First Group: General Discussion

[TheGrandWazoo]

No - but they should remain there until they can be replaced with something that suits the route - there can only be a negative return on investment on these new bus vehicles for the X30

Can you show me any benefit to purchasing over half a dozen vehicles for that route that have less capacity, less luggage storage, by far worse value for money as they charge a premium on other First airport services, even then you may have to stand or even worse be left behind which has led to people abandoning the route and that is before you take into account the loss of potential growth.

Have you seen the prices for the X30 - They charge a premium when you compare it to the Glasgow Shuttle / Bristol Flyer that uses buses rather than coaches - they justified this before because they used coaches, but now they removed the coaches but still charge the same for a massively flawed service.

I don't know anyone who prefers the current set-up to the existing one.


Probably they will - however it still means that someone is going to have to pay to retrofit them to be suitable for the route involved and then retrofit the Enviros back to a city spec and then you have the repainting - when you look at it like this and add up all the costs and revenue loss it would have been far cheaper to have simply bought the right vehicles in the first place.

I'm not playing devil's advocate or anything. Clearly, if they're leaving people behind etc, then something has gone wrong in their use of their existing figures. On paper, it seems like they have increased capacity between Chelmsford and Stansted from 49 to 72 seats per hour - even taking on board your observation that this is reduced because of luggage on the seats, it would still be 60 seats per hour. Hence the genuine questions about how the overcrowding has actually occurred as theoretically (!), it shouldn't happen.

Now the issue is whether

• The base data is wrong
• They've interpreted it incorrectly (so failing the account for peaks in use over the Southend to Chelmsford bit?)
• They've got the take up of the X10 wrong - it isn't absorbing part of the X30 traffic because of the non-clockface timetable - not certain why that can't be sorted anyway
• Has the 30 min frequency increased demand in some manner?

Clearly they've made a mistake. Arguably, they'd have been better off with e400mmc if their consideration was to avoid having coaches left after 8-10 years that they'd struggle to redeploy.

I would disagree that by running the coaches on for 18 months that they would have saved £1m though. Just delays the inevitable.

As an aside, and not saying it's the case here, but there have been several instances that I can recall when services have been recast and new fleet introduced and that growth has suddenly taken off meaning that demand has suddenly outstripped capacity! It's not always the case of poor decision making

 

[F Great Eastern]

I'm not playing devil's advocate or anything. Clearly, if they're leaving people behind etc, then something has gone wrong in their use of their existing figures.

On paper, it seems like they have increased capacity between Chelmsford and Stansted from 49 to 72 seats per hour - even taking on board your observation that this is reduced because of luggage on the seats, it would still be 60 seats per hour. Hence the genuine questions about how the overcrowding has actually occurred as theoretically (!), it shouldn't happen.

Overcrowding even can happen on the section of the X30 which are unique, again this was pointed out to First right from the word go that there was likely to be problems here but they fell on death ears as well as the fact Stansted Airport traffic was booming made it obvious that smaller vehicles were not the way to go and of course the timetable doesn't help with this but it wouldn't fix all the issues even if it was changed.

Some of us thought it was ill thought out when the buses were introduced and it was a matter of time before there would be problems, it gives me no pleasure in saying I was right because I'm a person who has to put up with the crap service there now is. That's before you consider passengers are still paying coach prices for a bus service that you may end up standing on or not being able to get on at all!

Clearly they've made a mistake. Arguably, they'd have been better off with e400mmc if their consideration was to avoid having coaches left after 8-10 years that they'd struggle to redeploy.

I would disagree that by running the coaches on for 18 months that they would have saved £1m though. Just delays the inevitable.

Whatever way you look at is they have spent approx £1m on the vehicles that were not suitable for the service and they will have to spend more money putting it right that would not be spent if they had kept the coaches on and they would have more revenue as well.

What will most likely happen now is that cascades vehicles will be brought in and retrofitted, probably from GreenLine, for the medium term before they have to order something good enough for the route in the next few years. Although if it continues going the way it is the problem will be resolved by a drop in demand.

