First Group: General Discussion

[Jordan Adam]

Ah perhaps I have been misinformed. I was told the coaches generate the money which props up the service buses. They have some newer ones coming from aircoach by the looks of it, although not much newer!

The 4 Aircoach Levante's are already here! 23501/2 have been here for nearly a year now gathering dust and 23503/4 arrived recently.

 

[winston270twm]

Ah perhaps I have been misinformed. I was told the coaches generate the money which props up the service buses. They have some newer ones coming from aircoach by the looks of it, although not much newer!

They are early Scania / Levante's now 12 years old that have been worked hard on the NX network for the majority of their lives.

 

[winston270twm]

NX would be my "best possible hope", and I think that First Midland Red employees would agree.
I think the Worcester operation is highly efficient (on paper) and with the new cooperation with Worcestershire County Council (and others), I think it sets an example and model that NX might like to emulate (in places).

I'm surprised Worcester isn't more profitable than their accounts show, then again, we can't be sure what Group are draining from the business. There wouldn't be very many competition concerns with NX, other than the 144 along the Bristol Road, B'ham competing with NXWM's Bristol Rd routes. I'd personally like to see NX acquire both Worcester & Leicester as bolt-on ops.

I guess Stagecoach's nearest bases aren't that far from Worcester with Cheltenham or the routes operating in to Hereford.

 

[Robertj21a]

I'm surprised Worcester isn't more profitable than their accounts show, then again, we can't be sure what Group are draining from the business. There wouldn't be very many competition concerns with NX, other than the 144 along the Bristol Road, B'ham competing with NXWM's Bristol Rd routes. I'd personally like to see NX acquire both Worcester & Leicester as bolt-on ops.

I guess Stagecoach's nearest bases aren't that far from Worcester with Cheltenham or the routes operating in to Hereford.

I think the big problem with operations at Worcester is the routine traffic congestion.

Leicester could always go to Wellglade since they have a 6% shareholding already.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

So this does open up the questions, how will Apollo pay of the debts if its just retains US / Canadian divisions and flogs everything else off? I doubt there could dump alot of the debt onto UKBus?
I doubt UK bus would be sold as one operation, I dont believe Go Ahead, Nat Express, Transdev or Rotala could or would take it all on. Why would a new player turn up to grab the lots with the well know troubles.

It would now be a complete mind field as the TGW points out it really would be pure speculations, on who would buy what and where etc.

I know where I would put my money on when it comes to Nat Express...

Depends on the balance sheet - sale and lease back on properties? Even selling the fleet to a third party and lease back? There are many ways in which they can raise funds and "slice and dice"

I'm surprised Worcester isn't more profitable than their accounts show, then again, we can't be sure what Group are draining from the business. There wouldn't be very many competition concerns with NX, other than the 144 along the Bristol Road, B'ham competing with NXWM's Bristol Rd routes. I'd personally like to see NX acquire both Worcester & Leicester as bolt-on ops.

I guess Stagecoach's nearest bases aren't that far from Worcester with Cheltenham or the routes operating in to Hereford.

Ain't this the problem? We can guess at any one of a number of potential suitors for operations so it really is nigh on pointless trying to work out who might want what?

Also, you are absolutely correct. The annual statements from each OpCo are very difficult to fully assess as central recharges may be rather opaque and then you have inter OpCo adjustments!!!

 

[Surreyman]

Thanks, interesting. My comment really related to the pension deficiencies being corrected only every 3 (?) years, hence the hope for 'cleaner' Accounts for this year. From your comments I guess we'll probably be just as confused as ever !

I assume that whether a complete sale of UK bus or just a part (The less profitable bits) takes place, the question of the UK bus DB pension deficit is going to play a big part (£140M I think), politicians & unions are making justifiable noises.
I would like to think that First Group would automatically use the proceeds from any subsidiary sales to pay down or even eliminate the deficit, which could then be 'sold' to an insurance company, guaranteeing employees pensions.
On a separate note, if the 'less desirable companies' were to be sold at 'Net Asset value', would it not make sense for FirstBus to transfer all vehicles of say less than 6 years old, out of these companies to the Profit makers and in return transfer elderly vehicles back? This would reduce Cap Ex on new vehicles and make the sale of the less desirable companies easier i.e cheaper, after all the new owners would probably want to replace much of the inherited fleets anyway.

