First Group: General Discussion

[thealexweb]

So what further changes can we expect come 1st April? Or more likely Monday 4 April, when Scotrail controlls finaly disappear from FSE. More cuts? fare overhaul?

I imagine First buses will lose yet more revenue. At the moment Scotrail regularly relies on its own First buses to provide rail replacement buses when it needs them. Why would Abellio go with First? They will go with the best / cheapest provider.

 

[overthewater]

I imagine First buses will lose yet more revenue. At the moment Scotrail regularly relies on its own First buses to provide rail replacement buses when it needs them. Why would Abellio go with First? They will go with the best / cheapest provider.

That wasn't what I was really meaning.

Has any ideas appeared what this years, fleet order will be like for UK bus?

 

[winston270twm]

That wasn't what I was really meaning.

Has any ideas appeared what this years, fleet order will be like for UK bus?

First Group announce Q3 interim management statement this week Wed 21st. I expect new bus orders may be announced with Pre-close trading update on 1st April as Jan as a bit early.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

First Group announce Q3 interim management statement this week Wed 21st. I expect new bus orders may be announced with Pre-close trading update on 1st April as Jan as a bit early.

May be earlier than that. Last year's was announced on 17th Jan whilst 2013 was on 14th Feb - what romantics!!

 

[winston270twm]

May be earlier than that. Last year's was announced on 17th Jan whilst 2013 was on 14th Feb - what romantics!!

I didn't check dates, but I seem to remember one year that new deliveries were already arriving before the group order was announced?

Lets hope they don't announce they are re-instating the dividend on 1st April announcement

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I didn't check dates, but I seem to remember one year that new deliveries were already arriving before the group order was announced?

Lets hope they don't announce they are re-instating the dividend on 1st April announcement

My First Group shares were seemingly bought for comedy value- just didn't know that at the time

 

[winston270twm]

My First Group shares were seemingly bought for comedy value- just didn't know that at the time

To be fair, I never would have expected First Group to end up in the mess it was nore NX Group a few years earlier, how the mighty fall. It always seems to that 'one big deal' Coach USA for Stagecoach, Laidlaw for First Group & East Coast Mainline for NX. I think First group shares are worth buying at current prices, I think they've bottomed and hopefully First Group are finally turning the corner. They've had a fair few set backs, but maybe 2015 will be the year things start to turnaround for them and I'd like to see them show confidence by re-instating a dividend.

It will be interesting to see how many new buses are ordered compared with last year, as First Group have a hole to fill from the loss of rail profits, ideally profits need to grow at both First Student & UK bus at an accelerated rate just to match previous group annual results

 

[Volvodart]

Route One are expecting the new financial year's order to be similar to last year.

http://www.route-one.net/industry/operations/platform-growth-interview-giles-fearnley/

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think Mr Fernly is kidding himself a bit here - speeking as both a passenger and an enthusiast I would say the only good thing theyve done is returning management to a local level. they also need to ensure that new buses are the correct type and size for the areas and routes.

 

[Robertj21a]

I think Mr Fernly is kidding himself a bit here - speeking as both a passenger and an enthusiast I would say the only good thing theyve done is returning management to a local level. they also need to ensure that new buses are the correct type and size for the areas and routes.

Trouble is that, even there, they've not returned management to a truly local level. The local MDs often have to still report through a Regional MD - crazy.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Trouble is that, even there, they've not returned management to a truly local level. The local MDs often have to still report through a Regional MD - crazy.

Not that crazy. Decision making is devolved to local management but is it realistic for all of those managers to report into Giles? It's about reporting not decisions or else each month, Giles would be spending half his time dealing with each of the MDs.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think Mr Fernly is kidding himself a bit here - speeking as both a passenger and an enthusiast I would say the only good thing theyve done is returning management to a local level. they also need to ensure that new buses are the correct type and size for the areas and routes.

To be fair, you're probably in the area of least change. In Bristol and the West, the change is really pronounced. Since 2012, had a reasonable investment in new fleet and refurbed a lot more. New fare structures were introduced and now fighting back against various firms who came in to compete. New routes and other innovations too. It's a long way from perfect and the mess left from Moir was always going to take time to sort out.

