First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

See if First were to sell Bannockburn and/or Larbert, whichever depot runs the 38/X38, then presumabely the new owners aren't required to keep the routes at their existing frequencies/routes?

Bingo, the same goes for Livingston, new owners can do what there like.

No44 was also controlled.

 

[robertclark125]

That, in a weird sort of way, could make them attractive to potential new owners. They could buy them, make changes, and possibly make money.

 

[overthewater]

That, in a weird sort of way, could make them attractive to potential new owners. They could buy them, make changes, and possibly make money.

OR Maybe First are trying to hold out to next year when there will lose Scotrail, If there win it again, I can see something having to give.

 

[tbtc]

Seems surprising that First can make a better return in the rural Borders than in the "commuter belt" around Livingston.

Granted there's rail competition in West Lothian and the layout of the "New Town" is designed around the private car (though Stagecoach do okay in Glenrothes), but surely there's scope to run a proper profitable service in the old Eastern Scottish area?

 

[overthewater]

Seems surprising that First can make a better return in the rural Borders than in the "commuter belt" around Livingston.

Granted there's rail competition in West Lothian and the layout of the "New Town" is designed around the private car (though Stagecoach do okay in Glenrothes), but surely there's scope to run a proper profitable service in the old Eastern Scottish area?

It should be a GOLD mine, with the big industrialist estates, Call centres, a busy major hospital and huge shopping complex. The design of the town is no reason for the current mess.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It should be a GOLD mine, with the big industrialist estates, Call centres, a busy major hospital and huge shopping complex. The design of the town is no reason for the current mess.

I think that was my point. It should be lucrative (and was in ES and post dereg SMT days). First have neglected it (as with Northampton) but perhaps they will get to grips with it.

I remember the strength of ESOL in mid Lothian (all dark green Ailsas and Fleetlines) and it still staggers me how they cocked it up.

Didn't know X37 was a controlled route so thanks for that info.

 

[Surreyman]

Back in 2004 when first won scotrail, a lot of people were unhappy and stated first would reduced parallie bus routes. To stop this oft/cc put in place controlled routes.on many long haul routes. Over the years first has managed to reduced the list as it claims there lost money. First has lost on a few and thus some are still in place including fig 31. Fse, 27/28 x37 x38 x39.

I will get a link to all the documents later on.
#################################

This is the lastest: http://www.competition-commission.o...possible-changes-to-scottish-bus-undertakings

http://webarchive.nationalarchives....g.uk/inquiries/completed/2004/first/index.htm

Here are some route First has gotten rid off, because there made losses, form 2009
http://www.oft.gov.uk/shared_oft/mergers_ea02/2009/First_Scot.pdf

I do found it strange some people still never know about this clause in connection with Scotrail.

Thanks for the explanation.
It makes it highly unlikely that Stagecoach would want to bid for Scotrail as they would almost certainly have similar restrictions placed on them.

 

[Deerfold]

Thanks for the explanation.
It makes it highly unlikely that Stagecoach would want to bid for Scotrail as they would almost certainly have similar restrictions placed on them.

That rather depends on what they think the potential profits from the rail franchise are - most transport operators in the UK make more from their rail than their bus divisions where they have both.

 

[tbtc]

It makes it highly unlikely that Stagecoach would want to bid for Scotrail as they would almost certainly have similar restrictions placed on them.

It depends on whether Stagecoach think that the services they have which parallel train routes (10 from Aberdeen to Inverness, X7 from Aberdeen to Dundee, X77 from Glasgow to Ayr, share of Citylink/Megabus market etc) are going to be fairly settled in the long term.

Stagecoach seem better at leaving routes alone (once profitable), rather than tinkering with them (other than when circumstances change, like the new P&R at Halbeath which they are altering services to run to).

 

[winston270twm]

It depends on whether Stagecoach think that the services they have which parallel train routes (10 from Aberdeen to Inverness, X7 from Aberdeen to Dundee, X77 from Glasgow to Ayr, share of Citylink/Megabus market etc) are going to be fairly settled in the long term.

Stagecoach seem better at leaving routes alone (once profitable), rather than tinkering with them (other than when circumstances change, like the new P&R at Halbeath which they are altering services to run to).

Don't forget even going back a few years pre- First Group taking over Scotrail, NX group were forced to divest Scottish Citylink when they had the franchise

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Don't forget even going back a few years pre- First Group taking over Scotrail, NX group were forced to divest Scottish Citylink when they had the franchise

Too true. Sold it to ComfortDelGro, IIRC.

With their share in Citylink now and the geographic spread of Stagecoach (probably greater than First's and with more longer distance routes), it might be more of a problem for them to have Stagecoach than anyone else!

 

[F Great Eastern]

Is Jeroen Weimar still COO at First? He hasn't tweeted for a month

 

[overthewater]

Is Jeroen Weimar still COO at First? He hasn't tweeted for a month

He is still around, he retweeted something on the 16th this month, I dare say he has a lot of paper work to get done.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Too true. Sold it to ComfortDelGro, IIRC.