 

[Robertj21a]

Sounds like First have announced the closure of Clacton depot, and withdrawal of the local services. Can anyone confirm ?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Sounds like First have announced the closure of Clacton depot, and withdrawal of the local services. Can anyone confirm ?

See #7844 in this thread

 

[GaryMcEwan]

Ongoing incident in Glasgow at the Clyde Tunnel due to an accident a coupe of hours ago...

https://stv.tv/news/west-central/1413709-drivers-warned-avoid-clyde-tunnel-after-first-bus-crash/

Drivers warned avoid Clyde Tunnel after First Bus crash

The collision is believed to have occurred shortly before 8pm on Sunday night.

Crash: Bus crash causes road disruption. Scott McGregor
Drivers have been warned to avoid the Clyde Tunnel following a serious crash involving a First Bus.

The collision is believed to have occurred just after 7pm on Sunday night.

Police and fire crews are in attendance and the road is likely to remain shut for some time.


Drivers have been urged to avoid the area.

A Police Scotland spokesman said: "We are currently dealing with a serious road traffic collision at the Clyde Tunnel.

Sindy Greenhouse
"There are a number of nearby road closures. Emergency services in attendance & the road will be closed for some time.

"Please avoid the area. We will provide updates when we can."

A spokeswoman for the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service added: "We were alerted at 7.08pm on Sunday to reports of a road traffic collision involving a single decker bus.

"Operations control mobilised a number of fire engines to the A814 slip road near the Clyde Tunnel.

"Crews currently remain on the scene working with their emergency service partners to make the area safe."

 

[DD12]

" ..... we can guess at any one of a number of potential suitors for operations so it really is nigh on pointless trying to work out who might want what? "

I think this is a relevant thread for debating "who will get what".
In my original post I expressed my FEAR of Rotala taking First Midland Red (Worcester), and Winston has given me a glimmer of hope for something better.
Also there are several very knowledgeable contributors on this thread (including TGW) who say why "this thing or that thing will or wont work/ happen" ! - - I think it's a great thread !

The consideration, above, of Net Asset Values, is interesting to me, because Worcester has a "reasonable" vehicle age profile, and includes 25 Euro6 buses (so far) --
and IF Worcester declares certain roads and zones to become "Euro6 minimum", that will be another consideration.

 

[Robertj21a]

I think this is a relevant thread for debating "who will get what".
In my original post I expressed my FEAR of Rotala taking First Midland Red (Worcester), and Winston has given me a glimmer of hope for something better.
Also there are several very knowledgeable contributors on this thread (including TGW) who say why "this thing or that thing will or wont work/ happen" ! - - I think it's a great thread !

The consideration, above, of Net Asset Values, is interesting to me, because Worcester has a "reasonable" vehicle age profile, and includes 25 Euro6 buses (so far) --
and IF Worcester declares certain roads and zones to become "Euro6 minimum", that will be another consideration.

And if Worcester doesn't declare any 'Euro6 minimum' zone then they'll probably send those buses off to Glasgow......... Sorry

 

[DD12]

I think the big problem with operations at Worcester is the routine traffic congestion.

Yes -- a serious and worsening problem, and there could be "a few tears shed" when measures start to be taken --
starting with the implementation of the new Clean Air legislation -- but BUSES could be part of the solution !

The revised situation with FIRST likely to sell-off their small bus companies has coincided with the above !

 

[DD12]

I'm surprised Worcester isn't more profitable than their accounts show

My "totally uneducated" reading of the last published annual accounts implies that £1.1M of profit disappeared into the pension fund (?)

 

[winston270twm]

My "totally uneducated" reading of the last published annual accounts implies that £1.1M of profit disappeared into the pension fund (?)

There's a number of things for First Midland Red Limited that jump out as follows:
£5.7 million overdraft (that's 70% of FMR's total turnover)
Share based payments of £1.890 Million (Group Cut)
FMR have a pension deficit of £1.3 million, but it also states near the end that there is no charge made against FMR's profit & loss.

 

[BestWestern]

Aberdeen and Hampshire might have some difficulties with the competition authorities. Interestingly, Leicester should be easy to sell given the profitability, and numerous other operators already in the area.
I wonder if some of the other, less profitable, operations will just wither away (as Northampton) - any local competitor simply has to register new services over the top of First's more profitable routes.