They could have had cascaded vehicles replace the coaches and save themselves the expense which will probably cost them way more than one million when retro-fitting the Enviros for city work and count the lost revenue.

As an aside, and not saying it's the case here, but there have been several instances that I can recall when services have been recast and new fleet introduced and that growth has suddenly taken off meaning that demand has suddenly outstripped capacity! It's not always the case of poor decision making

Demand on the X30 has increased but it's nowhere near the main issue here - demand has increased by quite a bit less than the capacity has been cut on the X30 and with Stansted traffic booming for the last few years it was not exactly hard to predict.

 

[F Great Eastern]

It's also not like First have never run a service like the X10 before - one ran alongside the full size X30 coaches for a few years.

 

[DragonEast]

I still feel inclined, that if we want an explanation of the recent woes of the X30, we need to look at the X10. This is about making the case for the viability of the X10. It has to take passengers from ("relieve") the X30. It doesn't, and probably won't. Add to that the tunnel vision that sees the X30 as just an Airport Service, it isn't, it is a (perhaps even more) a commuter service, with no direct competition!! Growth is staring them in the face, and they can't see it. First locally can do it, look at the Eastern Counties X1, properly resourced. Though perhaps they had to get rid of the rest of their Kings Lynn ops to do it!

It won't be the first (or last) case of tunnel vision in Essex. When they play the numbers game it seems to as much about the number of routes as the number of passengers! The final point is pricing. We are super-sensitive to being ripped off. The X1 (and I believe Stagecoach X3/5) follow normal bus pricing, so does Arriva's 724 with a supplement for the Airport leg. The X10 and, probably, X30 until Chelmsford are a bus service (suffering the same congestion and delays), add a premium to the Airport if they like (where there is also the 42B at normal pricing as an alternative). But if you are going to charge premium pricing throughout, people will expect premium service. And get very upset if they don't get it. Is it worth the trouble for £2pp?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Overcrowding even can happen on the section of the X30 which are unique, again this was pointed out to First right from the word go that there was likely to be problems here but they fell on death ears as well as the fact Stansted Airport traffic was booming made it obvious that smaller vehicles were not the way to go and of course the timetable doesn't help with this but it wouldn't fix all the issues even if it was changed.

Some of us thought it was ill thought out when the buses were introduced and it was a matter of time before there would be problems, it gives me no pleasure in saying I was right because I'm a person who has to put up with the crap service there now is. That's before you consider passengers are still paying coach prices for a bus service that you may end up standing on or not being able to get on at all!


Whatever way you look at is they have spent approx £1m on the vehicles that were not suitable for the service and they will have to spend more money putting it right that would not be spent if they had kept the coaches on and they would have more revenue as well.

What will most likely happen now is that cascades vehicles will be brought in and retrofitted, probably from GreenLine, for the medium term before they have to order something good enough for the route in the next few years. Although if it continues going the way it is the problem will be resolved by a drop in demand.

They could have had cascaded vehicles replace the coaches and save themselves the expense which will probably cost them way more than one million when retro-fitting the Enviros for city work and count the lost revenue.


Demand on the X30 has increased but it's nowhere near the main issue here - demand has increased by quite a bit less than the capacity has been cut on the X30 and with Stansted traffic booming for the last few years it was not exactly hard to predict.

The overcrowding on the unique section is the exact bit where you question the strength of the data that they made the decision upon, and if they've underestimated growth as well, that is also something to be questioned.

Not certain what cascaded vehicles you would have had to replace the coaches though I suspect that you're not going to be happy unless coaches are on the service.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I still feel inclined, that if we want an explanation of the recent woes of the X30, we need to look at the X10. This is about making the case for the viability of the X10. It has to take passengers from ("relieve") the X30. It doesn't, and probably won't. Add to that the tunnel vision that sees the X30 as just an Airport Service, it isn't, it is a (perhaps even more) a commuter service, with no direct competition!! Growth is staring them in the face, and they can't see it. First locally can do it, look at the Eastern Counties X1, properly resourced. Though perhaps they had to get rid of the rest of their Kings Lynn ops to do it!