With their share in Citylink now and the geographic spread of Stagecoach (probably greater than First's and with more longer distance routes), it might be more of a problem for them to have Stagecoach than anyone else!

I just cant See Stagecoach selling off Megabus to anyone else.

 

[robertclark125]

I think there's more chance of stagecoach acquiring Livingston depot than there is of them gaining Scotrail. Besides, their Megabus network, and the new Gold version, Citylink Gold, are actually, according to a Buses magazine article, preferd by a few people to the train.

 

[Polo Mint]

Didn't Tim O'Toole say that some bus divisions didn't receive any offers, or that the authorities may be a barrier to sales?

I can see the group keeping Bannockburn(Stirling) and Larbert(Falkirk) and maybe Balfron, but not sure about the garages in the Lothian area. Perhaps just a steady withdrawal with Lothian Buses picking up the slack?

 

[overthewater]

I can't remember if he said that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
How is the York network working out?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I can't remember if he said that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
How is the York network working out?

Was there the week before last. Hard to say without being on each and every route, but the impression was that the ridership looked healthy and the ex FSY deckers were in evidence. The new livery is appearing though the P&R machines were looking a bit scruffy

 

[overthewater]

Thats good to hear.

This page has since disappared Not sure how long this will be kept up for, so be fast!

http://webcache.googleusercontent.c...ws/service_updates/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

 

[winston270twm]

First Groups Interim results are due to be announced this week Wed 6th Nov

Hopefully, we may start to see some of the improvements being made in the large core fleets starting to ripple through and benefit UK bus division’s profitability

If we do start to see positive signs in the numbers, I'm hoping it may boost the share price to get out of its current trading range of 115-125p

 

[overthewater]

I do believe we will see improvements in Large core operations, thankful the Non core "in the red" operations will be whitewashed.

 

[winston270twm]

I do believe we will see improvements in Large core operations, thankful the Non core "in the red" operations will be whitewashed.

Small percentage improvements at the large core bus operations will add far more to the total division's profit than the loss makers lose, most of the loss makers are generally fairly small operations.

The interim's may prove quite hard to see how well on-going operations are performing, as they will still include 3 months with & 3 months without First London as they should run from 1st April - 30th Sept

 

[mbonwick]

True, but I expect those invited to the Q&A session after the results are announced will be pretty keen to know the with/without London split, so we should be able to get some idea...

 

[winston270twm]

True, but I expect those invited to the Q&A session after the results are announced will be pretty keen to know the with/without London split, so we should be able to get some idea...

They may even present the figures without London's contribution to illustrate how UK bus is doing minus London, at the end of the day all the analysts/shareholders are interested in the on-going operations of UK bus........

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

They may even present the figures without London's contribution to illustrate how UK bus is doing minus London, at the end of the day all the analysts/shareholders are interested in the on-going operations of UK bus........

Very true Winston. Might interest some enthusiasts (and the competition!!) but in the cosmic vastness of First (America, Rail etc), the idea that a hedge fund will be concerned about the margin at one small bus operation (e.g. Plymouth) is rather fanciful.

They're bothered about overall, broad brush figures and trends.

 

[winston270twm]

Very true Winston. Might interest some enthusiasts (and the competition!!) but in the cosmic vastness of First (America, Rail etc), the idea that a hedge fund will be concerned about the margin at one small bus operation (e.g. Plymouth) is rather fanciful.

They're bothered about overall, broad brush figures and trends.

Exactly,

But as London was quite a large unit, its partial inclusion/exclusion could distort the figures if they don't present it in certain way

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Exactly,

But as London was quite a large unit, its partial inclusion/exclusion could distort the figures if they don't present it in certain way

Absolutely. Hence why I expect exceptionals to be highlighted and this will be one such event

 

[winston270twm]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/10426263/Activist-investor-takes-FirstGroup-stake.html

 

[overthewater]

I wonder if any shocks will appear tomorrow.

 

[winston270twm]

I wonder if any shocks will appear tomorrow.

No shocks,
All generally sounds pretty positive and heading in the right direction, there is a long, long way to go though......
Can't see any mention of any further disposals in UK bus, but note that they quote that Scotland is still hard going due to economic conditions

 

[overthewater]

Im not surprised there is a drop in passenger numbers, the amount of cuts that were made in both Central belt companies meant millage would be down.

If you withdraw alot of routes to a certain area and then redeploy them else where to boost other areas, of course we will see a drop.

Of course there still dont know what to do.

The pace and approach being taken to fares and network changes is deliberately tailored to local market conditions, and in many areas will be an ongoing process. For example, we overhauled our network and fares structure in Glasgow in May following considerable consultation, supported by widespread marketing.

However the macroeconomic environment in that city remains tough with the percentage of economically active people falling in the last 18 months by around 5%, compared with a modest improvement across the UK as a whole.

We therefore have further work to do, although we are encouraged by the volume trends on those city centre routes where significant changes have been introduced. Scotland remains a challenging market overall, with retail footfall for example down by as much as 5% in recent months compared to last year.