First Group: General Discussion

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm sure other operators will benefit from any First retrenchments, you only have to look at the recent First Manchester Bolton service withdrawals i.e. 468, 571/572 & 575, Transdev Rosso, Vision Bus, Rotala (DBNW) & Arriva all quickly dived in to provide replacement services.

Same with Stagecoach exiting Norfolk.

 

[Robertj21a]

Same with Stagecoach exiting Norfolk.

I'm sure that all these smaller operators, with lower overheads, keen to replace the (more lucrative) routes of the 'Big Boys' will provide a breathing space for a while. However, if the business really isn't sufficient, or the concessionary pass figures just don't add up, then we may be back in the same position in a few years time. Some of the 'new' operators have a reputation for innovation and it would be good if they were able to build the network/passenger volumes.

 

[Kahuna47]

Go on, I'll bite...

If the takeover and possible breakup of First happens, what do people think will happen to First Manc?

Its an interesting bit as no-one knows whats happening with the bus reforms, and TfGM/Andy Burnham are keeping things close to their chest at the moment. Would someone take over the existing depots, or would any potential buyers just open a depot in the area and run them off the road? Are there and likely suitors who would even want all the agro that is this lovely slice and potential goldmine?

Its becoming a thing now in the canteens where drivers greet eachother by saying 'who's taking us over today then?'!

K

 

[goldisgood]

Go on, I'll bite...

If the takeover and possible breakup of First happens, what do people think will happen to First Manc?

Its an interesting bit as no-one knows whats happening with the bus reforms, and TfGM/Andy Burnham are keeping things close to their chest at the moment. Would someone take over the existing depots, or would any potential buyers just open a depot in the area and run them off the road? Are there and likely suitors who would even want all the agro that is this lovely slice and potential goldmine?

Its becoming a thing now in the canteens where drivers greet eachother by saying 'who's taking us over today then?'!

K

My guess would be Rochdale and Bury locals taken over by Transdev, Bolton locals taken over by Arriva and Diamond. Rusholme would probably see some Stagecoach service extended to Northenden and Sale replacing the 41, with the 42 from there staying the same. Core routes into Manchester spread between Arriva, Stagecoach, Transdev and, although far fetched, could 'Warrington's Own Buses' operate the 100?
Admittedly I'm unsure how the 'core routes' could end up, another operator could enter the market perhaps? Oldham I have no idea about.

 

[Robertj21a]

Go on, I'll bite...

If the takeover and possible breakup of First happens, what do people think will happen to First Manc?

Its an interesting bit as no-one knows whats happening with the bus reforms, and TfGM/Andy Burnham are keeping things close to their chest at the moment. Would someone take over the existing depots, or would any potential buyers just open a depot in the area and run them off the road? Are there and likely suitors who would even want all the agro that is this lovely slice and potential goldmine?

Its becoming a thing now in the canteens where drivers greet eachother by saying 'who's taking us over today then?'!

K

I think First Manchester will probably go before too long, regardless of whether the whole of First Group gets taken over. It's probably still worth something, and is big enough for another operator to get a good toehold in the area prior to any franchising. Not so sure about the other 'basket case' (South Yorkshire).

 

[Surreyman]

Sale of First Manchester + possible regulation in Gtr Manchester, my money would be on someone like Comfort del Gro (Metroline in London) of Singapore or RATP (London United & Sovereign)- Paris operator, or Tower Transit iLondon) Australian owned, Companies that are more comfortable with the idea of a regulated franchise, guaranteed steady income, maybe a smaller margin but the risk mostly borne by TFGM.
Of course the initial purchase price would have to be attractive and these companies have Foreign based Boards that would have to approve and agree the expenditure.
Vehicles/Depots can be bought/sold, the biggest risk is staff, would TFGM agree as part of any franchising deal that staff could be 'TUPEd' to other bus companies?
In Manchester it's obvious that Stagecoach would be unlikely to be allowed to bid, Arriva probably not (Unless multiple franchises) I think someone mentioned national Express? Could they raise the funds?

 

[overthewater]

Look at the first page on this thread (as Dalkeith was closing) and just see what was predicted....
That Chester and Northampton were identified. Ok but....BestWestern
York to go, Livingston (deffo) or Edinburgh or all of FSE (depending which “roomer” you choose), parts of West Yorkshire to Centrebus, Neath/Bridgend to Stagecoach....
Keep firing the shotgun and eventually you’ll hit something!!!