It won't be the first (or last) case of tunnel vision in Essex. When they play the numbers game it seems to as much about the number of routes as the number of passengers!

Again, I'd be asking the questions of the data on which they based their decision. With the benefit of hindsight, and making the assertion that they don't wish to be saddled with a number of mid life coaches in 8 years time that they may feel they'll have trouble finding a role for, then maybe they should've back themselves and put in new deckers.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Again, I'd be asking the questions of the data on which they based their decision. With the benefit of hindsight, and making the assertion that they don't wish to be saddled with a number of mid life coaches in 8 years time that they may feel they'll have trouble finding a role for, then maybe they should've back themselves and put in new deckers.

They should have plenty of data - since this is a repeat of what happened in the former life of the X10 as the X40 back in 2010. (details to follow)

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

They should have plenty of data - since this is a repeat of what happened in the former life of the X10 as the X40 back in 2010. (details to follow)

Getting the data is one thing, and then the ways in which it is interpreted and manipulated!

 

[F Great Eastern]

I still feel inclined, that if we want an explanation of the recent woes of the X30, we need to look at the X10. This is about making the case for the viability of the X10.

It has to take passengers from ("relieve") the X30. It doesn't, and probably won't. Add to that the tunnel vision that sees the X30 as just an Airport Service, it isn't, it is a (perhaps even more) a commuter service, with no direct competition!! Growth is staring them in the face, and they can't see it

I wouldn't be surprised at all - it brings us right the way back to the X10 when it was the X40.

When the X30 got it's new coaches because it outgrew the 30 seat Mercedes vehicles that started to leave passengers behind. Those coaches then went to the newly launched X40 which provided 80 seats between them and both had luggage space either under coach or above your head to prevent seats being blocked up.

However the X40 commercially failed and didn't really take many passengers from the X30 at all and such was withdrawn. But even before this the X30 could justify the coaches - even when the X40 ran the X30 would not have been able to have coped with vehicles that provided 30 seats for quite a few departures.

Now it seems what has happened is somebody has had the bright idea to bring the X40 back to life, only this time to reduce the capacity of the X30 by a third and use a bigger capacity vehicle on the X10 vs the X40 in some attempt to force people to use the X10 in a way they simply didn't in the past when they were given a choice.

Of course this takes for no account of the flawed timetable, the unique sections served by the X30 and appears to be an attempt to balance demand between the two services. But all it's done versus the setup of several years ago is take away a lot of capacity from where it is used and shift it to a route where it won't be used.

First locally can do it, look at the Eastern Counties X1, properly resourced. Though perhaps they had to get rid of the rest of their Kings Lynn ops to do it!

There are new vehicles due there soon - interested to see what happens with that!

 

[F Great Eastern]

Not certain what cascaded vehicles you would have had to replace the coaches though I suspect that you're not going to be happy unless coaches are on the service.

The same ones that will end up replacing the current 36 seater buses which will not last the year out unless all the passengers get fed up and stop using the service.

 

[swifty]

Look at the price that First are charging for Chelmsford - Stansted (£10/£15) compared to Bristol Airport (£7/£11) - Glasgow Airport - Glasgow (£8/£12) - the previous justification for the higher prices were that we had a coach rather than a bus no longer apply anymore.

You keep mentioning that the X30 is more expensive because it’s demanded a ‘premium over buses’ when coach operated.

Yet the X30 route from Chelmsford is almost 20 miles to Stansted, whilst both the A1 and 500 are under 10 miles from their respective airports to city centres.

The X30 actually gives you the best value for money at (fag packet maths) 50p per mile (vs 66p on A1 and £1.25 on 500) on fairly similar spec vehicles.

 

[F Great Eastern]

You keep mentioning that the X30 is more expensive because it’s demanded a ‘premium over buses’ when coach operated.

Those are not my words - they are First's words.

The X30 actually gives you the best value for money at (fag packet maths) 50p per mile (vs 66p on A1 and £1.25 on 500) on fairly similar spec vehicles.