Out of interest, what do you feel might trouble the authorities with Hampshire? Currently Fareham & Gosport is a Barbie monopoly, including the contract for the 'Eclipse' busway, and Portsmouth is primarily First, incuding the Park & Ride contract, with some input from Stagecoach. The battle lines there were drawn many years ago, and Stagecoach largely keep to the ex Southdown territory with First running the ex Corporation and Provincial majority, and neither firm bothering the other. Southampton is largely First but with Go Ahead in on the act with Blue Star. Sale to either Go Ahead or Stagecoach would seem to be an obvious fit, and with Arriva having nothing in that part of the world and, I gather, not doing particularly well themselves, both GA and S'coach showing an interest would perhaps seem likely. GA have been on a strong south coast expansion drive in recent decades, they've just acquired Excelsior of Bournemouth in addition to their existing operations at Metrobus, Brighton & Hove, Bluestar, Southern Vectis and Wilts & Dorset, with Stagecoach marooned in the middle in West Sussex. It would seem southern England is fertile territory for GA, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scoach felt the urge to bolster their presence! That said, the Weymouth arm would be a rather better fit for Go Ahead's Wilts & Dorset than it would for Stagecoach.

On a different note, one would assume that Wrightbus aren't enjoying all of this a great deal.

 

[Robertj21a]

Out of interest, what do you feel might trouble the authorities with Hampshire? Currently Fareham & Gosport is a Barbie monopoly, including the contract for the 'Eclipse' busway, and Portsmouth is primarily First, incuding the Park & Ride contract, with some input from Stagecoach. The battle lines there were drawn many years ago, and Stagecoach largely keep to the ex Southdown territory with First running the ex Corporation and Provincial majority, and neither firm bothering the other. Southampton is largely First but with Go Ahead in on the act with Blue Star. Sale to either Go Ahead or Stagecoach would seem to be an obvious fit, and with Arriva having nothing in that part of the world and, I gather, not doing particularly well themselves, both GA and S'coach showing an interest would perhaps seem likely. GA have been on a strong south coast expansion drive in recent decades, they've just acquired Excelsior of Bournemouth in addition to their existing operations at Metrobus, Brighton & Hove, Bluestar, Southern Vectis and Wilts & Dorset, with Stagecoach marooned in the middle in West Sussex. It would seem southern England is fertile territory for GA, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scoach felt the urge to bolster their presence! That said, the Weymouth arm would be a rather better fit for Go Ahead's Wilts & Dorset than it would for Stagecoach.

On a different note, one would assume that Wrightbus aren't enjoying all of this a great deal.

My main thoughts had been the Go Ahead dominance in much of the South, and involvement in the Southampton area. However, as you say, they aren't around Portsmouth/Gosport so, perhaps, it wouldn't be an issue. Stagecoach wouldn't be an issue in Southampton or Gosport but might raise concerns around Portsmouth. Perhaps - if it should ever come about - it needs a totally different operator to express an interest - Abellio/RATP/Transdev/National Express etc.......

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Out of interest, what do you feel might trouble the authorities with Hampshire? Currently Fareham & Gosport is a Barbie monopoly, including the contract for the 'Eclipse' busway, and Portsmouth is primarily First, incuding the Park & Ride contract, with some input from Stagecoach. The battle lines there were drawn many years ago, and Stagecoach largely keep to the ex Southdown territory with First running the ex Corporation and Provincial majority, and neither firm bothering the other. Southampton is largely First but with Go Ahead in on the act with Blue Star. Sale to either Go Ahead or Stagecoach would seem to be an obvious fit, and with Arriva having nothing in that part of the world and, I gather, not doing particularly well themselves, both GA and S'coach showing an interest would perhaps seem likely. GA have been on a strong south coast expansion drive in recent decades, they've just acquired Excelsior of Bournemouth in addition to their existing operations at Metrobus, Brighton & Hove, Bluestar, Southern Vectis and Wilts & Dorset, with Stagecoach marooned in the middle in West Sussex. It would seem southern England is fertile territory for GA, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Scoach felt the urge to bolster their presence! That said, the Weymouth arm would be a rather better fit for Go Ahead's Wilts & Dorset than it would for Stagecoach.

On a different note, one would assume that Wrightbus aren't enjoying all of this a great deal.