That said, I think the article was more about having completed the initial stabalisation (stopping the rot) and now looking to move forward. However, it's only when we see new vehicles appearing in the most archaic fleets that some will recognise the most tangible of benefits- oh, and restoration of the dividend

 

[Robertj21a]

Not that crazy. Decision making is devolved to local management but is it realistic for all of those managers to report into Giles? It's about reporting not decisions or else each month, Giles would be spending half his time dealing with each of the MDs.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If it was just reporting then I'd agree but it's also seeking authority to progress issues. Senior managers need to be given proper authority to get on with matters in their own area - slim reporting lines are far more efficient (as are empowered MD's).

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If it was just reporting then I'd agree but it's also seeking authority to progress issues. Senior managers need to be given proper authority to get on with matters in their own area - slim reporting lines are far more efficient (as are empowered MD's).

To be honest, they have autonomy but as with all reasonable businesses, there are natural authority limits. Giles can't manage every decision and local managers can't have carte blanche to do whatever they want. It's a balance but it's a mile away from the central diktats of Moir

 

[overthewater]

I agree, First has turned a conner. Alas and this is the main point, all companies are only as good as its weaklest link, and for UK bus is First Scotland East.

For the past three years as many have said, Giles has been sorting out the core asset, and the big city areas, but has yet to properly deal with its weaklest link.

It was claimed and counter claimed, plans were drawn up to sell of the operations, but for what every reasons its got shelfed.

I did ask Jeroen Welmar and Tim O'Tool whats actully plans etc to try and sort out the weakest operation in its company. Basic reply was "We dont know" this sums up the problem, no one knows what to do.

To be fair UK bus did test run a number of new ways of running its depots at FSE. IE Blue print for growth, along with its depot transformations, well if it can work in a crappiest depot then etc...

So, whos been left to clean up this awful mess? The local management team, which is filled with Scottish bus group people. Realistically I don't know, but thier have same real challaneges ahead of them to sort out once and for all.

But the hatred is pretty stronge with the public, and one has to wonder if its all far too late.

 

[overthewater]

A rumor is going around in relation to the new fleet renewal order. Only 5 double deckers are on order for this year.

 

[Volvodart]

There are 39 going to Bristol at least.

 

[smtglasgow]

A rumor is going around in relation to the new fleet renewal order. Only 5 double deckers are on order for this year.

As ever, would be interesting to know where Overthewater's rumours are coming from. Volvodarts comment on the 39 coming to Bristol have been well-documented and reflect the new MDs aggressive efforts to boost capacity. The South Yorkshire Transport Forum, which appears very clued up on South Yorkshire's ops seems to be sure that new deckers are on the way for the X78.

For me, the most interesting aspects of this years orders - whenever they are officially announced - will be signs of new vehicles going to some of the black sheep. The lack of investment in Leicester seems bewildering to an outsider, while the Potteries 'appear' to have turned a corner with their new network and surely need another injection of new stock. I'd expect Hampshire, Essex and Berkshire to see more investment, and obviously there will be something for Manchester and West Yorkshire. We already know that Glasgow will get another 43 Streetlites.

Interest times, but we should know for sure within weeks

 

[Robertj21a]

As ever, would be interesting to know where Overthewater's rumours are coming from. Volvodarts comment on the 39 coming to Bristol have been well-documented and reflect the new MDs aggressive efforts to boost capacity. The South Yorkshire Transport Forum, which appears very clued up on South Yorkshire's ops seems to be sure that new deckers are on the way for the X78.

For me, the most interesting aspects of this years orders - whenever they are officially announced - will be signs of new vehicles going to some of the black sheep. The lack of investment in Leicester seems bewildering to an outsider, while the Potteries 'appear' to have turned a corner with their new network and surely need another injection of new stock. I'd expect Hampshire, Essex and Berkshire to see more investment, and obviously there will be something for Manchester and West Yorkshire. We already know that Glasgow will get another 43 Streetlites.