To be fair there is two point here:

Firstly: Yes back then it was like the wild west but FSE was clearly in the firing line and everyone know that, and if the right offer had turned up the other three depots would have been sold. and if Winston270 and can make following:

Worcester may well also interest NX as a bolt-on to NXWM (Remember they nearly a deal to acquire Redditch & Kidderminster months before the eventual Rotala takeover)

Then I will happily say Go Ahead or Stagecoach did take a look other parts of FSE I never believe West Yorkshire to Centrebus. York and Leicester seems to pure hog wash.

Secondly I was only give opinion as to who could buy where without trouble since BestWestern started this off with his post,

Out of interest, what do you feel might trouble the authorities with Hampshire? Currently Fareham & Gosport is a Barbie monopoly, including the contract for the 'Eclipse' busway, and Portsmouth is primarily First, etc etc et c.

Hence why I give some ideas,

I would say that maybe

* Nat express could look at Glasgow and Aberdeen. Both would be prefect fits, and both are just like Dundee and Brum. Thus their could just clamp on Dundee to Mr javis. The other part would be West Yorkshire around Leeds.
* Go ahead could look at parts of Essex to bolster its current network. Again arriva and Stephens would still complete with go ahead expanded network. Only other parts could be the south west like Bristol, Devon or Cornwall?
* Transdev would they be able to go after York?
* Rotla. They would want to stay local so maybe stoke on trent,
* I don't think stagecoach nor arriva would bid for anything and it really will be up to the smaller players to Hoover up some of the empire.

I believe I give some good reasons why what I said is possible, Nat Express to Glasgow and Aberdeen there wouldn't be cause of concern to the CC/MM/MMC? what ever there called today and it would help beef up dundee and Scotland.

Go ahead could creap into Clochester and still compete with Arriva.

I would be very very surprised to see stagecoach buying anything.

I think the big problem with operations at Worcester is the routine traffic congestion.

Leicester could always go to Wellglade since they have a 6% shareholding already.

I was thinking of that...

 

[Robertj21a]

Sale of First Manchester + possible regulation in Gtr Manchester, my money would be on someone like Comfort del Gro (Metroline in London) of Singapore or RATP (London United & Sovereign)- Paris operator, or Tower Transit iLondon) Australian owned, Companies that are more comfortable with the idea of a regulated franchise, guaranteed steady income, maybe a smaller margin but the risk mostly borne by TFGM.
Of course the initial purchase price would have to be attractive and these companies have Foreign based Boards that would have to approve and agree the expenditure.
Vehicles/Depots can be bought/sold, the biggest risk is staff, would TFGM agree as part of any franchising deal that staff could be 'TUPEd' to other bus companies?
In Manchester it's obvious that Stagecoach would be unlikely to be allowed to bid, Arriva probably not (Unless multiple franchises) I think someone mentioned national Express? Could they raise the funds?

I thought National Express were believed to have ready funds available.

The Manchester franchising arrangements appear to have some way to go before they could be thought of as anywhere near finalised.

 

[goldisgood]

I doubt Arriva would go for anything at all, as has been said by several people. With the rumours of them cancelling this year's order I wonder how long they will even be around...
As for Stagecoach, I'd think that if First were selling they might try and get a few. Possibly Bath and Bristol, Doncaster, Hoeford and Portsmouth and maybe even York. Whether the CMA would allow Portsmouth and Doncaster is a different question - York should be no problem, Bath and Bristol they only have a few minor routes.
Just a quick reasoning, as I guess there will be some out there who think this is a bizarre prediction. Bath and Bristol bolt nicely onto Stagecoach West, and they do seem to be gradually creeping into Bristol as other companies are also moving out. Doncaster would tie in nicely with their other South Yorkshire ops at the right price. York could probably be a gold mine if they play their cards right, being a similar demographic to Oxford. Portsmouth would obviously be a target - I'm hesitant on whether the CMA would allow it, as it would affect competition but they do only have 4 routes into Portsmouth, two of which serve a different market (700 serves Chichester, 20 serves the Havant - Cosham market mainly I'd be led to believe - correct me please if I'm wrong) leaving two rivalling services - the 21 and 23.
As I said, some people will disagree and think this is bizarre but I think these are the only First operations that Stagecoach would be interested in, apart from a few routes around Manchester and Sheffield perhaps.
Note I haven't included Leicester. I think if anyone gets it Wellglade will as they already have a decent share in it but I could be wrong if it is sold.

 

[overthewater]

There still a chances UK bus is sold off to another private equity group or RATP Group or Nettbuss to do as there please?

 

[winston270twm]

I thought National Express were believed to have ready funds available.

The Manchester franchising arrangements appear to have some way to go before they could be thought of as anywhere near finalised.