The battle lines were drawn when Stagecoach were told to divest the Portsmouth operation, selling the Portsea Island ops to Transit.

However, speculation on “oooh, I think A could buy B” is all well and good but, if you look at this thread from its inception, has a unerring ability to be bovine!

As for Wrightbus, no manufacturers are enjoying life especially given how new bus orders are down.

 

[DMU180]

The 4 Aircoach Levante's are already here! 23501/2 have been here for nearly a year now gathering dust and 23503/4 arrived recently.

Yes I know that they’re parked in King Street, but they aren’t yet on the road.

 

[Surreyman]

The battle lines were drawn when Stagecoach were told to divest the Portsmouth operation, selling the Portsea Island ops to Transit.

However, speculation on “oooh, I think A could buy B” is all well and good but, if you look at this thread from its inception, has a unerring ability to be bovine!

As for Wrightbus, no manufacturers are enjoying life especially given how new bus orders are down.

As we are all (Idly) speculating on theoretical outcomes, maybe a more pragmatic way of looking at it would be to determine what Can't/Won't take place, So I would say that the the CMA would definitely prevent Stagecoach from acquiring Hilsea(Portsmouth) and, seeing as a sizeable number of buses operating in Portsmouth are allocated to Hoeford(Fareham) that would be also be a no-no.
GA South Coast could not acquire Southampton or Weymouth but could buy Hilsea & Hoeford.
Thats just looking at the South Coast, I won't go on about the rest of the country - although other posters might want to!!
Of course if the disposals do go ahead they might all be bought by some International Finance group.

 

[overthewater]

I would say that maybe Nat epxess could look at Glasgow and Aberdeen. Both would be prefect fits, and both are just like Dundee and Brum. Thus their could just clamp on Dundee to Mr javis. The other part would be West Yorkshire around Leeds.

Go ahead could look at parts of Essex to bloaster its current network. Again arriva and Stephens would still complete with go ahead expanded network. Only other parts could be the south west like Bristol, Devon or Cornwall?

Transdev would they be able to go after York?

Rotla. They would want to stay local so maybe stoke on trent,

I don't think stagecoach nor arriva would bid for anything and it really will be up to the smaller players to Hoover up some of the empire.

Again in this game of roulete another surprise could be around the corner and uk bus could be floated as a sperate company....... With Apollo selling off shares..

 

[winston270twm]

The battle lines were drawn when Stagecoach were told to divest the Portsmouth operation, selling the Portsea Island ops to Transit.

However, speculation on “oooh, I think A could buy B” is all well and good but, if you look at this thread from its inception, has a unerring ability to be bovine!

As for Wrightbus, no manufacturers are enjoying life especially given how new bus orders are down.

Wrightbus have already taken a hit on the reduction of First Group orders, and of those that have been ordered by First, there are now increasing numbers of ADL products being ordered.

Orders for Streetlites seem to have dropped off a cliff since ADL released the E200MMC & the ongoing cuts in new bus investment. To be fair to Optare, it was probably a good move winning that large order from New Zealand. I suspect other bus builders will start focusing more on international markets to fill any spare capacity.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I would say that maybe Nat epxess could look at Glasgow and Aberdeen. Both would be prefect fits, and both are just like Dundee and Brum. Thus their could just clamp on Dundee to Mr javis. The other part would be West Yorkshire around Leeds.

Go ahead could look at parts of Essex to bloaster its current network. Again arriva and Stephens would still complete with go ahead expanded network. Only other parts could be the south west like Bristol, Devon or Cornwall?

Transdev would they be able to go after York?

Rotla. They would want to stay local so maybe stoke on trent,

I don't think stagecoach nor arriva would bid for anything and it really will be up to the smaller players to Hoover up some of the empire.

Again in this game of roulete another surprise could be around the corner and uk bus could be floated as a sperate company....... With Apollo selling off shares..

Look at the first page on this thread (as Dalkeith was closing) and just see what was predicted....

That Chester and Northampton were identified. Ok but....

York to go, Livingston (deffo) or Edinburgh or all of FSE (depending which “roomer” you choose), parts of West Yorkshire to Centrebus, Neath/Bridgend to Stagecoach....

Keep firing the shotgun and eventually you’ll hit something!!!