I doubt the people who have to pay £10 to stand would agree.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

 

[DragonEast]

(Eastern Counties X1) There are new vehicles due there soon - interested to see what happens with that!

So far EC have been evaluating deckers, even from Essex-based Ensign (and one of the existing vehicles went on trial to the X30. So may be we can work out what their future plans might have been? Although maybe overtaken by events.) Hopefully therefore Eastern Counties have at least got the point! And I suppose, although the current X1 vehicles have been thrashed in terms of mileage; they have, at least, been looked after reasonably well.

 

[F Great Eastern]

So far EC have been evaluating deckers, even from Essex-based Ensign (and one of the existing vehicles went on trial to the X30. So may be we can work out what their future plans might have been? Although maybe overtaken by events.) Hopefully therefore Eastern Counties have at least got the point! And I suppose, although the current X1 vehicles have been thrashed in terms of mileage; they have, at least, been looked after reasonably well.

I would have more faith in First Eastern Counties than I have of First Essex, but then I start to remember that this is First Bus and therefore you shouldn't be too surprised by anything that may happen - I never thought the X40 would come back!

The X1 vehicles could end up coming to First Essex to run the X30 - certainly that is possible, however they would have to be somewhat refitted with enough luggage storage.

 

[overthewater]

What was there before them and how old were they? How long did the new stuff last before being overcrowded?

The route had 57 plate E300, nice and roomy, Nothing special about them but there did the job wonderful. In Late spring 2016 some versa come down from Aberdeen because there got deckers. Versa are 63 plates, leather seats etc, But there smaller in every way, I think there got put out over the autumn service changes in 2016. These versas had been used on the route before in 2013 to allow the E300 to be sent away to get wifi fitted and, even back then it was made clear there crap for the route...

There were warned there were crap but like all the other changes ignored common sense. The problem become clear pretty clear and the older stock started being used again along with any other spare including double deckers... Then the service went back to every 20min. So the route operated with mix stock for I would say year? Until the new buses appeared in December.

Common sense went out the window, instead trying to look cool was chosen instead......

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I would have more faith in First Eastern Counties than I have of First Essex, but then I start to remember that this is First Bus and therefore you shouldn't be too surprised by anything that may happen - I never thought the X40 would come back!

The X1 vehicles could end up coming to First Essex to run the X30 - certainly that is possible, however they would have to be somewhat refitted with enough luggage storage.

Fitting luggage racks to the e400 (and removing them from e200mmc) shouldn't be a major bit of work.

However, whilst I've seen some talk on the X1 about new vehicles (and they did trial an e400 on the X30), have they actually decided upon replacing the 2013 fleet on the X1?

You might think that the ex Green Line machines (already available) maybe a better bet for a couple of years (and they will require a repaint )

 

[darloscott]

Do you know the departure/stance fee for each company at the airports?

Yes I think you will find this is the problem at Stansted. I can't remember the figures but when I went to Berlin in 2015 I stayed two nights at the HIex at Stansted and used their shuttle service, operated by a local company (Bus4Us or something similar?) with E200s. They charged £3 single for a 5 min journey and there was a notice up on the buses explaining why as Stansted Airport charged them something eyewatering like £500k a year to access the bus station.

 

[DragonEast]

Again, I'd be asking the questions of the data on which they based their decision. With the benefit of hindsight, and making the assertion that they don't wish to be saddled with a number of mid life coaches in 8 years time that they may feel they'll have trouble finding a role for, then maybe they should've back themselves and put in new deckers.

My feeling was that was an option, but they were seduced by the prospect of (re)-introducing the X10 with glossy new (but smaller) vehicles across both routes, and the demand could (hopefully) be balanced. Led by the nose by the marketing prospects. It looks good, giving more of Essex a direct Airport link. Though in my experience Airport links work when they run more or less direct (not round the houses as the X10 does, neither competitive on price or timetable). As you say, not so much the data as how you use it. To justify what you want to do, or putting the cart before the horse. (And if Stansted charge eye-wateringly for access then does it help the case spreading the charge over mutiple routes too? - Arriva do the same)

 

[F Great Eastern]

However, whilst I've seen some talk on the X1 about new vehicles (and they did trial an e400 on the X30), have they actually decided upon replacing the 2013 fleet on the X1?