They do, but are far more cautious with what they buy & how much they pay for acquisitions these days:

They have very recently acquired a 315 US school bus op, Quality Bus Service in Southeastern NYS:
https://hudsonvalleynewsnetwork.com...ires-quality-bus-service-in-southeastern-nys/

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

To be fair there is two point here:

Firstly: Yes back then it was like the wild west but FSE was clearly in the firing line and everyone know that, and if the right offer had turned up the other three depots would have been sold. and if Winston270 and can make following:
Then I will happily say Go Ahead or Stagecoach did take a look other parts of FSE I never believe West Yorkshire to Centrebus. York and Leicester seems to pure hog wash.

Secondly I was only give opinion as to who could buy where without trouble since BestWestern started this off with his post,

No, the point is that SIX years ago, people were making all sorts of spurious claims about what could or could not be sold. Now we're back in that bloody cycle of people guessing what could be sold.

Oooh, York.... I could see that going to

• Arriva - they have Selby on the doorstep, OR
• Transdev - they have a York operation already, OR
• Stagecoach - would like a bridgehead and they have the isolated operation at Hull

Or Leicester....

• Wellglade - have a shareholding
• National Express - in the midlands with funds to spare
• Centrebus - already in the area
• Stagecoach - logical extension of Midlands business, running into the city etc

See what I mean - you can come up with 3 or 4 possibles for virtually every OpCo

FWIW, I've been talking to a driver in Bath. He thinks that there's a bloke called Bert Hoskins who runs a minicab business in Westbury on Trym and might be considering a bid for First West of England. Being a bus driver, I can't help but believe that this rumour has credence....

 

[winston270twm]

There still a chances UK bus is sold off to another private equity group or RATP Group or Nettbuss to do as there please?

Where did you pluck Nettbuss from?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Where did you pluck Nettbuss from?

The background of series 4 of "Shetland"

 

[overthewater]

FWIW, I've been talking to a driver in Bath. He thinks that there's a bloke called Bert Hoskins who runs a minicab business in Westbury on Trym and might be considering a bid for First West of England. Being a bus driver, I can't help but believe that this rumour has credence....

If that's the case we need to crowdfund this guy as fast as possible

Where did you pluck Nettbuss from?

There the biggest in Norway, I dare say on par with size of First group, there is already a good amount of trade between UK and norway. Here the point: UK bus could still end up in the hands of one owner, as TGW has said we could come up with 3 or 4 possibles

 

[overthewater]

The background of series 4 of "Shetland"

That made me chuckle.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If that's the case we need to crowdfund this guy as fast as possible



There the biggest in Norway, I dare say on par with size of First group, there is already a good amount of trade between UK and norway. Here the point: UK bus could still end up in the hands of one owner, as TGW has said we could come up with 3 or 4 possibles

3 or 4 Per OpCo - just work out the permutations. That and the singularly p***poor record of people on this board to predict things - yes, people predicted Chester and Northampton but not LONDON.... or Borders, Bracknell, Hereford, Wigan etc....

It's not informed discussion but a parlour game!

 

[BestWestern]

It's not informed discussion but a parlour game!

Well, if you prefer not to play....

The old 'this is a forum, people discuss stuff' chestnut seems to be due a timely airing, there really isn't any need for every other post to be rubbished by the resident grump who doesn't agree with anyone. None of us know what might or might not happen, but speculation tends to be more entertaining than silence!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Well, if you prefer not to play....

The old 'this is a forum, people discuss stuff' chestnut seems to be due a timely airing, there really isn't any need for every other post to be rubbished by the resident grump who doesn't agree with anyone. None of us know what might or might not happen, but speculation tends to be more entertaining than silence!

Yes dearest - I love you too (mwah!!)

#fakenews

 

[Robertj21a]

No, the point is that SIX years ago, people were making all sorts of spurious claims about what could or could not be sold. Now we're back in that bloody cycle of people guessing what could be sold.

Oooh, York.... I could see that going to

• Arriva - they have Selby on the doorstep, OR
• Transdev - they have a York operation already, OR
• Stagecoach - would like a bridgehead and they have the isolated operation at Hull

Or Leicester....

• Wellglade - have a shareholding
• National Express - in the midlands with funds to spare
• Centrebus - already in the area
• Stagecoach - logical extension of Midlands business, running into the city etc

See what I mean - you can come up with 3 or 4 possibles for virtually every OpCo

FWIW, I've been talking to a driver in Bath. He thinks that there's a bloke called Bert Hoskins who runs a minicab business in Westbury on Trym and might be considering a bid for First West of England. Being a bus driver, I can't help but believe that this rumour has credence....

