything going to Stagecoach. There would be an irony SHOULD they buy Bolton, having sold their operations and depot in the town to Blazefield in 2001.

 

[winston270twm]

First Manchester seem to have been disinterested in tendered work for 20 odd years!

It's almost sad to see the comprehensive network they inherited from GM Buses North be slowly chipped away at.... so it no longer (to the passenger) has the economies of scale of a 'network'. Profit and loss of individual routes without considering the 'whole'.

Looking at Bolton, having pulled completely out off previous high frequency routes like the 519, 575 and (some years ago) the 526 and 536/537 shows the level of rot without being particularly innovative with new opportunities.

Though I suspect the slow death of town centres like Bolton is no doubt hitting them hard.

That's one element that I don't understand with the remaining Northern area routes network being broken up to be operated by 3 different operators.

That said, Manchester bus operators are joining together under the OneBus brand to steer the Mayor down the Quality Partnership route:

A £100m partnership blueprint aims to deflect from Andy Burnham’s ambition to franchise Manchester’s bus network.
Plans unveiled by OneBus, the city’s bus operator partnership, are intended to deliver better connectivity for local communities, ease the cost of travel and tackle the region’s growing congestion and air pollution. The blueprint is consistent with the new powers in the Bus Services Act.

Among its proposals is an investment in 450 new low emissions buses over the next three years, with the first 150 delivered by 2020. More flexible and simplified tickets, a recommendation of a two-year price freeze on multi-operator bus fares, as well as more affordable travel for people of all ages is planned. An action plan for Transport for Greater Manchester and other agencies to tackle congestion hotspots, speed up journeys and cut gridlock is to be formulated.

A single unified brand identity for all bus services, with individual operator buses clearly identifiable as part of a partnership, is planned. Due to be introduced is an enhanced integration of bus, tram and rail services, which is to be done alongside a joint bus network review. A fully co-ordinated, central approach to traffic management, customer contact and travel information is set to be introduced. Additionally, a better onboard customer experience is to be focused on, including extension of free wifi across the bus fleet.

Gary Nolan, Chief Executive of OneBus, said: “Buses are central to the future of Greater Manchester and this positive package of proposals can make a real difference to tackling the biggest challenges facing our communities: road congestion and air quality.

“Building on the significant investment already made by operators, there is a window of opportunity for everyone to work together to deliver a revolution in the region’s bus network that puts customers first and offers excellent value for both passengers and public investment.

“Franchising is being presented as a zero-cost guaranteed route to better buses services, but this is a myth. The major investments we are proposing can be delivered far quicker through a partnership approach and without the risk and extra cost under any alternative model.

“Only by bus operators, the Mayor and the region’s local authorities working together, can we give Greater Manchester, its economy and its communities the dynamic bus network to shape our world-class city region.”

https://www.busandcoachbuyer.com/alternative-offer-for-mayors-manchester-plan/

 

[geoffk]

Stagecoach has a depot around Ardwick, Stagecoach could buy the Oldham depot and close the Ardwick depot. Thus seeing the birth of Stagecoach Oldham,. who then could flood the Standedge corridor (services 180 - 186) with services to Huddersfield to try and drive First Huddersfield off the said corridor. First Huddersfield could then retaliate and introduce a purple flavoured HD Connect to try and win passengers in an attempt to get Stagecoach of "their" patch.

I would be very surprised if the 184 survives in its current form, it could well end up being taken on by South Pennine Community Transport who already run a some services into Greater Manchester via the "Isle of Skye road" i.e the A635.

Is 184 operated from both Oldham and Huddersfield? If so, we could see the route split in two, as it always used to be. Leaving just Huddersfield - Oldham and Halifax/Burnley - Todmorden - Rochdale with First.

 

[Hophead]

The Telegraph report is vague as to whether the sales would be to 2 or 3 "rival operators", so far as I can see.

 

[Volvodart]

The Telegraph report is vague as to whether the sales would be to 2 or 3 "rival operators", so far as I can see.

The quoted article above said each depot would go to separate bus companies.

 

[Hophead]

The quoted article above said each depot would go to separate bus companies.

Should have read it more thoroughly then!

I can't see any of the major groups currently unrepresented in Greater Manchester having an interest in a single depot, though I daresay i'll be proved wrong within days.

 

[overthewater]

It's a done deal and it may well not be the only business being cut adrift in the first half of this year. from what I have heard so keep your eyes peeled for more.

Its that other bit, which is the more interesting story... Manchester was always meh so it's no great surprise but its the axe that going to a big surprise.