They've been trying out a number of different vehicles over the last few months on the X1 to see what will replace the vehicles currently on it - so an order surely cannot be far off.

You might think that the ex Green Line machines (already available) maybe a better bet for a couple of years (and they will require a repaint )

There's 7 of them right? Although I seem to remember they are a mixture of ages, going back as far as 2009 or as new as 2013 with some in-between.

They've been doing rail replacement work since they've been freed-up.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

They've been trying out a number of different vehicles over the last few months on the X1 to see what will replace the vehicles currently on it - so an order surely cannot be far off.



There's 7 of them right? Although I seem to remember they are a mixture of ages, going back as far as 2009 or as new as 2013 with some in-between.

They've been doing rail replacement work since they've been freed-up.

6 B9s - 3 x 11, 3 x 63

 

[F Great Eastern]

Sure I saw a Gemini 1 liveried up when I was in Windsor late last year?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Sure I saw a Gemini 1 liveried up when I was in Windsor late last year?

There’s an older spare - 58 plate. 3 58 plates were replaced by the 63s - one was kept as spare whilst the others went to FEC.

 

[Non Multi]

There’s an older spare - 58 plate. 3 58 plates were replaced by the 63s - one was kept as spare whilst the others went to FEC.

Indeed there is (Slough depot) : https://www.flickr.com/photos/93036047@N02/38384519655/

 

[Jordan Adam]

At Aberdeen Airport Bus companies have to pay to use the main stance at the door but there's one just over the road from it which is in reality just as close (Maybe 8 metres away ) which is free. Aberdeen is somewhat spoilt when it comes to it's Airport service when you consider the Airport is no where near the size of Edinburgh/Glasgow but neither services are all that good. First's 16 (Every 15 Minutes) is a Park & Ride service not an Airport service, so the buses are not up to spec for an Airport service because that's not what it is but First want to go up against Stagecoach and try and take some of the passengers (Although somewhat failing to do so), But Stagecoach's 727 is quite unreliable and the buses on it are far too slow for the service and can't keep to the timetable (Which most drivers admit is nearly impossible to keep to). Another issue with the 727 is the fares. Instead of having fares that land on the nearest 10P they have stupid stuff like £1.95, while this might not be an issue for the passengers as they give change it's hell for the drivers who have to carry loads of 5p! (As i said to someone the other day, the only reason it's £1.95 is because they want it to be as close to £2 as possible without it actually being £2).

For anyone wonder yes it was the Ex-Commercial Director who shall not be named that was behind the 16 and trying to market it as a Airport service (Which as i said it's not!)....

 

[Robertj21a]

They've been trying out a number of different vehicles over the last few months on the X1 to see what will replace the vehicles currently on it - so an order surely cannot be far off.



There's 7 of them right? Although I seem to remember they are a mixture of ages, going back as far as 2009 or as new as 2013 with some in-between.

They've been doing rail replacement work since they've been freed-up.

I think only 2-3 are going to Essex.

 

[Robertj21a]

The Accounts for First Bristol have now appeared, with a very healthy increase in Operating Profit, from £1.117m (2016) to £4.090m to March 2017. The increase is largely related to gaining a new P&R contract, and reduced costs.

Unfortunately, there is a massive £6m charge to the accounts is respect of another reassessment on the pension fund. Goodness knows just how many £millions in total have had to be found from all the various subsidiaries to make up what must have been a truly massive shortfall.

 

[Cesarcollie]

Is it just Essex accounts missing now?

 

[Volvodart]

Beeline, West of England

 

[Cesarcollie]

Beeline, West of England

Thanks. I'd forgotten Beeline still existed as a separate entity!!

 

[F Great Eastern]

First Northern Ireland as well although you can't read anything into them.

First Aircoach needs an arm to base vehicles, lease premises and hire staff in NI to run the 705X.

This is achieved by contracting the service out to First Northern Ireland.