I'm not sure the current scenario is the same as it has been previously. Certainly, for my part, I am making the assumption that First Group shareholders will vote for a buyer/asset stripper to acquire the business outright OR First Group management will finally realise that their time is up and they've run out of options. In either case, I'm assuming that there will be a wholesale break up of the Group into, probably, 4 parts - we tend to be just looking at what would be the UK Bus part. If those circumstances prove anything like what I'm thinking then the pressure to sell off whatever can generate funds could be immediate and ruthless - I doubt that shareholders would expect anything else. That's not the same as in the past when T O'T and Giles might have been pondering what to do with, say, just Potteries or Essex.

 

[Jordan Adam]

So it turns out that Wrightbus are to buy out First Group. Official press statement from the mystical land of Facebook...

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm not sure the current scenario is the same as it has been previously. Certainly, for my part, I am making the assumption that First Group shareholders will vote for a buyer/asset stripper to acquire the business outright OR First Group management will finally realise that their time is up and they've run out of options. In either case, I'm assuming that there will be a wholesale break up of the Group into, probably, 4 parts - we tend to be just looking at what would be the UK Bus part. If those circumstances prove anything like what I'm thinking then the pressure to sell off whatever can generate funds could be immediate and ruthless - I doubt that shareholders would expect anything else. That's not the same as in the past when T O'T and Giles might have been pondering what to do with, say, just Potteries or Essex.

And that is fair comment. As a shareholder, I’m certainly interested to see if Apollo elect to make a bid.

My view, FWIW, is that there is a tipping point and that has been reached. I can’t foresee that First can simply bumble on and even if Apollo don’t follow up with a bid, there is now an expectation that change will come so that some dividend can be restored.

 

[winston270twm]

If that's the case we need to crowdfund this guy as fast as possible
There the biggest in Norway, I dare say on par with size of First group, there is already a good amount of trade between UK and norway. Here the point: UK bus could still end up in the hands of one owner, as TGW has said we could come up with 3 or 4 possibles

And, I take you've been to Norway recently and are just clutching at straws..... 'I dare say on par with size of First Group' as in guessing.....

They are only half the size of First UK Bus with only 3300 buses, which a quick internet search would reveal:
https://www.nettbuss.se/om-nettbuss

 

[overthewater]

And, I take you've been to Norway recently and are just clutching at straws..... 'I dare say on par with size of First Group' as in guessing.....

They are only half the size of First UK Bus with only 3300 buses, which a quick internet search would reveal:
https://www.nettbuss.se/om-nettbuss

Look this well beyond the detailed planning I was hoping for. As i said:

There still a chances UK bus is sold off to another private equity group or RATP Group or Nettbuss to do as there please?

As you said any sell off could be "immediate and ruthless" Rules of the game doesn't mean its will be broken up into parts if someone or anyone wave lot of bank notes in front of any new owner and its saves them time I think there grab the money and run. Point of included Nettbuss was a radom company. We just to we dont know where this is going, anything is now possible, I think people need to widen there minds a bit.

 

[DD12]

Well, if you prefer not to play....

The old 'this is a forum, people discuss stuff' chestnut seems to be due a timely airing, there really isn't any need for every other post to be rubbished by the resident grump who doesn't agree with anyone. None of us know what might or might not happen, but speculation tends to be more entertaining than silence!

The speculation is important to me, because the information in and around the arguments about what can and can't and might happen (etc) in the future, is educational for me - - some gaps in my knowledge get filled.

I have already posted that the INCREASED LIKELIHOOD that First could dispose of my local bus company, COINCIDES with likely imminent changes to where and when, my family and I can or cannot drive our cars (Worcester - Clean Air Zone), and it's very important to me that Worcester has an efficient, reliable, professional bus company.

I would like to know if First, or the next owner, are free to sell the bus garage and parking area, if they so wish ??

(I believe the current site is of major strategic importance for the future of Worcester's buses).

By law, can the city or county council make a COMPULSORY PURCHASE of the site (for continued bus use) ???

 

[winston270twm]

The speculation is important to me, because the information in and around the arguments about what can and can't and might happen (etc) in the future, is educational for me - - some gaps in my knowledge get filled.

I have already posted that the INCREASED LIKELIHOOD that First could dispose of my local bus company, COINCIDES with likely imminent changes to where and when, my family and I can or cannot drive our cars (Worcester - Clean Air Zone), and it's very important to me that Worcester has an efficient, reliable, professional bus company.

I would like to know if First, or the next owner, are free to sell the bus garage and parking area, if they so wish ??