 

[BestWestern]

As we are all (Idly) speculating on theoretical outcomes, maybe a more pragmatic way of looking at it would be to determine what Can't/Won't take place, So I would say that the the CMA would definitely prevent Stagecoach from acquiring Hilsea(Portsmouth) and, seeing as a sizeable number of buses operating in Portsmouth are allocated to Hoeford(Fareham) that would be also be a no-no.
GA South Coast could not acquire Southampton or Weymouth but could buy Hilsea & Hoeford.
Thats just looking at the South Coast, I won't go on about the rest of the country - although other posters might want to!!
Of course if the disposals do go ahead they might all be bought by some International Finance group.

I'm not so sure they'd be an issue with Stagecoach expanding into Portsmouth, there isn't any noteworthy competition in the rest of the south coast operation from Havant until you reach Brighton. Go Ahead might experience issues I suppose, it'd be interesting certainly!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I'm not so sure they'd be an issue with Stagecoach expanding into Portsmouth, there isn't any noteworthy competition in the rest of the south coast operation from Havant until you reach Brighton. Go Ahead might experience issues I suppose, it'd be interesting certainly!

Apart from already having to divest a smaller part (i.e. not incl the former Provincial ops) in 1990/1 when instructed to do so by the MMC

 

[Robertj21a]

Hedingham has said that they will be operating the Clacton routes once First finish.

 

[BestWestern]

Apart from already having to divest a smaller part (i.e. not incl the former Provincial ops) in 1990/1 when instructed to do so by the MMC

Wasn't that as a result of objections being raised by the then independent People's Provincial, in the era the that less than gentlemanly behaviour was the hallmark of Stagecoach operations up and down the land? It was always somewhat ironic that First were later allowed to successfully purchase not only the former Stagecoach operations that became Red & Blue Admiral, but also Provincial as well, rather turning the tables on Stagecoach. Anyhow, that was a very long time ago now, a modern re-run of the same scenario would certainly prove interesting!

 

[winston270twm]

Hedingham has said that they will be operating the Clacton routes once First finish.

I'm sure other operators will benefit from any First retrenchments, you only have to look at the recent First Manchester Bolton service withdrawals i.e. 468, 571/572 & 575, Transdev Rosso, Vision Bus, Rotala (DBNW) & Arriva all quickly dived in to provide replacement services.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Wasn't that as a result of objections being raised by the then independent People's Provincial, in the era the that less than gentlemanly behaviour was the hallmark of Stagecoach operations up and down the land? It was always somewhat ironic that First were later allowed to successfully purchase not only the former Stagecoach operations that became Red & Blue Admiral, but also Provincial as well, rather turning the tables on Stagecoach. Anyhow, that was a very long time ago now, a modern re-run of the same scenario would certainly prove interesting!

The MMC ruled based on the likely reduction of competition in the area. Given there would be even less competition as there would be no Provincial....

 

[NorthernSpirit]

Transdev would they be able to go after York?

If Transdev got for anything it'll be the unibus routes which may be integrated into the Little Explorer and York City&Country routes.

I can't see them going for the city routes (1, 4, 5/5A, 6, 10/10A, 11, 12/14 & 500) or even the Park & Ride routes (2, 3, 7, 8, 9 and 59). What I do know is that Stagecoach were aiming for the park and rides. So where leaves the city network I don't know unless Connextions fancies the idea of running them, well they did take over the 13 from First in 2014. Either way the York operation is bound to be broken up into three bits.

I can imagine seeing First Halifax being snapped in half too, with the Todmorden outstation being sold to Transdev so that their Rossobus and Keighley operations can be expanded into western Calderdale.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If Transdev got for anything it'll be the unibus routes which may be integrated into the Little Explorer and York City&Country routes.

I can't see them going for the city routes (1, 4, 5/5A, 6, 10/10A, 11, 12/14 & 500) or even the Park & Ride routes (2, 3, 7, 8, 9 and 59). What I do know is that Stagecoach were aiming for the park and rides. So where leaves the city network I don't know unless Connextions fancies the idea of running them, well they did take over the 13 from First in 2014. Either way the York operation is bound to be broken up into three bits.

I can imagine seeing First Halifax being snapped in half too, with the Todmorden outstation being sold to Transdev so that their Rossobus and Keighley operations can be expanded into western Calderdale.

As I said - York to Transdev has only been predicted for the last six years.

Oh, and Chester being sold to GHA!!