Interest times, but we should know for sure within weeks

Potteries need a large intake before December in order to oust non-DDA single deckers. At least Leicester already has an all-DDA fleet.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

We should only have a few more weeks til all is revealed. The inside line at Bristol has already indicated the 39 new deckers (more than I had envisaged) and there will be a focus on replacing the non DDA single deckers but also some later Olympians (susceptible to chassis rot).

A number of non-DDA vehicles have or will be modified to meet DDA requirements (e.g. FEC B7TLs, BoS B10BLEs etc) - possibly another c.450 new vehicles (?) but guess we'll see how many and where?

I'd expect healthy numbers still into West Yorkshire and there's still a bit to go in Cymru. With Leicester, you could see some new fleet there, allowing some cascades that will join new vehicles to upgrade the Potteries fleet. I'd also expect some modest arrivals for some of the provincial fleets such as First Eastern Co/Essex and Wyvern - in fact, most places other than FDC/BoS - might just be a bit early for them but here's hoping I'm wrong!!

 

[overthewater]

I just say what I hear. Mind you I'm glad I said something since you three loverly people have given out some very helpful information, so thank you.

 

[Deerfold]

I just say what I hear. Mind you I'm glad I said something since you three loverly people have given out some very helpful information, so thank you.

Care to share where you hear this sort of thing?

 

[overthewater]

Care to share where you hear this sort of thing?

Odd question; from people, forums, etc the normal way people hear these sort of things.

 

[Volvodart]

At least some of Glasgow's Enviro500s are going to Aberdeen to replace the older artics in the summer, so I assume Glasgow will be getting some double deckers.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Odd question; from people, forums, etc the normal way people hear these sort of things.

Perhaps a little more investigative rigour would be worthwhile

A lot of stuff on forums is people expressing opinions and speculation (which is in itself fine) but some opinion is either taken as fact and some stuff is just patently wrong

 

[overthewater]

At least some of Glasgow's Enviro500s are going to Aberdeen to replace the older artics in the summer, so I assume Glasgow will be getting some double deckers.

Crumbs, is that actully happening now? That rumor has been floating around since ealry last year. I hope Glasgow does get new deckers now.

Perhaps a little more investigative rigour would be worthwhile

A lot of stuff on forums is people expressing opinions and speculation (which is in itself fine) but some opinion is either taken as fact and some stuff is just patently wrong

One has to wonder if people just say stuff, just to get to the actully truth? I've notice people are more likley to get a reply, doing it that way. Mainly because other people jump down their throats.

 

[Volvodart]

Crumbs, is that actully happening now? That rumor has been floating around since ealry last year. I hope Glasgow does get new deckers now.

At least it is more accurate than your rumour that Glasgow are not getting deckers until 2016.

 

[overthewater]

At least it is more accurate than your rumour that Glasgow are not getting deckers until 2016.

You just said, so i assume..... It can't be both ways.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

One has to wonder if people just say stuff, just to get to the actully truth? I've notice people are more likley to get a reply, doing it that way. Mainly because other people jump down their throats.

So people peddle untruths in order to uncover the truth...????

Nah, I think it's more a case of presenting fiction as fact, and then there's stuff that's demonstrably wrong - sale of Bolton depot? sale of Cumbernauld?

Also, there's the "I was talking to a driver...." so inaccurate canteen rumours get repeated.

 

[Deerfold]

Odd question; from people, forums, etc the normal way people hear these sort of things.

I don't think it's at all odd to question where a rumour comes from (especially such a surprising one) - I often despair of what people I know post on facebook et al without checking if there's a hint of truth about it.

 

[Robertj21a]

I don't think it's at all odd to question where a rumour comes from (especially such a surprising one) - I often despair of what people I know post on facebook et al without checking if there's a hint of truth about it.

Quite agree, rather frustrating.

I've posted 100% accurate information on groups etc and been taken to task for it ! Only with the passage of time can it be seen that my information was actually correct all along.