(I believe the current site is of major strategic importance for the future of Worcester's buses).

By law, can the city or county council make a COMPULSORY PURCHASE of the site (for continued bus use) ???

Looking at the most recent accounts, most of Padmore St is Freehold with a nett book value of £1.385 Million (25th March 2017), but FMR Limited also have a Long Leasehold which they pay annual Lease costs of £173k / annum, not sure if they lease the external parking area?

Any part of Padmore St that is Freehold, First or any other future owner can sell as they wish. It can also be compulsory purchased by WCC if the land is required for City Centre re-development / road building etc. I would have thought the land would be a prime re-development site for other uses, Padmore St depot isn't the most atheistically pleasing of buildings....

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

The speculation is important to me, because the information in and around the arguments about what can and can't and might happen (etc) in the future, is educational for me - - some gaps in my knowledge get filled.

I have already posted that the INCREASED LIKELIHOOD that First could dispose of my local bus company, COINCIDES with likely imminent changes to where and when, my family and I can or cannot drive our cars (Worcester - Clean Air Zone), and it's very important to me that Worcester has an efficient, reliable, professional bus company.

I would like to know if First, or the next owner, are free to sell the bus garage and parking area, if they so wish ??

(I believe the current site is of major strategic importance for the future of Worcester's buses).

By law, can the city or county council make a COMPULSORY PURCHASE of the site (for continued bus use) ???

Surely it’s the facts that are important rather than the speculation?

The fact is that First may or may not be broken up. If the latter, then we have already had Rotala, Stagecoach or NatEx put forward as potential suitors for a discrete purchase, or RATP or Nettbuss for a UK Bus sale. Pick the bones out of that - 5 potential purchasers listed in short order!

The idea of a CPO on Padmore Street to preserve its use as a bus depot is, frankly, highly unlikely. The building is of no real historical value to gain any form of listing. Worcester can’t even afford to maintain a Park & Ride so the chances of spending on securing that - probably nil. Remember, a CPO must be for the greater good and pay the market value!

Don’t know who owns it. First have done sale and lease back deals before on property and it would certainly lend itself to redevelopment. Of course, it could simply be replaced by a more modern facility.

I understand your legitimate interests and concerns but such is the lack of any concrete information, don’t know what you can really gain from speculation on FMR. Not much fun for staff either (as has already been alluded to).

EDIT: Winston posted as I was writing!!

 

[DD12]

Looking at the most recent accounts, most of Padmore St is Freehold with a nett book value of £1.385 Million (25th March 2017), but FMR Limited also have a Long Leasehold which they pay annual Lease costs of £173k / annum, not sure if they lease the external parking area?

Any part of Padmore St that is Freehold, First or any other future owner can sell as they wish. It can also be compulsory purchased by WCC if the land is required for City Centre re-development / road building etc. I would have thought the land would be a prime re-development site for other uses, Padmore St depot isn't the most atheistically pleasing of buildings....

Thanks very much Winston for this info, and the other financial info from you, a bit further up the thread !

 

[BestWestern]

Surely it’s the facts that are important rather than the speculation?

The fact is that First may or may not be broken up. If the latter, then we have already had Rotala, Stagecoach or NatEx put forward as potential suitors for a discrete purchase, or RATP or Nettbuss for a UK Bus sale. Pick the bones out of that - 5 potential purchasers listed in short order!

The idea of a CPO on Padmore Street to preserve its use as a bus depot is, frankly, highly unlikely. The building is of no real historical value to gain any form of listing. Worcester can’t even afford to maintain a Park & Ride so the chances of spending on securing that - probably nil. Remember, a CPO must be for the greater good and pay the market value!

Don’t know who owns it. First have done sale and lease back deals before on property and it would certainly lend itself to redevelopment. Of course, it could simply be replaced by a more modern facility.

I understand your legitimate interests and concerns but such is the lack of any concrete information, don’t know what you can really gain from speculation on FMR. Not much fun for staff either (as has already been alluded to).

EDIT: Winston posted as I was writing!!

But there aren't any facts yet, are there? Hence speculation! It's a bit like saying before a footbal match that all we know for sure is Team A will play Team B, nobody could possibly know what the score might be and so it shouldn't be discussed!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

But there aren't any facts yet, are there? Hence speculation! It's a bit like saying before a footbal match that all we know for sure is Team A will play Team B, nobody could possibly know what the score might be and so it shouldn't be discussed!

In football, there are facts and form. DD12 has acknowledged the information provided by Winston.

Informed assessment of facts to predict an outcome vs. guessing is my gripe - you’re still my dreamboat